Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

Lucreto

Sounds like I should start bring my work laptop home from next Thursday in case it actually does snow.

Working from home options this time around would take the stress out of deciding to dare to make the trip or not.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949024#Comment_119949024

That was awful ! Not sure if you would get home

Pretty much full time at home now so looking forward to it!

Supercell

@Kermit.de.frog you know what you need to do?? 😋

fits

I’d love a bit of snow but also wouldn’t mind if it didn’t with the price of energy and the war etc. lots of people sleeping in tents in the country these days.

we are heading north in February anyway - will be the kids first remembered experience of snow - if it doesn’t come here before then.

Cork2021

I’m not going to comment on the FI thread but feck me the negative posters in there would drive you to the drink! One OP run has them crest fallen! Cold is on the way, let’s hope it stays cold and dry and snows from the 23rd of December until new years!

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950991#Comment_119950991

Those posters are always like that, not sure if they're trying to use reverse psychology or if they're just miserable guys.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950995#Comment_119950995

I think it’s a mixture of both to be honest. Either way it’s one run see how we get on later

konman

Great to see some members back on boards again (FI THREAD) that havent been active in ages.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951276#Comment_119951276

With this in mind, does Blackbriar/George Sunsnow still post on this forum?

Danno

Well after the 12z today, a few might have taken to the sup. After the 18z, they'll be on the shots! :D

Calibos

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951295#Comment_119951295

He's had another name change since 2018’s George Sunsnow, had a look in the Jan 2022 Snow thread and our favourite Arklow Farmer poster has deleted that newer account too. We wont know who he is now until he starts posting about the Snow trains on the Horizon viewed from the hills around Arklow next week. LOL.

..or am I mixing up peoples alter-egos?

Oscar Bravo

A nice dry day here in Castlebar. Cool,but little or no wind . Grand to be out and about

Rock Lesnar

Rotten morning in my area of meath, wet, feeling fairly cool, and cloudy.

SleetAndSnow

Not posting this in the technical thread because its a rain chart that I saw on NetWeather, which are never to be trusted this far out, and im honestly not sure how to explain why its happening so hopefully somebody else can! At least we would be able to see our Neighbours having fun lol. Would it be due to the cold being just that bit too far east? Battleground type scenario?, if I am reading the charts correctly

sryanbruen

I was giving off quite a pessimistic tone in my last winter thoughts post. By and large these thoughts remain the same as sea surface temperatures are still above average but at the same time, something interesting and rare has developed since. That is we have had what is called (unscientifically) a bottom-up split. Unlike a major sudden stratospheric warming where we see downwelling from the stratosphere to the troposphere, this is where the opposite happens where we see a blocked atmospheric pattern at the surface upwelling to cause a split in the lower stratosphere. This could have not been foreseen on this scale, the MJO forecast showed the possibility of a blocked late November to early December period. This has been slightly delayed but nonetheless is on track. Generally, there is a consensus right now for a cold and wintry period from middle of next week to mid-month around the 15th-17th then a relaxation of the cold, blocked weather before a renewed push closer to New Year due to the progression of the MJO. However, I must admit I am only echoing what some particular people have said.

The other interest is there are some small signs of some minor warming occurring aloft higher up in the stratosphere at the same time around mid to later in December. Reminder the stratospheric polar vortex is set to be stronger than average at this level whilst we have a blocked lower stratosphere and a blocked troposphere. A warmed up higher stratosphere whilst we have the latter too, now what could that mean? We wait and find out.

Then we also have a complex storm or depression around the Azores by days 7-9 which could either undercut the blocking and send mild air towards our way or alternatively, models could be overblowing the low and it could swing to our east forcing the relatively cold, slack northerly pattern to continue through the latter part of the second week of December. These lows always a headache to forecast, literally always. They could go any way.

We need to cut down on the 2010 comparisons. 2010 was a historic period. We are unlikely to match it in our lifetimes for longevity as well as severity combined. Mentioning it creates unrealistic expectations. 2022 will be 2022.

There remains a lot of warmth in the atmosphere and the sea. The cooler period should start to cool down both to some extent but to see anything significant, the cold needs to be prolonged. I think we'll need a second attempt to look out for that.

I am still firmly on the fence for it all, to be completely honest. Let's chill on the toy throwing as well as the hype.

Danno

Was coming out of Kilkenny City this evening just at darkfall and a few splodges of sleet on the windscreen.

igCorcaigh

Whatever about the prospect of snow, it's the ice and the cold that are the killers. Drivers will need to SLOW DOWN, and keep an eye on your elderly neighbours over the next few weeks.

Niall145

Instant flashbacks to the RTE guy falling on ice video lol

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119953973#Comment_119953973

You are so right, actually brings me out in a cold sweat thinking about cold spell ahead. I have a long commute on some dangerous country roads and always black ice on them.

So for all of your praying for cold weather please think of us and also elderly who unfortunately are very vulnerable to falls in bad weather.

This year so far has been great, not even one icy morning.

If its going to snow then I'd prefer it to be like Beast from East so everything closes and we can all stay at home.

John.Icy

Bang on Sryan. Sums up some of my thoughts.

Aside - Irish sea clearing its throat today and this evening. Maybe a big performance to come within the next two weeks ? 🤔

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119953973#Comment_119953973

Its more than elderly neighbours that need an eye kept, unfortunately. There are people falling into fuel poverty now that would never have dreamed of such a thing happening.

The typical cost of running gas central heating, LPG heating, or oil fired CH averages out now at about 11 quid for 5 hours of use, for a typical 1200 sq ft house, of average age, with middle of the road level of insulation. Thats 300-350 quid a month for what you might call sparing use.

Imagine a 1960s or 70s house, with crap insulation, maybe a couple of minimum wage earners with kids schooling to pay for. 7,8,900 quid a month?? Not beyond possibility.

A period of deep cold, whether dry and frosty or snowy and icy, is going to jeopardise lives. Simple as that.

Yes, there is aid available from community welfare teams to help with these bills, but how far will that help go? And what of the most Irish of failings, pride. How many people won't go asking for help, because a) they've never had to before and b) they will not be seen doing so in their local town?

The Government have run a very prudent exchequer through and since Covid, tax takes are absolutely massive. They absolutely must find a simple way of distributing the hundreds of millions of surplus to cover the energy costs of almost anyone, with the very simplest and discreet way of applying for that help.

Stay safe everyone and please help any others you can, with bills and with buying solid fuels, without fuss or favour. Because the Vincent de Paul and the Community Welfare are simply not going to be able to keep up.

We are a rich and charitable Country, let's demonstrate it once again.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954465#Comment_119954465

I have been thinking that if a big cold spell hits that surely the gov will have to give more towards the cost of energy bills to people. If they don't they would surely come under intense pressure to do so. Could a big cold spell potentially bring down the government if they were to do little more???

Sorry mods if off topic buts it's been something that's in the back of my mind if we were to get a significant cold spell this winter.

Just to add energy companies will surely be shamed for their greed for putting peoples lives in danger if a big cold spell hits. Dont want to sound ott but that's the truth of it. Don't blame the weather blame greed!!!

.Donegal.

Frost setting in now cloud cover has cleared. Met Eireann forecast sleet for hills in the east today.

M.T. Cranium

The recent historic snowfalls in Buffalo NY USA came about when suitably cold air spread over Lake Erie running 13-15 C after a previous warm spell kept readings from dropping much. Now the Irish Sea is generally around 12-13 C and if "suitably cold air" manages to reach Ireland later next week, there's some potential for heavy snow too. I noted that thicknesses for the BUF event were generally between 510 and 516 dm and Toronto (not in the snow belt zone) had daytime temps of -2 C which was within 1-2 deg of record low maxima. The lake modification kept temperatures at BUF around -1 C. This may give some indication of what will be needed to turn the mixed wintry aspects of the streamers (very likely at first) to turn over to mostly snow as in Nov-Dec 2010.

I read sryanbruen's post and generally agree with him so that saves me some typing. The Azores depression looks like it could be a named subtropical storm at some point later this week. It won't retain that structure much beyond the western Azores and looks likely to weaken while a second low of more northerly origins appears poised to challenge the cold after it over-runs Ireland. Results of all that are of course mostly speculation, perversely the GFS is much better at depicting first signs of warm spells than ten-day cold spells, I think we all remember a few largely phantom GFS cold spells like the one for late Jan 2021 that never happened. This one is going to happen to at least a partial extent, I believe, but coming up against warm waters in Irish Sea and southern North Sea, considerable air mass modification is likely and this often becomes what I call a thickness sickness (your 522 turns into a 528 etc). Given the social situation I am not going to be a cheerleader for wintry synoptics (off with my head) but if it happens, it happens, be prepared either way.

SleetAndSnow

Showers from the east coming into cork city now off the Irish sea, if only it was a bit colder!

KingJeremy

In Castlemartyr and it is bucketing rain, whereas the weather app showing my home town in sth east Co Galway says full sun 🙈

mcburns07

.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119954970#Comment_119954970

Living nearby, awful morning. Cold rain 😓

.Donegal.

Nice sunny frosty morning.

Oscar Bravo

A beautiful morning here in the west with long spells of sunshine. Light to moderate easterly wind.

Cork2021

Grand day here in North Cork, dry and cool. Ideal weather, sick of the rain