Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814006#Comment_119814006

On the 18z still looks like the high will drift off up towards Greenland but a few days later.

Cumhachtach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814047#Comment_119814047

See that now. 16 days away, what could possibly go wrong 😊

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119811788#Comment_119811788

Yep. Moderation in all things please!

The really "funny " thing is that when we DO get eg heavy snow, there is sheer chaos when these folk realise how hard it makes even walking to the gate. And cities grind to a halt...

Lovely to look at but.... The ferryman was telling me about the last snowy winter when the boats filled up with snow..

And thanks for reminding me to check my shopping list and cupboards ....

Orion402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814347#Comment_119814347

It is said that humans went out to discover the moon, but ended up discovering the Earth instead-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OgLCH7jYp8&t=41s

During times when the weather here is quiet or miserable, there is always room to take a more expansive view of our home planet as presently the North pole turns deeper into the dark hemisphere of the Earth as a component of a larger view where the planet turns once to the Sun as a function of the orbital motion of the Earth. The North pole was located on the planet's divisor on the September Equinox-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Space_Climate_Observatory#/media/File:EpicEarth-Globespin-tilt-23.4.gif

There always times for spectacular weather events and like them just as much as anyone else yet the offer is there to appreciate what makes winter possible and why storms appear more likely in our region in winter than when the Earth is another position in its circuit of the Sun.

I wouldn't see it as an either/or choice between weather and planetary motions which cause seasonal changes, sometimes one is more appropriate to consider than the other depending on whether things are busy or quiet on the weather front so they are complimentary hence they belong in both a weather forum, a solar system research forum or indeed many other others.

Nabber

First snow in Moscow yesterday.

Only a matter of time till it reaches us 🙃

sryanbruen

First of many wacky charts to come from the ECM this morning showing a big evaporative cooling rain to heavy snow event on 15th Nov. This is not gonna happen or extremely unlikely if one is to be pedantic. EC is infamous for overdoing evap cooling.

This probably should have gone in FI charts or autumn discussion but ah well.

Loughc

All I read was SNOWMAGGEDON confirmed for Nov 15th. Thank you @sryanbruen

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119844457#Comment_119844457

Casting my memory back to December 10th 2017 and that was a memorable and large cooling rain to heavy snow event. Unfortunately many in the east missed out owing to marine air mixing in - however after you got more than 30 miles or 40 miles inland it was a winter wonderland for many in the midlands and inland west.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119844675#Comment_119844675

The Wicklow mountains did great from it, the elevation made all the difference that day on this side of the country. There was a northerly prior to that though, EC in comparison is southerly and then westerly with a deep low and cooler air on its northern side. It reminds me of 19 November 1996 which gave an early taste of winter to some and a deluge for Dublin.

Here's a lovely video from 10 Dec 2017 at Lough Tay.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTTgW5uwn9U&t=1s

snowstorm445

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119844675#Comment_119844675

I remember it well, travelled back from Cork to Dublin the day after and the snow cover fizzled out somewhere between Kildare and Laois. First time I think most of Ireland had seen snow on that level since 2010, to be fair.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119844698#Comment_119844698

Indeed there was a northerly on the Friday before (8th) so cold air was lurking just to the north, so the slider low (NW to SE) didn't shift it away and instead dragged it in over us once the low slid SE.

Quite a gradient on the 850s that night with +5c over the far SW and -2c over the NE!

tiegan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119844662#Comment_119844662

^^^ this!! Where's Kermit??

sryanbruen

Who remembers the ECM 106cm snow depth from last November near Danno's neck of the woods? 😂

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119844805#Comment_119844805

Still waiting for that! Perhaps the ECM got the year wrong and it's for 27th November 2022!*

* grasps at straws

Hooter23

Those charts in about a weeks time do look like they could change alot and go from just wet and windy into potential full blown storms..we'll see sure only a matter of time anyway

amandstu

Is there any end in sight to this spell of warm air coming up from the South that has brought us so much rain over the past month or more?

Is it all to do with the jet stream getting suck in place?

M.T. Cranium

About all we could suggest is that the very mild spell will gradually transition to near average temperatures after mid-month. GFS temperature projections are generally in the range of 8-12 C daytime hours by then, and near frosts returning at night. Personally I don't think there is much hope for truly winter synoptics until some time in early to mid December (if even then), there likely won't be any 2010 style pattern reversals on that same time scale. However, this is supposed to be autumn not winter so might as well keep any wintry potential for the coldest months, right?

By the way, I have full-on winter here, we were running very warm to 20 Oct then the pattern flipped to cool, followed by this snowstorm we just had yesterday (25 cm on ground), now it's below freezing at noon here, and partly cloudy. We went from being a month later than normal to a month earlier, in just three weeks.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119850001#Comment_119850001

Partly the jetstream but mostly because the Azores high keeps getting 'stuck' nearby which keeps patterns remaining in place for a prolonged period. This time, it is (or will be) in over Europe which will keep the warm air pumping over us:

Niall145

That weather chart makes me want to punch the computer screen

Cork2021

We should be transitioning to cooler weather now, the only real true season we seem to have anymore is summer and that’s a push. The other 3 haven’t a fecking notion! Possibly 16/17 degrees on Friday the 11th of November that’s nuts, I’m sure back in late May we hardly broke 12/13 degrees the weather was that bad

Hooter23

People that lived in ireland a long time ago actually only had 2 seasons for the whole year...and they are right because thats what its like...it was probably 9 months of the year winter and 3 months of so called summer if youre lucky

PokeHerKing

Land of eternal winter as the Romans said

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858731#Comment_119858731

I thought these islands were considered to be among the easiest countries in the world to do manual work in.

This seems likely to be accentuated in the coming years as global warming increases further.

We should pity our fellow Europeans (and other countries) who may have to suffer heat , drought , hurricanes earthquakes ,pollution and wildfires over the coming years (as well as periodic floods)

We are surely lucky overall even if the present month plus long spell of weather is indeed of no use to man nor beast

OwenM

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-polar-vortex-cooling-event-update-cold-anomaly-winter-season-influence-fa/

Just wondering what people think about this? SSW events more likely, also no indication of how long this cooling effect might last, years or decades?

KingJeremy

Would be great to hear from some of the knowledgeable members on here what they think of this ⬆️

May not be a popular opinion but I would love a guarantee of some colder and more seasonable weather in the horizon

highdef

Very interesting article alright and it tallies up with the unusually cold and wet conditions recently experienced in summer hemisphere countries, particularly in parts of Australasia. This would in some ways explain the unusually warm conditions in the northern hemisphere during the same period. Generally, the overall temperature across the whole planet remains fairly static, when averaged out. So if a large area of the planet becomes cooler due to a vast area of water vapour preventing solar radiation from reaching into the lower reaches of the atmosphere, one could expect a corresponding area of the planet to warm up, in order to keep the overall temperature stable.

The problem with this theory is that it is not man-made "climate change" so doesn't fit into the climate-change agenda therefore it most likely won't get much media attention. It's not desirable that the population could think that the unusual weather of 2022 was caused by natural causes.

I for one would like the media to latch on to this report and for it to gain traction. Would be interesting to see where it goes! I may have a chat with some people who could make that happen ;-)

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875094#Comment_119875094

Do you take us for thickos?

Of course there are natural events that influence the climate as well as anthropogenic warming.Get up the yard with your "climate-change agenda"

We are the agenda that climate change has on its agenda.

If only climate deniers were the first species to become extinct.

A very interesting and detailed article (but too hard for me to follow-even the graphs are not easy to follow) but I note the conclusion is "watch this space " and not "hey,we got a new theory"

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119857494#Comment_119857494

Actually not the case,the last 30years have been the wettest in several centuries, less rain/moderate levels, drought not unusual.

Decent weather the norm

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875579#Comment_119875579

I'm certainly not denying that climate change is not a thing. Climate naturally changes over time, we know that. What I meant is that the theory suggested in the article suggests that a lot the highly unusual weather across the globe during 2022 can be attributed to the water vapour release into the atmosphere as a direct result of the volcanic eruption of Hunga Tonga. If the article is to be believed (and it seems rather plausible), then it would mean that a lot of media reports of unusual/extreme weather events during 2022 that were reported as being directly caused due to human kinds interference, were in fact false information. I'm not saying the media outlets were knowingly spreading false information (if this article proves to be correct at some point) but it would be a significant contribution to the general awareness of climate change.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875670#Comment_119875670

You are clearly trying to hang your hat on a phenomenon that "plausibly"allows you to downplay the consequences of anthropogenic climate change.

"I'm certainly not denying that climate change is not a thing".

give me a break

We can have both anthropogenic global warming and impactful natural disruptions to the climate at the same time.

Anthropogenic global warming is ongoing and will detrimentally affect our climate for as long as (and after) we continue to put these gases into the atmosphere.

I don't know the climate science behind the Tonga eruption but that article shows that it is being studied ,and not in some partisan way to change public opinion which would backfire if that was done to any serious extent.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119814785#Comment_119814785

I don;t view any weather as " miserable"... Living deep rural/island for decades changes the view... Hence my understanding of what Saint Francis writes. An integral and valid and essential part of our lives to be befriended and understood.

Thelonious Monk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875708#Comment_119875708

Pretty sure the experts on here have many times proved how man is not affecting the climate, you must be new lol

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875708#Comment_119875708

Sorry now @amandstu - but a response like that just smacks of downright condescendence. @highdef is very correct to look at the broader picture of what is causing some pattern changes to the weather this year as opposed to just taking the quasi-religious approach/doctrine that humans, specifically western world ones are totally at fault and no other explanations are necessary.

A proportion of the regular posters on the Board Weather Forum have throughout the years discussed weather events at length and the broadly share thoughts are that humans are causing some climate change with natural variations making up the rest. This is no more correct or incorrect than the incoherent ramblings spouted by the media in recent years.

Having a sceptical eye on this topic is healthy and any "science" worthy of the title should be more than happy to have scrutiny applied to it. Sadly though, I see the reality is the opposite with any scepticism being actively being quashed and terms like...

If only climate deniers were the first species to become extinct.

...suggests that the apparent "science" around Climate Change is not as certain as is being advocated, and thus the stock action is to snuff out anything contrary to that narrative. This is very similar to how cults and dodgy religions work.

Not something to be really proud of, eh?

highdef

Cheers @Danno

Indeed, @amandstu, I think you're missing my point. What I'm saying is that the report in the first post in this thread is about the large naturally caused water vapour "cloud" circling the southern hemisphere, which looks to have resulted in much lower temperatures than normal there due to less solar radiation reaching the lower atmosphere/ground level. The report indicates that this vast area of water vapour may well be the primary cause of the unusual weather in many parts of the southern hemisphere since earlier this year. It may also be at least partly responsible for the unusually warm conditions in many parts of the northern hemisphere.

My point was that all the unusual weather conditions in the past several months that have been reported on mainstream media were attributed to climate change caused by humans when it's very possible that the Hunga Tonga eruption is at the very least partly responsible for the extremes of weather seen throughout much of 2022, post volcanic eruption. Based on the information within the report (and assuming it's correct), then the Hunga Tonga eruption may well have been the key contributor to the reasons for a lot of the extreme weather experienced globally during 2022, post eruption.

It's always best to step back and look at the broader picture and to be able to accept new information that you may or may not initially agree with, for whatever reasons. Putting yourself in a silo where you believe that the primary cause of climate change during 2022 is occurring because of mankind and not accepting that it could be due to natural events would be unwise and not prudent. If the Hunga Tonga eruption is the reason for most of the extremes of weather seen this year, then what we would have been seeing over the past several months is a temporary blip in our usual weather rather than an actual major change in global climate. Classifying all of the unusual weather this year as being caused by humans and not accepting that it could be due to natural events, even when evidence may suggest otherwise, would be foolish.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877724#Comment_119877724

I doubt anyone is doing that except in your head(and the "mainstream media" of course</sarc>)

This is off topic.Bye.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877795#Comment_119877795

You're very unclear at to what you're referring to in your first sentence, maybe you can clarify as I don't want to draw my own conclusions or make assumptions but if I don't hear back, cheerio.

Graces7

Winter is in the wings.. waiting.... It will come soon enough. It does not answer to any other voice or summons. Simply when and how ... Terms like EARLY or LATE are meaningless which is a part of the mystique and mystery of a temperate and variable cimate. It will come when it comes. Gently or rumbustiously! That is part of the beauty of it. Free ranging... Tonight that deep intense silence... Breathtakingly lovely.

ZX7R

First snow of the season for me

IMG-20221118-WA0003.jpeg

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119889733#Comment_119889733

Enjoy!

Parts of the USA are getting pummelled with snow at present...

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1593675338663530498?s=20&t=XB0xdhR0gcslU6xz2-9xNA

Hopefully it won't fire up the jet stream across the Atlantic and spoil our cooler more settled (less unsettled) spell.

ZX7R

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119891800#Comment_119891800

I am eastern Poland.

There long range forecast is for a back ended winter ,southern Poland is expected to be Colder than average and higher than average snowfall. Northern Poland temperatures to be average of above and dryer than average.

The kids enjoyed it ,but I don't enjoy as I use too.

Not like in Ireland when I'd be lamppost watching different when you have to work in it.

Graces7

A wintry chill and it speaks its intentions with an ominous sporadic intermittent HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWL. Werewolf song

Not ventured outside yet.. if the wind is as I think it is getting to the gate and back will be.. Or WOULD be.

For me with my North of England raising and life, November is winter.

And today is wild and chills . Stay warm! Or wind walk if you enjoy that! I may indulge later..

West Mayo offshore refuge

Cluedo Monopoly

It's cold now for sure but I cannot get over how little stove fuel (mainly timber) I have used so far this autumn. I filled the shed by July and I have hardly touched it. A very very mild intro to the winter. The mildest in my recent memory.

lapua20grain

My heating only went on yesterday for the first time since last winter. Nice low gas bill up to now.

Gonzo

The long term models are pointing towards a fairly mild December overall but there is a chance that December could be a dryer month than what we've been used to over the past couple of months. If high pressure was to set up over us during December this could deliver frost and fog and fairly low temperatures on the surface despite upper air temperatures milder than average. The next 2 weeks continue to look Atlantic dominated but there is a chance things will dry up and quieten down around the 1st week of December, fingers crossed.

Rather than wishing for a cold spell with snow in December, I think it's more important we dry the land out first, we really do need an extended break from all the rain. Temperatures have also been extremely mild to warm for the most part up to now, would be good to get some clear, dry and frosty weather going in December which would be quite seasonal in it's own way. The sea surface temperatures around us are also higher than usual for the time of year after such a warm year and hot summer, we need those to cool down too over December. Hopefully by January if we get a proper cold spell that the seas around us will have cooled down a fair bit and the land dried out a bit.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119893069#Comment_119893069

It has been wonderul not needing to light the stove. Today is I think the third time.. I paid for ten bags of coal way back when it became known that it was going up in price and now it will last months.. it is cold in the wind today. A bitter bite to it.

sryanbruen

Okay, time for a well overdue update on my thoughts for winter 2022-23. The lack of such posts from me is not because I have been busy but due to the fact that there is nothing clear to steer my thoughts in a particular direction. Here's why.

We may be in a La Niña phase of the central Pacific Ocean for the third year in a row in terms of sea surface temperatures. However, the atmosphere this autumn and especially through November has been much more El Niño-like with regards to the MJO. El Niño composites of past years are much more in line with how this November has panned out than La Niña. There has been basically zero mid-Atlantic ridging this November, it has all been troughing whilst any ridges have been to our east in varying latitudes. This does not give much hope for confidence in any forecasting or any of the seasonal models because the modelling has been very strongly reflective of how a typical La Niña winter progresses with any tendency for -NAO earlier on in winter (November with the highest tendency) whilst +NAO (February with the highest tendency) later. What a mess.

There has been a significant cooling in the North Atlantic where the troughing has been centred for most of the autumn and is much more in favour of +NAO than it was looking at the start of the season when I did my initial thoughts where the Atlantic was in an unprecedented warm state since 1851. The colder SSTs combined with the continuing warm SSTs elsewhere will only help intensify areas of low pressure in theory.

There's always the added complication of an intensifying stratospheric polar vortex at this time of year, nothing new there. If the SPV strengthens and sets up over Greenland, there's little hope for blocking to get going. There does not seem to be an increased chance of a major sudden stratospheric warming event relative to climatological norm.

Most of the seasonal models are going for an anticyclonic winter with month to month variation in the placement of the ridge - December having the highest chance of a chilly or cold month with increased risk of frost and fog compared to norm whilst February mildest with more of a Euro high as low pressure returns to Iceland. The models sometimes pick up good trends like 2019-20 and 2021-22 but can also fail to a spectacular degree like 2018-19 and I would not be surprised at all given the circumstances set out this autumn that this winter will be one of the latter rather than the former.

It only goes to show the weather will do what it wants and nothing is set in stone. I haven't done a seasonal forecast since summer 2019 and I don't intend to bring them back.

Danno

Upstate New York is getting tons of lake effect snow 😍

https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1593765537535836160?s=20&t=VQeGRGhDDT3tQvutTuF_vA

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119894197#Comment_119894197

Blame global warming:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/paradox-lake-effect-snow-global-warming-could-bring-great-lakes-more-it

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119894496#Comment_119894496

Long time since I heard global warming mentioned - it had mysteriously morphed into climate change and now climate crisis and also spawned a new offspring called climate justice.

M.T. Cranium

The weather pattern out this way is very unusual, almost no rain even in coastal regions in what is usually about the wettest portion of the wet season, so dry in fact that brush fires have continued to occur in parts of BC. In my area it has been very cold and dry with snow on the ground, in contrast to the usual damp and mixed-precip sort of regime we get, often lasting well into December before it gets this cold. Nearby Spokane WA has a running anomaly of about -4 C to date. The cause is a stationary ridge of high pressure in the upper levels sitting just off the west coast or sometimes on the coast, so there has been a persistent northerly flow into central regions. Eastern regions of N America started off with record warmth to about the 12th, after which it has turned progressively colder. The most similar analogue (which is also a good one for Europe) seems to be 1938. This opens up the possibility of some cold and snowy intervals as early as mid to late December. That unusual situation in the southern hemisphere probably makes this a very tricky year ahead for long-range outlooks, as that water vapour anomaly could gradually work its way across the ITCZ and affect our hemisphere, but the science on all that is sparse to non-existent. It's a different question, but the Krakatoa dust veil appeared to have a lag time of 1.5 years in terms of its maximum impact on the northern hemisphere, late winter of 1884-85 showing the largest impacts.

There have been a number of significant extremes in European weather in 2022 so it would not surprise me if some aspect of the winter became extreme too.