Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995016#Comment_120995016

The Russian military have not done an "excellent job". One of the world's largest armies, they greatly outnumbered Ukraine. On paper, every analyst had them taking Ukraine in days to weeks. They failed, due to Ukraine's extraordinary defence, and also because the Russian military is bad in terms of quality and combined arms.

Their aim was to take Ukraine in a short period, which failed. They failed to hold everything East of the Dnipro, they were then unable to take and hold Donbas and they are losing their gains in Bahkmut. They are currently losing ground to a military with basically no air-force.

The key things stopping Ukraine are the massive minefields and defence in depth. If they (Ukraine) had gotten the equipment they needed on time, and earlier, it's likely Russian would be in a worse situation now.

The "Western media" repeatedly pointed out the specific difficulty of the counter-offensive and realities of attacking into these prepared lines. I pointed it out multiple times. (not to be confused with Ukrainian optimism).

And if Russia continue to bleed the Ukrainian numbers at current rates, they may eventually decide to take even more territory in the future.

Prisoners and 50 yr old men with 5 days training are not very good at taking territory. Any monkey can however operate artillery, and that's how Russia makes it's gains, they sacrifice low quality soldiers while pounding with artillery and using quantity. As we've seen, it's slow and doesn't make much progress. In terms of tactics, the Russians are learning, however in terms of quality they are only going downhill.

It might not solely be a question of Ukraine breaking through, rather the Russian military becoming of such low quality they simply can't function properly. There are already large cracks showing.

I don't expect much land to exchange hands this year, but am quietly optimistic that the Russians will continue to suffer high attrition and show more cracks. Going to the front-line is considered a death sentence for them and every day now we see groups of Russian troops openly complaining of conditions, and mil bloggers constantly complaining that morale is terrible. That's before F16s and ATACMS hit the battlefield.

Put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised if we even see partial collapses of the Russian military on their own behalf.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995016#Comment_120995016

I mean, the bollocks that is this post is fascinating.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995016#Comment_120995016

They've not done an excellent job of anything day 520 + days in to the 3 day invasion of Ukraine,

But Ukraine hasn't exactly gained much despite the counter offensive heading to the 4th month and winter is rapidly approaching which will leave everything at a standstill,and the EU has still only managed to deliver 200,000 artillery shells of 1 million promised for 2023 ,and NATO stores are running low on available kit to send to Ukraine being the majority of exsoviet equipment has already been sent and very little of that has been replaced so far , which means that there won't be large donations flowing like we saw over the last 18 months unless it comes from the Americans

beggars_bush

Looks like Wagner's Prigozhin won't be taking any private jets anywhere anymore

Didn't take Putin long to sort him out

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121017983#Comment_121017983

Confirmed by the Wagner group's telegram channel and according to unverified video/rumours it was shot down (one wing only on the plane as it was falling down but in one piece beyond that). Below from CNN.

A plane which matches the profile of an Embraer Legacy 600, is seen falling out of the sky with one wing missing, according to video published by Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti. 

CNN is unable to confirm the authenticity of the video, but RIA Novosti claimed it was the moment that an Embraer jet fell from the sky in the Tver region of Russia. 

The plane seen in the video appears similar to Embraer Legacy 600, a match to an aircraft registered to Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. Its paint is dark and the engines — two almost boxy ovals — are set far back near the tail. 

It's seen falling in the video in one piece; there's no indication of a catastrophic explosion in the body of the plane. However, as the plane twists, there appears to be only one wing still attached. 

It is evident that the plane is out of control as it spirals downward.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121017983#Comment_121017983

Utkin is also dead, it seems. He of the 'SS' tattoos.

fly_agaric

I thought he (Prigozhin) was safe...suppose maybe he believed so himself (?)

Read this interview a few days back and in fairness he was right:

https://www.ft.com/content/03f220e1-6a7e-4850-bf4e-4b0f521d8f8c

Among other interesting bits in it:

Having so far apparently let Prigozhin off the hook, doesn’t Putin now look weak? “Putin went on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor,” Grozev replies. “Everyone knows what they do with ‘traitors’ and Putin hasn’t done that. He wants to see him dead. He can’t do that yet. In six months Prigozhin will either be dead or there will be a second coup. I’m agnostic between the two but I can’t see neither of these happening.”

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121022589#Comment_121022589

I cannot understand why Prigozhin exposed himself and his most senior ‘advisors /@ assistance in such a public way. He must have forgotten the continuous advice here on boards to KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS OfF ALL TYPES - including airplane windows. Once Putin calked him a traitor , he was - very, very, very clearly - a very, very dead man walking. Even before that statement , it was only a matter of time anyway once he started to march on Moscow.

Field east

For the survival of the structure that rules over Russia - and the USSR back then- there can be only one individual who IS THE LEaDER. He must be seen as A STRONG MAN - I every sense. And in order to preserve that status he must be ROUTELESS whenever challenged - o matter how inocuous the challenge is. This would include assassinations, poisoning, long prison sentences, etc, etc. this STRONGMAN leg of the communist philosophy goes back over 1000 years to the Mogul era. So was Prigozhin not aware of this? And no matter what Putin promised/agreed with him - directly or indirectly via Lukachenko - he should have known that he was A DEAD MAN WALKING anyway and should have been watching his EVERY STEP

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121036725#Comment_121036725

From what I've read (and by definition it's at best second / third hand information) it was due to Putin making moves on Wagner group (the company) and he rushed back to try to keep control of the company and and it's assets. Of course he should have kept a better check on what was loaded on the plane (rumour is the bomb was in a case of wine).

Economics101

Boris Johnson had just one good aspect to his career: his strong support for Ukraine. CNN has a report on a recent piece by BoJo on the death of Prigozhin.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/27/world/boris-johnson-oped-wagner-yevgeny-prigozhin-putin-intl-hnk/index.html

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121036959#Comment_121036959

Johnson is up to his absolute eyeballs in Russian money.

No politician in the UK done more absolute hole sucking of Putin and the oligarchy than Johnson did.

Facts and history don't matter to Johnson though.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121036925#Comment_121036925

Yes, and it was loaded at the last minute, the plane had already been checked with sniffer dogs, and cleared. So its not the case of lack of vigilance on Prigozhin's part. Some one got in under the radar....now if only the same thing happened with Putin!!!

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121037178#Comment_121037178

I don't think Vlodomyr Zelenski would agree with you..

Guffy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121037178#Comment_121037178

What do you base this on? Ukrainians seemed to be very sorry to see him go.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121037627#Comment_121037627

Well he won't say it out loud right now. But when this war is over history will remember that the likes of Johnson spent the invasion of Crimea and Donetsk trying to ensure that London remained a major money laundering hub for Russian oligarchs.

As mayor and then MP he done more that most to ensure that Londongrad was well looked after.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121037669#Comment_121037669

What do you base that on ?

Do you have a survey of Ukrainians or something. UK involvement in the war hasn't changed since he left.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121037178#Comment_121037178

It's almost the whole Tory party that was kind of rotten that way, not just Boris Johnson!

Over this period of Conservatives in charge, the UK has taken an amoral "money has no smell" attitude to business and investments in both the party themselves, and in the UK.

Despite all that in fairness, UK was quite hawkish as regards giving military aid to Ukraine, and they were fast (along with the US) to supply "light" anti tank/anti aircraft weapons and things when they decided (correctly) that Putin was definitely going to invade.

I wonder if the correct admin. had been in power in the US (i.e. Clinton, not Obama and not Trump - she had Putin's card well marked) they might have been persuaded/pressured to do more in period 2014-2022, possibly sever the Russian money links despite what it would have cost the City and the Tories? Anyway all idle speculation, sorry.

Guffy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121037693#Comment_121037693

Well yes here is a poll that took a couple of min to find published in June 22 showing BJ having 90% popularity amongst Ukrainians.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/06/my-new-polling-from-ukraine-russia-and-11-neighbouring-countries/#more-16764

I recall it being a point at the time amongst a number of Ukrainian and Ukrainian based journalists, as they were unsure if his successor would support them to the same degree.

The fact that the UK have continued their support for the war is mute.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121040031#Comment_121040031

The UK certainly done the right thing once the war started but Johnson saying things like below really pi$$es me off

"I cannot think of another example of such ostentatious and uninhibited savagery by a world leader – not in our lifetimes,”

“The mask is now fully off. Putin stands exposed as a gangster, and his absurd televised ‘tribute’ to the dead Wagnerites is straight from the pages of ‘The Godfather,’”

We knew all this about Putin way back when Johnson was publicly fellating him and the oligarchy.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121040201#Comment_121040201

So a poll by a Tory peer says the Tory PM is popular. Wow.

I wonder do they see Sunak as less favourable or are they just as happy with anyone giving them guns.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121040426#Comment_121040426

The UK were training and supplying Ukraine in a significant way well before the 2022 invasion.

Field east

The removal of McCarty as house leader is serious for a number of reasons - one of them being the continued support or otherwise of the war inUrr. Has any boardie out there have any thoughts on who might be acceptable to the house and would continue on current policy towards UKr and might even enhance it

swiwi_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192040#Comment_121192040

Shît’s getting serious when McCarthy is misspelled on an Irish forum…

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192542#Comment_121192542

What part of Lixnaw are you from - North or South of it !!!!!!!!!!?

swiwi_

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192687#Comment_121192687

I’m from the south. Different island though.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121192040#Comment_121192040

Don't have a clue (not very helpful - ha!).

I mean only following it sporadically, but I thought he contorted himself quite a bit trying to satisfy the MAGA/pro Trump element and even at times the kind of "Putin Caucus" infesting the Republicans, and it was not enough to save him.

Suppose like all extremists maybe they will only accept one of their own loopers running the show, and getting their way 100 % of the time.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121200338#Comment_121200338

As long as that "one person can bring a vote" rule is in place then it will continue to be a shambles.

Hard to see any one GOP candidate actually managing to stop 6 GOP members from voting against them any time soon.

And certainly any Potential candidate indicating that they support continuing funding for Ukraine will definitely have at least 6 loons that will vote against them.

Field east

The Demos continue to be reactive as if it is in their DNA. Would they not see themselves as having the power on deciding on who the speakers will be- a one that they can do business with. After all the Rep have the majority in the house and the Demos should play them to its advantage OTHERWISE they will get nothing done. Being seen to be really trying to find a solution to the present debacle might help in the President election

fly_agaric

Found 1 article about it from yesterday on BBC. As above, seems like it may be difficult to agree a replacement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67004970

A disturbing symptom of the political instability in the US, which is damaging their govt.'s ability to focus on anything at all beyond their borders in the wider world (even something as important as Ukraine).

The US is just getting very "flaky", not good for their allies and friends at all (like us) [or the state of the world in general].

Field east

Not since WW2 has the WORLD been at such a serious crossroads re war. The Cuban standoff might challenge - mainly because of the nuclear element. Russia and some Islamic states have a very different attitude to war re killings and death of combatants. Absolute vile hatred of the opposition further fuels some of these clashes/wars. Islamic soldiers are driven by their religion - opposition are infidels and therefor must be killed if they do not change to become Muslims. , you become a martyr if you get killed for fighting a ‘religious ‘ war and of course the the 40 virgins waiting for you in heaven

. The Russians have another take. Putin has such power that the general population is forced to join the army when requested and life is not worth living - for him/her and family- if they do not report for duty. Russia has no problem with war /conflicts as long as it weakens the west and causes international problems in general. It has got its tentacles stuck all over the place.

so, Russia is involved , internationally, in a lot of conflicts - UKr being the latest + election interference in some Baltic states- which suits its agenda and the broad Islamic family of nations see the Israeli/Hamas conflict the beginning of something that could take off if stoked

m2_browning

This seems like a better thread than Current Affairs one to discuss the political implications of the 100bn trap Biden is creating for Republicans with the new bill he is drafting that keeps leaking to Reuters daily

of which 60 is for Ukraine, 10 is for Israel and remainder is for Taiwan and the “border security”

It really puts republicans in a bind if they vote against it especially with elections coming up as then they can be hammered as anti Ukraine, anti Israel, Anti Wall, Pro “China”