Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Brussels Sprout

Mod Note:

If you're new here, please read the charter carefully before posting, especially the guidelines in posting links in lieu of arguments and being able to subtantiate the points you're making. If you're posting here because you've been banned from posting on this topic in other forums, think carefully before you post. Continuing in the same vein is likely to yield the same results.

Threadbanned:

@olestoepoke

@bobowen

@[Deleted User]

@[Deleted User]

@mcsean2163 

@CalamariFritti

There hasn't been a thread on this topic in this forum. There's a very active one in the Current Affairs/IMHO forum but easily 80% of the posts in it are posters taking pot shots at each other and not debating the topic. It's become increasingly difficult to wade through the posts there to read anything meaningful.

The current situation is as follows:

1. In recent weeks Russia has moved somewhere in the region of 130k troops and military hardware to the northern, eastern and southern borders of Ukraine
2. Putin has issued a list of 9 demands to NATO including that Ukraine never be allowed to join as a member and that NATO withdraws troops from existing NATO members that border Russia.
3. NATO has outright rejected these demands
4. NATO has warned that an attack by Russia on Ukraine is imminent
5. Russia has denied that they plan on any attack even as they accumulate more and more troops on the border - which they say are there for war games.
6. Citing intelligence of an imminent attack many western countries have advised their citizens to leave Ukraine. the USA is moving their diplomatic staff from Kiev to the western city of Lviv
7. World leaders have been flying in to meet both Putln and the Ukrainian president Zelenskyy in recent days and weeks
8. Earlier this week Russia announced that they were going to some remove troops from the border region.
9. The USA have said that in actual fact even more Russian troops have arrived
10. In the past 24 hours there have been cyber attacks, serious shelling within Ukraine and diplomatic expulsions
11. Joe Biden has claimed an attack will happen in the next few days
12. Anthony Blincken has said that they expect some form of fals flag attack to be carried out by Russia as a pretext for attacking Ukraine
13. Vladimir Putin has suggested that western claims are hysterical and has continued to state that Russia do not wish to attack Ukraine

I think that's about where we're at. I tried to stick to the facts as best as I could.

Personally I have gone backwards and forwards on whether I thought an attack would happen. Today my feeling is that there is now so much momentum that something is going to happen. I'm not 100% sure of what that will be. Events seem to be accelerating and I don't think they're going to slow down.

amacca

Thanks, was wondering why there wasn't a thread here where a person might learn something..

I've been flip flopping on the likelihood of it happening myself....with limited knowledge

I thought no for the longest time on the basis putin can probably achieve a hell of a lot by threatening but not actually doing but I'm not so sure now.

Anyone know how much pressure he may be under internally? .... is this to stave off challengers or distract the public....is it giving in to pressure from within to do something about NATO from the Russian military etc

Has he marched himself up a hill there's no coming down from?

Brussels Sprout

Anyone know how much pressure he may be under internally? .... is this to stave off challengers or distract the public....is it giving in to pressure from within to do something about NATO from the Russian military etc

On the face of it he doesn't appear to be under any pressure internally. He's been in power for 22 years. He has a submissive media and a neutered opposition. He has created a vertical power structure that means that nobody in his party has anywhere near his power and those closest to him tend to be long term loyalists whose relationship with him, in many cases, stretch back decades.

At the same time his regime has been more repressive in recent times then at any period in the past two decades. His biggest critic, Alexei Navalny, has been locked up (having previously survived a botched FSB assassination attempt) and now looks set to face new charges to keep him there for the long term. His courts shuttered the oldest civil rights group in the country, Memorial, a few months ago. In the past few years approval ratings for Putin have dropped from the highs of the 80s after the invasion of Crimea to the 60s. This mirrors a fall in GDP/Capita during that same period.

With regards to Ukraine, nothing has changed in recent years. The conflict in the east has been frozen for years. NATO hasn't been making any overtures to Kiev in recent times. That would make it seem more likely that Putin is reacting to internal pressures than external ones. Perhaps he wants to pull off the same trick that he did in 2014 where the annexation of Crimea, without a shot being fired, was almost universally praised within Russia and led to soaring approval of Putin.

This isn't Crimea though. Any invasion of Ukraine now will be met with resistance. Russia's army is far more powerful than Ukraine's but it will still incur losses and beyond that it could find itself bogged down in a quagmire facing guerilla tactics from a well armed local population.

What should be even more troubling for Putin though is the potential for meaningful sanctions against the Russian elite. When Revolutions occur it's almost always disaffected elite who are involved in setting the wheels in motion. Powerful people don't mind playing second fiddle to leaders so long as they get looked after themselves. There's always been an unwritten pact in the upper echelons of Putin's Russian society - The oligarchs don't interfere in politics and stump up cash when required and in return they are free to amass great wealth and funnel it out of the country. Mikhail Khodorkovsky was once the richest man in Russia but he tried to get involved in politics and ended up in prison for his troubles and now lives in exile.

If Russia invades Ukraine it is very likely that the USA and UK will go after these elites and their families. That means things like potentially preventing their children from studying in elite institutes as well as freezing assets. That's the sort of thing that should concern Putin.

At the same time, if the Russian army packs up and heads back to their bases without Putin being seen to have achieved any of his demands, he is going to look weak. He likely won't get the same bump in domestic support that he got after Crimea and whatever issues that were troubling him before all of this will till be there. That may be the lesser of two evils for him at this stage.

Yurt2

UK government nuking their golden visa scheme for Russians (not before time to be honest) and looking into canceling current active visas as well.

That'll put the wind up a lot of the robber-baron Russians connected to Putin if they can't send their kid to Harrow and wash dodgy money through townhouses in Knightsbridge.

Brussels Sprout

When referring to the ramp up in repressions in recent times I neglected to mention that there are apparently now more political prisoners in Russian prisons then at any time since the fall of Communism. One of Memorial's sins was detailing this fact (along with not toeing the Kremlin line on air-brushing Stalin's atrocities out of history).

AbusesToilets

The US and allies have done a very effective job at preempting Russian actions, by publishing potential strategies.

troyzer

If an attack doesn't happen it'll be because Putin unilaterally backs down on most of his core demands.

Because the West aren't going to give him what he wants and he isn't able to credibly claim that Russia aren't building up for an invasion.

So unless you see Putin backing down, some sort of incursion is inevitable. If for no other reason than to throw red meat to the nationalists that his government and media apparatus have been whipping up into a blood frenzy.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118652987#Comment_118652987

An arm-length escalation of the Donbas conflict with mercenaries (new reports have it that private Russian security companies are exiting Africa / Syria en-masse the last few weeks) is another option available to him. In fact, probably a preferable one for him as he'll use the thin veneer of plausible deniability.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118653067#Comment_118653067

While this is certainly possible surely this could have been achieved without the mass mobilisation of all of those troops? (Unless you're saying that this is some kind of secondary option)

Brussels Sprout

People in the rebel-held city of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, will be evacuated to Russia, the area's leader has said.

Denis Pushilin, who is head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), announced on social media that Russia had agreed to provide accommodation for people leaving.

Women, children and the elderly should be evacuated first, he added.

There was no immediate comment from Russian officials or from Kyiv.

link

This seems to be significant

Brussels Sprout

So this seems to be their hook:

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1494729831501676548

I can only assume that this message is for domestic consumption since nobody else is going to swallow such a ludicrous lie.

It might also be a wink to the NATO bombing of the Serbs in 1999 - a campaign which was partly predicated on the basis that the Serbs were massacring Kosovar Albanian civilians. Serbia (who are close allies of Russia) denied this.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118655195#Comment_118655195

They have been making that claim for 8 years ,the other day Russia said they had found multiple mass Graves in the areas they control in eastern Ukraine , but they have never produced any evidence to support or back up their own claims ,

The Russians announced today they were opening a criminal investigations over the shelling of Russians in Ukraine yesterday

Flinty997

The Russians have gone far beyond their usual mass exercise bluff they usually do.

They've gone far beyond anything even the most elaborate exercise would require. The sheer, depth of capability they've put into the area make it hard to believe its just an exercise or bluff. Russia, isn't the force it was, Putin is building it up, but its far behind what it was. The only war Putin can win, is a limited conventional war where the west won't put boots on the ground.

Creating a conflict external to distract from internal issues is as old as the hills. Putin is not unusual in doing that. He's trying hard to create a false flag event. Economically though it makes no sense for Russia. I don't get it.

Yurt2

The multi-strand disinformation and propaganda blitz internally within Russia and externally is astonishing to watch.

There are of course eager consumers for it in the West, and it's fascinating to watch how the naive on the political fringes will swallow and regurgitate whatever is put out there without thought. And some of the stuff being pumped out it beyond ridiculous.

Going forward, minimum breathing space should be given to concentrated Russian goverment campaigns of lies to tee-up war and intimidation. Communication strategies from Western governments should be short, sweet, and to the point. Something along the lines of "We have eyes in the sky, we have eyes on the ground. Cut the bullsh*t, you know we know what you're up to. /END"

Brief_Lives

bookmarked

Heraclius

Thanks for setting this thread up.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118656795#Comment_118656795

I'll second that !!! Thanks.

Gatling

Have a physical headache reading the other thread

Yurt2

Not the biggest Biden fan but that was a very strong address by him this evening.

Heraclius

What do you guys thing is the ultimate strategy on the Russian side? Create a land bridge to Crimea? Topple the Zelenskyy government?

Black Swan

In some form history may repeat itself, but this time in Ukraine. Germany invaded Poland after using a false flag operation. This started WW2.

Before this Germany occupied Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland, claiming that ethnic Germans were being abused (e.g., Russians in Crimea). This was followed by annexation (1938). Eventually taking control of the whole country.

Hobgoblin11

The world is not ready for this, we are just getting over the pandemic

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118656961#Comment_118656961

There's a list of reasons. It's Putins ego certainly. But there's a multitude of strategic, tactical and political reasons for Russia to want to Annex the Ukraine. It's strengthens Russia but to let Ukraine align with the west weakens Russia. Putin wants the old Russia back.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118656961#Comment_118656961

My best guess is that right now is the high point for Putin. The world and it's uncle wants to meet with him, domestically it is playing well for him and as he keeps up the pressure, he may well get some kind of concessions (although not as much as he is asking for).

Everything else will go badly for him. There are a few possible strategic targets:

1. Take over all of Donbass and have it declared independent or annexed to Russia - this might seem like a win, but it means that he loses any hope of future influence over Ukraine. Prior to 2014, there were approximately 8-9m ethnic Russian or primarily Russian speaking people in the Ukraine, being close to 20% of the total population, and mostly based in Crimea, Donbass, the Eastern Border generally and a smaller amount near Transnistria. Since the people of Crimea and Donbass no longer vote in Ukrainian elections, what was once a fairly even debate between pro Russia and pro Western parts of the country has now become a majory (70% plus) pro Western and positively anti-Russian. By taking over Donbass, Putin loses Ukraine, possibly forever. It would also make Ukraine's admission to NATO fairly tacked on, as they would no longer be in a frozen conflict with Russia.
2. A sudden overwhelming invasion of Kyiv and installing a puppet government - this is probably the least worst option politically, but is militarily quite difficult. It would involve either fighting through the territory east of the Dnieper (which will give enough warning time for the Ukrainians to mount a stronger defense of the capital, or attacking down from Belarus which is a fairly forested region and harder to supply so they are at greater risk of being cut off. Plus, while Belarus are happy to join in the war games and such, I am not sure that they want to be an actual participant in the war. Ukranian armed forces would never dream of counter attacking into Russian territory, but they might into Belarus.
3. Trying to take everywhere East of the Dnieper and divide the country - this would likely lead to a protracted insurgency and again, as above, almost guarantee that West Ukraine is lost forever to Russian influence and create an Iron Curtain 2.0 in Europe.
4. Try to take over the whole country - this would be their next Afghanistan, and I'm not sure they would be able for it. Ever since the Chechan war, the Russian armed forces have been trying to modernise from the old Soviet conscript army to a modern professional one. It is costing the Russian state a lot of money, and Putin is very keen to show off his new toys. But while the Russians have shown themselves very capable in limited conflicts, it is not clear whether the entire Russian army is now a modern, professional army or if the changes are only a limited portion and the rest is still the creaking old red army machine. There is a lot to lose for Putin here. Most Russian tanks are modernised versions of the old Soviet ones (the T14 has yet to come into service) and so are liable to be destroyed by the Javelin missiles (if the Ukranians are able to properly deploy them). Their airforce could completely overwhelm the Ukranians, but air superiority is only of limited value i.e. attacking key targets, and again is susceptible to anti aircraft weapons which the Ukranians have in reasonable numbers. The Russian Navy has been largely neglected and would be a huge expense to modernise, so if they were to attempt a sea landing or other naval operations and it doesn't work out well, it will be embarrassing for Putin. Plus, there is a very strong likelihood that even if they did manage to take the entire country, a strong insurgency will emerge, supported by Western governments.

So in any of those 4 or similar scenarios, Russia ultimately loses vs where they currently are right now.

Given that Putin is reasonably smart, my best guess is that he will want to prolong this for as long as possible to try to secure concessions.

GM228

Sky News reporting just now (but stressing not yet confirmed) that Russian Special Forces and Russian Separatists have now entered Donetsk.

If confirmed likely to be a huge provocation ploy by Russia? The question then is how much more before the war button is actually pressed?

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118656961#Comment_118656961

On an immediate basis, claim territory to supply water to the Crimean peninsula. On a medium to longer term, prolonged instability hurts Ukraine economically. Drives away investors and prevents them from pursuing EU membership and the like.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118656961#Comment_118656961

The truth is that nobody really knows. Only Putin knows what his intentions are and even they may be subject to events. He may have had a range of options from the outset. These would have ranged in severity from:

1. Kick up a fuss with no intention of attacking in order to force concessions from the West such as reducing/removing sanctions on Russia and ensuring that Ukraine never accepts NATO
2. Send troops into Donetsk and Luhansk in order to push forward the area of control so that both provinces are entirely controlled by Russia. This would include the strategic port of Mariupol.
3. Same as above except seize the entire Baltic sea coastline all the way to Crimea
4. Seize everywhere west of the river Dniepr - roughly 50% of the country
5. Seize the entire country

Right now it seems that things are going to move beyond #1. Perhaps he isn't even considering #4 or #5 due to the difficulties of controlling such a large area. Nobody knows for sure.

As to the why of it, again we have to look at Putin. I think there are 2 main reasons for this:

1. A genuine, deep seated, grievance about the collapse of the Soviet Union and it's standing in the world
2. The fear of another former soviet republic moving away from the Russian sphere of influence

If Putin can take action now that manages to make Russian look strong and hobbles any efforts by Ukraine to move closer to the EU and specifically NATO then that seems to be an action that he's willing to take.

An interesting problem arises here though. Every time Russia attacks Ukraine or cleaves off more of its territory for itself it not only concentrates the ethnic Ukrainian population in the remainder of the country but it also turns them increasingly against Russia. Before 2014 only 15% of Ukrainians wanted to join NATO. Now that figure is up around 50%. If the Russian's manage to depose the current Ukrainian president in any free and fair election he would likely be replaced by a Ukrainian nationalist. The only way to prevent that is to have a permanent occupying force in the country. That opens that force up to guerilla attacks from the local population. This was the exact problem that Russia faced in Chechnya but Chechnya is a tiny republic. Ukraine is 40 times larger with about 40 times the population. I cannot see how Russia could maintain control of large sections of Ukraine in the long run without incurring large and continuous losses of life amongst their ranks.

That means that I think the most likely scenario is for the Russians to only seize territory with large numbers of Russians. They can then leave the threat of further encroachments hanging over the rest of the country in perpetuity. Basically just an extension of the status quo.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118658554#Comment_118658554

Thanks for your detailed answers.

I largely agree with your assessment that occupying the whole country long-term would be impossible. I'm dubious about toppling the government also because the government could just retreat to the far west and face Russia with the first scenario again. I'm guessing they are hoping to somehow force the government into accepting autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk but don't know how they'll manage that.

Nody

I think the problem with holding onto Ukraine is ironically what protects it the most. Russia can easily overwhelm and take over Ukraine; they can infiltrate easily etc. The problem, and Putin is well aware of it, is holding on to Ukraine. It lacks interesting resources (bread basket is not that critical these days), they need someone to take over locally and be able to hold on to it without being a big money drain (i.e. constant Russian occupation force is not really doable due to size, cost etc.) and honestly I don't see any suitable candidate. Which leads to the final issue; once the dictator of choice gets kicked out (since the people are now used to living in a free nation) the "new Ukraine" will be even more hostile to Russia than before and even more desperate to join Nato. This means Russia will be in even a worse position than now.

Tie that in with sanctions forcing them to export raw material to China only (and China will happily oblige) will sink the Russian economy between paying for the occupation, supporting their pet dictator and the Russian oligarks running into problems in the west. Putin is not stupid; he knows all of this and Russians in general still remember Afghanistan and Chechnya and those quagmires which would not go down well domestically beyond the initial year or so.

Flinty997

I think Putin will lose more than he will gain out of this.

But then look at his history, he didn't from the KGB to premier of Russia by being reasonable or fair.

Yurt2

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a jittery statement about Ukraine's sovereignty needing to be respected and the Minsk Agreement being the only show in town

It's long been a source of contention with China watchers over the years how far exactly Beijing would ultimately go to stand beside Russia in a severe crisis. The preponderance of opinion has always been that Beijing would lose its nerve and pull back to self-interest and risk aversion. They don't want a geopolitical sh*tstorm that would draw obvious parallels with Taiwan and their designs on the island. A coherent security alliance involving NATO, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia all moving in lockstep to limit Chinese moves on Taiwan would inevitably result. Invading Ukraine is a risk quantum too large for China to really get into bed with Putin on Ukraine.

It's a fair-weather friendship

Manach

Earlier this month, I would have reckoned it unlikely Russian would stage an invasion. Now I am not sure.

Historically, many of Russia's attacks (no matter the regeime) have been oportunistic (Hungary during Suez etc.) . Other powers were destracted and Russia took the Clauswitzian route of using the military to advance political goals. While there is weakness in the West ( post pandemic strife, weak leadership) there did not seem to be a sufficent reward to risk. However, events (akin to 1914) are seemly spiriling out of control and we may end up in a situation that none really wanted and in which the post-Modern confirmity of the West will struggle with.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118659736#Comment_118659736

Remember the new Chinese silk road passes through Ukraine , eastern Ukraine enroute to Moscow ,

This could upset chinas plans ,if ukraine is in conflict or ukraine and it's neighbors say sorry china we don't want your silk road

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118660243#Comment_118660243

It's probably just a coincidence but if they launch an attack it'll be the third time that they've began an attack during or close to an Olympics under Putin (Georgia 2008 - began the week before the Beijing Summer Olympics; Crimea 2014 - began during the Sochi Winter Olympics)

Hobgoblin11

“I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” – Albert Einstein.

lulublue22

Have been following this for the last few weeks - tensions have ramped up significantly over the last 2 days - evacuation of women and children to Russia , call up of the male population bt ages of 18 - 55 , over 1600 ceasefire violations in Eastern Ukraine , Russian reports of “ attacks” by Ukraine forces for domestic consumption , Russian forces to stay in Belarus and reports of Russian forces 5k from the Ukraine border. I don’t know how diplomacy could work now - at this stage I think Putin has left himself no choice but to invade to save face.

joe40

How is this all playing out for Putin domestically. Do the Russian population in general believe that Russia should invade Ukraine.

Do a majority think that Ukraine should be part of Russian territory and an invasion is justified.

I know Russian media is controlled but I just wonder how much real support Putin has in this instance from the Russian people.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663065#Comment_118663065

There was a video done by Euronews or Al Jazeera , asking Russians in Moscow what they thought of the coming war ,

They all said ukraine is no threat to Russia and they should not be attacking Ukraine ,

Putin doesn't care what his people say he's supreme leader ,and unless the Russians people come out eamass to demand this ends we go to war

Brussels Sprout

why is Putin so afraid of Europes poorest country that given up its nuclear weapons to Russia and that Russia already occupies parts of?

I suspect you are asking this rhetorically but the real threat of Ukraine to Putin isn't any physical threat it poses to the borders of Russia. No, it's the prospect that it might actually succeed as a western democracy. That it might build strong institutions that allow the economy to thrive. That its press will be free to criticize its leaders and that they in turn can be voted out of office in free and fair elections.

Putin came to power after the chaos of the '90s in Russia. An era where many people lost their jobs and their life savings during a massive economic collapse. He vowed to ensure stability and to restore dignity to the people. That took him a long way and since then he's able to top up the opinion polls with a steady diet of nationalism and jingoism.

After the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine, Russian state TV reveled in showing its viewers wall to wall coverage of any chaotic scenes that ensued. The message was implicit: "This is what will happen here too if you were to try and get rid of Putin". They need Ukraine to be weak and chaotic to hammer home the message that the only alternative to Putin is a return to the chaos of the '90s. Ukraine cannot be allowed to succeed as a liberal democracy.

There are actually parallels here with the way that a lot of English Brexiteers do not want Northern Ireland to remain in the custom's unions, not because they actually care about the sovereignty of Northern Ireland but that they do not want it to thrive economically, compared to Great Britain, and show Brexit in a bad light.

Of course the Kremlin cannot admit this so instead we get the official line about a military threat.

lulublue22

Can Anyone recommend some good books / articles on eastern european history since the end of the cold war particularly the breakdown of the USSR / roots of the current conflict in Ukraine ? My knowledge of this is shocking and would be interested in reading up on it.

tks

Manach

Offhand two books to provide context

1 - Red Famine by Applebaum. This provides context on why some Ukrainian Nationists are against Russia due to Soviet times.

2 - War in 140 Characters by Patrikarakos. How modern war is full specturm, fought as much on social media as on the battlefield. One of the chapters deals with Ukraine.

lulublue22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663977#Comment_118663977

perfect tk you - have ordered Red Famine and Winter is coming ( mentioned in the book thread) from the local library to get me started.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663089#Comment_118663089

It would have to be a nation wide protest to have any chance of succeeding, and also it would spell the end of Putin's regime if it did succeed , so if we thought we have seen harsh responses to protests in the past, this one would be the daddy of them all. Putin & Co would be literally fighting for their lives.

Hobgoblin11

the showdown-authoritarianism v freedom, pick your sides!

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118664461#Comment_118664461

It's impossible to protest meaningfully in Russia these days - especially on sensitive issues. Putin was so spooked by previous protests that they brought in a series of draconian laws banning any protests unless they're pre-approved by the authorities.

Only today, 6 people unfurled anti-war signs in the centre of Moscow and were immediately arrested:

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1495367206384934912

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665033#Comment_118665033

Yes, its what has kept him in power these last 20 odd years. Even the slightest crack in the ice has to fixed immediately.....because if it was allowed to spread, the whole frozen river would start to break up and become unstoppable. Its all about critical mass..might start with smaller un-coordinated protests, and lead to more and more..especially if those at the top of the pyramid start getting jumpy.....and nothing scars them more than the rumblings of an earthquake, how ever faint. And I'm pretty sure that by now, there are rumblings in the higher echelons about the whole situation.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118664016#Comment_118664016

I have sent you a PM if you want them a bit sooner.

lulublue22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665221#Comment_118665221

Thanks a million really appreciate it - I pm you back but with the new layout I’m not sure if it sent to you or not.

Psychedelic Hedgehog

Thank you again @Brussels Sprout for setting this thread up, from an infrequent poster but long time listener. It’s a breath of fresh air.

Kermit.de.frog

The funny thing about Ukraine is, in 1917, it was originally a German experiment. A country that was created and "independent" but not really independent. It was a puppet state of Germany .

This was the idea of "limited sovereignty" - that is nations that are not nations.

The Germans created the whole concept way back then.

The thing is today the only country in the EU that is truly sovereign is Germany - everyone else is the puppet, they control everything including the purse strings - just as they created Ukraine way back in a sort of perverse test tube experiment.

It's interesting to look back and then think about contemporary reality.

In the end the whole of the EU are the puppet states and Germany is the sovereign country. The one with the real and only power over all these countries.

Ukraine was the first "country" that was sovereign only in name and now we have 26 countries sovereign only in name.

Germany is such an ingenious country. Fair play to them. Not going to begrudge success.

paul71

One immense gain Russia has had from this is the virtual annexation of Belarus. Lukanshenkos stolen election 18 months ago was so obvious that he, for the first time, had to run to Moscow during the protests in Minsk. Putin sent him back and the message was clear "I have chosen your president Belarus - now stop these silly protests".

Now we have 30,000 to 50,000 Russian troops sitting in Belarus, even if nothing happens in Ukraine, Russia now has an army of occupation installed in Belarus without firing a shot.