Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123229566#Comment_123229566

Military support for Ukraine is not ending, albeit it will be significantly hampered.

Russia continues to have zero interest in a peace deal. A fact just continuously ignored by vast swathes of people. Demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from all 4 illegally annexed oblasts as a starting position for negotiation is just code for "we don't want a peace deal".

murphaph

The Russians so obviously want to control all of Ukraine. The least they would settle for would be to retain their 4 annexed Oblasts (even though they don't control all that territory), for Ukraine to leave Kursk, for Ukraine to be disarmed and for Ukraine to install a puppet government. None of that is ever going to be acceptable to the proud people of Ukraine and it should never be acceptable to any other European nation either.

We will keep helping them because they will keep fighting for their very existence. The German CDU and SPD are discussing a 1 Trillion € package to boost infrastructure and defence here. Infrastructure is directly tied to defence of course. Things like railways are instrumental in wartime. It's about half and half, so roughly 500bn for each area. Once we get our new government sorted here we will be back in action. I would expect a big increase in support for Ukraine.

I note and welcome the recent soundings coming out of Ireland with respect to its own defence. Even if Ireland clings on to neutrality while a fellow European country is under a brutal attack, Ireland at least being able to patrol its own airspace will free up the RAF to deploy those aircraft further east. Irish troops can backfill roles in Africa, allowing NATO troops to be deployed to the eastern flank and so on, so even if Ireland doggedly clings to neutrality, this increase in defence spending can benefit European defence. I would prefer if Ireland was comfortable sending troops to help a fellow European country fend off an attack but maybe we're not quite there yet.

Pete_Cavan

European countries need to divesting from US weapons. Send US equipment, shells, etc. to Ukraine as it is replaced by European systems, although availability would mean this is likely to be a slow process. The plan should eventually be for all US made stock in Europe to go to Ukraine (and probably Poland as they will have new US equipment which can't be replaced immediately). The most important thing is to keep Ukrainian barrels loaded, even if stockpiles elsewhere need to be run down more than usual.

Given a trade war seems inevitable now, the EU needs to be prepared to target US services, not goods. Hitting their services will really hurt them and it should be relatively easy to replace many with a European equivalent (goods, particularly finished goods, generally need raw materials, established supply chains, factories, etc. which take time to put in place). Services should have less limitations and the workforce would likely be the existing people just working for a different (now European) company. Taxing the social media giants could really hurt them with limited damage on this side of the Atlantic (most social media is free to the end user so increasing costs for the social media network itself isn't a big issue).

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123232153#Comment_123232153

I agree that from a European perspective this approach makes sense. Unfortunately from an Irish perspective it will be a big blow as so many of those US tech company profits are routed through Ireland. Not much we can do about it though.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123232233#Comment_123232233

Well if Trump is to be believed, that flow of money may be severely reduced in the future anyway.

The threat of tariffs on services should get Trump's attention. He seems to have an old-fashioned view of trade of physical goods and is obsessed with factories to produce them. The tech bros egging him on would likely quickly change their tune if the EU announced that their response would be targeting US services. I suspect the US would be quickly into deescalation mode then.

murphaph

Yeah the man completely ignores the vast services industry in the US. It's strange because he's bankrolled by these guys these days. They have all lost their marbles. Musk appears not to care about traditional Tesla cutomers (many of whom would be liberals) abandoning the brand en masse. I have more or less given up trying to understand it all. We just have to react to it.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123233998#Comment_123233998

Makes more sense if you think of Trump as a Russian asset.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123234587#Comment_123234587

That is the only logical conclusion.

The mystery is why is he in thrall to Putin.

Hotblack Desiato

Must be some pretty damn good kompromat

murphaph

So the only reason I don't believe Trump is a Russian asset is that I think he would have done all this stuff in 2016 or at the latest at the end of his lame duck presidency in 2020/21. They could not possibly have been sure he would be re-elected 4 years later. It was in fact not considered very likely at the time.

I think it really comes down to personal grudges against Zelenskyy and an affinity to strong man Putin. Nothing more than that. He is prepared to sacrifice 80 years of US foreign policy to settle old scores. The fact Congress is seemingly completely impotent is the bigger worry to me. There are supposed to be checks and balances but I am not seeing any of them.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123233998#Comment_123233998

Musk has been given access to vast amounts of US government data for nothing, why would he care about going to the cost and effort of manufacturing luxury cars given the risks involved. He has the data bases and has free reign to wipeout any oversight over what he might do with them. He now has the opportunity to make far more money and exert far greater influence than comes with Tesla, it can burn for all he cares.

Plus EVs are woke.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123235225#Comment_123235225

I was thinking much the same the other day. He has given up caring about Tesla because he sees riches beyond his wildest imagination just like any Russian oligarch.

The world has changed undeniably:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvssAXQz4Cw

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123235086#Comment_123235086

does the president not have close to total control over foreign policy?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123236369#Comment_123236369

The Senate should have control over foreign policy, and Congress has control of the purse. All overseen by the US Supreme Court.

Or at least that is how it is supposed to work.

Exiled Rebel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123235086#Comment_123235086

His 2016 win was a shock, nobody was prepared, least of all the Russians. In addition, the Republicans didn't have complete control of Congress or Supreme Court. All that has changed this time. The Russians were ready and Congress is onside for at least the first two years of this term. He'll do a lot of damage in the next two years, our only hope is the midterms with Democrats wresting back control making him a bit of a lame duck in the final two years....that's not to say he won't do damage in the final two years but it may just prevent a full on dictatorship cementing itself.

Crazy times.

Hotblack Desiato

Would not surprise me one bit if DT is lining himself up to make billions personally out of this minerals "deal"

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123237066#Comment_123237066

I think his approach to Gaza might be more his style.

The minerals are mostly in the region currently controlled by Russia.

PopePalpatine

There's a fierce whiff of Belgian Congo off the Ukrainian deal, especially with the Muskovite so deeply intertwined with this administration. I'm just waiting for the news that The Artists Formerly Known As Blackwater have been awarded the security contract.

murphaph

There's an even fiercer whiff of Afghanistan off it!

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/world/asia/afghanistan-trump-mineral-deposits.html

10000maniacs

I suppose there are two ways to look at US ending support for Ukraine. The cessation of all US arms and intelligence also means the end of US restrictions on Ukrainian strategy. Targets that apparently were forbidden can now be attacked. The vulnerable electrical system that powers the trains that supply everything to the Russian army top that list.

Doesn't compensate for what aid they were getting under Biden, but they can let the Russians have it between the teeth now.

murphaph

In fact the Ukrainians may well feel compelled to take out mixed-use civilian/military infrastructure now because they have far less intelligence to work off and targetted strikes on strictly military targets more or less impossible. Putin's Z Patriots probably haven't thought that far though. Putin has, but he doesn't care about deaths, military or civilian, Russian or Ukrainian. The law of unintended consequences beckons.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123232792#Comment_123232792

The US actually has a healthy trade surplus in services with the EU of about 110m euro so plenty to target there.

Jizique

What are these "services"? Is Europe now going to impose tariffs on Netflix and Dusney?

Nate--IRL--

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123243351#Comment_123243351

Azure and AWS would be pretty big.

Nate

murphaph

Advertising revenues on Facebook, YouTube, Google etc. would be vast sums flowing to (mostly American) shareholders. Every time you watch a YouTube vid, the ads played on it are paid for by primarily European based businesses with those profits making their way ultimately to the US. Those are services too.

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123241958#Comment_123241958

up till now Ukr is very accurate in its targeting on Ru soil eg refineries, oil loading ports , military airports and suchlike. Civilian targets such as towns , high rises are left untouched. If there is a change re the above and the UKranians ‘miss an odd time’; some collateral damage ensues, etc, then it could blame the US for messing with / partially withdrawing the STARLINK service