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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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    #9422
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,453 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    French President Macron tonight saying "nothing is off the table" for France and then also saying the country would never go on the offensive in Ukraine. Just seems like a repeat of the double speak in the west since the war began, a war Germany expected to be over within weeks.

    The calculation that needs to be made here is whether European NATO members think Ukraine is worth enough to western European populations for the increased risk of a much more serious NATO conflict with Russia and the most serious threat of nuclear war since the height of the Cold War. Ukraine is not NATO, it's not the EU. Are they willing to take the consequences when it comes to crunch for Ukraine?

    I personally don't believe for one second that western Europeans that live so comfortably today would be willing to make that trade regardless of the wrongs of Russia's actions. They are sympathetic of course but not to that extent in my opinion.

    It will be interesting to see if Russia does ultimately win what the off-ramp looks like for western leaders because some are putting themselves in an uncomfortable place if it does happen.



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    #9423
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,777 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121895286#Comment_121895286

    Russia is not going to "win" as such, as in take over all of Ukraine, it takes them months to take one village. They are still potent, just not in an offensive way. They can grind away with masses of artillery and sending in waves of 40 year old taxi drivers who've had 1 week of training, but it's brutally slow.

    Macron is using words as a chess move. No one really expects NATO troops in Ukraine, but Macron is saying it to start that discussion as a message/signal towards Putin.



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    #9424
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121895944#Comment_121895944

    Moreover: even if Putin sacrificed another 400,000 troops to take the remaining 80% of Ukraine left free, the next little wrinkle becomes how he keeps control of the place; because all things being equal the Ukrainians won't simply roll over. In all likelihood Russia will need to retain a large portion of (what remains of) its forces in Ukraine to act as the stick for whatever Quisling carrot they install in Kyiv; and you can guarantee separatist and insurrectionist forces will keep those troops busy.



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