Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119717971#Comment_119717971

I agree, just thinking aloud about the abstracts surfacing from this surprising attack. Not least the difference between reality and expectation. And Therein lies my followup wonder, albeit one with a fairly obvious answer: have the Ukrainians actually claimed responsibility for this? Just flicking through the news and not spotting anything.

Initial Reports are this was a truck that exploded - if so I can't imagine that's a card you can play that often. Security around the bridge will be beefed up exponentially, while a purge of anyone vaguely Ukrainian on the Crimean peninsula will be incoming.

bear1

Have to feel sorry though for the truck driver and the passengers in the car that was next to it when it exploded.

What I'm trying to figure out is how the Ukrainians could have pulled it off.

The truck was coming from Russia so any bomb would have had to have been loaded onto the truck there. Then the shear luck that a train loaded with fuel was travelling alongside it..

One could argue it smells like a false flag to justify the war even more.

pixelburp

It's confirmed that there has been no official admission of responsibility from Ukraine, even if they're celebrating the result.

There are so many questions here. A ProUkranian cell within russian borders perhaps? False flag seems a bit much but I'm intrigued. obviously any official source from Kyiv turning the wheels would mean ann attack within russian territory, thus an escalation by Ukraine.

Ukraine has not directly claimed responsibility for hitting the bridge, but senior officials publicly celebrated and on Saturday morning the only real question about the attack was not who ordered it, but how it was carried out.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/08/crimea-kerch-bridge-explosions-russia-ukraine

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119718336#Comment_119718336

Not a false flag: those are selected for outrage and no real strategic harm - so schools, hospitals, general public etc. Not "Putin's pride".

Yurt2

World-class sabatuer antics from the Ukrainians. One that will go down in the history books of warfare.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin right now, they're in total disarray militarily.

beggars_bush

The ukranians claim Crimea is still theirs.

What end of the bridge was hit?

Pete_Cavan

It was far too damaging to be a false flag, but then maybe someone made an absolute hash of it. What's Russian for "you were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off"!

Gatling

So they hit a Russian base 240 km inside proper and hit the kirsch bridge, despite Zelensky previously saying he would hit the bridge because they need it for the Russians to leave Ukrainian territory

Sam Russell

In the Guardian:

Quote:

[An adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted a message on Twitter saying the explosion which damaged Russia*s road-and-rail bridge to Crimea was just “the beginning”.

“Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything that is stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled,” Mykhailo Podolyak wrote.

He told Reuters he believed the blast had been arranged by Russia, although he did not say how he knew.

“This is a concrete manifestation of the conflict between the FSB (intelligence service) and (private military companies) on the one hand and the Ministry of Defence/General Staff of the Russian Federation on the other,” he said.]

If true, there are moves against Putin.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119718742#Comment_119718742

The Ukrainian side.

It seems there is footage of the truck stopped at what looks like some military check point on the Russian side and checked but the check is literally seconds long and the driver is off.

Then in another video someone is trying to prove that the blast come from under the bridge.

I'm more inclined to go with a false flag and scare the Russians into supporting a stronger war front against the Ukrainians.

I just can't see the Ukrainians being able to pull that off.. although in saying that, it would appear they were involved in Dugins daughter's death.

I just hope this isn't the next domino to fall that leads to a nuclear reaction

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119719280#Comment_119719280

If going false flag, you don't cripple your own logistics, dent the moral of your troops on the front lines who are relying on those behind or damage your ability to get all those newly mobilised "soldiers" who you think will turn the war to the front.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119720033#Comment_119720033

The bridge isn't fully destroyed.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119720117#Comment_119720117

Everybody is aware of that. It is out of use for a period of time which has the effects I mentioned.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119716959#Comment_119716959

I'd like to see the "structurally sound" evidence. The rail had thousands (millions?) of litres of oil/petrol burning on it for hours...

As for the road - three sections are completely done in one direction, it's very difficult to fix this as it's in the middle; at least one section in the other direction was damaged by the blast as well. I wouldn't run heavy haulage there.

The Russists rushed to reopen traffic as a PR stunt, no way anyone asessed the damage properly...

It would be hilarious if the road/rail collapsed due to premature too high traffic load on a structurally sections.

McGiver

As for the speculation about false flags and truck bombs. False flag is simply very unlikely (Occam's razor and all that), it's the least valid hypothesis.

Experts on explosives already said it's likely to have been a C4-type of explosive positioned under the bridge and not a truck bomb.

(19) Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | on Twitter: "KERCH DAMAGE: @pmakela1 posts this photo of damage to the road spans-- note the blast has pushed the spans upward from the piers. This indicates the explosion came from below. A missile attack remains a possibility, but a UKR Naval Special Warfare operation is not ruled out. https://t.co/78XAOB3BRB" / Twitter

(19) Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | on Twitter: "KERCH BRIDGE/ DAMAGE ASSESSMENT/ At 0607 Local time, an explosion occurred on a bridge pier supporting road sections of the span linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. Preliminary BDA indicates precise explosive placement; a UKR Naval Special Warfare op cannot be ruled out. https://t.co/cyq9o3IIhJ" / Twitter

It seem to be a SBU operation, probably a secret/spy boat/navy expedition that put the explosives there. The timing was excellent though, not easy to control so that it hit the train with fuel as well...

amandstu

Well that bridge was built without planning permission .

Let's see if they apply correctly for permission to keep the structure.

If nothing else this is a shot in the arm for momentum on the Ukranian side (no sides actually -this is their land)

Sam Russell

Looking at the pictures and videos of the explosion and result, it definitely was not a truck bomb. Also how was the outer road carriageway blown up but not the inner one? How was the train set ablaze but the road next to it destroyed, even though the road is at a lower level?

To me it looks like at least two explosions occurred, from below.

Russian dissidents - not likely. Ukrainian ground forces - again unlikely. Drone or missile - again unlikely. So - who dunnit?

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119722691#Comment_119722691

Russia is now claiming it was Ukrainian Special Forces, while also claiming Ukraine is launching attacks across the Russian border. Obviously their word isn't worth much. AFAIK Kyiv still hasn't announced it was them wot did it. The US declined to comment on the bridge attack as well, which was curious in of itself given you'd think they might know who did it. Or at least have a suspicion.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119723130#Comment_119723130

Any comment from the US would be jumped upon and twisted by Twitter conspiracy cranks, useful idiots in the West, and Russian state media.

The US is better off keeping schtum no matter what they know.

We do know from an excellent NYT article at the war's outbreak is that the CIA over the past number of years had trained Ukraine elite special forces in the States as stay-behind sabateurs in the event of a Russian takeover.

Such was the secrecy of these units and the fear that the Russians would blow their OPSEC, they were completely isolated from the rest of the Ukrainian military and their names were withheld to all but a few in the Ukrainian brass. This has all the markings of their handiwork.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119722691#Comment_119722691

What would make me chuckle would be if a Russian faction had prepared a false flag incident that Ukrainian secret services had piggybacked on to cause real harm where a provocation (by the Russians) with a purely symbolic outcome was all that had originally been intended.

Too far fetched ,but when the book is written about these events hopefully artistic license will allow that kind of skulduggery in the plot.

Like everyone else,in the meantime I am waiting for Russia's response.(see they are for now accusing Ukraine of terrorism...projecting a bit Herr Vlad?)

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119722691#Comment_119722691

I'm not certain what was the cause, but the case for truck bomb is as follows: 1. Several tons of explosive were required to create an explosion of this size. That is difficult to transport in anything other than a truck. A truck, unlike a missile, has the advantage that you can time the explosion to coincide with other events - e.g. the fuel train passing.

Only 1 road deck would be destroyed because that is where the explosion is: the explosion pushes down (or up) on the deck, breaking it and pulling the nearby sections out of their location.

It affects the nearby road deck to a much smaller extent. (There is evidence of some buckling which will affect the structural integrity of the deck).

Setting the fuel train in fire however is a much softer target. Sufficient heat (which travels upwards) would be sufficient.

An explosion

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119723130#Comment_119723130

The Ukrainians although denied the car bomb in Moscow and the Americans said they suspect it was the Ukrainians.

So I imagine the Americans may stay quiet this time.

beggars_bush

And there's the response.

Large explosions in Kiev

bear1

Russia: rape, torture, murder, bomb into oblivion and threaten nuclear bombs.

A bridge is destroyed and they cry terrorism.

Fucking scumbags

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724275#Comment_119724275

Truly it's all they have left: bomb civilians. Projection is the last refuge of the morally bankrupt because for all their - and the whatabout'ists - talk about Nazis in Ukraine, the Russians sure are following the textbook of Hitler. Losing the war, with surrender off the table? Bomb the civvies thousands of KMs from the conflict and hope for the best.

What is hoped to be achieved here? Break the spirit of those in Kyiv? There doesn't seem to be any appetite for appeasement in Ukraine, and it'll only make the troops trouncing Russian gains to fight harder, longer and with more determination to drive the invaders out.

I'm seriously beginning to think Putin might be a dead-man walking. Maybe not to be replaced with someone willing to back down, but he's starting to make all the wrong moves here IMO (especially given the rumours he's passing orders to commanders directly now - again, similar to Hitler).

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724453#Comment_119724453

One could now argue that maybe it's time Kiev is given weapons that can reach Russian territory and bring the fight to their doorstep.

To witness the mistakes of ww2 all over again is truly incredible. Bombing playgrounds and cycle bridges.. how the **** can Russias own allies sit back and say nothing is beyond me.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724471#Comment_119724471

To the second point: because Russians don't know this is happening. It can't be over-emphasised just how walled-off information is in that country, how completely the broad populous has been funnelled into accepting this Death Cult Fascist regime as having their interests at heart. There are dozens of anecdotal incidents of Russians living in the west falling out with families back home, because those in Russia have accepted the Special Operation narrative as gospel. The West is godless and evil, Ukraine a Nazi regime all the way down.

To the first point? No, I don't believe this is the right course and don't see any indication in the EU or NATO believes to the contrary. The only way Ukraine maintains the status of moral superiority - and as such, the logistics to win this war - is if it keeps the fight specific to beating back the invaders. The moment concentrated attacks are aimed at specific, actual Russian locations is the moment that moral superiority disappears & Ukraine becomes the aggressor the Mick Wallaces would have us believe they are. Perhaps the most you argue would be distinctly military positions as valid targets for attack: airbases, supply dumps just across the border etc. At which point Russia would probably move those into urban centres.

Maybe that's why this attack on the bridge hasn't been officially claimed by Kyiv: they know that far into Crimea is getting into a distinctly grey moral area. Take back those 4 provinces lost in 2022, then they can look to Crimea, and get a sense of what the Western mood is towards supporting further incursions into lost Ukrainian territory.

IMO best course of action is to drive the barbarians to the borders, slam the door shut; maybe throw a few history books across the border as well so Russia remembers who its best fighters were down the years, its most independently spirited "citizens" across the Tsarist & Soviet regimes. Then Ukraine can restart its chosen path towards EU alignment, rebuild its country.

Or. Indeed, whatever damn path it wants. It can join the African Union, if that's what it feels is the best strategy - that's kinda the point missed by erstwhile whatabout'ists. Invading armies aren't known to be enablers of choice.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724529#Comment_119724529

I see where you're coming from, but we have just heard (in the guardian now) that belarus's own mad man has now said that they will join a task group with Russia against aggression.

In my mind this is becoming a pre-text for Belarus to either let the Russians attack from the north or join them.

If a second country is then attacking alongside Russia then I cannot see how the rest of the world could hang back.

At the same time, I do wonder how the wests weapons stockpile is holding up? Few reports that it's getting dangerously low

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724856#Comment_119724856

The West's weapons stockpiles are fine, there is a whole next generation of tanks and fighter jets which the Ukrainians aren't getting (would have been too difficult to train them up to use and maintain). It's the Russian stockpiles you should be worried about, them wasting missiles on civilian targets suggests they either know the war is lost and they are only being spiteful.

Before this war, some people thought that Russia was the second best military on the planet, at this stage I'd question if Russia is even the second best military in Ukraine right now.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119725467#Comment_119725467

They also showed in Afghanistan that they weren't the power the world makes them out to be.

I think there are quite a few countries that will stockpile russian supplies in exchange for cheap fuel.