Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696657#Comment_119696657

Only now they have the men , weapons and real Time intelligence to change that situation,from all accounts those on donesk are been paid by Russia to be there under the promise of passports and money if they don't die ...

Others have claimed that less than 40% of people in liberated towns are happy about the Ukrainan military arriving which is an utter nonsense,

beggars_bush

didn't know the Russians were using french tanks.

1 gear to go forward, 5 for reverse

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119686877#Comment_119686877

Oh, it will end all right, when Putins military is smashed beyond repair, and is no longer a threat to anyone else in the World. And your concerns about all the deaths so far and until it does end, blame all of this death and destruction squarely on Putin.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119691037#Comment_119691037

And now, to add to the Russian Army woe's... Winter is coming!!!

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697813#Comment_119697813

I was only reading a few weeks ago that Winter would put the war (and the frontlines) more or less on hold.

I would much rather it played in Ukraine's favour,of course.

Have you heard of that prediction(the stalemate over the Winter)?

What do you (or anyone else) make of it ?

Is there a consensus one way or another?

(Not of course that Ukraine can count on such predictions ;it has been forced to forge its "success" with it's own resolve and in the face of the early calamitous predictions)

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698180#Comment_119698180

I'm not so sure that the Ukrainians will allow it descend into a phony war over the winter now. Every time they have pushed the Russians keeled over so makes sense to keep pushing. Maybe not a full scale offensive but small attacks to frustrate the Russians and not allow them rest.

The Russians were barely able to advance over the summer and they are becoming less experienced and more poorly equipped as conditions deteriorate. I'm sure the Ukrainians will have winter gear provided to them. They can hit the Russians as and when it suits them, whereas the Russians have to freeze their arses off waiting for an attack. Target the supply lines, being cold and hungry in a place they don't want to be will break the Russian's spirit.

Hopefully the Ukrainians can liberate all of Kharkiv and Kherson regions before the winter really sets in. Make Putin look an even bigger fool, pretending to control areas where the Russian army has been eradicated.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698180#Comment_119698180

Trench warfare has always been hell, regardless of season, winter and wet weather make it much worse. But the kind of war beingn fought in the Ukraine is largely from a distance, and comes from the skies, so I cannot see much difference for the Ukrainian side. Presently, the Ukrainians encircle a village/ town/ area and attack it largely by very accurate bombing, and by the time they arrive, the Russians have either left or surrender. And now that they are gaining the upper hand, they have to keep the momentum up. The last thing they need will be a revigorated Russian army arriving in the spring. Now the term " reinvigorated Russian Army" is a very broad term, especially when it comes to describing anything Russian. Hopefully the whole rotten Putin edifice will come crashing down long before the spring.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699140#Comment_119699140

All of the defense thus far has been largely trench warfare.

The Donbass front that has barely moved is a no man's land, full of minefields, ongoing artillery barrages (from both sides) and trenches everywhere.

With the amount of guided munitions, artillery, and drones available, getting dug in to trenches is one of few ways to defend in this conflict.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693566#Comment_119693566

Kadyrov is not that stupid as to call for mobilization in Chechnya, given that he is deeply unpopular there, as was his father before him (He was murdered) Without Putins support, Kadyrov junior would be long gone. Mobilization + drop in Putins support (which would be understandable at the present time) could well mean regime change in Chechnya. No. Kadyrov might well call for mass mobilization in Russia, but on his home ground? Nope.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699181#Comment_119699181

Yes, it has, and given the choice, I'd much refer to be in a Ukrainian trench than a Russian one. Hell on earth would be an apt description. The big difference now though is that using drones, bombs and bomblets, trenches can be bombed precisely, and in a trench, the blast is focused and concentrated on two directions. vertical and sideways, causing massive destruction to any military occupying them. Ukraine is proving to be the most successful with precision guided weapons. So I'd say that by the time Ukrainian forces reach the trenches presently, they have been well cleared.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699181#Comment_119699181

And attacking the logistics and military bases will be the best attack - which is where accurate munitions will give the Ukraine side the upper hand. If the USA allowed longer range munitions (the USA do not want them used over the Russian border) then that would be a game changer. Crimea comes into play, plus the Russian Black Sea fleet.

If Putin plays the nuclear card, either nuclear weapons or attacking a nuclear power station causing a 'nuclear accident' - then that also is a game changer.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699278#Comment_119699278

Trenches are dug in such a way as to minimise the effects of any blast that may go off inside them

Most of the footage of trenches from ukraine show as much also. If you leave you are far more likely to get hit by shelling than if you hide in the trench. it has been the modus operandi for all along the donbass front for years.

The Ukrainian advance is nothing to do with being able to clear trenches effectively, but rather that russians are 1) outnumbered and 2) not digging in effectively - most of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson recently taken was barely dug in at all. Russians naively assuming that calling in artillery strikes on approach AFU positions would be enough to keep them at bay. Compound that with the fact they do not have numbers to form secondary lines of defense, any DRGs can easily penetrate deep into Russian held territory and then they have to retreat from the front significant distances following the slightest gap being formed in the frontlines.

Winter will make pontoon bridgeheads harder to set up and maintain, until such a time as rivers freeze. The mud season will make it more difficult to advance beyond the roads, which will benefit the russian defenders.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699222#Comment_119699222

All those smaller regions - Dagestan , Ingushetia etc. are all starting to get a bit rowdy of late and Chechnya is really only staying quiet right now because of Kadyrov - he he were to get pushed it could be the domino for all those regions to kick off and drag Putin down.

Unrest in the regions inside the wider Russian Federation is likely how this comes to an end in my view.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699356#Comment_119699356

Having lived there for several years, and in the republics, you mention (Chechnya especially) ethnic Russians are not liked (and that's putting it mildly) So they are not going to go quietly into the night (or Putins army either) The clan system is alive and well in these regions, and they are strong links between them via inter-marriage and other links. I met one Chechen on an international flight one time who spoke perfect American English. He had lived in Miami for 10 years, done very well for himself, had built a nice business and life etc. Yet he was returning home to Chechnya, because his family and clan needed him. This is the kind of resistance Kadyrov (and Putin) are afraid of. Chechens take it serious and personal.

bear1

Iran's foreign minister surprisingly not backing the annexation.

Indias prime minister calling żelensky.

Seems Russia's allies aren't as allied as it seems.

If they could just get China to start ruffling their feathers.. or maybe they are waiting to see if Putin actually detonates a nuke.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699345#Comment_119699345

It certainly looks like the lack of secondary lines of defense is what is killing the Russians. Once Ukraine breaches the front line, thre is nothing to stop them driving forward and then sweeping round, cutting off other Russian front line troops. The Ukrainians seem to be targeting doing this beside rivers, where Russian troops on the other side can do little to stop them. At the weekend they attacked along the western bank of the Dnipro and then drove west before the Russians could fall back. By simply cutting off the Russian front line troops, they an defeat them without overly having to engage them in combat.

It was similar when they liberated Izyum, instead of attacking as they moved from west to east, they first made it to the Oskil river to the north before going south and encircling the Russians. With little to slow their advances, the Ukrainians can get into these positions before the Russians retreat.

Black Swan

The Ukraine river tactic advance appears to have worked thus far. Geographically divide and conquer.

Wonders if web talk of insufficiently supplied Russian front line troops in east and south have merit? Also such chatter about 300K mobilization forces lacking logistical support, with many troops having to buy their own bulletproof vests, inflating the price of retailers?

The Clausewitz fog of war seems apparent. Suspects that news media speculates beyond what they actually know, exhibiting creative licensing when reporting to clear away the uncertainties?

Pete_Cavan

And there's a good chance this is all part of a much bigger divide and conquer play. After initially attacking in the east, and now in the west, the Ukrainians likely attack down the middle soon, probably somewhere east of Zaporizhia city, now that the Russian forces are split and in scramble defence mode on either flank.

rgossip30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119689868#Comment_119689868

The AFU bombs its civilians too . !!

https://t.me/antinatocoalition/2358

Fighting Tao

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119713104#Comment_119713104

Yeah, looks like a legit source for accurate info.

marno21

Kerch Strait Bridge from Russia to Crimea is on fire, appears to be a train fire on the railway line.

One of the road carriageways has collapsed and there clearly has to be significant damage to the railway bridge.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1578606253588504577?s=21

bear1

Footage of an explosion on the bridge, seems a bomb went off.

McGiver

Happy birthday, Vladimir Vladimirovich!

This is the end of the already poor Russian military logistics.

And the beginning of the end of the war.

Glory to 🇺🇦!

Pete_Cavan

The bridge is one of only two rail links the Russians have to the entire western half of the front. There's literally just this bridge and a rail line near Melitopol that connect Crimea and Kherson to Russia, and that one may be within HIMARS range soon. Thats Russia's rail connections to the entire western theatre and we know how dependent they are on rail for logistics.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia is well under way, following on from earlier having pulled the Russian forces to either side. All carefully plannedand it's clear how Ukraine have waited until this moment to sever the links to Crimea/South Ukraine. The fact it coincided with Putin's birthday makes it even more beautiful.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119716918#Comment_119716918

The rail bridge seems intact though; it's the road half that has collapsed. While the flames appeared to come from the train that exploded. Point being: if the rail line is still viable and structurally sound then once the broken train is removed, normal logistics might resume. it'll remain to be seen then extent of the attack IMO - though again it shows quiet intent towards Crimea

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119716959#Comment_119716959

Even a few days out of action will be a huge blow to the Russians. And even best case for them, they have to remove the damaged which doesn't look like it will be easy, it may require a crane but they'd have to be sure that the bridge can take the weight (or they finish the job for the Ukrainians).

In the meantime, there is the sudden disruption in supply to deal with while they are already going backwards. As I said, the Ukrainians picked their moment - even if not 100% successful they knew it would still be a huge blow to Russia at a vital time.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119717181#Comment_119717181

Undoubtedly any delay to Russian logistics would have an effect on the front lines, but I'd wonder if Ukrainian command intended to hobble the bridge, or destroy it completely. The difference you'd feel between a week's worth of damage - and wholesale crippling of the entire Russian war machine in that region. A single blow to render the war shorter by months.

pixelburp

Sergei Surovikin, former commander or Russian forces in Syria, has taken over as commander in Ukraine. According to the MoD in the UK, he's "a notoriously corrupt and brutal general even by the Russian army’s standards". So I guess desperation has started to kick in, albeit below the ceiling of a nuclear response. Though one wonders what, if anything, this might mean for the regions under control and the tactics to be used by a losing force such as this.

Sam Russell

If the Ukrainians can cripple that bridge for a while, they can do it again.

The trouble with sinking a ship like the Moskva, you can only sink it once. With a bridge, it can be hit it in different places, and best if it is hit while they are trying to repair it.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119717270#Comment_119717270

I'd say the Ukrainians would have settled for any damage at all but obviously the more the better. Whether it's a two day disruption or a two month disruption, it has a compounding effect on an army already on the back foot. Also, if the bridge isn't fully out of use, or back in use shortly, the Russians have to devote more resources to protecting it against further attacks.

It must also be moral sapping for the front line troops, it's hard enough for them fighting a losing battle with already poor supplies and your own death is a real possibility every day but to hear the enemy has hit your main supply route and that reinforcements could take longer to arrive, well surrender becomes a more attractive option.