Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119689505#Comment_119689505

That sounds lovely but questioning the effectiveness of the Ukrainian troops or their NATO training is not "keeping an open mind". The Russian army has been stalled for months while Ukraine is advancing and has literally just liberated the town of Lyman. No idea what they were doing but the Russians stayed there as they were being encircled and it turned into a turkey shoot when they eventually tried to withdraw.

"Keeping an open mind" in this situation is just an excuse for sympathising with Russia which deserves no sympathy. One country is invading and committing awful atrocities against civilians while the other side is trying to prevent said atrocities against its people. An open mind would recognise this and not spin both sides nonsense.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119687305#Comment_119687305

As if he heard you and wanted to shut down this sort of crap, Zelensky does this;

https://twitter.com/m/status/1576286408398237696

Apparently Ukraine has enough volunteers and conscription isn't required right now. Meanwhile the Russians are dragging lads out of prison because they can't flee like hundreds of thousands of potential Russian conscripts. I'm sure the atrocities committed by Russia is helping with volunteers coming forward for Ukraine.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119688361#Comment_119688361

They are being flung into the front lines ill-equipped, with few rations, few medical supplies , little in the way of tents, clothing and vehicles. Intercepted communications are detailing tales of misery and unpreparedness.

patnor1011

May you live in interesting times curse seems to be happening as we speak. Ukraine may be pushed away by another European war in the making. Seems that coming economic crisis is going to be exploited by many countries trying to sort out border disputes and well blame economic collapse on the war. Happened quite many times.

One would hope that sanity prevails but in light of what is happening it may be just wishful thinking. Have a look at what is going on in Greek and Turkish media. They practically call for the war. It would be interesting to see how this develop considering both are NATO members.

murphaph

I'd say a good chunk of those Russian "troops" in Belarus are there solely to suppress any would be insurgency against Lukashenko. If he falls, and he is deeply unpopular, much more so than Putin I believe, Putin's position becomes much more exposed and revolutions spread, especially when they share a common language and culture. Belarus could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. I would be amazed if the opposition there hasn't been planning something and as Ukraine is increasingly successful it must give them hope that they can do it too.

Sam Russell

Belarus is a rotten pear just waiting to fall.

There is a huge anti-Lukashenko undercurrent as he is hugely unpopular - even more so being kept in place by brutal coercion imposed with the aid of Russian troops. Any sign of support for the local partisans from abroad resulting in any unwise foray into Ukraine would bring the regime crashing to the ground.

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119687305#Comment_119687305

More "both sides" rubbish. People leaving Ukraine are overwhelmingly women, children and males of over-military age. The exodus from Russia could not be more different. And the huge voluntary recruitment in Ukraine could not be more different from the scraping of the bottom of the barrel going on in Russian prisons.

murphaph

Also, Ukraine has been attacked. If conscription is employed, it will be in self defence. The rag tag bunch of conscripts the Russians are using are the invaders. Enough with the "both sides" garbage already. One state has INVADED another here. There really are goodies and baddies in war sometimes. Ukrainian women are actually volunteering to fight in any case. They are absolute legends and the very, very least we can do to support that country, in what is a much bigger geopolitical fight between democracy and authoritarianism in Europe, is to take a financial hit and turn that thermostat down. Wear a jumper and reduce, reduce, reduce your energy consumption because that is Putin's only real weapon against us, tactical nuclear weapons aside but then it's game over for the world anyway.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119691470#Comment_119691470

The standard, and only, response of those claiming Both Sides, or some degree of moral absolutism, is to waffle about Ukraine breaking the Minsk agreement - as if everything that has happened since is on them. So, ya know, boilerplate victim blaming: If Ukraine hadn't been so provocative then its citizens wouldn't have been raped. What's a Chechen death squad to do? Couple of blue hats on them and they're mere humanitarians really, protecting russian speakers. We come in peace, stop running away.

Peace, as has been since day one, is easily achieved if Russian forces discovered the reverse gear in their vehicles. End of. Yet I daresay if Ukraine ceded its land to Russia -, for peace! - til Ukraine was nothing but a sorry vassal, the same absolutionists would suddenly cry worry that a belligerent Russia sat next door to the EU.

Ah who am I kidding? They'd probably determine Poland should cede its eastern border; ya know. For peace!

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119691519#Comment_119691519

Worked before WW2 for them

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119688361#Comment_119688361

Don't think we know how most new recruits for the war since Putin's big speech will be treated (I suppose it will all emerge in time) but the precedents don't look great for them. Here is one on a recruitment drive in the Russian prisons for Wagner:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/20/russia-recruits-inmates-ukraine-war-wagner-prigozhin

One woman, Irina, said her husband, who was in jail in Nizhny Novgorod, had told her two weeks ago that he was departing for Ukraine the next day.

Now these could be people who were in the army previously and had training, but that speaks of desperation (even leaving aside the issue of recruiting prisoners).

Also been stories in media concerning either Russian military or Russian-backed forces in the occupied areas of Ukraine rounding up random people to fight for them. Again likely with little training or equipment - literal cannon fodder for their war, seems to me almost like Russia's WW2 "shtraf" batallions. Another one from Guardian website:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/20/pro-russian-separatists-step-up-forced-conscription-as-losses-mount

On why Russia hasn't been pushed "back" fully, afair it had a massive military strength advantage over Ukraine at the start of the war. This has been reduced somewhat by Ukraines' successes and the Western (US/NATO) help (weaponry and ammunition, training of more soldiers for Ukraine's army, intelligence/information on what Russia is up to etc.).

JL555

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119690055#Comment_119690055

I beg to differ. It is undoubtedly keeping an open mind to question things. It may well be that their training is top class. But the question I have is: How effective is it? And is it achieving and will it achieve its goals. It is right to question all inputs into a conflict. If I can compare the conflict to a very complex process, which any conflict is, then I would always have to question the inputs to make sure they are effective and will have they desired outcome. I do note that the Russians have had significantly less than an invasion force that would be required to occupy an entire territory than traditional military doctrine would suggest it should have. So whether we like to admit it or not, the invasion force is probably doing better than they should have. And it may well turn out that Ukraine does bring an end with the help of NATO weapons, training and intelligence. But it looks entirely likely that this conflict will go on for years.

It is counterproductive to suggest that if we question the effectiveness of something or suggest we keep an open mind is just an excuse to sympathise with one side or another. It is also very clear to me that this conflict is causing terrible pain and misery, and it is also clear who made the decision to invade in February and should be held accountable for the trail of destruction left. Just to be clear, I am not a Russian sympathiser. But my interest does happen to go further than one side = good and the other side = evil. Even though it is often clear who the aggressor is, no conflict is ever that simple, at least not for me.

pixelburp

With Ukraine having taken back Lyman, a town supposedly now part of Russia - what now Moscow? We'll soon find out just superficial the referenda were. Donetsk, "Russia" has buckled and Lyman a supposed key logistics hub for Russia.

Putin's little Chechen butcher seems to be keen to (low yield) nuke the Ukrainians;

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-troops-left-lyman-avoid-encirclement-2022-10-01/

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119691789#Comment_119691789

Russia vastly outnumbered Ukraine in terms of weapon systems, aircraft, missiles, artillery, tanks, IFVs, etc etc.

The fact that Putin was deluded enough to fail to bring sufficient manpower to occupy Ukraine doesn't alter that fact.

The fact that Russia's verified losses are 4 times that of Ukraine- despite having the element of surprise and the choice of where and when to attack as well as vastly greater numbers of weapon systems to begin with does however. Furthermore those losses include the Moskva - the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship lost to a country without a navy. Many analysts expected Russia to take over Ukraine in weeks - and early on, the western states only prepared for that possibility. Consequently, western states only provided handheld weapon systems- such as javelins.

So no- Russia isn't doing "better than they should have", they've destroyed almost all of their elite/professional infantry units & much of their military leadership, burnt through a couple of decades of vast Soviet artillery and other weapon systems and their invasion culminated 3 months ago. At the same time western production of materiel is only beginning to crank up - and Ukraine was able to cripple the Russian army's logistics with a total of 20 Himars alone -35 year old American technology.

Russia is in a situation where it tries to keep Kherson (as Putin refused Russian military requests to pull back)- despite being unable to supply it as all the bridges are cut to heavy traffic. They are now digging tanks from the 1960s out of storage. Between emigration and mobilisation they'll lose 10% of their working male population by next year. They've cut 10% from every public sector budget so far (except defence & security)- and the effects of sanctions will only really get felt in the coming months as the problem of lack of spare parts for industrial equipment starts to compound.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119692778#Comment_119692778

To add to your excellent post, this war has also shown up so many Russian claims about the quality and quantity of tanks, aircraft and weapons systems as bogus... tanks that were supposed to have advanced reactive armour didn't have them etc etc

Some of this is down to corruption and some of it is down to the systems not actually up to scratch.

fash

Early reports of a collapse of Russian positions in northern Kherson - the Ukrainians moving down the river (& thereby protecting their left flank)

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1576642928537051137?s=20&t=yMviRuWGkpxyjzdEKkCO_Q

Appears to be another rout - and could allow another cauldron (as the remaining Russians in northern Kherson will be surrounded on 3 sides) - plus allows for targeting of important nodes on the other side of the river:

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1576644671530360833?s=20&t=yMviRuWGkpxyjzdEKkCO_Q

Plus more good news in Luhansk with apparent Russian withdrawal from Novodruszhesk:

https://twitter.com/OSINT_Eye_/status/1576640096040005632?s=20&t=yMviRuWGkpxyjzdEKkCO_Q

Also a good indicator of where things are going is looking at the geometric rates of weekly (not just cumulative!) losses of equipment suffered by the Russians - whereas Ukrainian losses are slow & steady - despite being on the offensive.

https://twitter.com/alfabetaceta5/status/1576333733979824129?s=20&t=edoj6fwVHF0OuNfg_h4CVA

Edit:

Also Ukrainians seem to be heading to Svatove from Kupyansk: https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1576622683030048768?s=20&t=C_D3TICsYBhUVYMR8nuVMw

It would be interesting if there are collapses of 2 fronts in one day.

irishgeo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119692025#Comment_119692025

This will be the same Chechnyan leader who refused conscription in Chechnya. Easy to call to fire low yield nukes when it's none of your people in the firing line.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693514#Comment_119693514

If these are remotely true, then it just furthers the wonder at what on earth the Russian mobilisation will serve here, especially when "recruits" look like they'll have worse equipment and supplies than the ones currently getting totally rolled over. It'd be a farce if it weren't poor souls dying for the arrogance and idiocy of their leadership; they're not all rapists and savages, plenty would be confused, decent Russians who just wanted to earn a few shekels.

At this stage the only problem Ukraine might have is curtailing an encroaching sense of invulnerability; I'm sure there's a loss coming, especially if Moscow makes a desperate move; the trick will be persuading these rampaging batallions not to get complacent.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693629#Comment_119693629

The mobilisation serves 2 purposes:

1. A bunch of Russian contract soldiers were planning on leaving at the end of their contracts & volunteer battalions were refusing to go to be killed - this allowed Putin to force anyone he wanted to stay.

2. It serves as an internal escalation to dampen criticism against the upcoming collapses & looks like Putin is doing something.

Those mobilized are mobilized without training and without trained officers - there have been many reports of Russians mobilized and then in the middle of a warzone 5 days later - with huge numbers of those getting mowed down. Modem battlefields are even far less welcoming to non-professionals than those from which the term "cannon fodder" came about.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119691789#Comment_119691789

So your idea of keeping on open mind is to assume that the Ukrainian army is doing worse than all the evidence suggests. Most would consider that denying reality but whatever, believe what you want to believe.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693678#Comment_119693678

It also callously eliminates tens of thousands of young men. These young men are likely to be the most disaffected as the Russian economy implodes under the sanctions and they find themselves out of work and surplus to requirements. Young men like that with little to lose in life are a powder keg no regime wants around. It's much easier to control middle aged people and pensioners.

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694009#Comment_119694009

will they just surrender en masse?

would they then be exchanged in the future or just held by ukraine?

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119693678#Comment_119693678

Yes those are two important factors, but there are a few more:

3 . Mobilised troops, even with limited refresher training etc can still effectively occupy and maintain order away from the front lines, securing the rear of the army and also freeing up other troops for the frontlines

4 . Specialists have been recruited to fill gaps in some frontline units e.g. if tank crews are undermanned, they can take on a new recruit who has experience in a tank from their conscript training, and they can get up to speed on the job.

5 . The psychological impact of an impending deployment of 300,000 or more soldiers, even if they are not particularly well trained, is important. Even if the Ukrainians don't rate them as frontline soldiers, there is nevertheless an increased urgency to trying to capture Kherson before reinforcements can arrive, and this could lead to riskier tactics.

6 . Some of the mobilised troops might be subjected to proper training in the background rather than being shipped out to Ukraine straight away. These soliders could get training over the winter and so next Jan/Feb they will have more troops to bring in

While there are credible reports of new recruits being dumped in or near the frontlines with no clue what to do, I'm not sure that this is typical of the mobilisation. Maybe Russia, having not had to mobilise since WW2 are rusty on the procedures etc and these are just mistakes that they will learn from, rather than being deliberate policy. But then again, who knows!

20silkcut

With 50 or so of the richest nations on the Earth stacked against them and two of the biggest nations sitting on the fence, Russia are facing impossible odds here. Modern wars are not necessarily won on the battlefield or by numbers of troops but by the factories and industry’s and economies behind the scenes. Ukraine have all the advantages in that regard. It’s taken until now for the effects of this to be seen but it can clearly be seen now.

bear1

From looking at the updates maps, it would seem that the Ukrainians are very close to Donetsk and Kherson.

What possible scenarios could we be in line for if the Ukrainians reach the city limits? Kherson I'm not sure but Donetsk i imagine would be a fiery response

Pete_Cavan

The Ukrainians penetrated the Russian line and drove down the 30+km down the westen bank of the Dnipro in little more than 24hrs. Looks like another pincer which could trap thousands of Russian soldiers in northern Kherson Oblast. The Russian Army seem incapable of avoiding repeated outflanking and encirclement, what a shambles they are.

Nody

Well it's nice to see that Russia keeps their voting habits; this is from the Russian duma who were voting for the annexation (four rounds of voting in total due to four regions):

• For "joining" the DPR - 413 votes
• For "joining" the LPR - 412 votes
• For the "annexation" of the Zaporozhye region - 409 votes
• For the "annexation" of the Kherson region - 411 votes

Worth noting that there were 408 members of the duma present at the time of the vote...

Sam Russell

You are forgetting Putin's casting vote(s).

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695266#Comment_119695266

The frontline has been on the outskirts of Donetsk for 8 years - its a heavily mined and fortified area on both sides. The Ukrainians have always been "very close" to Donetsk.

pixelburp

Russia doesn't know where to draw the literal line of the border for its annexed regions; presumably because those Ukrainians keep taking the land back. It'd be hilarious if it wasn't all so pathetic at this stage.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/kremlin-unclear-on-which-parts-of-ukraine-it-has-annexed