Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651272#Comment_119651272

I think the moment russia invaded ukraine all russian visas should have been cancelled and Banned from entering the whole of Europe,and the one's here and elsewhere parading around with the Z flags on cars should have been deported,

These men are fleeing conscription but most likely support the invasion and the mass genocide of Ukraine,

Why allow them come to here or Europe if that's the case

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650222#Comment_119650222

You are right there Gatling. In democratic countries they hold referenda first and then count the votes. But every sovereign country is free to do the ‘ same outcome’ in their own and that is why Ru count the votes first and then a- after that- nominate a day for voting. Other differences in the broad sense eg Irl use proportional representation while Uk use the system of first pass the post.

im not aware of any other country that has adapted the Ru system !,,,,,

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651921#Comment_119651921

Unfortunately, outside of the middle east, most of the world's autocrats follow the Russian model. Africa is chock full of Presidents who go through the charade of elections every 4 or 5 years despite the outcomes of them being pre-ordained. Yoweri Museveni was re-elected last year, in Uganda, despite being in power since 1986. Paul Biya of Cameroon has been President even longer. In 2018 he got 71% of the vote (allegedly). Closer to Moscow, Alexander Lukashenko got an improbable 81% of the vote 2 years ago despite being n power since 1994 and being absolutely reviled by the people of Belarus.

Having a fig-leaf of democracy is a box-ticking exercise for these strongmen. They can pretend that they're no different to western democracies and get quite indignant if anyone suggests otherwise.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651197#Comment_119651197

And why not? At least they will be accompanied by the parents ( one of them anyway...) but wait and see how many names will be taken directly from the cemeteries??? A miracle, if I ever heard of one !!!☺️

Pete_Cavan

Looks like the Russian plan will be to use the conscripts to dig in in Donetsk, Luhansk cities and other medium sized population settlements and make it difficult for Ukraine to retake these.

The thing is, if Russia needs hundreds of thousands of mobilised conscripts to defend these areas, they cannot hold them in the long term without permanently maintaining that level of commitment there. They have to continuously supply and equip these troops, which is going to become increasingly difficult given the sanctions and their dwindling economy.

Ukraine won't be settling for anything less than full liberation and have plenty of time, we in Ireland dont have to look far to see how these fels endure for generations. They will continue to get western support to allow them continue the offensive for a long time yet. From here, Russia's only option is to hold on by its fingernails indefinitely, in reality they are going to have to cut their losses at some point.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652650#Comment_119652650

Or just Nuke Ukraine.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652661#Comment_119652661

Can we not just nuke Moscow instead.

All this talk of nuclear weapons being used against Ukraine, when can we discuss nuking Moscow

JL555

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652650#Comment_119652650

To what end though? Ukraine as a country will be in complete ruins and ripple effects are far and wide.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652822#Comment_119652822

And Russia are back to the 1940s

Ukraine will win ,and we the rest of the world must do everything to make sure they have all the support and equipment to win

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652822#Comment_119652822

I suppose to the same end that they are currently pursuing the conventional war. So far the war has cost Russia in lives, money and international standing, and has caused untold damage and loss of life to the areas that they are claiming to liberate.

If they did manage to successfully annex those territories and get peace it would be a disaster for Putin. Thats millions of people to feed, support and billions in rebuilding the towns and cities. There will likely be insurrections and discontent requiring increased security, and Ukraine without these territories would almost certainly join NATO and seek to finance such insurrections.

So in reality there is no good outcome for Russia, yet they persist!

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652650#Comment_119652650

It's a daft tactic cos those conscripts will need supplies, weapons, food and shelter; none of those being infinite and if Ukraine just surround those urban areas, cutting off supply of those logistics? Maybe Putin's plan is to collapse Ukraine's own logistics where their system buckles from having too many POWs? In the here and now, there can't be enough equipment for them anyway by the sounds of things - nor do these conscripts sound remotely enthused to fight. it's a recipe for disaster.

The Guardian is reporting unconfirmed mentions that Putin is personally directing the army in Ukraine now. If true that's further evidence this invading army is a freewheeling mess, destined for failure.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653406#Comment_119653406

I wasn't suggesting that it was a good tactic but in reality it is all Russia has left. Further advances are pretty much out of the question for them for the reasons you mentioned (their soldiers will have limited training, their equipment inadequate, poor logistics, etc.). It is easier to fight a defensive war where you have well established positions, Ukraine have to go on the offensive which is more difficult.

But as I said, it's not going to work out well for Russia. Ukraine has all the time it wants, vast numbers of extremely motivated and increasingly well trained soldiers, on top of endless supplies and ammo with which to grind the Russians down. Continuing with the pretence that they can win is only damaging Russia further, their economy is destroyed and they are going to have enormous demographic problems after sending so many young men to the slaughter.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653475#Comment_119653475

Oh I know you weren't advocating it. It's plain to see Russia has "lost" this war; the mobilisation order points towards an increasing reversion to type, hoping to climb to victory by dint of having more corpses to stack. Hunkering down around "fortress" points of defence hasn't been effective since the days of the Maginot Line - and look what happened there.

It'll be Mariupol again, only flipped; the Ukrainians cutting off the Russian conscripts and simply waiting them out. Of course the next question becomes: then what? Does Putin press the nuclear button? Or does he have a sudden totally-accidental incident with Russia's worst killer of powerful men - stairs and balconies?

At some point the lunacy has to stop; think everyone wants to know when. And if Ukraine sense blood in the water enough to think Crimea is a target they can take back, I worry Putin has purged enough rivals, and would be desperate enough, to do something rash. Had any of his wunderwaffen actually worked, or the Brits hadn't sabotaged those Hard Water plants in Norway, I daresay Hitler would have been crazy enough to nuke London when the tide turned. I fear we're slowly entering similar madman-with-a-gun territory. It's not whether Ukraine can win - they clearly can and the Russian Army has shown its flaws for all to see. It's whether Putin's ego can allow him to walk away.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653598#Comment_119653598

At this stage Putin walking away isn't an option. When he finally leaves the stage, it will almost certainly be in a condition that means any sort of movement from him is impossible. Somebody is going to have to take him out (and that somebody includes he himself), either quietly by those around him or under a full on revolution.

I read an interesting comment saying that most Russian motorways and railways centre on Moscow and that huge numbers of these conscripts will be moving through there. Around Moscow is one of the few places with the resources to accommodate so many people so the conscripts may have to be staged there before being brought to the border and on to the front line. Large numbers of scared and angry men facing death in someone elses war, all in the same place together with access to weapons and near the seat of power - perfect conditions for a revolution.

pixelburp

Looks like the UN is confirming what had been rumoured and general tattle for months: the Russians, far from noble liberators, have been committing war crimes like it was going out of fashion. It's almost like am army with a culture of savagery and no oversight might behave like barbarians when let off the leash.

Thinking back on the contrarian arguments from NATO allergists desperately trying to chatter about Russia protecting russian speaking Ukrainians, or Western aggression forcing Putin's hand. Or the ubiquitous Azov batallion. That it's our fault those Russian soldiers raped and killed scores of civilians. The black streak in my humour thinks of the film Mars Attacks, the invading aliens chanting "we come in peace!" as they kill and destroy.

The recent flouncing away by one user accusing this thread of "russophobia" draws a smile. Presumably now the pivot will be to Well, Actually that the UN itself is corrupted and biased. Won't be a big leap for the conspiratorially inclined.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/23/russia-has-committed-war-crimes-in-ukraine-say-un-investigators

rgossip30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119544229#Comment_119544229

Russians have the right to claim asylum the same as Ukrainians .

Ubbquittious

What will happen if Putin does start using Nukes? It is not a pretty thought. At the moment brave Ukrainian soldiers get up every day to repel Russian attacks and this keeps a semblance of stability in the West. But if nukes start getting used in anger that is a big red line to get crossed, something only a few people alive today have witnessed.

The markets will plunge into chaos, western powers will be very unsure how to react, the effect of "sh1t getting real" will hit home very fast.

rgossip30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652761#Comment_119652761

So you want to nuke Moscow good move .

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119658676#Comment_119658676

Considering all of the talk of nuclear weapons being used against Ukraine for the last 8 years,

Talking about nuclear weapons being used against Russia should become normalised for the most part on here and elsewhere people have cowered from the russians because he has nukes,lets not get involved in Ukraine he has nukes, let him annex parts of Ukraine,let him carry out genocide in Syria and Ukraine he has nukes .

Pure cowardice and enablement from people that's brought us to the current situation even this week he openly used the threat again.

So Russia publicly needs to know if putin nukes any part of Ukraine then Russia will face immediate retaliation from Nato and the Eu and not sanctions

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119658698#Comment_119658698

I personally think that if Putin does nuke Ukraine, part of the response should be to give lots of nukes to Ukraine - and see what Putin thinks of nukes then.

Sam Russell

If nukes come into action, then so does NATO - full on.

NATO must be preparing to intervene at some point - and if they do, the Russian Black Sea fleet will be sunk, and any movement of military vehicles capable of carrying ground fired missiles that carry nukes will be destroyed - whether they have any on board or not. NATO know the signature of these vehicles. It will/must be quick, and decisive.

I only hope the defences against the Russian ICBMs is 100% effective.

An early retaliation in a massive way against any sign of nukes is required to just get the MAD doctrine to hit home.

Remember the old advice - 'In the event of possible nuclear attack, push the dining room table up against the chimney breast, climb under, put your head between your knees and kiss your ass goodbye.'

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119658972#Comment_119658972

@Sam Russell "I only hope the defences against the Russian ICBMs is 100% effective"

I wasn't aware that was any kind of a substantial hope.(unless your sarcasm got past my detectors)

Don't the Russians also have nuclear submarines and that would respond even if Russia itself was destroyed.

US and UK certainly do

Has MAD somehow gone out of fashion?

I reported Gatlin for suggesting Moscow should be nuked.

I have no solution if Putin users tactical nukes but I did hear on RTE that it is very easy to take them out as they have to be moved into position.

Whether that is good news or not in the overall picture I can't say.

Gatling

@amandstu I reported Gatlin for suggesting Moscow should be nuked.

If they use nuclear weapons on ukraine .

😭

Sam Russell

I think if there is any use of nukes by Putin, we are in serious trouble - very serious trouble.

Fortunately, Khrushchev did not use them in the Cuban missile crises in 1962.

Apparently, he heeded the warning given by Bobby Kennedy to their ambassador to Washington, while Bobby was holding said ambassador tightly by the lapels and telling him to his face that USA were not bluffing. I believe from the reports on that occasion, that the ambassador was left in no doubt that Bobby Kennedy meant every word of it.

Let us hope the same message gets through to Putin.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119658863#Comment_119658863

They already had nuclear weapons but putin them a deal which saw the nuclear weapons going to Russia in return for peace and friendship ironclad treaties.

Then came the little green men and annexation of Crimea and occupation of Eastern Ukraine

Larbre34

If the detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon is detected in Ukrainian territory, it will lead automatically to a full yield retaliatory strike on Russian primary targets by NATO land and sea launched nuclear ballistic missiles.

A 1-kiloton battlefield strike by them, means 3,000 megatons will destroy everything of military, governmental and industrial significance within the Russian federation.

That's the doctrine, that's what every NATO system has been attuned for, for the last 70 years.

Those are the stakes and the Russian Ambassdors to every NATO State should be being reminded of that today.

Pete_Cavan

I doubt even China would tolerate Russia using any sort of nuclear or chemical weapon.

There has to be major question marks over Russia's nuclear arsenal anyway. It is clear every other part of their military has been undermined by corruption, theft and general not bothering with maintenance. Nuclear systems are extremely expensive to maintain and it is unlikely that Russia has been i) spending as required and ii) that the full budget allocations have been used as intended. Add to that the impact of sanctions, they must be struggling to get specialist components (for which there are very few suppliers) and even software systems must be having problems if they can't get access to updates. There were suggestions that Russians were stealing things to get microchips, imagine what their nuclear launch systems would need.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119659176#Comment_119659176

Quite. Really the best option for either a strategic or tactical nuclear strike is to give Ukraine the same capacity. Then Putin might get one shot off - but unless he was planning on strategically nuking every city at the same time, he then faces a MAD dilemma.

rodge123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119659795#Comment_119659795

Thought of this myself but it opens up a huge can of worms. Maybe Russia decides, if USA can give away nukes to our enemies then sure we’ll give away nukes to North Korea and Iran and so forth.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119659825#Comment_119659825

Iran may or be very close to having nuclear weapons and North Korea likely already has several at least.

All based on Russian tech...via proxies.

Ukraine already had nuclear weapons, which they signed away for peace with Russia and look how that turned out ,

At this point the safest option for us all is to give them Western nuclear weapons until they can develop a deterrent of their own