Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

bear1

Biden now warning Putin against chemical and nuke weapons.

Stating it would change the war completely, I guessing it's a warning the Americans would join the war if he does

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119634141#Comment_119634141

US wouldn't join - but it would designate Russia as a terrorist state (with legal consequences from that), result in unlimited weapons supply & loss of on the fence status from Africa, South America & India (& perhaps even China).

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119630319#Comment_119630319

From what I remember, part of the doctrine was that the bombers would use nuclear weapons to fight their way to a target, then back out again.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119634379#Comment_119634379

They would never have much past the Russian borders before being intercepted at that stage nato and other countries were operating round the clock air patrols or interceptor squadrons who could be out of bed and super Sonic in a few minutes,

A lone bomber could have got lucky but the amount of escort aircraft needed to protect one would have attracted every combat Air for hundreds of miles

Unless your flying a stealth aircraft later into the cold war ,

Sam Russell

It is likely that a V bomber heading on a nuclear strike would not be a lone bomber but one of every bomber and fighter aircraft they had, al on the same mission - along with USA attack aircraft and ICBMs. All heading for pre identified targets, some would be to eradicate defence radar and gunnery, some to attack civilian targets. It would only take a few to get through to achieve assured destruction.

I see Biden has issued a warning to Putin - Do not use nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine. NATO must be prepared to enter this fray under some situations - this might be one of them.

mulbot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119640254#Comment_119640254

It's been happening heavily over the last 20 years.

pixelburp

Well there's a development. On Friday, there will be referenda held to decide if Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (the latter only partially controlled) wishes to become part of Russia. Announced only today, with the votes happening 3 days later? Haha, god. Only the wilfully obtuse would claim these votes are going to pass the smell test.

Perhaps that's the one card Russia had we didn't consider: with the army showing an inability to actually win a ground war, Russia force the sham-referenda to happen ASAP; they rubber-stamp the inevitable resounding "Yes", so the breakaway regions become technically Russia; then the Ukrainian army suddenly becomes the invading force into sovereign Russia.

I can't see any other point in this sudden fast-tracking of referenda in the first place. Perhaps Russia needed some excuse to trigger a full mobilisation of its forces - the hand-wave that they're now being invaded might suffice.

Chips Lovell

Yep, and if anyone is in any doubt about the motivation of this, Medvedev has pretty much spelled it out:

"Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self–defence," Medvedev said in a post on Telegram. "This is why these referendums are so feared in Kyiv and the West."

The only question really is if they're bluffing or not.

Inquitus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642445#Comment_119642445

This is clearly the reason for the lightning referendums, it allows, under Russian doctrine, the use of nukes and will be used as an attempt to scare the west into less support

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642445#Comment_119642445

Well we're definitely going to find out because Ukraine will be calling their bluff, that's for sure.

nigeldaniel

Russia's compleat dependence on fear is more than evident in their latest acts of increasing madness.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-22/h_42e40bebd81d25e48dadf41d742e267e

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1572201219975692289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1572201219975692289%7Ctwgr%5Ef3379ba95d77d261bea48d21ae35cf05fb6b6447%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Feurope%2Flive-news%2Frussia-ukraine-war-news-09-20-22%2Findex.html

Russia is losing the war and their latest act on referendums says it all.

TheValeyard

Putin will speak at 6pm our time.

Has to be some form of mobilisation coming. But what will you give them? I refuse to believe that Russia has been holding back on tanks, bombs, planes, etc.

Also their is very little chance of creating a credible disciplined fighting force in just a few weeks to join this war.

Also expecting the usual nuclear threats. Maybe this time with added spice.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642615#Comment_119642615

Problem is what Russia does after the sham referenda pass. The question if it's just pageantry or an actual path towards escalation. How badly does Russia want to win or save face that it'll legitimise what the rest of the world will see as bullshít? Is the hope that Ukraine will go home and get its shinebox?

TheValeyard

What's the point of the sham he must know that nobody will believe it. Its beyond pathetic.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642974#Comment_119642974

To officially claim it's changed from a special operation and now is war on the motherland as Russia has accepted the regions as being part of Russia followed by partial mobilization. It's about the only reason I can see for the charade to make Putin not have to lose to much face in the change of status. Not that it will change how the Russian people will view it and it will be far from popular and the only benefit I can see possibly is that there are some war related laws (i.e. they can steal more, move more equipment around in the military, throw more people in jail or things along those lines because more untrained bodies to the meat grinder will not do a whole lot).

beggars_bush

Very similar to sudetenland sham before WW2

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119642974#Comment_119642974

As Nody already said, the play has to be to suddenly turn contested Ukrainian land into "Russia", and so changing the whole nature of the theatre of war. Presumably the broader intent was this to happen across all of Ukraine, until the locals said uhm, no thanks.

bear1

It has just become even more dangerous now.

Turkey has even now said that Russia should leave Ukraine... Turkey!

India also voicing their displeasure.

Ukraine needs to get those towns asap. I fear once the votes pass and they absorb it into Russia then that will be end of it.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643139#Comment_119643139

Why would that be the end of it? It's not like the Ukrainians, who are currently rolling back Russian gains, will care one jot what the Russians think is or is not part of Russia. Same goes for Ukraine's western backers.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643139#Comment_119643139

It won't change Ukraine's resolve. The provinces are theirs to retake. The only thing that might happen - and it's a big "might" IMO - is the international community blinks and decides to strongarm a ceasefire and Ukraine to recognise the legitimacy of those referenda. Which seems unlikely, given how obviously sham the elections are going to be. It'd take some poker face for the West to suddenly pretend the referenda were legit.

Assuming they go ahead! It's also possible the remaining fight in those regions decided now's the time to react and interfere with the "election" process, making it impossible to conduct.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643139#Comment_119643139

No it won't be the end of it...Ukraine is not for turning, and that's for sure!!! But what it will do is ratchet up preparations for massive strikes against Russian targets if they deploy nuclear / biological weapons. Once Putin does that, all bets are off...no more western restraint, and letting Ukraine handle Russia by themselves. Any blowback from nuclear fallout, and NATO will be involved.

VinLieger

Things looking more and more unstable in Moscow, things might hopefully be coming to an end for Putin

Nody

Well the duma has passed the second and third reading of new war laws with harsher penalties for soldiers who disobey orders, fail to turn up or destroy equipment during war. I'd say it's pointing very much in one direction where things are going in Russia (Mother Russia wants you to sign up today! Thank you for volunteering by being around when our press gangs came around!).

Russian lawmakers on Tuesday approved legislation to toughen punishments for soldiers for wartime acts, including desertion and surrender. 

Under the amendments endorsed by the State Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, there will be a 10-year prison sentence for desertion, failure to report for military service, and surrender.

Looting will be punishable by 15 years in prison, while destruction of weapons carries a maximum term of five years.

The amendments also introduce the concepts of mobilization, martial law, wartime, and armed conflict that were previously not mentioned in the Russian Criminal Code.

According to the bill, mobilization, martial law, wartime, and armed conflict will be considered as aggravating circumstances, and entail more severe punishments.

The legislation has to be passed by the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, before it can be signed into law by President Vladimir Putin.

bear1

I think my post was misunderstood.

I meant the end of it in the sense of that Ukraine's fight will become even harder, I would suspect that Putin would push for all out war and that isn't something the West could solve with just sending military aid. I would imagine it would end up inching closer to a ww3 scenario.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643577#Comment_119643577

Why do you think it's looking unstable? Genuine question.

bear1

This is getting confusing

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0920/1324322-ukraine/

Yet the guardian states Putin has postponed any sort of announcement.

Edit: read it again, just a preparation and not formal acceptance.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119643832#Comment_119643832

Theres a lot of good analysis pointing out that even if he moves forward with general mobilisation it wont change much in the short or even medium term as they dont have the infrastructure or supplies to support even their current army and general mobilisation will cripple the economy as well as massively reduce production vital to the effort to a halt not to m,ention simply feeding the russian population.

johnnyskeleton

Attacks on Crimea did not result in full mobilisation, so Im not sure how these referenda will cause it. The big problem for Putin is that if hes been telling his country that the war or whatever he chooses to call it has been going very well for Russia, fully mobilising should not be needed. It would expose the lies.

We hear about all the North Korean weapons, prisoners going Wagner group, soldiers being tricked into thinking theyre on manouvres etc. But as far as the casual Russian observer of the news knows, their special military operation has been going well. Like us being told that the peacekeeping mission in X country is doing good work.

Imagine if the government were to say that the peacekeeping mission is going badly and we now have to have conscription because we are at war with Lebanon.

So I dont think annexing those territories will lead to an escalation of the war or mobilisiation.

Instead, and perhaps optimistically, I see it as a much more desparate move. Politically, after 6/7 months, both Russia and Ukraine needed a political win to keep everyone on board. Ukraine got theirs in spectacular fashion. Putin feels the need to present the Russian people with a win.

The narrative will be "I know it went on long and we have lost many soldiers, but Im pleased to announce its worth it as Russia now has X0,000km2 additional territory, X million Russian citizens have been returned to the motherland and wr have secured the coastline beyond Crimea".

Whether they can hold it or not is the gamble, and its looking fairly good that Ukraine might make some more minor territorial advances before Xmas or, if theyre really lucky, the troops in Kherson will retreat or surrender. But that is not guaranteed.

Putin is politically gambling on annexing the territory, not losing it militarily and then surviving Politically until Spring.

Its a calculated risk for him, but he needs to take it for his political survival. I dont think there is anything more dramatic than that about the referenda and speeches though!

We shall see tomorrow, in any event!

Apparently tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. Irish time President Putin is supposed to make his speech and announce some form of major escalation. According to the president of Turkey, Vladimir Putin is looking to end the war quickly, although I don't think he clarified why Putin is suddenly expressing urgency in ending the current war in Ukraine.

I've read one report that apparently the Russians have moved 800 or more aircraft to various positions around Ukraine and finally, Belarus is preparing to enter the conflict.

I have also read reports that Ukraine is transferring large amounts of reserves from Kiev and Odessa for an all-out assault on Russian positions.

http://t.me/asbmil

And yes, before anyone mentions I know this is a Russian source but I don't care.

Gatling

No Russia Hasn't moved 800 aircraft anywhere near Ukraine and there's no reports of Ukrainan reserves being called out for an all out assault.

Conspiracy theory's .