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Fine Gael Demographic

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  • Registered Users Posts: 67,237 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SF would have been shut out until FG FF tried coalition IMO. They might cling to power again if the numbers stack up and they can find a few extra independents etc.

    Problem for FF and FG now is how do they answer the question, 'will you go into a coalition again with each other?' They won't get away with pretending they won't anymore. They will suffer if they campaign on the status quo arrangement and one or the other will take the fall for this government if they go on 'we won't do that again' ticket.

    Tricky one to negotiate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    I can see SF becoming FF mk 2 in the next 20 years. Loudly Republican, left-of-centre, etc. etc. - FF may well die off or hang around by their fingernails for a time. Not a bad thing either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,237 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Just to be clear, your position is that it is blind luck that we have one of the highest standards of living in the world?



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    I missed this epic comment.

    So you propose we get in greater and greater debt? Who do you think will continue to lend to us? Do we pay interest on these borrowings at all? This is hilarious stuff.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Well they still have a bit of a hangover from the 'up the 'Ra' element, and a lot of the TDs currently elected are very very weak (probably people that SF did not expect to get elected) but as SF continues to gain traction with the electorate, you can see more ambitious career politician types seeing them as a route to career success rather than FF.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,768 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Even if one of FF or FG is decimated (and its looking far more likely to be FF at this stage), it would make far more sense for them to be in opposition then in a SF led govt. If FF get decimated they can help SF over the top. If FG get decimated they sit back and let SF and FF come to some arrangement and hope to benefit like SF did the Confidence and Supply arrangement.

    Ideologically FG are far, far further away from contemplating a coalition with SF than FF. As long as the latter exists there is no way that FG will go into coalition with SF.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    I agree it is unlikely, but there is no way, that anything could be ruled out. How often have we been proved massively wrong, its so common, its nearly the norm. trump, brexit etc...



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,237 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What happens if the new coalition do get a handle on the crisises that are decimating the power swap? The gambit to stay in opposition looks a bit more like hari kari if that happens.

    I don't know if they can usher in a new way, but I'm so fed up with the incumbents I am willing to give it a go. There are more like me every day, judging from the polls.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,505 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    There is no basis on which a SF/FG coalition would work.

    There is no way FG would support a SF budget that sees their vote base being targeted for tax increases.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 67,237 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    FF and FG need to realise a proper coalition is about compromise. The people are saying in GE's that they want a bit of both, i.e. what FF or FG are offering and what SF are offering. Coalition is not about one dominant and the other subordinate. That is just how we have been conditioned to see them. For instance, here is the motion in front of the SF Ard Fheis tomorrow, which will probably be spun as a nefarious undermning of the state, but is there really anything to fear in this? Why would any democrat not want this?




  • Administrators Posts: 53,505 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Parties can only compromise within certain parameters if they wish to remain credible.

    I would be pretty confident that there is no voter saying they want a bit of SF and a bit of FG. Who would vote in such a manner? It wouldn't make sense. The two parties are as close to opposites as you will get in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    I think SocDems are missing out on a trick here and should be vying to make a coalition party with SF in the next GE. I feel that people are so soo sooo sick to the fcuking teeth of Ryan, Varadkar, Martin and their merry co-horts that they'd vote in anything, anything - well, perhaps not RBB and Paul Murphy, but you catch my drift.

    SocDems are not a party I'd vote for owing to their social policies, but their economic policies (at least as they laid them out under Roisin Shortall) were very good from a point of keeping costs under control and allowing Ireland to become competitive on price. SF on the other hand want to pump up welfare rates and reward the eternally lazy.

    I feel SF tempered by SocDems would be a decent coalition next time out - even though I could never in the past vote for them on their policies in the social and immigration sphere.

    The reason I would float my vote over the middle line to the left (holding my nose as I do) would be that the so called "right" of FF and FG have sold their souls to socially liberal policies while they ramp up their globalist economic policies.

    I'd hope that under SF we'd see at least some nationalism return at least on an economic front - Irish businesses first.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,237 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Don't understand.

    There is the width of a credit card between FG and FF, a FF/SF coalition is possible/credible but a FG/SF one isn't?

    I get that there is a snob/superior attitude in FG, but they had that about FF a wet week ago.

    I think you might be over egging it a bit. FG can do a lot of things if they think the prize is worth it. It's politics at the end of the day.

    As I said it is all about the margins of the final count.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭Ardillaun



    You’re raising what should be a serious matter of concern to FG and FF. Two apples from the same tree, FFG have been in power for generations and have created modern Ireland. As an older person who consistently voted FG when I lived over there, I have been bitterly disappointed by the failure of both parties to manage housing in Dublin, a crisis that has been allowed to fester for three decades. It’s like they’re spectators to what’s happening and the only time they seem to get seriously involved is to humour the nimbys in their constituencies to stop housing going up. Sinn Fein’s appeal to young Dubliners with no particular interest in the North is not mysterious; they talk about the real problems people under 40 face. I was never a fan of theirs but I’ve run out of arguments against them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,106 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    I'm sure the SDs would be willing to work with SF in a broad left coalition if the numbers were there for that after the next election but I think it's entirely sensible of them not to be getting too close to SF at this stage. Challenge for all the smaller left parties in the coming years is to maintain their own separate identities and not be seen as mere adjuncts to SF, because if voters perceive them that way they'll be giving them at most a lower preference.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    I understand your viewpoint, but there has got to be a time when the penny has got to drop that there has never been a more golden opportunity for a left wing government to take the wheel.

    SF and SocDems and even Labour should be formalising a strategy now to take the next GE. The problem is though as we have continually seen with the left is that they are unwilling to compromise even within their own sphere whereas, FF FG and a merry band of ex-party Indos have been able to do so.

    If the numbers got very tight even Aontu could broker the slim margin.

    If the aforementioned parties could tone down their social rhetoric and concentrate on the "economy stupid" they'd manage it.

    Getting tangled up in useless crap like tranny toilets and the likes will deter the more active cohort of voters from sealing their win.

    The reality on the ground is that finally after a decade of decreasing wages and static prices, we've now got weak-to-modest wage increases but tints of hyper-inflation to deal with. SocDems have the ability to speak to this demographic who are most harshly affected (the ones who didn't fook off to Oz when the going got rough in '08).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    There is talk of after robbing workers. Sorry as an ex fg voter, isnt this why many are turning against fg ? They want our vote, but see us as nothing but walking euro signs, to be bled dry ...

    If fg hadnt lied about their income tax decreases and weren't for blowing government spending through the roof, they would currently have a lot more support



  • Registered Users Posts: 45,301 ✭✭✭✭Bobeagleburger


    What changes in income tax are you proposing, and what party will deliver it?

    Income tax in Ireland isn't the worst and a lot of people can avoid paying some with generous pension tax breaks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,106 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    If fg hadnt lied about their income tax decreases and weren't for blowing government spending through the roof, they would currently have a lot more support

    You're clearly absolutely convinced of that but can you not see why FG themselves do not share your analysis? From their perspective voters like you are largely "in the bag" as you have no credible alternatives on the right, and the floating voters they are competing with FF and the soft left parties for overwhelmingly favour spending increases over tax cuts. And lambasting FG on social media for their betrayal of 'the workers' is never going to make them change their mind.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    Listen, they are going to continue haemorrahimg support. Everyone I know who voted for fg are either done with voting in this country or will vote of put of sheer anger / divilment. people are leaving them (fg) in droves, if they think "well we are the least worst option for workers, we have them in the bag". Well, a huge amount of these workers are being robbed on rent and or housing costs, locked out of the market, you think they will look at it like you suggest ? or the reason I outline, it's not my problem. If you think keeping voting for what you perceive is the least worst option is the best move available to me, I disagree. A new party of even the centre or centre right may emerge from the ashes...

    I dont like using the terms right , left etc. I want a government party that runs a proper ship. The comodification of housing to end. Reasonable taxes. Enough of the endless waste...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    A huge reduction in the seats they win, will focus their mind... the workers keep the lights on in this country, nobody else, they would do well to remember that !



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Sinn Fein want to remove the tools the state had to put in place to combat terrorism and organised crime. Whether that is nefarious or not depends on whether you think those things are an issue, I guess.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,237 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    See the use of the 'remove' word there...exactly the type of commentary I was predicting.

    I wonder is there back channel signaling going on with FF's putative next leader Jim O'Callaghan, who would be one of that party's chief voices on law and order issues, who might find it difficult to accept outright calls for abolishment of the SCC.

    All very interesting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85


    wasnt this exactly what happened in the 2011 election though? Many thought FG would get a majority and voted for Labour, as a balance to FG?

    Would FG in theory, be the perfect "balance" to SF in government. Or at least be seen to be that...



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    'Remove' is entirely accurate in relation to the Special Criminal Court, as that is what they are trying to do. If you have a problem with this, take it up with Sinn Fein, rather than the people pointing out what Sinn Fein is saying.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Luxembourgo


    I think everyone would do well to remember that, political parties, media and voters themselves.

    Too often issues that affect a minority are spun as the issue of the day



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,237 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Review and reform would be a better description. There will, if their proposal is accepted, still be a 'Special Court'.

    I disagree with them on this btw and wonder why they are doing it. Hence wondering about back channel signalling. I think personally it should be just gotten rid off with a root and branch reform of the whole system tbh.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yes, in the modern world, debt is our money supply, without it, no mon, no fun! in order to increase and maintain economic activities, someone must be taking on debt in some form, this is done by either the private sector, via credit markets, and when governments run a deficit, i.e. exactly what we done when covid hit, as the private sector was unwilling/unable to take on the debt at the time. the previous economic crash has yet again shown us, running our economies primarily on private debt, i.e. credit, has become too dangerous and too unstable, so we now must embrace further public debt, to try reduce these dangers and instabilities, once again, this is done when our governments run a deficit.

    currently the ecb is buying up government bonds, creating government bonds is how governments effectively increasing the public money supply, i.e. public debt, this is how we can 'afford' it! rates are currently at record low levels, some are in fact negative, i.e. we re effectively being given money to spend, and we wont have to pay the full amount back over time. central banks are currently in a difficult position, our economies are so vulnerable at the moment, an increase in rates could in fact trigger economic slow downs, possible even recessions, i.e. they may not be actually able to raise rates for the foreseeable, and i suspect if they do, they ll be forced to reduce them again, due to the above, so rock on with the bonds!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,683 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    It basically boils down to identity. Thankfully, due to our electoral system, we haven't ended up with the sort of binary "them vs us" scenarios that you see in the USA and England. That's not for lack of trying though on the behalf of the social media warriors in both FG & SF. This divide is especially pronounced in Dublin. In the recent by-election FG got a kicking in their heartland. However, even though that was a left-wing constituency SF didn't benefit at all. Instead the votes went mostly to Labour because even though SF ran a suitable candidate for the area, those voters were never going to identify themselves with her running for that party.


    Yes there are economic differences between FG & SF. Let's be honest though, it's not like FG haven't been happy to spray money around in recent times. Likewise I'm sure if it came to it SF would be happy to compromise on their areas. It won't be policy differences that keep them apart (even though that's what they will use as the excuse). No, it will be the other thing. The thing that people feel in their gut but maybe won't be so quick to say out loud.



This discussion has been closed.
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