FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

pauldry · 26-11-2021 9:49am

Yup there's a hint of an Easterly towards mid December being talked about. Very tentative signals yet though.

mcburns07 · 26-11-2021 10:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118222188#Comment_118222188

https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gav is a UK based weather forecaster. Puts up very comprehensive videos on his Youtube page most days discussing the latest charts. Worth a follow.

Gonzo · 26-11-2021 12:11pm

The Easterly on the GFS 00z was an isolated cold outlier and is now completely gone on the 06z. Overall the models are in agreement to a mild first half of December with the Atlantic a bit more lively than it has been in recent times but not as lively as you would expect during the early part of Winter. The PV is getting it's act together quickly now so the next few weeks could well be fairly zonal and relatively mild once we get the cool weather out of the way this weekend. We will probably end with a generally mild run up to mid December/Christmas with some brief cooler north-westerly interludes and maybe after that things may begin to change to something more seasonal. My money is still on January or February to deliver a noteworthy week of winter fun.

As for this thread, it will soon be retired to make way for the great Winter 2021/2022 FI Charts of hopes and dreams!

esposito · 26-11-2021 2:18pm

That’s exactly the way I see things panning out. Mild or very mild right up to Christmas Day. Atlantic in charge unfortunately because of the PV doing its thing.

Dazler97 · 26-11-2021 2:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118225018#Comment_118225018

Oh ye I've watched his videos

26-11-2021 3:50pm

This was the GFZ 12 Z +240 for yesterday, 11 days ago

A bit out..

mcburns07 · 26-11-2021 4:18pm

I think we’ve seen in recent weeks how accurate the models are beyond 5 days. Hard to call how December will play out.

Dazler97 · 26-11-2021 4:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118225018#Comment_118225018

Ye he's alright I prefer the the other person

Donegal Ken · 28-11-2021 9:57am

Just for the Archives for 9 days time. Ecmwf hut it hard last night 😂

Meteorite58 · 28-11-2021 12:07pm

Roaring Jet again, charts been showing possible disturbances around next weekend / start of the following week, wetter then of late also coming in off the Atlantic. They would have to evacuate the W coast with the above charts 😁

Cork2021 · 28-11-2021 1:48pm

if that storm in 9 days time came off! That’s some serious wind! Meteorite is right west coast would need to be evacuated! 200kph plus winds!! Highly unlikely of course

Gonzo · 28-11-2021 2:11pm

The return to properly mild after this weekend is turning into a bit of a bust. I've noticed over the past 2 days each GFS run has very gradually dialed down the mildness for the coming week. We do get a very brief tick up in temperatures on Monday but temperature slide away again for much of the coming week and could remain a degree or two below average for much of the week. It won't be properly cold this week but it's not going to be mild either other than some very brief moments of mild.

We will be entering a more unsettled period as well over the coming week and some of this precipitation could turn wintry in places at times particularly over high ground from Wednesday/Thursday onwards.

The Trend line is now below average for much of the coming week and with each GFS run, this cooler than average trend line is extending further along into December. Apart from second half of tomorrow and Tuesday which will be mild, the rest of the week will be held back into single digits by day and night. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some even colder trends appearing in FI within the next week.

This is probably my last post here for the Autumn. The all important Winter FI threads will appear over the next few days.

Billcarson · 28-11-2021 5:48pm

image.png.f8a7523696d58cf877d1d35e98b51e49.png

Out at 234 hrs on the gfs 12z .

Nice chart if its cold that we are after and not bad charts at earlier time frames aswell.

PokeHerKing · 28-11-2021 6:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118236065#Comment_118236065

Yes 12z even better than the 6z. ECM needs a big flip this evening before getting my hopes up!

pauldry · 28-11-2021 6:24pm

Ya it will be cold but probably uneventful by those charts. Might be a bit of ice as in 6c by day and -2c at night. But the trend is better than before.

Parts of UK got snow today judging by football ⚽️