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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-09-2021 2:03pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note


    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Autumn 2021.


    If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.


    Thanks


    Summer 2021 is over and thankfully it brought a huge improvement compared to 2020. August was the poorest month of the summer but we did get 6 sunny and warm days towards the end of the month. It turned alot cooler in the final days of the month with chilly easterly/north-easterly winds and banks of cloud. We are still in this setup as we start September with plenty of cloud and temperatures around average or a little bit below.

    The current dry and cloudy spell will last another few days before we see some changes happening. There is alot of uncertainty in the models but currently the GFS has it turning briefly warmer early next week with another ridge of high pressure and winds from a warmer wind direction than we have currently.

    This could get temperatures back into the high teens or low twenties in the early part of next week.

    The GFS attempts to bring in much cooler and more unsettled conditions from the north west establishing an autumnal flavour to the weather.

    By the middle of the month the GFS brings back the Azores high with plenty of dry weather, so the unsettled conditions may not last long and may not happen at all with so much uncertainty in the models after this weekend.




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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭ scooby77


    Seems to huge disparity between ECM and GFS in FI...ECM going for significant low (hurricane remnants?) too close for comfort around 15th/16th, but GFS has blocking high keeping same low ( Though not as severe) off in mid Atlantic right up to end of run. Think MT in GFS camp going on today's forecast.

    Thoughts?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Looked at GFS a couple of times. Some runs are showing a very strong storm in early October others take it up to Greenland.

    It depends on where the high pressure positions itself before this. May not even show up in the next run. Anyways its 300hrs away 🤪

    Just trying to find some interesting weather bar this benign



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    This must be the most peculiar hurricane track forecast I've ever seen. Can anyone remember one like this? Heading Northeast towards Iceland but recurving Northwest towards Greenland as an extratropical?






  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Cork2021


    Can anyone put this into context? All I’m seeing is the possibility of cold snaps?? Also is this lad reliable?





  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Cork2021




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes November definitely looks closer to normal temperatures than we've been used to but for Ireland that's about 7 to 11c with some night frost.

    Mild weather never too far away either so could be a mild cool flip scenario like this week but less extreme mild.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,933 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    Northerly getting closer on tonight's GFS



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,409 ✭✭✭ Danno


    If that low near Greenland tracks up its western coast it could help northern blocking to establish.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,317 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    Charts are all over the place the last week or so,usually indicative of a large pattern change.



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