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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-09-2021 1:03pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Mod Note


    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Autumn 2021.


    If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.


    Thanks


    Summer 2021 is over and thankfully it brought a huge improvement compared to 2020. August was the poorest month of the summer but we did get 6 sunny and warm days towards the end of the month. It turned alot cooler in the final days of the month with chilly easterly/north-easterly winds and banks of cloud. We are still in this setup as we start September with plenty of cloud and temperatures around average or a little bit below.

    The current dry and cloudy spell will last another few days before we see some changes happening. There is alot of uncertainty in the models but currently the GFS has it turning briefly warmer early next week with another ridge of high pressure and winds from a warmer wind direction than we have currently.

    This could get temperatures back into the high teens or low twenties in the early part of next week.

    The GFS attempts to bring in much cooler and more unsettled conditions from the north west establishing an autumnal flavour to the weather.

    By the middle of the month the GFS brings back the Azores high with plenty of dry weather, so the unsettled conditions may not last long and may not happen at all with so much uncertainty in the models after this weekend.




«134

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looks like a change in weather patterns coming up next week after the warm start to the week ( ECM showing Weds very warm also ) with an upper trough over Ireland giving possible instability leading to convective type weather with the chance of some heavy falls of thundery rain at times perhaps , ,models very different at this stage for the end of the week, ECM has LP brining some very wet weather, GFS builds Hp.


    Been watching how the models are predicting the track of Larry over the last few days, has been showing various scenarios with the ECM more in the picture now showing it currently to track well below Ireland and the GFS to track towards Iceland. Early days and confidence of track is quite low at this stage but a bit of interest to see if we are going to be impacted in any way by wind ,rain or swell.

    Not unusual for the models to go a bit haywire when ex Hurricanes /ex Tropical storms track up into our latitudes, would expect plenty of different charts but will see what the trend is, could easily just have no impact.

    GFS showing the Jet come into life and the Atlantic get more mobile at the end of it's run ,of course to be expected at some stage coming into the Autumn .








  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 401 ✭✭scooby77


    Seems to huge disparity between ECM and GFS in FI...ECM going for significant low (hurricane remnants?) too close for comfort around 15th/16th, but GFS has blocking high keeping same low ( Though not as severe) off in mid Atlantic right up to end of run. Think MT in GFS camp going on today's forecast.

    Thoughts?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM over the last few runs seems to have come around to the GFS trend of Hp and more settled weather out to +240hrs . After the unsettled few days coming up from midweek into the weekend ( might not be too bad Sat and Sun ) should see rain taper off ,looks like less rain again next week, not all dry but amounts currently look small getting up to the high teens again next week for a few days. No winds to speak of either at this stage although GFS going on to deepen a LP to the S of Ireland at the end of the run which as it looks now would bring in rain also, but too far away to know atm.

    All the models showing what will be ex tropical storm Larry head up into around Greenland at this stage.

    The GFS showing a breakdown from +240 hrs, was showing a lot of Hp in previous runs but that is pure FI

    UKMO looks to be following suit and ICON looking more like the GFS also.



    Cant delete below blanks.






  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    Models turning more like Autumn later next week with cooler sourced air coming down from the NW . ECM looks livelier brining Lp's nearer to us but would need to see a trend build up with this. Rain picking up for the Western half of the country from these charts and heavier again along Atlantic coastal counties. To be expected at some stage of course as we ease into Autumn. Looks like the heating will be going on and fires lit soon. GFS out in Fi looks to get a bit milder again later in the weekend , will see.










  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Temperatures holding quite well until later in the week , especially for Southern counties, cooler further North, charts showing to cool down over the weekend into the following week. Not as wet or windy next week as earlier shown, still a lot breezier then the extended calm weather over the last couple of months. Next Weekend has the look of being wet and windy for part of it . Early indications of temperatures getting down low at night in the following week but as seen this week the temperatures got modified quite a bit so will see.






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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After the benign week coming ECM turns wet and windy at times along Atlantic coasts from around Sunday, currently showing some very wet days and fairly blustery along coastal counties, GFS showing dominant LP but not as windy and wet . UKMO and ICON showing LP gearing up. All showing frontal rain bands at times moving in over Ireland. Temperatures staying up to the mid teens perhaps.








  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Met Eireanns forecast for next week more in line with the ECMWF than the GFS : FURTHER OUTLOOK: Early next week looks unsettled and cooler with Atlantic depressions expected to bring blustery showers on Monday, and further rain and breezy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.


    After Sundays blustery wet day currently looking very windy Tues and Weds with possible heavy rains, cooling down too. I think the ECM has been firming up on this somewhat . Will see tonight's output.







  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looked at GFS a couple of times. Some runs are showing a very strong storm in early October others take it up to Greenland.

    It depends on where the high pressure positions itself before this. May not even show up in the next run. Anyways its 300hrs away 🤪

    Just trying to find some interesting weather bar this benign



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Unsettled outlook , lot of rainfall potential more so the Western half of the country especially Atlantic coastal counties and no doubt risks of spot or local flooding at times, Winds although blustery at times not an issue at this stage but the Atlantic looks mobile with areas of LP and waves developing so possible at some stage for a windier spell. ECM shows some deeper systems at the end of the run, GFS very unsettled all the way out to the end of its run.


    Generally cooler then of late, a few rises in temperatures as fronts go through but think it will feel more Autumnal.







  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Unsettled outlook from the ECMWF with a mobile Atlantic and fast Jet .Will be seeing where Sam ends up and what influence it might have on our weather next week,. That time of the year when we start to get steeper temperature gradients helping storms to form. Currently showing some windy days and lots of rainfall.

    In the same timeframe GFS has a different look to it ,not as unsettled, more Hp blocking in place and milder with Sam staying out of the picture.

    This is when the models can go a bit loopy when a tropical storm is projected to move into our latitude .Will see.












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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The last couple of days have seen the models move more towards projecting the track of the remnants of Sam much further West away from Ireland, showing it to calm down and less rainfall also and looking milder from around midweek. ECM currently showing temperatures getting up into the high teens in places in the later half of next week. GFS and ECM quite similar with the GFS building the Hp more. UKMO looks similar out to +144hrs.







  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models in good agreement of Hp building towards the weekend with less rain , mild days and cool nights ( after what now looks like a wet week along Atlantic counties and into the Western half of the country ) . Could have foggy conditions in the calm airs. In fairness GFS was on this earlier.








  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    This must be the most peculiar hurricane track forecast I've ever seen. Can anyone remember one like this? Heading Northeast towards Iceland but recurving Northwest towards Greenland as an extratropical?






  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Big changes on the way as it looks like we will lose the unsettled and Atlantic dominated weather of the past week and replace it with high pressure. This will bring a lift up in the temperatures to possible 20C in places by Thursday. High pressure looks set to dominate into the second week of October and possibly beyond. It remains to be seen how this high pressure will affect our temperatures with fog and low cloud a possibility which would lower the temperature set against higher upper values.

    ECM high pressure dominates from this weekend to the end of the run.

    Once we get past this weekend, the weather will likely cool down further as we make our way towards November particularly if fog and low cloud becomes a feature of this high pressure and winds possibly going into the north or east later.

    GFS largely similar to the ECM with high pressure either over us or very close by throughout the next two weeks.

    If todays charts were to verify we could be looking at a very dry October. It looks like we are getting back into the September pattern of weather from Thursday with a lift up in the temperatures for a few days but after that the position of the high pressure may begin to draw in northerlies or easterlies, this combined with fog, low cloud or night time frosts could end up with us getting quite cool or cold at some point but remaining largely dry.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,333 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM for a couple of runs showing it much cooler than the GFS for a couple of days next week from around Weds as a colder airmass is drawn down from the North, very chilly couple of nights on these charts with frost perhaps before a possible resumption of some milder weather for the weekend. Nothing certain , too much of a difference to know for sure yet.






  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We're now past the halfway point of Autumn in what has been a relatively dry and mild to warm Autumn. It's been largely dry and warm since the end of May and cooler than average temperatures have been rare over the past 5 months. The FI charts are definitely hinting at a fairly major shift in the weather from next weekend to something notably cooler with a north-west to south-east alignment taking place during the first week of November. It is still too early for anything properly wintry but we will most likely start getting frosts and perhaps some wintry precipitation appear on hill tops after next weekend.

    The GFS ensemble shows temperatures sliding away to cooler than average from next weekend and the first week of November is looking on the chilly side with daytime temperatures in the 6 to 10C range.

    It also looks like it will turn properly unsettled over the course of this week. First half of this week looks fairly mild but temperatures will slide away as we move towards next weekend and a further cooling may take place after that.

    ECM looks cool and possibly showery by next weekend as a low pressure dives from Iceland to Scotland leaving us in a chilly north-west flow.

    ECM finishes up with a ridge over us but it could be fairly chilly under this with some frost or fog.

    Temperatures could well end up between 2 and 4C below average during the first week of November.

    The GEM also keeps us much cooler from next weekend and possibly more unsettled than what the ECM is showing.

    Looks very windy and cool next weekend.

    After next weekend, the GEM sets up a direct northerly with winds plunging south from the Artic.

    If that verified temperatures could be 4 to 6C below average for the time of year and showers could well begin to turn wintry over northern hills.

    GFS is also looking rather cool with a northerly for next week.

    GFS drops another nasty looking area of low pressure over us by the end of the first week of November and remaining on the chilly side.

    All the models seem in agreement that the warmer than average anomalies which have lasted for several months at this stage, are on the way out and first week of November is shaping up to be on the chilly side and definitely cooler than anything we've had during Autumn up to this point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Can anyone put this into context? All I’m seeing is the possibility of cold snaps?? Also is this lad reliable?





  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Right now there is some positivity as we head towards this winter. Normally at this time of the year the Polar Vortex is powering up very rapidly as we get closer to winter itself. However this year is a bit different, it's only October and we are already seeing signs of minor warming taking place. Some of the models are predicting an increase in this warming which could eventually lead to an SSW as early as December. Because of this zonality is predicted to be weak particularly during the first half of winter. Some models predict weak zonal winds throughout the entire winter period. On top of this we also have an easterly QBO and the sea surface temperatures are starting to look very interesting. Of course none of this guarantee's a decent winter for Ireland/UK but there are certainly some positive signs heading into this winter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭Cork2021




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes November definitely looks closer to normal temperatures than we've been used to but for Ireland that's about 7 to 11c with some night frost.

    Mild weather never too far away either so could be a mild cool flip scenario like this week but less extreme mild.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM short range and medium range charts are really shaping up a cold November for us.

    The short range models shows it getting progressively colder into next week and beyond.

    A week from now the ECM has us under a cool and showery north-westerly.

    We finish up next Friday with a direct northerly or slight North-easterly getting going bringing down some very cold air for the time of year with an early taste of winter perhaps.

    Temperatures by this point between 4 and 7C below average.

    Looking beyond the short range models and things become fairly interesting but it has to be taken with a huge grain of salt for now as we are now into a very unreliable timeframe.

    Towards the middle of November and extending into the second half of the month we get northern blocking with a big area of high pressure stretching from western Russia, through Scandinavia and across to Iceland and Greenland. If this verified we would set up a cold easterly and any precipitation may begin to turn wintry particularly over high ground.

    As we head into December the northern blocking is maintained and winds potentially screeching in from the east/north-east.

    Will be interesting to see how this develops as we enter November. Huge grain of salt for now but it does look like the first week to 10 days of November are going to be chilly, certainly alot colder than anything we have seen this autumn. This also appears to be a major pattern shift away from the warm temperature anomalies that begin at the end of May and has persisted all through the summer and 2/3rds of Autumn.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    All models have basically flipped on yesterdays output. We will still get a brief cold snap next week but after that it looks like a return of the mild and the south-westerlies.

    In reality we will probably end up with a few weeks of temperatures alternating between brief cold north-westerlies and mild south-westerlies.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Models still playing around with some brief northerlies or north-westerlies later in the month after this weeks cold spell.

    This one is very unlikely but if something similar were to come off, it bodes well for the winter if we see charts showing proper northerlies this early in the season. At the same time it wouldn't be great if we got lots of cold throughout November but it's good to see the models teasing this early.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,538 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Northerly getting closer on tonight's GFS



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Looks decent, however that GFS 12z Operational is an isolated outlier on it's own. Majority of the other runs are mild or around average to slightly below. Still good to see the models teasing a colder outbreak into the second half of November.

    ECM 12z is also making an attempt at the end of it's run with a high pressure making it's way towards Greenland, If only we could go on a bit further to see where the high ends up.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,735 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Certainly an interesting array of charts in past few days with highly unusual patterns to be seen in November. However, they have all been outliers in one way or another, and we have been here before in previous Novembers too that I have come to expect these crazy runs to just appear every year at this point.

    UKMO at days 5-7 this morning caught my eye though as the model inflates a ridge from the south into a proper blocking area of high pressure that pushes northward and allows a feed of cold air from the north into Scandinavia. At the same time, there is a decent attempt at warm air advection out to our west courtesy of a low to the south of Greenland - this would amplify the ridge further and likely send it northward again if we were to go on another day. I would also note that there is a lack of a Russian high blocking the flow of air from the northeast - this was a noteworthy feature of the weather last winter and why up to early February easterly flows were quite lacking.

    This as with other solutions seems to be on its own at this moment with no other model smelling the coffee besides maybe the ICON. Whatever happens, there is a lot to keep an eye on right now. I can't provide an educated guess as to what to expect or could happen as the drivers that I normally look at don't provide much use because the signals are weak. The troposphere and stratosphere also seem to be disconnected with a rapidly strengthening stratospheric polar vortex but all these crazy model runs keep showing which is not what you would expect in a strong SPV event (the opposite of a stratospheric warming).


    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    If that low near Greenland tracks up its western coast it could help northern blocking to establish.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Charts are all over the place the last week or so,usually indicative of a large pattern change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,735 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z is at it again with Greenland blocking and a fairly cold northeasterly from 19 November. More than likely be a cold outlier again though.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭Cork2021




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Certainly trending colder if only frosty for the end of the month.

    This is the mild muck we usually get in December so the cold might set in earlier than March or April this Winter.

    Models like to predict cold at the end of November though as I've seen it many years and it's ended been 10 or 11c



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 18z isn't cold like the 12z, however more runs are turning colder than average, a definite downward trend in temperatures from November 17th with at least 3 of them getting close to -10C uppers at the very end. We may have to wait a few more days to see if the ECM and GEM follow.

    Uppers look warmer than average until the 17th but if high pressure takes control from this weekend and into next week, those warm uppers may well not be reflected on the ground if clear skies take hold with night time frosts and fog a possibility, so air temperatures could turn fairly chilly.

    GFS is also mostly dry over the next 2 weeks with barely any rain away from the north-west.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,735 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    0z brings the cold back and it’s the coldest run yet for how low the 850s get. Don’t know what it is with the GFS consistently over-amplifying this mid-Atlantic ridge at the moment.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,735 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    All gone on 12z operational now again, FI looks zonal even 😂 maybe now things will calm down instead of these overamplified cold outliers.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    St Patrick's Day is looking like an ice age on CFS.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    12z very mild indeed and the colder outliers now also pulled back into milder territory. GEM and ECM also both very mild from current frame to the last frame. No real sign of any cold between now and the 3rd week of November.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,899 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    It's all very interesting when the models flip flop! When will there be a reasonable consensus?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,438 ✭✭✭esposito


    My big fear is that this mild weather will continue into December and into most of January which to be honest is quite plausible as we’ve had many horror winters (from a coldies perspective) in recent times. Hated the winters of 16/17, 18/19, 19/20.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya Winter doesn't really exist anymore just darkness and a few cold days. Most days are 8 to 14c in "Winter"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,802 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I have a feeling things will "flip" at some stage over the coming months - just like we went from near record cold during April/May to a memorable summer this year.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The flip is bound to happen at some stage over the next 2 months. We are close to an uninterrupted 6 month warmer than average anomaly at the moment:

    June, July, September and October were very much warmer than average. August was still warmer than average but only ever so slightly.

    November is currently warmer than average by about a degree already and this may become considerably warmer than average within the next week.

    December could be fairly mild too however the flip could occur just after Christmas or early January.



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The Atlantic seems dead, so what brings warmth in summer could bring cold in winter.

    id be happy enough with the dryness continuing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 319 ✭✭almostthere12


    The end of the ECM run this evening is looking positive for colder weather on the 20th, will be interesting to see if it continues that tomorrow!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 12z also looking a little bit better. I think the most likely outcome is a big cold plunge will take place into central and eastern Europe during the 3rd week or 4th week of November and we will get a mainly dry and cool swipe for a day or so with high pressure just to our west keeping the real cold and unsettled conditions more towards Germany and down into eastern Europe and possibly Greece. At the same time if this comes off it may well lead to the first proper sightings of frost this season.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Yes. At least some interest to keep an eye on. Yesterday evenings runs were dire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Will be interesting to see how far the snow cover will encroach into Europe. Plenty built up so far across Russia.


    last year or the year before (all a blur with Covid) we had a relatively good set up but there was a lack of depth to the cold pool in Europe at the time. It fizzled out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,295 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looking at charts there's not much to get excited about yet.

    Everyday I look there seems to be overriding mild weather like this week with some rain at times.

    Then around the 20th to 24th November a cold spell of temperatures probably 7c by day but then back to the 10 to 13c nonsense and 8c nights.

    So looked at CFS for a laugh but charts on it don't really change until 2022.

    It's quite likely we will have one of the mildest Novembers (I think 2011 is the mildest but hard to get info) and we may even have one of the mildest December's too.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,063 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The long term models are mostly hinting at cold for January with zonality back in business for February so I'm guessing we may see a week or two of cold after Christmas. This November will most likely finish well above average temperatures and our Decembers are usually very mild too, particularly around Christmas. Even in the 1980's and early 1990's we rarely got snow before Christmas. November/December 2010 is really the only time I can remember proper wintry conditions before Christmas, so I'm not expecting much in the way of cold between now and Christmas other than maybe the odd brief toppler.

    The current pattern of very mild south-westerlies and the Azores high ridging over us has been with us for the most part since the end of May so we appear stuck in this rut for now. We need a major pattern change to shift the current setup.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    I've been watching GFS for the first time in a while this week. It has done as it's always done and thrown a cold teaser into the end of run a run only for it to disappear or be kicked down the road into a later time-frame in subsequent runs. 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 319 ✭✭almostthere12


    It has 2 attempts off it in the 6z with of course the last one being the biggest teaser!



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