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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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01-09-2021 1:03pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Autumn 2021.
If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.
Thanks
Summer 2021 is over and thankfully it brought a huge improvement compared to 2020. August was the poorest month of the summer but we did get 6 sunny and warm days towards the end of the month. It turned alot cooler in the final days of the month with chilly easterly/north-easterly winds and banks of cloud. We are still in this setup as we start September with plenty of cloud and temperatures around average or a little bit below.
The current dry and cloudy spell will last another few days before we see some changes happening. There is alot of uncertainty in the models but currently the GFS has it turning briefly warmer early next week with another ridge of high pressure and winds from a warmer wind direction than we have currently.
This could get temperatures back into the high teens or low twenties in the early part of next week.
The GFS attempts to bring in much cooler and more unsettled conditions from the north west establishing an autumnal flavour to the weather.
By the middle of the month the GFS brings back the Azores high with plenty of dry weather, so the unsettled conditions may not last long and may not happen at all with so much uncertainty in the models after this weekend.
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Looks like a change in weather patterns coming up next week after the warm start to the week ( ECM showing Weds very warm also ) with an upper trough over Ireland giving possible instability leading to convective type weather with the chance of some heavy falls of thundery rain at times perhaps , ,models very different at this stage for the end of the week, ECM has LP brining some very wet weather, GFS builds Hp.
Been watching how the models are predicting the track of Larry over the last few days, has been showing various scenarios with the ECM more in the picture now showing it currently to track well below Ireland and the GFS to track towards Iceland. Early days and confidence of track is quite low at this stage but a bit of interest to see if we are going to be impacted in any way by wind ,rain or swell.
Not unusual for the models to go a bit haywire when ex Hurricanes /ex Tropical storms track up into our latitudes, would expect plenty of different charts but will see what the trend is, could easily just have no impact.
GFS showing the Jet come into life and the Atlantic get more mobile at the end of it's run ,of course to be expected at some stage coming into the Autumn .
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ECM over the last few runs seems to have come around to the GFS trend of Hp and more settled weather out to +240hrs . After the unsettled few days coming up from midweek into the weekend ( might not be too bad Sat and Sun ) should see rain taper off ,looks like less rain again next week, not all dry but amounts currently look small getting up to the high teens again next week for a few days. No winds to speak of either at this stage although GFS going on to deepen a LP to the S of Ireland at the end of the run which as it looks now would bring in rain also, but too far away to know atm.
All the models showing what will be ex tropical storm Larry head up into around Greenland at this stage.
The GFS showing a breakdown from +240 hrs, was showing a lot of Hp in previous runs but that is pure FI
UKMO looks to be following suit and ICON looking more like the GFS also.
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Models turning more like Autumn later next week with cooler sourced air coming down from the NW . ECM looks livelier brining Lp's nearer to us but would need to see a trend build up with this. Rain picking up for the Western half of the country from these charts and heavier again along Atlantic coastal counties. To be expected at some stage of course as we ease into Autumn. Looks like the heating will be going on and fires lit soon. GFS out in Fi looks to get a bit milder again later in the weekend , will see.
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Temperatures holding quite well until later in the week , especially for Southern counties, cooler further North, charts showing to cool down over the weekend into the following week. Not as wet or windy next week as earlier shown, still a lot breezier then the extended calm weather over the last couple of months. Next Weekend has the look of being wet and windy for part of it . Early indications of temperatures getting down low at night in the following week but as seen this week the temperatures got modified quite a bit so will see.
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After the benign week coming ECM turns wet and windy at times along Atlantic coasts from around Sunday, currently showing some very wet days and fairly blustery along coastal counties, GFS showing dominant LP but not as windy and wet . UKMO and ICON showing LP gearing up. All showing frontal rain bands at times moving in over Ireland. Temperatures staying up to the mid teens perhaps.
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Met Eireanns forecast for next week more in line with the ECMWF than the GFS : FURTHER OUTLOOK: Early next week looks unsettled and cooler with Atlantic depressions expected to bring blustery showers on Monday, and further rain and breezy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.
After Sundays blustery wet day currently looking very windy Tues and Weds with possible heavy rains, cooling down too. I think the ECM has been firming up on this somewhat . Will see tonight's output.
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Unsettled outlook , lot of rainfall potential more so the Western half of the country especially Atlantic coastal counties and no doubt risks of spot or local flooding at times, Winds although blustery at times not an issue at this stage but the Atlantic looks mobile with areas of LP and waves developing so possible at some stage for a windier spell. ECM shows some deeper systems at the end of the run, GFS very unsettled all the way out to the end of its run.
Generally cooler then of late, a few rises in temperatures as fronts go through but think it will feel more Autumnal.
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Unsettled outlook from the ECMWF with a mobile Atlantic and fast Jet .Will be seeing where Sam ends up and what influence it might have on our weather next week,. That time of the year when we start to get steeper temperature gradients helping storms to form. Currently showing some windy days and lots of rainfall.
In the same timeframe GFS has a different look to it ,not as unsettled, more Hp blocking in place and milder with Sam staying out of the picture.
This is when the models can go a bit loopy when a tropical storm is projected to move into our latitude .Will see.
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The last couple of days have seen the models move more towards projecting the track of the remnants of Sam much further West away from Ireland, showing it to calm down and less rainfall also and looking milder from around midweek. ECM currently showing temperatures getting up into the high teens in places in the later half of next week. GFS and ECM quite similar with the GFS building the Hp more. UKMO looks similar out to +144hrs.
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Models in good agreement of Hp building towards the weekend with less rain , mild days and cool nights ( after what now looks like a wet week along Atlantic counties and into the Western half of the country ) . Could have foggy conditions in the calm airs. In fairness GFS was on this earlier.
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Big changes on the way as it looks like we will lose the unsettled and Atlantic dominated weather of the past week and replace it with high pressure. This will bring a lift up in the temperatures to possible 20C in places by Thursday. High pressure looks set to dominate into the second week of October and possibly beyond. It remains to be seen how this high pressure will affect our temperatures with fog and low cloud a possibility which would lower the temperature set against higher upper values.
ECM high pressure dominates from this weekend to the end of the run.
Once we get past this weekend, the weather will likely cool down further as we make our way towards November particularly if fog and low cloud becomes a feature of this high pressure and winds possibly going into the north or east later.
GFS largely similar to the ECM with high pressure either over us or very close by throughout the next two weeks.
If todays charts were to verify we could be looking at a very dry October. It looks like we are getting back into the September pattern of weather from Thursday with a lift up in the temperatures for a few days but after that the position of the high pressure may begin to draw in northerlies or easterlies, this combined with fog, low cloud or night time frosts could end up with us getting quite cool or cold at some point but remaining largely dry.
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ECM for a couple of runs showing it much cooler than the GFS for a couple of days next week from around Weds as a colder airmass is drawn down from the North, very chilly couple of nights on these charts with frost perhaps before a possible resumption of some milder weather for the weekend. Nothing certain , too much of a difference to know for sure yet.
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We're now past the halfway point of Autumn in what has been a relatively dry and mild to warm Autumn. It's been largely dry and warm since the end of May and cooler than average temperatures have been rare over the past 5 months. The FI charts are definitely hinting at a fairly major shift in the weather from next weekend to something notably cooler with a north-west to south-east alignment taking place during the first week of November. It is still too early for anything properly wintry but we will most likely start getting frosts and perhaps some wintry precipitation appear on hill tops after next weekend.
The GFS ensemble shows temperatures sliding away to cooler than average from next weekend and the first week of November is looking on the chilly side with daytime temperatures in the 6 to 10C range.
It also looks like it will turn properly unsettled over the course of this week. First half of this week looks fairly mild but temperatures will slide away as we move towards next weekend and a further cooling may take place after that.
ECM looks cool and possibly showery by next weekend as a low pressure dives from Iceland to Scotland leaving us in a chilly north-west flow.
ECM finishes up with a ridge over us but it could be fairly chilly under this with some frost or fog.
Temperatures could well end up between 2 and 4C below average during the first week of November.
The GEM also keeps us much cooler from next weekend and possibly more unsettled than what the ECM is showing.
Looks very windy and cool next weekend.
After next weekend, the GEM sets up a direct northerly with winds plunging south from the Artic.
If that verified temperatures could be 4 to 6C below average for the time of year and showers could well begin to turn wintry over northern hills.
GFS is also looking rather cool with a northerly for next week.
GFS drops another nasty looking area of low pressure over us by the end of the first week of November and remaining on the chilly side.
All the models seem in agreement that the warmer than average anomalies which have lasted for several months at this stage, are on the way out and first week of November is shaping up to be on the chilly side and definitely cooler than anything we've had during Autumn up to this point.
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ECM short range and medium range charts are really shaping up a cold November for us.
The short range models shows it getting progressively colder into next week and beyond.
A week from now the ECM has us under a cool and showery north-westerly.
We finish up next Friday with a direct northerly or slight North-easterly getting going bringing down some very cold air for the time of year with an early taste of winter perhaps.
Temperatures by this point between 4 and 7C below average.
Looking beyond the short range models and things become fairly interesting but it has to be taken with a huge grain of salt for now as we are now into a very unreliable timeframe.
Towards the middle of November and extending into the second half of the month we get northern blocking with a big area of high pressure stretching from western Russia, through Scandinavia and across to Iceland and Greenland. If this verified we would set up a cold easterly and any precipitation may begin to turn wintry particularly over high ground.
As we head into December the northern blocking is maintained and winds potentially screeching in from the east/north-east.
Will be interesting to see how this develops as we enter November. Huge grain of salt for now but it does look like the first week to 10 days of November are going to be chilly, certainly alot colder than anything we have seen this autumn. This also appears to be a major pattern shift away from the warm temperature anomalies that begin at the end of May and has persisted all through the summer and 2/3rds of Autumn.
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Models still playing around with some brief northerlies or north-westerlies later in the month after this weeks cold spell.
This one is very unlikely but if something similar were to come off, it bodes well for the winter if we see charts showing proper northerlies this early in the season. At the same time it wouldn't be great if we got lots of cold throughout November but it's good to see the models teasing this early.
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Looks decent, however that GFS 12z Operational is an isolated outlier on it's own. Majority of the other runs are mild or around average to slightly below. Still good to see the models teasing a colder outbreak into the second half of November.
ECM 12z is also making an attempt at the end of it's run with a high pressure making it's way towards Greenland, If only we could go on a bit further to see where the high ends up.
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Certainly an interesting array of charts in past few days with highly unusual patterns to be seen in November. However, they have all been outliers in one way or another, and we have been here before in previous Novembers too that I have come to expect these crazy runs to just appear every year at this point.
UKMO at days 5-7 this morning caught my eye though as the model inflates a ridge from the south into a proper blocking area of high pressure that pushes northward and allows a feed of cold air from the north into Scandinavia. At the same time, there is a decent attempt at warm air advection out to our west courtesy of a low to the south of Greenland - this would amplify the ridge further and likely send it northward again if we were to go on another day. I would also note that there is a lack of a Russian high blocking the flow of air from the northeast - this was a noteworthy feature of the weather last winter and why up to early February easterly flows were quite lacking.
This as with other solutions seems to be on its own at this moment with no other model smelling the coffee besides maybe the ICON. Whatever happens, there is a lot to keep an eye on right now. I can't provide an educated guess as to what to expect or could happen as the drivers that I normally look at don't provide much use because the signals are weak. The troposphere and stratosphere also seem to be disconnected with a rapidly strengthening stratospheric polar vortex but all these crazy model runs keep showing which is not what you would expect in a strong SPV event (the opposite of a stratospheric warming).
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GFS 18z isn't cold like the 12z, however more runs are turning colder than average, a definite downward trend in temperatures from November 17th with at least 3 of them getting close to -10C uppers at the very end. We may have to wait a few more days to see if the ECM and GEM follow.
Uppers look warmer than average until the 17th but if high pressure takes control from this weekend and into next week, those warm uppers may well not be reflected on the ground if clear skies take hold with night time frosts and fog a possibility, so air temperatures could turn fairly chilly.
GFS is also mostly dry over the next 2 weeks with barely any rain away from the north-west.
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