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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Certainly trending colder if only frosty for the end of the month.

    This is the mild muck we usually get in December so the cold might set in earlier than March or April this Winter.

    Models like to predict cold at the end of November though as I've seen it many years and it's ended been 10 or 11c



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,270 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    0z brings the cold back and it’s the coldest run yet for how low the 850s get. Don’t know what it is with the GFS consistently over-amplifying this mid-Atlantic ridge at the moment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,270 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    All gone on 12z operational now again, FI looks zonal even 😂 maybe now things will calm down instead of these overamplified cold outliers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry


    St Patrick's Day is looking like an ice age on CFS.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    12z very mild indeed and the colder outliers now also pulled back into milder territory. GEM and ECM also both very mild from current frame to the last frame. No real sign of any cold between now and the 3rd week of November.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,516 ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    It's all very interesting when the models flip flop! When will there be a reasonable consensus?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,237 ✭✭✭esposito


    My big fear is that this mild weather will continue into December and into most of January which to be honest is quite plausible as we’ve had many horror winters (from a coldies perspective) in recent times. Hated the winters of 16/17, 18/19, 19/20.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya Winter doesn't really exist anymore just darkness and a few cold days. Most days are 8 to 14c in "Winter"



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,490 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I have a feeling things will "flip" at some stage over the coming months - just like we went from near record cold during April/May to a memorable summer this year.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The flip is bound to happen at some stage over the next 2 months. We are close to an uninterrupted 6 month warmer than average anomaly at the moment:

    June, July, September and October were very much warmer than average. August was still warmer than average but only ever so slightly.

    November is currently warmer than average by about a degree already and this may become considerably warmer than average within the next week.

    December could be fairly mild too however the flip could occur just after Christmas or early January.



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    The Atlantic seems dead, so what brings warmth in summer could bring cold in winter.

    id be happy enough with the dryness continuing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 217 ✭✭almostthere12


    The end of the ECM run this evening is looking positive for colder weather on the 20th, will be interesting to see if it continues that tomorrow!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 12z also looking a little bit better. I think the most likely outcome is a big cold plunge will take place into central and eastern Europe during the 3rd week or 4th week of November and we will get a mainly dry and cool swipe for a day or so with high pressure just to our west keeping the real cold and unsettled conditions more towards Germany and down into eastern Europe and possibly Greece. At the same time if this comes off it may well lead to the first proper sightings of frost this season.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Yes. At least some interest to keep an eye on. Yesterday evenings runs were dire.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Will be interesting to see how far the snow cover will encroach into Europe. Plenty built up so far across Russia.


    last year or the year before (all a blur with Covid) we had a relatively good set up but there was a lack of depth to the cold pool in Europe at the time. It fizzled out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looking at charts there's not much to get excited about yet.

    Everyday I look there seems to be overriding mild weather like this week with some rain at times.

    Then around the 20th to 24th November a cold spell of temperatures probably 7c by day but then back to the 10 to 13c nonsense and 8c nights.

    So looked at CFS for a laugh but charts on it don't really change until 2022.

    It's quite likely we will have one of the mildest Novembers (I think 2011 is the mildest but hard to get info) and we may even have one of the mildest December's too.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The long term models are mostly hinting at cold for January with zonality back in business for February so I'm guessing we may see a week or two of cold after Christmas. This November will most likely finish well above average temperatures and our Decembers are usually very mild too, particularly around Christmas. Even in the 1980's and early 1990's we rarely got snow before Christmas. November/December 2010 is really the only time I can remember proper wintry conditions before Christmas, so I'm not expecting much in the way of cold between now and Christmas other than maybe the odd brief toppler.

    The current pattern of very mild south-westerlies and the Azores high ridging over us has been with us for the most part since the end of May so we appear stuck in this rut for now. We need a major pattern change to shift the current setup.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    I've been watching GFS for the first time in a while this week. It has done as it's always done and thrown a cold teaser into the end of run a run only for it to disappear or be kicked down the road into a later time-frame in subsequent runs. 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 217 ✭✭almostthere12


    It has 2 attempts off it in the 6z with of course the last one being the biggest teaser!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    I love how quickly you are writing off whole months. Come on, keep the faith! We have a 4.5 month window ahead.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Not really writing off anything, just I think the main chance for wintry weather will be after Christmas/ early in the new year and possibly again in March. All we need is one week of decent cold to make winter memorable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    March snow.. ok.. maybe.

    but come April I want sunshine and dry days. As much as I love snow, I’d rather not see it that late.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry


    The old GFS pub run brings the gravy train down at the end of November. Does it think its 2010 oe something?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup next run has sobered up or maybe I was drunk.....on sweets.

    Mild for the whole run and record breaking mild November results.

    Think I'll have to start my own average temperature blog for Sligo using Finner as a base for past couple of years as I can't seem to get the year to year information anywhere. Do you have to pay for it? Where do Oneric and sryanbreun get it?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,020 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    The trend for the gfs this week is for at least 1 run to bring a cold northerly plunge around the 20th of Nov but then its completely gone on the next few runs. Time will tell I suppose.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,310 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    At the moment the GFS in extended range is poor, can't even pick up a reliable trend as it keeps showing up outlier runs for cold or very mild. if you stripe away the very mild and cool outliers there is still a slight cooling trend towards the end of the month but nothing cold enough to get excited about with temperatures more average compared to the current theme of temperatures well above average.

    The only way we would get decent cold this early is from a direct long fetch northerly with as slight NE tilt to it to get proper cold down from the pole without any Atlantic influence. It's too early in the season for a standard easterly with no cold pool built up yet on the continent. If we were to get an easterly over the next week or two it would probably result in rain or sleet at best and would most certainly be of rain along eastern coasts. I don't mind waiting another 3 to 4 weeks before the fun starts to give us a better chance of tapping into decent cold from the north and east.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,237 ✭✭✭esposito




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,649 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya might as well have a record breakingly mild November so the COP activists can say "see we told ye"



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