FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

PokeHerKing

Choo cho... day 8

Oneiric 3

Just looking at the raw max and mins for Galway alone from this morning's ECM, and about average to barely below average temps with its forecast northerly. Showing potential for the odd sleet/snow shower though.

Storm 10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118179615#Comment_118179615

Fingers crossed 😀

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118179632#Comment_118179632

It all looks so bland, but hopefully we'll scrape a few dustings out of it... should it materialise in the first place that is.

pauldry

Ya make the most of the period from Nov 24th to 27th approx. I feel the mild will get annoyed and replague us all the way to Christmas

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118180120#Comment_118180120

Cold spells or snaps can often be a few weeks apart. So perhaps a chance for another cold spell/ snap for Xmas, even if the first few weeks if dec are generally mild. Getting ahead of myself but that's the way I would think if it.

mcburns07

Paul and Oneric trying so hard to outmoan each other 😂

Gonzo

GFS 06z very cold at times with snow at times across Ireland and temperatures getting close to freezing by day and night.

Gonzo

GFS 12z rolling out, still cold but not as cold as the 6z. Potential of some very stormy and wintry weather as well.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118181924#Comment_118181924

Nice, there’s a consistent theme going which is good

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118181924#Comment_118181924

This is the sort of chart catches my interest.

Gonzo

GEM 12z starting to lean more towards the ECM and GFS.

A deep area of low pressure drops south from Iceland and tries to clear the way for the Northern Express. Would like to see the high a bit further to the west and north tho. Just like the GFS 12z potential for some very windy conditions with plenty of rain and hill snow, followed by sleet and snow showers.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118182254#Comment_118182254

As nice as it is, look at the valid date on it. Nov 30. I know this is the FI thread but it’s just too far out for me to get excited.

The consistent theme of blocking to our north west over Greenland is encouraging however.

pad199207

Could be worse for November….

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118178417#Comment_118178417

Yes, there is good potential JS and it's great we are looking at such charts instead of our default pattern, but as you well know the final outcome could be a cold and dry scenario as opposed to a snowy one. I would love nothing more than a Polar Low to come our way and deliver hours of heavy snow!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118183251#Comment_118183251

Tonight's ECM is a bit of a letdown but shows what easily could happen with next weeks cold spell. ECM has shifted the cold and instability further east and Ireland is left mostly high and dry but still cold. However it is one run out of many good ones recently.

GFS 12z also not as sweet as this morning's run but it's only one run out of 30 and several of the other runs are going colder and more unstable than the operational run. Overall GFS 12z very much supportive of a cold outbreak lasting possibly 5 or 6 days. This is still a week away so can't really take these charts seriously till we get into the start of next week. Hopefully we end up getting that polar low because that would be essential for bringing widespread snow anywhere in the country instead of showers which would limit the snow to northern counties leaving most of the country dry.

Oneiric 3

"The northern winds have found their home.."

Gonzo

The Pub run never fails to disappoint with daytime maximums of -2C!

Of course we are very unlikely to get it as good as this being almost 2 weeks away.

edit: the 18z operational has finished and the other members are rolling out and quite a few of them are colder than the charts above.

Meteorite58

Cold charts indeed and as Gonzo mentioned that GFS a couple of times now ( more so on tonight's run ) has been showing very windy /near stormy at times , currently showing around next Thurs /Fri and a separate system around Sat . Will be interesting to see if the Low pressure systems/ depressions keep developing as has been showing and how they might track and how they will pull the cold air in with them. Currently showing frontal lying snow around next Sat week but will expect chopping and changing plenty of times until the charts start to settle down after the weekend. Plenty of interesting potential scenarios to ponder on. Could you imagine the wind chill if that stormy weather materializes.

MT has been mentioning the recent upgrades to the GFS producing better results, have noticed they were on some weather patterns before the EC recently . A good test to see how they handle the cold predictions and picking out disturbances.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118183464#Comment_118183464

It's like an army descending from the north.

Dazler97

I'm loving the cold model runs for next week, very similar to same week of November 2010

pauldry

Yes it is indeed looking quite wintry. The High will do its best to lie over us and push the cold East but it may only succeed in driving down temperatures further with minus temperatures preceeding the Northern invasion.

The charts are actually the coldest I've seen in many November's. Maybe with all the climate change we might get something extreme.

Gonzo

The charts over the past 4 days are probably the best eye candy I've seen since November/December 2010. Fingers crossed for the magic to happen.

sparrowcar

PokeHerKing

The high is pushing a little too far west on this mornings runs. Still great looking charts with blocking galore. Hopefully the orientation comes back more in our favour on later runs.

Slashermcguirk

Would be great to see some early winter snow! I have to say this feels like one of the driest Novembers i can ever remember in Dublin, just 9mm of rain recorded at Dublin airport for the first 17 days of the month. I always associate November with wet and windy weather but its been the complete opposite.

If precipitation is to arrive later this month, would give anything for it to be snow. still only 574mm of rain recorded for the entire year from January to November at Dublin airport.

sryanbruen

I haven't been liking the trends in runs of past few days with the ridge out to our west trending more and more south. It looks now more like a mid-Atlantic ridge than a Greenland block. This means there is not as much cold air advection southward that would guarantee widespread sea level snow. Looks closer to horrible cold rain for most now. The deep lows being forecast around 27th will also lead to a lot of mixing in the air, be miles better if the airflow was much more slack.

Be a change on the exceptionally mild autumn but nothing especially noteworthy unless the trends reverse with more of a northward push of the high to Greenland.

Gonzo

November is usually one of the wettest months of the year. In 2018 and 2019 Dunsany recorded very high rainfall totals during those Novembers making it the wetting month of 2018 and 2019. This year has been so dry in comparison with only 17.7mm for November and 688mm for 2021 up to this point.

We will be doing well if we get another 10mm of precipitation before the end of November and most of what is predicted to fall is a mixture of rain, sleet and snow.

BLIZZARD7

Just a brief comment for now (will post charts later) but it looks like Winter arrives next week! Possibly with a bang, but that's still to be decided :)

Models still seem to be trying to get a grasp on the emerging pattern, still some concern as Syranbruen noted above^ but not all models are moving that way (UKMO looks particularly good to me).

lapua20grain

Choo Choo