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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Just looking at the raw max and mins for Galway alone from this morning's ECM, and about average to barely below average temps with its forecast northerly. Showing potential for the odd sleet/snow shower though.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,750 ✭✭✭Storm 10




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    It all looks so bland, but hopefully we'll scrape a few dustings out of it... should it materialise in the first place that is.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya make the most of the period from Nov 24th to 27th approx. I feel the mild will get annoyed and replague us all the way to Christmas



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,334 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Cold spells or snaps can often be a few weeks apart. So perhaps a chance for another cold spell/ snap for Xmas, even if the first few weeks if dec are generally mild. Getting ahead of myself but that's the way I would think if it.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 12z rolling out, still cold but not as cold as the 6z. Potential of some very stormy and wintry weather as well.




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Nice, there’s a consistent theme going which is good



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    This is the sort of chart catches my interest.

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GEM 12z starting to lean more towards the ECM and GFS.

    A deep area of low pressure drops south from Iceland and tries to clear the way for the Northern Express. Would like to see the high a bit further to the west and north tho. Just like the GFS 12z potential for some very windy conditions with plenty of rain and hill snow, followed by sleet and snow showers.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,234 ✭✭✭esposito


    As nice as it is, look at the valid date on it. Nov 30. I know this is the FI thread but it’s just too far out for me to get excited.

    The consistent theme of blocking to our north west over Greenland is encouraging however.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,968 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Could be worse for November….






  • Registered Users Posts: 15,672 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes, there is good potential JS and it's great we are looking at such charts instead of our default pattern, but as you well know the final outcome could be a cold and dry scenario as opposed to a snowy one. I would love nothing more than a Polar Low to come our way and deliver hours of heavy snow!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Tonight's ECM is a bit of a letdown but shows what easily could happen with next weeks cold spell. ECM has shifted the cold and instability further east and Ireland is left mostly high and dry but still cold. However it is one run out of many good ones recently.


    GFS 12z also not as sweet as this morning's run but it's only one run out of 30 and several of the other runs are going colder and more unstable than the operational run. Overall GFS 12z very much supportive of a cold outbreak lasting possibly 5 or 6 days. This is still a week away so can't really take these charts seriously till we get into the start of next week. Hopefully we end up getting that polar low because that would be essential for bringing widespread snow anywhere in the country instead of showers which would limit the snow to northern counties leaving most of the country dry.




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    "The northern winds have found their home.."


    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,774 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I'm loving the cold model runs for next week, very similar to same week of November 2010



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes it is indeed looking quite wintry. The High will do its best to lie over us and push the cold East but it may only succeed in driving down temperatures further with minus temperatures preceeding the Northern invasion.

    The charts are actually the coldest I've seen in many November's. Maybe with all the climate change we might get something extreme.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    The high is pushing a little too far west on this mornings runs. Still great looking charts with blocking galore. Hopefully the orientation comes back more in our favour on later runs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,965 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Would be great to see some early winter snow! I have to say this feels like one of the driest Novembers i can ever remember in Dublin, just 9mm of rain recorded at Dublin airport for the first 17 days of the month. I always associate November with wet and windy weather but its been the complete opposite.

    If precipitation is to arrive later this month, would give anything for it to be snow. still only 574mm of rain recorded for the entire year from January to November at Dublin airport.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    November is usually one of the wettest months of the year. In 2018 and 2019 Dunsany recorded very high rainfall totals during those Novembers making it the wetting month of 2018 and 2019. This year has been so dry in comparison with only 17.7mm for November and 688mm for 2021 up to this point.

    We will be doing well if we get another 10mm of precipitation before the end of November and most of what is predicted to fall is a mixture of rain, sleet and snow.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 815 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    Choo Choo



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