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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Apart from brief cold skirting the coast to the East and some cooler but not cold temperatures there is utterly bland weather currently forecast for the next few weeks still.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Yesterdays 12z showed some promise but yeah we're back to the boring runs with yet more high pressure and very little in the way of real cold reaching Ireland. I don't mind the weather being dry, flat and boring throughout the Autumn but by December I would like to see some big changes. We may have to wait till after Christmas/start of January before we will see some actual winter weather. This very mild and relatively dry pattern has been with us for months now, it has to end at some stage. We have one more very mild week to come and the 4th week of November is a bit up in the air right now but could easily end up being fairly bland and dry as well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,750 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Any chance of storms Gonzo or is it a bit early for them



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    There is absolutely no sign of storms or typical Atlantic conveyer belt unsettled conditions any time soon.



  • Registered Users Posts: 395 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    A nice polar low at the end of the month will do nicely if she unleashes.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Lady on weather said "becoming colder over the weekend"

    Seems likely to be a cool end after a mild first 20 days so won't be a record breaker



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    so any updates today? Need a distraction from my head exploding on the covid forum



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Update is encouraging if you like cold but if you hate heating bills no.

    Will probably go down slowly from the heights of 16c midweek to 10c at the weekend and then single figures the week after. Then who knows ? Some runs have moderate cold of 7c others show colder still of 4 or 5c



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭Cork2021




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We need several more days of model watching to see if all the models reach agreement and to determine if the upcoming cold spell is going to be a dry one or a more unsettled period. The depth of cold has yet to be determined as well as the exact track of where it will happen. Right now the GFS and ECM are going for a cool or cold spell but the GEM is still pumping up warmth from the south or south-west.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Day 10 candie

    Post edited by PokeHerKing on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya but it will be probably be a case of remember what the chart from Tuesday had

    We know by now that every cold spell is moderated by the time it hits us with 6 or 7c and continous cold rain in the Northwest



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,672 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The ECM evolution looks too clean, what well could happen is a halfway solution between the GFS and ECM. If that happens it will more likely be cool and dry, than cold and snowy here. Although given sod laws we could end with a Greeland High too far west and we end up in southwesterles by default!

    However a full on Atlantic onslaught for the time being looks unlikely, but for how long given conditions in the stratosphere? Perhaps if we were to get a persistent blocking pattern it might have a positive effect on the strat. M.T must be thinking the window is short given his winter forecast is for a mainly mild first half of Winter



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Would be nice to see if the GEM starts to agree with the GFS and ECM but the GEM is stuck at 156 hours for the past several hours.

    All models are in agreement with it turning colder from Sunday with come cooler air but not properly cold. It still remains to be seen what will happen from midweek next week, will we get the high up to Greenland and the low pressure to drop south clearing the UK and Ireland and introducing proper artic air.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,294 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The GEM failed to go past 156 hours on Wetterzentrale but it's working on other websites.

    The GEM 12z not as cold as the ECM or GFS but does get in some low level cold.

    Wouldn't take much for this to go as cold as the other models.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,719 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    This place is very quiet last few days!

    Some extraordinary charts on offer and yet some of the above commentary 're cool and dry'

    Its like as if the charts are showing a 24hour toppler. If the ecm and gfs don't excite he may need a new hobby because for Ireland it doesn't get any better!!

    Now fair enough it may not happen (I think it will) but for heaven's sake appreciate how much potential



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Very interesting to follow but probably a bit too far out yet to get overly excited about?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,968 ✭✭✭pad199207


    All very lovely to look at there’s no doubt about it that’s for sure.

    Even though it’s nearly 10 years ago now but 2012 scars still firmly in place with that phantom easterly. Christ when I think of it now 😰

    But to be fair every winter since then it’s kind of kept me sane.



  • Registered Users Posts: 395 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Come the weekend and were still looking at runs like today then there will be a bit of a ramp. Could easily go sideways. Nice to see good strong signals on the major players.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya think even the members are sick of predicting mild charts now so theyr just going what the hell let's predict cold to be more seasonal.

    The only thing certain is that it will be 16c in the next couple of days. However from this weekend we may never see that temperature again in 2021.



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