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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Autumn 2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

Summer 2021 is over and thankfully it brought a huge improvement compared to 2020. August was the poorest month of the summer but we did get 6 sunny and warm days towards the end of the month. It turned alot cooler in the final days of the month with chilly easterly/north-easterly winds and banks of cloud. We are still in this setup as we start September with plenty of cloud and temperatures around average or a little bit below.

The current dry and cloudy spell will last another few days before we see some changes happening. There is alot of uncertainty in the models but currently the GFS has it turning briefly warmer early next week with another ridge of high pressure and winds from a warmer wind direction than we have currently.

This could get temperatures back into the high teens or low twenties in the early part of next week.

The GFS attempts to bring in much cooler and more unsettled conditions from the north west establishing an autumnal flavour to the weather.

By the middle of the month the GFS brings back the Azores high with plenty of dry weather, so the unsettled conditions may not last long and may not happen at all with so much uncertainty in the models after this weekend.

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nacho libre

The ECM evolution looks too clean, what well could happen is a halfway solution between the GFS and ECM. If that happens it will more likely be cool and dry, than cold and snowy here. Although given sod laws we could end with a Greeland High too far west and we end up in southwesterles by default!

However a full on Atlantic onslaught for the time being looks unlikely, but for how long given conditions in the stratosphere? Perhaps if we were to get a persistent blocking pattern it might have a positive effect on the strat. M.T must be thinking the window is short given his winter forecast is for a mainly mild first half of Winter

pauldry

Ya but it will be probably be a case of remember what the chart from Tuesday had

We know by now that every cold spell is moderated by the time it hits us with 6 or 7c and continous cold rain in the Northwest

Gonzo

ECM 12z very similar to yesterdays 12z. That's a fairly substantial cold pool.

PokeHerKing

Day 10 candie

Gonzo

We need several more days of model watching to see if all the models reach agreement and to determine if the upcoming cold spell is going to be a dry one or a more unsettled period. The depth of cold has yet to be determined as well as the exact track of where it will happen. Right now the GFS and ECM are going for a cool or cold spell but the GEM is still pumping up warmth from the south or south-west.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118174776#Comment_118174776

Like cold and dry, so hopefully that happens

pauldry

Update is encouraging if you like cold but if you hate heating bills no.

Will probably go down slowly from the heights of 16c midweek to 10c at the weekend and then single figures the week after. Then who knows ? Some runs have moderate cold of 7c others show colder still of 4 or 5c

Cork2021

so any updates today? Need a distraction from my head exploding on the covid forum

pauldry

Lady on weather said "becoming colder over the weekend"

Seems likely to be a cool end after a mild first 20 days so won't be a record breaker

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118171518#Comment_118171518

A nice polar low at the end of the month will do nicely if she unleashes.

Meteorite58

After the mild week to come looking more like colder conditions from Sunday. Models in good agreement this evening. Could be some hard frosts next week and could be seeing the first dusting on high ground in Northern counties . Rainfall amounts low for the time of the year on the last couple of runs.

Gonzo

ECM 12z on the verge of unleashing the cold with a lovely Greenland High just where you want it. Hopefully tomorrows runs stick with this idea.

Gonzo

The GFS 12z is having a go at a flip into winter during the final week of November. Not sure yet if this is a cold outlier but we will find out soon. High tries to get to Greenland and sends the wind into the north. On this particular run there is snow for Ulster and Leinster.

The other GFS members are still rolling out, currently at the 258 hour mark and many of them are going very cold indeed. Plenty of eye candy to look at over the next hour.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118169869#Comment_118169869

There is absolutely no sign of storms or typical Atlantic conveyer belt unsettled conditions any time soon.

Storm 10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118169653#Comment_118169653

Any chance of storms Gonzo or is it a bit early for them

Gonzo

Yesterdays 12z showed some promise but yeah we're back to the boring runs with yet more high pressure and very little in the way of real cold reaching Ireland. I don't mind the weather being dry, flat and boring throughout the Autumn but by December I would like to see some big changes. We may have to wait till after Christmas/start of January before we will see some actual winter weather. This very mild and relatively dry pattern has been with us for months now, it has to end at some stage. We have one more very mild week to come and the 4th week of November is a bit up in the air right now but could easily end up being fairly bland and dry as well.

pauldry

Apart from brief cold skirting the coast to the East and some cooler but not cold temperatures there is utterly bland weather currently forecast for the next few weeks still.

Meteorite58

Nice looking charts all right, the Atlantic ridge has been showing to firm up over the last few runs. Often squeezes in more towards Ireland pushing the cold further East will see how it pans out. These charts as they look now would possibly lead to a dusting on Northern Mountains but will take a number of runs to see if the cold takes hold.

Gonzo

Charts have definitely shifted to cold today on all models for the the final week of November. The coming week will be very mild once again but after next weekend we could be in for a colder spell. Of course alot will change in the models between now and what is over a week away.

The GFS 12z is fairly cool to cold towards the end but there are other runs even colder than this.

ECM 12z is certainly chilly.

GEM not quite there but has certainly turned cooler than what it has been showing up to yesterday.

I would love to think we could be onto a November flip and an end to the prolonged spell of relatively dry and very mild temperatures, but the charts could easily swing back to mild tomorrow. I would like to see models stick to this colder theme with confidence increasing to a cold trend throughout this week.

sryanbruen

First, get the silly out of the way as I think this is worth banking in the archive of fantasy land charts. The GFS 06z operational showed an exceptionally cold easterly to end November with snow showers into the east and a Channel Low delivering a rare November snowstorm for southern England.

Secondly, suddenly there does seem to be a signal emergence for mid-Atlantic ridging of some kind in the second half of November from the GFS ensembles and even the ECM ensembles rather than solely individual GFS operational runs which have been going nuts lately with the amplification. There is a trend for the NAO to go negative and means the weather is likely to go cooler which you'd expect given the time of year. However, that's all it is, a drop in temperature towards average or slightly below with northerly topplers the most likely solution from after next weekend based on current outlook. Looks largely dry and benign otherwise continuing the theme of this November and indeed most of this autumn too.

pauldry

Ya might as well have a record breakingly mild November so the COP activists can say "see we told ye"

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118154993#Comment_118154993

Hear, hear!

Gonzo

At the moment the GFS in extended range is poor, can't even pick up a reliable trend as it keeps showing up outlier runs for cold or very mild. if you stripe away the very mild and cool outliers there is still a slight cooling trend towards the end of the month but nothing cold enough to get excited about with temperatures more average compared to the current theme of temperatures well above average.

The only way we would get decent cold this early is from a direct long fetch northerly with as slight NE tilt to it to get proper cold down from the pole without any Atlantic influence. It's too early in the season for a standard easterly with no cold pool built up yet on the continent. If we were to get an easterly over the next week or two it would probably result in rain or sleet at best and would most certainly be of rain along eastern coasts. I don't mind waiting another 3 to 4 weeks before the fun starts to give us a better chance of tapping into decent cold from the north and east.

PokeHerKing

The trend for the gfs this week is for at least 1 run to bring a cold northerly plunge around the 20th of Nov but then its completely gone on the next few runs. Time will tell I suppose.

pauldry

Yup next run has sobered up or maybe I was drunk.....on sweets.

Mild for the whole run and record breaking mild November results.

Think I'll have to start my own average temperature blog for Sligo using Finner as a base for past couple of years as I can't seem to get the year to year information anywhere. Do you have to pay for it? Where do Oneric and sryanbreun get it?

pauldry

The old GFS pub run brings the gravy train down at the end of November. Does it think its 2010 oe something?

Nabber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150882#Comment_118150882

March snow.. ok.. maybe.

but come April I want sunshine and dry days. As much as I love snow, I’d rather not see it that late.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150882#Comment_118150882

Not really writing off anything, just I think the main chance for wintry weather will be after Christmas/ early in the new year and possibly again in March. All we need is one week of decent cold to make winter memorable.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150361#Comment_118150361

I love how quickly you are writing off whole months. Come on, keep the faith! We have a 4.5 month window ahead.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150705#Comment_118150705

It has 2 attempts off it in the 6z with of course the last one being the biggest teaser!