Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057684#Comment_118057684

I probably should have mentioned i'd be very pleased to see a complete lack of wind storms too. I do not enjoy them along with all the rain and mild Atlantic muck they bring. Overall Accuweather's winter forecast sounds too good to be true with a quiet and mild start to winter then a cold and possibly snowy second half.

The models at the moment show the Atlantic becoming more active throughout the first to second weeks of November. We will see what happens after that. I have noticed that this year in particular the Atlantic has got going a few times but rarely lasts longer than 3 weeks and then the blocking or high pressures come back.

Billcarson

Don't like storms either. Dont mind perhaps the odd one but stormy winters are often accompanied by mild weather.

Winter 2013/14 for example was horrendous. Little snow or frost,it was storm after storm. I just wanted spring to arrive that year as soon as possible which I wouldn't normally wish for until near the end of winter.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057511#Comment_118057511

Usually we get the cold in March and April when it is too late,we'll definitely feels that way,cold March and April months seem quite frequent

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118060749#Comment_118060749

Hopefully we will get the proper cold dig in as early as January this winter and not March/April like most years. This year was different as February and March were both exceptionally mild. April/May was a bit of an outlier with a very cold temperature anomaly while June to present has largely been also much milder/warmer than average. Fingers crossed that this winter delivers.

Gonzo

The midnight CFS really unleashes a very cold January and much of February too with easterlies and cold high pressure systems and plenty of blocking. Only one run of course but it's interesting to see the CFS play around with some very cold winter weather over recent weeks.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118062626#Comment_118062626

Just wondering what is the website for checking out the CFS? Thanks

Gonzo

It's on Wetter Zentrale, click the green 00z run for last nights run. The 06z is currently updating and will most likely be a milder run.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=cfs&var=1&time=2160&run=00&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref

icesnowfrost

Nice little downward trend leading into November. Winter prediction anyone??? I’ll say colder than average but that doesn’t mean widespread snow but hopefully better than last year. East coast snow shield was in force :(

icesnowfrost

Is there a FI thread going yet?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118069415#Comment_118069415

FI thread for autumn (which is the season we are in) is here: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058206872/fi-charts-t120-onwards-autumn-2021-read-mod-note-in-first-post#latest

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118064965#Comment_118064965

East coast snow shield certainly wasn't down last winter in Greystones, Docarch will be delighted to hear

They got a few inches on one occasion right on the coast

Gonzo

Parts of coastal Dublin got very lucky with that show shower which did indeed drop a few inches but elsewhere it was just bare dustings that fell. Here in Meath the radar looked good at times but once you stepped outside there wasn't a flake. We did have 24 hour snow cover at one point but it was more like a heavy frost than snow. Hopefully we will do much better this winter even if it's just for 2 or 3 days.

As for the Winter FI thread, we're still a month away from creating it and should appear here by Tuesday 30th November.

lapua20grain

Has MT done his winter outlook yet?

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118073169#Comment_118073169

No, usually late November if I recall. Way too early to make any calls on how winter might go.

Slashermcguirk

Ahh always love the winter thread on here, always the most interesting. Last winter was a strange one here in Dublin 5, we had that cold spell (I think February) which promised a lot in terms of snow that just didnt deliver. Prior to that we got some fantastic snowfall around the end of January 2021.............. from looking back at pics from that spell we had snow on the ground from 24th - 26th January, covered all the gardens, roads etc. 24th January had sustained heavy snowfall that led to about 6cm of snow.

Overall though last winter was a bit of a tease with I think only about 2-3 different days where snow fell when it promised a lot more. Hopefully this winter will deliver plenty for all.

Cluedo Monopoly

Nice to see MT talking about snow on higher ground next week. I love to see white summits in Connemara.

John.Icy

Giving a +1/2 year buffer after solar minimum - this coming winter could be the 'big' one of recent times. 2008 was the previous minimum (though 2009 was almost as deep hence the buffer) and 2010 was the peak cold year with a decent January ~10 day spell, frequent snow falling days in the first few months of the year and then obviously Nov/Dec. Late 2009 also was decently cold. The cold came as we left deep minimum, 2010 was blank for 14% of the year while 2021 will finish somewhere between 17-22% most likely.

Latest minimum bottomed out in 2019 so that would make 2021 the big 'un to see if there's any link or pattern worth following as we are coming out of the deepest portion of minimum as with 2010. I guess already we had a decent January all things considered & the tame tame easterly in February. Close to being much better. Will be interesting to see what November/December have in store.

Could be a load of tosh but just for fun.

February 1991

A week of Irish Sea white out snow showers

We had a good 10 inches in Arklow that spell

That scene as a shower approaches and you see the big flakes falling in a fog a 100 metres from you and like a great wall of white it approaches you, and 30 seconds later you are enveloped in a snow storm

https://www.rte.ie/archives/2021/0118/1190407-big-freeze-set-to-continue/

https://youtu.be/4ZcsYlLhTBo

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CVs4z1aAj6E/?utm_medium=share_sheet

nacho libre

Late this month things could start to get interesting. I wonder could we have a cold start to winter, followed by a milder second half?

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120205#Comment_118120205

Imagine if we got a cold 1st half AND a cold 2nd half of winter.. Chance of that happening is probably the same as winning the lotto!

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120205#Comment_118120205

Why do you think things could get interesting towards the end of the month or is it just a hunch?

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120205#Comment_118120205

All signs are pointing towards an above average temperature winter. So mild all round sadly. :(

leahyl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120420#Comment_118120420

They are?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120420#Comment_118120420

There are quite a few signals hinting towards that this winter won't be mild from beginning to end. I think we will have a few mild weeks to come and then maybe we might start to see things becoming more interesting. We will most likely have some very mild spells from time to time but I have a feeling we could have some very cold weather at times into the mix.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120419#Comment_118120419

The pattern in the pacific.

Also The UKMO long range forecast was suggesting something colder towards the end of the month. The GFS is hinting at it too, it could be an outlier, but sometimes the GFS picks up on something noteworthy, drops it, then come back to it. Let's see.

almostthere12

Looking at the CFS this morning and January, February in particular, and up to mid-March are bitter, down to -14 uppers at some points which I haven't seen on a chart over Ireland before.......of course all fantasy stuff but....

pauldry

The CFS(charts for snow) likes to ramp up weather extremes otherwise nobody would look at it. It couldn't stay quiet and mild forever but that sort of nonsense they come out with will be well piped down come January.

M.T. Cranium

Actually I did post an outlook in October and it seems to be doing okay so far. This is what I would now say for this winter ... generally mild most of the early portion including the Christmas-New Year period but with likely one colder interval in mid-December. Then a trend to more blocking and some chance of wintry episodes in Jan-Feb, the problem being that it might be rather like the winter of 2011-12 which delivered for eastern Britain but not so much further west. I think there's at least average chances for blocking highs to develop in the main portion of the winter season but the question will be how far west they can extend their influence. Being an optimist I will say we might do a bit better than 2011-12 and get one memorable wintry spell during the winter. Overall it may come in near average for temperatures. It's always difficult to say if there will be one or two bad storms or just the usual menu of moderate minor events, but I think the way the overall forecast is shaping up, the odds are a bit lower than average for a major windstorm event. The odds seem to favour somewhat below normal total precipitation also. There is a thread for long-range winter outlooks and a few people posted their thoughts, I will bump it back to the top of the menu and hopefully one or two more forecasts will be posted there too.

This looks like being an unusually dry November. I just posted on net-weather a correlation of dry Novembers and the temperature trends (it is in the November contest thread). Since almost all dry Novembers were before 1920 in the UK records (1956 was the most recent of the top ten and 1945 was the driest, but all eight of the others were 1909 or earlier and mostly in the late 18th or early to mid 19th centuries) it might be difficult to find much data for Ireland for many of those. One or two of the winters that followed the dry Novembers were on the mild side but many had at least one cold month although none led to an outstanding winter. The main point is that if November seems rather inactive and with some tendency to blocking highs (often absent early in the winter half-year) then it has to be an encouraging sign for later strong blocking episodes.

So the bottom line is moderate optimism at this point. There will no doubt be some very mild spells too, I don't think there's much chance of a 1962-63 type of outcome. One of the better autumn analogues so far was 1978 so that's a good sign too. There was a lot of rather mild weather in Oct-Nov 1978 that lasted well into Dec before a sharp turn to cold near the end of that month. The rest of the winter of 1978-79 had a number of very cold spells mingled with near-average weeks.

M.T. Cranium

Just posted in the LRF thread that I have become more optimistic about the winter prospects after noting that weather patterns over western North America are trending towards similar outcomes to Nov 1981. Seeing some signs of good changes on the most recent GFS run also. Will now be saying, rather than slow approach to moderately good mid-winter outcome, possibly a faster evolution and a better chance of wintry outcomes more frequently. Could be best winter since the 2010 and 2011 winters. If you wanted a repeat of any winter of recent decades I suppose many would choose 1981-82 for the January snowfall and also some deep cold in December. Details may prove different but now thinking there may be some good winter synoptics ahead. (nothing much for next ten days or so)