Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

Last winter was close to what I would like our average winter to be, maybe still slightly below par though because it was just a bit too Atlantic driven for my liking and not the exciting kind (there was hardly any storms) with the mild/wet period in mid-Dec and a very wet January with slow moving fronts up against blocking to the north but not enough cold air fed from the east. The February easterly was also a big disaster. The novelty of snow on New Year's Eve was cool even if it was barely a dusting, the severe frost on 9 January was interesting especially with no snow even though it was the coldest morning since December 2010 for most and the localised snowfall I had on 24 January that was mainly a northeast coastal Dublin affair. 6 December was a great day too with persistent freezing fog nearly all day.

Not counting our surface conditions, it was such an unusual season though with vast amounts of blocking in the Arctic Circle that wouldn't recede until the intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex through mid-February. The last time there was that amount of high latitude blocking for such a prolonged period of time was probably either winter 2009-10 or March 2013.

As for 2021-22, first thing I look out for is the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures come late November and see how they are doing. Right now, the North Atlantic is just in a very warm state in general which doesn't give much indication besides the onset of an active hurricane season perhaps in a month's time.

I'd imagine any leaves were to do with heat stress as opposed to cool weather. In the East at least we've had slightly above to very above normal temperatures since the end of May.

Leaves on the ground in Ireland in July aren't a sign of winter or autumn coming.

As someone who likes cold spells in winter last winter was better then the last 2 and better then many since 2010/11 but flattered to decieve especially the cold spell of February. The synoptics around Xmas looked good on paper but the air wasn't cold enough.

Perhaps last winter was some kind of attempt at a low solar minimum like winter like what we had a decade before. We are at the point in the current solar cycle of coming out of the minimum (as we were last winter) which can give cold winters so I'm hopeful this winter might be a step up from last winter.

Christ no, that winter 13/14 was just rotten storm after storm,hardly any frost etc

I was lucky enough to be in that part of North Dublin that got the proper lying snow in late January (was surreal seeing the beaches covered in snow), also spent a beautiful snowy day in Wicklow at the start of that month, proper fairytale stuff.

Still, it was a winter full of teases that didnt really deliver, hoping for something a bit more exciting this winter.

Another thing about that winter was despite the lack of cold,frost and snow etc it wasn't a particularly mild winter either. Max temps often in the 7c - 9c range,therefore the reason for example why the Highlands of Scotland got plenty of snow that winter.

Bit depressing to be thinking of winter already but anyways. I’ll just state for the record that before the autumn and the multitude of posters seeing more berries in trees than ever before, the hawthorn tree in my garden was complete white with blossoms this summer, as in you couldn’t see anything but white. So, I’ll expect a bumper crop of haw berries which has no way to predict with how harsh the winter will be.

Dunno what the winter will be like just yet, I’ll wait till end of August and I’ll have a better idea.

Ah Now........... Winter?..........

Although, I must check our heating oil.

This thread just gets earlier every year…

Wet and mild.

Easterly QBO - increases the chances of a weak/meridional jet stream and sudden stratospheric warming events. The last time the QBO was easterly was way back in 2017-18. There was a second failure of the easterly QBO in 2020 only 4 years after the only other failure in the record in 2016.

Weak La Niña - La Niña favours -NAO more in the earlier part of the winter so the earlier part is likely to be colder than the second half.

Negative to neutral IOD - a strongly positive IOD was believed to have helped the rapid intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex in 2019-20 with little tropical wave activity to disturb it. So a negative to neutral IOD this time around should mean few impacts from it.

Warm North Atlantic - less conducive to explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and if a tripole forms can be more conducive to -NAO.

Weak jet stream during 2021 so far - the jet stream has been very meridional and weak during a lot of 2021 so far. This has been theorised to being down to low solar forcing.

Siberia has overall been colder this year so far as compared to 2020 when it was approaching record warmth so polar continental airmasses that advected eastward from here were unusually mild. It has been a similar story in the Arctic where it has been a cloudy summer so melting hasn't been as great as many recent years.

This well above average September could well be making the bed for the coming winter. We will have to lie in it. Not what I want. But the one positive is it would help with the heating bills.

Atm I reckon a mild and dry winter is most likely.

Well if it won't be mild and dry , mild and wet. One or the other. Either way mild imo.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if this winter will be one of the mildest on record.