Seeing as last years thread started on August first last year maybe it's time..
Out on my run yesterday I couldnt help notice that there was a lot of leaves on the road for the first time in months and the air was decidedly autumnal in temperature. It made me start wondering what winter is going to be like.
Last year whilst not the stuff of legend did give a few decent wintery blasts (well, decent for a location about a mile from the coast in south Dublin).
I'm getting my long term forecast in now, mild, wet and blowy with frequent named storms and no snow recorded here on the ground and maybe 1-3 days with it falling December to Febuary 2022.
Love to see this thread opening! There's no Autumn thread though is there?! 😯
Last winter was close to what I would like our average winter to be, maybe still slightly below par though because it was just a bit too Atlantic driven for my liking and not the exciting kind (there was hardly any storms) with the mild/wet period in mid-Dec and a very wet January with slow moving fronts up against blocking to the north but not enough cold air fed from the east. The February easterly was also a big disaster. The novelty of snow on New Year's Eve was cool even if it was barely a dusting, the severe frost on 9 January was interesting especially with no snow even though it was the coldest morning since December 2010 for most and the localised snowfall I had on 24 January that was mainly a northeast coastal Dublin affair. 6 December was a great day too with persistent freezing fog nearly all day.
Not counting our surface conditions, it was such an unusual season though with vast amounts of blocking in the Arctic Circle that wouldn't recede until the intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex through mid-February. The last time there was that amount of high latitude blocking for such a prolonged period of time was probably either winter 2009-10 or March 2013.
As for 2021-22, first thing I look out for is the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures come late November and see how they are doing. Right now, the North Atlantic is just in a very warm state in general which doesn't give much indication besides the onset of an active hurricane season perhaps in a month's time.
Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphotography.com/
Winter 2020/2021 was such a tease, we came fairly close to have a few noteworthy snow events but just couldn't pull it off and we ended up with the usual trace amounts of snow/dustings however when it was cold it felt like proper winter. The coldest day of last winter was not from a cold plunge, northerly or easterly but was from inversion on Sunday December 6th with dense freezing fog and a daytime high of -1C locally at Dunsany.
What will this winter bring? I've honestly no idea at this stage far too early to tell but I'm going to go with my gut feeling and that is a mostly mild winter that may contain 1 or 2 very cold weeks and 1 notable snow event. My thoughts on this will probably change alot in the coming months as we get a clearer signal of what this winter could bring.
I'd imagine any leaves were to do with heat stress as opposed to cool weather. In the East at least we've had slightly above to very above normal temperatures since the end of May.
Leaves on the ground in Ireland in July aren't a sign of winter or autumn coming.
Is it too early to start a Spring 2022 thread while we're at it? I reckon this winter will be cooler than this summer.
As someone who likes cold spells in winter last winter was better then the last 2 and better then many since 2010/11 but flattered to decieve especially the cold spell of February. The synoptics around Xmas looked good on paper but the air wasn't cold enough.
Perhaps last winter was some kind of attempt at a low solar minimum like winter like what we had a decade before. We are at the point in the current solar cycle of coming out of the minimum (as we were last winter) which can give cold winters so I'm hopeful this winter might be a step up from last winter.
Hoping for a repeat of the winter 2013 - 2014, only better, which would be more akin to winter 89-90.
Christ no, that winter 13/14 was just rotten storm after storm,hardly any frost etc
Hopefully we get at least 6 weeks of sustained cold with the attendant frost and snow events. December and January most promising months for this.
Ideally we have a re run of the winter of 1963 - would be interesting to say the least !
I was lucky enough to be in that part of North Dublin that got the proper lying snow in late January (was surreal seeing the beaches covered in snow), also spent a beautiful snowy day in Wicklow at the start of that month, proper fairytale stuff.
Still, it was a winter full of teases that didnt really deliver, hoping for something a bit more exciting this winter.
On the plus side, countless days with big thunder! We have had very tame winters since then in fairness.
Another thing about that winter was despite the lack of cold,frost and snow etc it wasn't a particularly mild winter either. Max temps often in the 7c - 9c range,therefore the reason for example why the Highlands of Scotland got plenty of snow that winter.
Last winter was a right 'ol tease, however the snow and low temperatures around January 6th to 10th saved what was an otherwise close but no cigar akin to 2012/13 (if my memory serves me correctly).
Barring a massive swing to El Nino this winter, we should see alot of western/northwestern blocking I think and that should bode well for arctic and Scandinavian incursions. The jet has been in two states really for a decent time now:
Both good if you like Ireland to experience more continental style weather patterns.
Bit depressing to be thinking of winter already but anyways. I’ll just state for the record that before the autumn and the multitude of posters seeing more berries in trees than ever before, the hawthorn tree in my garden was complete white with blossoms this summer, as in you couldn’t see anything but white. So, I’ll expect a bumper crop of haw berries which has no way to predict with how harsh the winter will be.
Dunno what the winter will be like just yet, I’ll wait till end of August and I’ll have a better idea.
Ah Now........... Winter?..........
Although, I must check our heating oil.
I leave for a few months and the whole website changes!
I am more confident of a cold Winter this year but not my much. Last Winter was colder than the previous two. I feel it was a set up Winter for this year, similar to end of 2009 to what we got in 2010. We got a bit of a heatwave in 2010 and in 2018. The small out we just had has me more positive for this Winter.
This thread just gets earlier every year…
I'm hoping for an interesting winter whether it be storms or snow, hopefully a good mixture of both. There's is nothing more boring in winter than mild,dry, and cloudy weather that lasts over a week at a time(IMO).
I think we are overdue a very wet and stormy spell in Winter. My worthless prediction for late Autumn/Early Winter is severe flooding in the Shannon basin in November. A couple of hefty storms that month. Cold more settled with snow at times in the first the half of December. Later half of December intense storms with one exceptional severe storm around Christmas before settling down to something more seasonal from the North to see out last 4 days of the year with frosts and snow for some.
I missed this thread opening this year. All aboard the rollercoaster that is winter hope.
Ah that time of years again when cold fans emerge from the shadows...
We got one decent snowfall last year and some nice frosty mornings, but given what could have been last winter was a real tease. I would not say no to a major storm this winter, it has been a while since we had one. A wind storm that was accompanied by a raging blizzard, which lasted 18 - 24 hours would be just the ticket:)
I miss the crisp frosty mornings. Definitely don’t see too many of them anymore.
Any early indicators for this Winter?
Wet and mild.
Good shout to be fair.
Easterly QBO - increases the chances of a weak/meridional jet stream and sudden stratospheric warming events. The last time the QBO was easterly was way back in 2017-18. There was a second failure of the easterly QBO in 2020 only 4 years after the only other failure in the record in 2016.
Weak La Niña - La Niña favours -NAO more in the earlier part of the winter so the earlier part is likely to be colder than the second half.
Negative to neutral IOD - a strongly positive IOD was believed to have helped the rapid intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex in 2019-20 with little tropical wave activity to disturb it. So a negative to neutral IOD this time around should mean few impacts from it.
Warm North Atlantic - less conducive to explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and if a tripole forms can be more conducive to -NAO.
Weak jet stream during 2021 so far - the jet stream has been very meridional and weak during a lot of 2021 so far. This has been theorised to being down to low solar forcing.
Siberia has overall been colder this year so far as compared to 2020 when it was approaching record warmth so polar continental airmasses that advected eastward from here were unusually mild. It has been a similar story in the Arctic where it has been a cloudy summer so melting hasn't been as great as many recent years.
Good, with record breaking energy prices across Europe, it will suit the majority in keeping the hit to their bank balance as low as possible.