Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

the kelt

frink wrote: »

Got my 1st dose vaccine this morning and grateful for it. Following the announcement yesterday, I had to ask myself what is the point

Got my second yesterday and said to the nurse while getting it "is there much point in bothering?"

She laughed and said "if only i had a euro for everyone thats said that to me today id be a wealthy woman going home!"

keano_afc

Quags wrote: »

My god, they really are trying to destroy the country

He doesnt see an issue with the death of the pub trade. And he's in charge of the country, so we're all screwed.

eastie17

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Cases. Cases cases cases. Not a fecking mention of the numbers that matter - hospitalisations and deaths. I thought we moved on from the fixation on cases once the most vulnerable were vaccinated?

Someone should tell the clown to shut up about cases and give a proper explanation for his nonsensical stance on antigen testing.

We did, until it didnt suit anymore it seems to me

gozunda

Responder XY wrote: »

I started to try and re-model the 700k figure in 3 months - I heard someone on the radio (might have been Sam McConkey, but not 100% sure) say that the basis was a doubling every 10 days of Delta cases as that was observed once in some part of the UK. So I started there. Then I finished, because that's all they seem to have done.

Once they publish the list of assumptions I'm expecting it will be very short. It's completely outlandish to say cases will double every 10 days for 3 months and nothing will change! Clearly that's not going to happen! Takes no account of vaccinated people, takes no account of seasonality, takes no account that during those 3 months more people will get vaccinated, takes no account of the fact that even if we started to see doubling every 10 days, behaviour would very quickly adopt in the population.
I'm so disgusted that analysis like that even got presented. If that happened in the private sector you'd never get to present analysis again.

Afaik vaccination and transmissibility data were used.

I don't know of you've seen the brief on the modelling but it details but five different scenarios were modeled "with two fundamental types of assumption, on indoor social mixing and transmission advantage" Vaccination data was also included

The vaccination programme is included in the model according to the latest available estimates of vaccine supply and administration, and published estimates of vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection and severe disease.

Table 1 summarises the mean case counts, admissions, and deaths for each scenario.
It is noteworthy across all scenarios that case counts rise very slowly during July 2021. However, the seeds of future growth are sown at this time, and case counts increase exponentially through August
2021 until a combination of vaccine-induced and infection-induced immunity slows growth through September and October 2021.
The infections occur largely in the young, unvaccinated population, but as the force of infection grows, a significant number of infections also occur in older, vaccinated people. The optimistic scenario is associated with 81,000 (23,000 – 231,000) cases between 1 July 2021 and 30 September, 1,530 (1,400-1,660) admissions to hospital, 195 (150-250) admissions to ICU, and 250 (215-290)
deaths. While 75% of the cases are in people under 40 years of age, 99.9% of the deaths are in
people over 40 years of age.

The first central and subsequent scenarios see higher case counts and significantly more people requiring hospital and critical care.
There is an additional important uncertainty in relation to these model scenarios. The latter part of the infection curve, beyond September 2021, is sustained by infection in children and adolescents, who are not currently eligible for vaccination. If children are less susceptible, and/or less likely to transmit infection, or a decision is made to vaccinate those under 16 years of age, the wave of infection will peak earlier and decline more rapidly

More here:

https://www.rte.ie/documents/news/2021/06/138789-3fe6b992-45e8-4a1c-b4c2-5e4a6131ad53.pdf

I believe MM said the data would be made available for those who wished to review it fully. Cant find the link I saw earlier about this

Hellrazer

Everyone just needs to email / ring / text their local TDs - then if there is a protest join it - this will be the only way we get our freedom back.
Every person in employment in hospitality should be in the city centre this Saturday - show this shower of eejits that they work for us not the other way around.

Vicxas

I've never once emailed a TD before, but this is disgusting.

stephenjmcd

CMO told opposition in a briefing that the models didn't account for the NIAC advice on using AZ & JJ in u40s

ddarcy

Larbre34 wrote: »

On that Scotland issue. 2,000 or so travelled to London for the game V England, either to attend the match, or to watch it elsewhere in the City with others.

1,200 of them are now infected.

Say what you like, this bugger is infectious like wildfire. I don't entertain anyone who uses deaths as a metric of success, but it would be churlish to ignore the risk to our hospitals of an explosion of cases once again.

Well you got quite a few things wrong here. 2000 fans got Covid from tens of thousands who went down. 1/3 were in Scotland.

[url] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-57667163[/url]

Nearly 2,000 Covid cases in Scotland have been linked to people watching Euro 2020 football matches.

…

Scotland was only allocated 2,600 tickets for the match at Wembley because of Covid restrictions.
But tens of thousands of fans are believed to have travelled to London despite warnings not to do so unless they had a ticket.

2/3 came from London.

So the infection rate is at worst 13% (assuming 10k went down), but if say 100k went down, then it’s only 1.3%. If 100k went down then literally nothing to worry about and that’s quite probable.

Ballynally

TomSweeney wrote: »

So basically this will never end ....

On the Newstalk site they revealed that fully vaccinated people will only be considered protected for 4 months and 10 days. Brought down recently from 9 months!
Everything we know about vaccines in the past points to a really long protection time, running into years, sometimes decades.
They are just plucking the 130 days out of the air as nobody can calculate the timeframe of less efficasy. 4 months and 10 days halved fr 9. Just like that.
Just to be sure that you WILL take a booster shot if you plan to go somewhere.THAT's the vaccine bonus time frame.
It means that, being fully vaccinated on june 17, by the time xmas holidays are there, Moderna can expect a nice bonus w a booster shot.
They are just forcing this down yr throat w no data to back it up.It is becoming the modus operandi in a lot of cases.
For your own good, im sure.

dubdaymo

A Short Crucial Update on the Delta Variant and Much More

Don't know if this link was posted earlier in thread but no harm to repeat every few pages as everyone should watch it and share.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TR0Nrds16Y

gozunda

Larbre34 wrote: »

On that Scotland issue. 2,000 or so travelled to London for the game V England, either to attend the match, or to watch it elsewhere in the City with others.

1,200 of them are now infected.

Say what you like, this bugger is infectious like wildfire. I don't entertain anyone who uses deaths as a metric of success, but it would be churlish to ignore the risk to our hospitals of an explosion of cases once again.

Saw that report earlier on TV. Apparently the numbers infected are now over 2000 but there was more than that involved afaik

Spike on June 21

A sharp increase in Covid cases linked to Euro 2020 can be seen in the days after the June 18 clash in London.

Almost 250 cases were logged on June 20 and, the day after, this more than doubled to 563.

Hundreds more cases were logged in the three days following.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/lifestyle/health-and-wellbeing/3275380/almost-2000-covid-cases-linked-with-scottish-football-fans-at-euros/

Overall Contract tracing in Scotland found 2,000 Covid cases linked with Scottish football fans at Euros while daily new cases in Scotland reportedly hit record high for second time in three days.

Meanwhile down south Boris is again playing Covid flipflop with plans to scrap the need for Covid passports at large public gatherings after "Freedom Day" on July 19.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Shelga

RTÉ radio 1 currently scaremongering as usual- frequent use of this new phrase “rip through the population”- if the average age of the people getting it is 25, because everyone vulnerable is vaccinated, seriously what is the big issue? The language really needs to be moderated.

At this stage just give me the fecking antibodies. I’ll start licking lampposts if I’m waiting too much longer on a vaccine.

stephenjmcd

Just to highlight this. Its within the Independent article but its the standout for me tbh

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1410262975018057728?s=19

M_Murphy57

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just to highlight this. Its within the Independent article but its the standout for me tbh

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1410262975018057728?s=19

Is this their way of explaining why we aren't already all dead or trying to save face from their **** models?

lawred2

Deeper Blue wrote: »

And they'll have 60k in a week's time.

They're actually living with covid like most sensible countries.

But NPHET know better.

Thou must not consume alcohol

finalfurlong

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just to highlight this. Its within the Independent article but its the standout for me tbh

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1410262975018057728?s=19

Its all arbitary at this stage.Data input flawed therefore-not to talk with martins and holohans new obsession with Scotland without mentioning the notable effect of euro fans travelling and crowds supporters watching games in pubs,houses etc.
We really are being played for fools

gozunda

Ballynally wrote: »

On the Newstalk site they revealed that fully vaccinated people will only be considered protected for 4 months and 10 days. Brought down recently from 9 months! Everything we know about vaccines in the past points to a really long protection time, running into years, sometimes decades.
They are just plucking the 130 days out of the air as nobody can calculate the timeframe of less efficasy. 4 months and 10 days halved fr 9. Just like that.Just to be sure that you WILL take a booster shot if you plan to go somewhere.THAT's the vaccine bonus time frame.
It means that, being fully vaccinated on june 17, by the time xmas holidays are there, Moderna can expect a nice bonus w a booster shot.
They are just forcing this down yr throat w no data to back it up.It is becoming the modus operandi in a lot of cases.
For your own good, im sure.

Well no. Vaccines for Influenza change on a yearly basis.

Otherwise looks like not all the data on vaccines and covid is in yet. The crucial factor determining how long a vaccine remains usable relates to potential future changes in the virus itself.

Evidence Shows Pfizer and Moderna May Provide Lifetime Immunity to COVID-19
But the Delta variant may still pose some concern.

Both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna's COVID-19 vaccines trigger a consistent immune reaction in the human body that could protect recipients for years, according to a Monday report from the journal Nature.

While the effectiveness of drugs developed at world-record speeds at such an early stage is naturally tenuous, we may be nearing the stage where many vaccine recipients may breathe a sigh of world-historical relief.

However, with troubling developments amid Israel's Delta variant outbreak, there may still be cause for concern.

COVID-19 coronavirus immunity might last for years

The new findings lend credence to mounting evidence that most people who receive the two mRNA vaccines may need no further boosters, as long as the virus and its subsequent variants don't surpass an evolutionary threshold of potential effectiveness. And to be clear: this could happen. Those who contracted and survived the COVID-19 coronavirus before receiving a vaccine might be fine without a booster, even should the virus undergo a substantial evolutionary leap. 

https://interestingengineering.com/pfizer-moderna-provide-lifetime-covid-19-immunity

namloc1980

Tony still says no to antigen tests:

.

namloc1980

stephenjmcd wrote: »

CMO told opposition in a briefing that the models didn't account for the NIAC advice on using AZ & JJ in u40s

"Garbage in, garbage out"

MOR316

I said this in another thread a few times...I was told by someone close to it all, back near February/March time, that Holohan and NPHET didn't want pubs open until Spring of next year.

Now, I assumed they were mistaking when they opened outdoor hospitality and that they were told wrong. With what happened yesterday and now Holohan saying today that witout Vaccine passports, they'd have recommended them to be shut for months and months, my mind is beginning to wonder...

HildaOgdenx

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As the Indo tells it, this all seems to be down to Micheal Martin being unable to make a decision himself, and Holohan - himself an arrogant dominating individual as we've seen in the pressers - taking advantage of this weak ineffectual man to push his agenda...



https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/scramble-to-save-summer-ministers-incensed-at-nphet-race-on-to-develop-vaccine-id-amid-shock-advice-40596602.html

.... It almost reads like an abusive relationship between them to be honest. One of them has to get out.

That is maddening to read. Micheal Martin needs to realise that he (god help us) is in charge, and step up. Unfortunately, not a hope of that happening.

What was the point of anyone being vaccinated if this is the outcome. As for the idea of a 'pass' I'm too annoyed to even type what I think of that!

RobitTV

Completely outrageous that Holohan is STILL against antigen testing and the government puppets are following this nonsense advice.

Antigen testing must be included in any 'covid pass' - there is no way they could discriminate against people who have not been vaccinated in this way.

NIMAN

Its actually funny listening to all the possible scenarios on The Last Word.

Government did not think this out at all, and nor did NPHET.

Its laughable, if it wasn't so serious.

is_that_so

dubdaymo wrote: »

A Short Crucial Update on the Delta Variant and Much More

Don't know if this link was posted earlier in thread but no harm to repeat every few pages as everyone should watch it and share.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TR0Nrds16Y

Just so posters know it's Ivor Cummings and it's 10 minutes long.

namloc1980

Looks like the music "test event" at Kilmainham will be about as much fun as living on a battery farm. Literally caging people into pens. I expect posters will still defend this nonsense no doubt.

.

Whatsisname

namloc1980 wrote: »

Looks like the music "test event" at Kilmainham will be about as much fun as living on a battery farm. Literally caging people into pens. I expect posters will still defend this nonsense no doubt.

.

History will look back at all of us like a bunch of hysterical lunatics.

gozunda

Shelga wrote: »

RTÉ radio 1 currently scaremongering as usual- frequent use of this new phrase “rip through the population”- if the average age of the people getting it is 25, because everyone vulnerable is vaccinated, seriously what is the big issue? The language really needs to be moderated.

At this stage just give me the fecking antibodies. I’ll start licking lampposts if I’m waiting too much longer on a vaccine.

Can completely understand the frustration but no not all the vulnerable have been vaccinated. Add to this where Delta is known to be an issue for those with only one dose. Hence the push to get as many people fully vaccinated as possible

Vulnerable groups are not yet fully vaccinated and remain at significant risk to the severe impact of COVID-19 (75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received second dose; cohort 7 not yet complete)

daydorunrun

I guess this is the crux of NPHET’s concern-

https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-50-of-delta-variant-cases-vaccinated-severe-2021-6

MOR316

gozunda wrote: »

Can completely understand the frustration but no not all the vulnerable have been vaccinated. Add to this where Delta is known to be an issue for those with only one dose. Hence the push to get as many people fully vaccinated as possible

I know someone.
Had a bleed on the brain many years ago. Won't take the AZ vaccine because of the stories of blood clots being a rare side effect. Says they'll wait for Pfizer. Don't blame them.

The way this is being touted, it's against basic human rights to discriminate against them and oust them from society for that.

funnydoggy

daydorunrun wrote: »

I guess this is the crux of NPHET’s concern-

https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-50-of-delta-variant-cases-vaccinated-severe-2021-6

Here's a recent tweet about it:


https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1410208671871782916


Looking great in Israel!