Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

ninebeanrows

why have Nphet been so quiet today, they often out

KanyeSouthEast

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Irrelevant to this sorry now

Ok is this relevant to you?

Northern Ireland pubs and restaurants have been open since late May? Has there been an increase in deaths and serious illness in the last month there? Let’s just keep this simple now.

Ballynally

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Well isn’t that preferable to politicians “winging it” and just guessing what needs to be done?

NPHET are public health experts

The politicians are not.

How many public health experts did get things spectacularly wrong during the pandemic? A model is based on an assumption of direction the data seems to point to. Although it is a useful tool to have as a way to simplify a system into an X and Y line, and makes a watcheable power point presentation, given the interaction of the many variables and the continueing changing circumstances this system is highly speculative and cannot give an accurate description of future prospects.
It is a bit like predicting the weather. High probability for 3 days, after that an extending error margin. 5-7 days an educated guess. Longer and you are in the tall grass. I would take any good weather expert over a health expert in terms of the certainty of predictions in which the former will have a lot of 'it depends'.
Weather people have very sofisticated computer models.
The latter are more like economists with their inventive models, claiming knowledge where there isnt enough data, assuming A leads to B. Guesswork is a better description.
The best model is the one in hindsight.
Put 10 models in a bucket. Take one out and that's the winner.
The higher a person is up in the pecking order, the more he is a manager/policitian and likely to carry the least insight into statistics.
So, whenever you hear a health expert say:" if nothing changes, it looks like we are going to have X amount of.." you can stop listening.
He is playing a game to push a simplistic model down your throat or ignorant of other factors. It is a bit like the Groucho Marx joke: '..i have Principles, you know and if you dont like them...i have others!

Beechwoodspark

KanyeSouthEast wrote: »

Ok is this relevant to you?

Northern Ireland pubs and restaurants have been open since late May? Has there been an increase in deaths and serious illness in the last month there? Let’s just keep this simple now.

I’m NOT a public health expert

Neither are the cabinet

The experts however have provided briefing and advice to our elected officials

Speaking as someone with vulnerable family and friends I’m happy enough with that.

Much preferable than politicians making stupid populist decisions.

sydthebeat

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Irrelevant to this sorry now

Can't comment on the exact issue... Due to mod instruction

But historical management scandals over wide ranging health issues, are very relevant to current management

_Kaiser_

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Question for you

What does NPHET stand for

That will give you an idea of their expertise...

And considering that there's already been an admission that their "optimistic" numbers were wrong, it doesn't say very much for their "expertise" does it?

Thelonious Monk

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I’m NOT a public health expert

Neither are the cabinet

The experts however have provided briefing and advice to our elected officials

Speaking as someone with vulnerable family and friends I’m happy enough with that.

Much preferable than politicians making stupid populist decisions.

Are your vulnerable family and friends not vaccinated at this stage?!?!

Coillte_Bhoy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

You are naive if you don’t think the cabinet scrutinised the nphet report

They didnt actually have time to 'scrutinise' it.

Beechwoodspark

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Are your vulnerable family and friends not vaccinated at this stage?!?!

Some are. Some aren’t.

Some are absolutely terrified of the delta variant and are happy that govt has listened to the experts on this occasion.

sydthebeat

It's very strange that Irish "experts" seem to read world wide clinical data completely different than all other countries "experts"...

What's special about the Irish ones.... Hummm...

Tenzor07

Ballynally wrote: »

How many public health experts did get things spectacularly wrong during the pandemic? A model is based on an assumption of direction the data seems to point to.

Did the Government learn nothing from the UK, and "Professor Lockdown's" dodgy maths that wrongly predicted mass deaths...


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/coding-led-lockdown-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/

Thelonious Monk

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some are. Some aren’t.

Some are absolutely terrified of the delta variant and are happy that govt has listened to the experts on this occasion.

You sound like a wind up tbh

PaulJoseph22

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some are. Some aren’t.

Some are absolutely terrified of the delta variant and are happy that govt has listened to the experts on this occasion.

What experts, we don’t have experts, we do have an utterly shambolic health service though.

Stheno

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some are. Some aren’t.

Some are absolutely terrified of the delta variant and are happy that govt has listened to the experts on this occasion.

Its not the right decision imo

Its based on flawed data

namloc1980

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Some are. Some aren’t.

Some are absolutely terrified of the delta variant and are happy that govt has listened to the experts on this occasion.

Deference to authority without any consideration. You're not alone. A lot of Irish people outsource their thinking to so called "experts".

lawrencesummers

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Are your vulnerable family and friends not vaccinated at this stage?!?!

If they are not, it’s because the experts don’t see the need for them to be vaccinated.

Ironic eh.

RavenBea17b

normanoffside wrote: »

Move aside Delta, there's a new variant in town.
This should keep everything closed until Christmas.

https://twitter.com/honorverity/status/1409838787937640452

Link to variants around the world. - these figures are updated regularly and are the ones reported to have been sequenced and identified after positive test.

https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/

Beechwoodspark

namloc1980 wrote: »

Deference to authority without any consideration. You're not alone. A lot of Irish people outsource their thinking to so called "experts".

Not at all

I don’t defer to them

I am happy our elected officials in the form of the cabinet have NPHET to brief and advise them

Remember. Some of the cabinet have no 3rd level qualifications (Simon Harris is one example) and almost all have no medical qualifications.

So yeah, the cabinet can disregard the advice. They can. But they are obviously won over by the reports.

suicide_circus

Is there now any reason to believe the travel will be back on the 19th July?

Fandymo

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I’m NOT a public health expert

Neither are the cabinet

The experts however have provided briefing and advice to our elected officials

Speaking as someone with vulnerable family and friends I’m happy enough with that.

Much preferable than politicians making stupid populist decisions.

How many “expert” epidemiologists on NPHET? How many “expert” virologists on NPHET?

Stheno

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Not at all

I don’t defer to them

I am happy our elected officials in the form of the cabinet have NPHET to brief and advise them

Remember, the cabinet can disregard the advice. They can. But they are obviously won over by the reports.

So why are they now looking for the ECDC or who to review the models?

If your family are that vulnerable, why can they not stay at home?

Ballynally

thebaz wrote: »

Experts predicting 2,000 could die by August, its scaremonging not rational advice . and the Irish public lap it up, whilst the rest of Europe and America open up, and live with the virus whilst the most vulbnerable are vaccinated.

2000 could die according to a model. Well, how certain are you that the model is correct? We are not, its just one model amongst many. Ok, which one IS more accurate then? We dont know, somewhere in the middle. More to the left or the right? Hard to tell but could be really bad. How certain are you that that will happen? Hard to tell but you dont want it to be that bad. When do we know it IS going to be bad? Much later. So it could be much more positive? Yes, but we cant take that chance. Could it actually turn out to be more positive than the models suggest? Hard to tell, we are more interested in a worse case scenario.
Which is uncertain? Indeed.

lawrencesummers

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I'm a healthy 40 year old and I'm vaccinated but not his vulnerable loved ones, poor attempt at trolling.

No trolling, just pointing out that he’s happy to accept the decisions of the experts while also being related to people who are high risk but unvaccinated upon the say so of the same experts while thousands of people who are not high risk get jabs.

At this stage, I'm convinced that indoor hospitality will be closed until early 2022 -- though they don't have the nerve to say so.

Why?

Because it takes several weeks post-vaccination for the effects to fully come through. This brings us into August.

Then, as per Holohan's letter today, concern has already been raised about schools/colleges returning in September. Therefore, "caution" will be warranted.

After that, we are diving into the optimum season for viral replication. Whether it's the Delta or some future variant, NPHET will argue that cases will rise too high in hot, indoor winter settings.

This will last throughout winter, leading us into early 2022 when all restrictions - perhaps except a mask mandate - will be lifted.

I hope that I turn out to be completely and utterly wrong.

lawrencesummers

suicide_circus wrote: »

Is there now any reason to believe the travel will be back on the 19th July?

Yes, because the gobs in this country are not deciding it.

suicide_circus

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Yes, because the gobs in this country are not deciding it.

Arent they?

acequion

Ballynally wrote: »

How many public health experts did get things spectacularly wrong during the pandemic? A model is based on an assumption of direction the data seems to point to. Although it is a useful tool to have as a way to simplify a system into an X and Y line, and makes a watcheable power point presentation, given the interaction of the many variables and the continueing changing circumstances this system is highly speculative and cannot give an accurate description of future prospects.
It is a bit like predicting the weather. High probability for 3 days, after that an extending error margin. 5-7 days an educated guess. Longer and you are in the tall grass. I would take any good weather expert over a health expert in terms of the certainty of predictions in which the former will have a lot of 'it depends'.
Weather people have very sofisticated computer models.
The latter are more like economists with their inventive models, claiming knowledge where there isnt enough data, assuming A leads to B. Guesswork is a better description.
The best model is the one in hindsight.
Put 10 models in a bucket. Take one out and that's the winner.
The higher a person is up in the pecking order, the more he is a manager/policitian and likely to carry the least insight into statistics.
So, whenever you hear a health expert say:" if nothing changes, it looks like we are going to have X amount of.." you can stop listening.
He is playing a game to push a simplistic model down your throat or ignorant of other factors. It is a bit like the Groucho Marx joke: '..i have Principles, you know and if you dont like them...i have others!

A very interesting insight. And very plausible too. Nice sophisticated PP presentation, bamboozle with stats and jargon and shur what about it if it's mainly guesswork!! No one is checking the figures too closely.

And because that's from NPHET and because they say so, that's all it takes to destroy livelihoods and a country's economy.Wow :eek:

giveitholly

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At this stage, I'm convinced that indoor hospitality will be closed until early 2022 -- though they don't have the nerve to say so.

Why?

Because it takes several weeks post-vaccination for the effects to fully come through. This brings us into August.

Then, as per Holohan's letter today, concern has already been raised about schools/colleges returning in September. Therefore, "caution" will be warranted.

After that, we are diving into the optimum season for viral replication. Whether it's the Delta or some future variant, NPHET will argue that cases will rise too high in hot, indoor winter settings.

This will last throughout winter, leading us into early 2022 when all restrictions - perhaps except a mask mandate - will be lifted.

I hope that I turn out to be completely and utterly wrong.

Early 2022? Not a hope,reckon earliest it will be is May 2022 and that is being generous

PaulJoseph22

PaulJoseph22 wrote: »

Not irrelevant, if this is the level of ‘expertise’ that the clowns are following.

Also google his advice on pandernix despite warnings. So not the first time tony flew in the face of better medical wisdom. He should be made step down citing early comeback after his wifes passing. Then deconstruct the quango...

Coillte_Bhoy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Not at all

I don’t defer to them

I am happy our elected officials in the form of the cabinet have NPHET to brief and advise them

Remember. Some of the cabinet have no 3rd level qualifications and almost all have no medical qualifications.

So yeah, the cabinet can disregard the advice. They can. But they are obviously won over by the reports.

Most of the cabinet had little time to 'scrutinise' the latest report/letter. I think it's clear now that the cabinet will blindly accept any recommendations from NPHET