Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

namloc1980

suicide_circus wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/delta-variant-rise-in-cases-dark-cloud-on-horizon-for-irelands-reopening-varadkar-40572220.html

Dark clouds lads, dark clouds...

He's parroting exactly what Tony said a week or two ago about dark clouds on the horizon.

landofthetree

WHO expert saying restrictions will never end.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1407729894252060673

RunningFlyer

To think all this hype and panic is a direct result from Tony Holohan’s tweet the other day.

If he stuck to his brief, advised government and stayed off social media maybe the country wouldn’t be an anxiety timebomb.

MOR316

landofthetree wrote: »

WHO expert saying restrictions will never end.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1407729894252060673

And some in this thread would have you believe that the fear, "hysteria" and the general fed up mindsets of some posters is all in their heads and they just make it up themselves...

dominatinMC

MOR316 wrote: »

NPHET and Ronan Glynn said back in April and May that they are not ruling out further lockdowns but, they don't want to do that.

Essentially, it was suggested as a possibility by the health authorities. Whether it happens or not, is anyone's guess.

Look, I think we're getting into semantics here. Here again we see the word possibility. Anything is possible, no one can predict the future. However, what a certain cohort on this thread are doing is taking a possible scenario to mean probable/likely scenario.



Look at it this way, ask any politician if another lockdown is possible, and they will try and deflect the question and maybe if you press them will say something along the lines of MM and say "it can't be ruled out as anything is possible with this virus". However, ask them if another lockdown is probable, and I am confident they would say "highly unlikely". Now I do admit that last bit is speculation on my part, but I see no evidence to suggest the contrary.

lee_baby_simms

RunningFlyer wrote: »

To think all this hype and panic is a direct result from Tony Holohan’s tweet the other day.

If he stuck to his brief, advised government and stayed off social media maybe the country wouldn’t be an anxiety timebomb.

We’ve seen repeatedly that Tony values fear over education.

More fear = more compliance.

It’s that simple. He’s admitted this more or less a few times when he’s talked about being concerned that the levels of worry in the community are not high enough.

We have long passed the point where the public are far more frightened of NPHETs restrictions than the virus itself.

MOR316

dominatinMC wrote: »

Look, I think we're getting into semantics here. Here again we see the word possibility. Anything is possible, no one can predict the future. However, what a certain cohort on this thread are doing is taking a possible scenario to mean probable/likely scenario.



Look at it this way, ask any politician if another lockdown is possible, and they will try and deflect the question and maybe if you press them will say something along the lines of MM and say "it can't be ruled out as anything is possible with this virus". However, ask them if another lockdown is probable, and I am confident they would say "highly unlikely". Now I do admit that last bit is speculation on my part, but I see no evidence to suggest the contrary.

It's all speculative.
The only people who know what's going to happen are NPHET

Anyways, I gave up a long time ago so I'm not fussed anymore

dominatinMC

landofthetree wrote: »

WHO expert saying restrictions will never end.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1407729894252060673

But yet restrictions have ended in plenty of countries such as Israel, USA (most states), Denmark, to name a few...


And if you read the article and watch the interview, he doesn't actually state that "restrictions will never end". What he actually said was " I am advocating continued physical distancing, continued mask wearing for the time being, including in countries where there's a lot of vaccination"
But I wouldn't expect anything less from Sky News..

MOR316

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

We’ve seen repeatedly that Tony values fear over education.

More fear = more compliance.

It’s that simple. He’s admitted this more or less a few times when he’s talked about being concerned that the levels of worry in the community are not high enough.

We have long passed the point where the public are far more frightened of NPHETs restrictions than the virus itself.

I'm at a loss as to who he's trying to scare or why tbh.

All my family are vaccinated. As our my friends. Why should I be scared or worried?

Same goes for anyone else in the same boat

MOR316

dominatinMC wrote: »

But yet restrictions have ended in plenty of countries such as Israel, USA (most states), Denmark, to name a few...


And if you read the article and watch the interview, he doesn't actually state that "restrictions will never end". What he actually said was " I am advocating continued physical distancing, continued mask wearing for the time being, including in countries where there's a lot of vaccination"
But I wouldn't expect anything less from Sky News..

It's the media! They're scum! Simple as!

growleaves

dominatinMC wrote: »

Look, I think we're getting into semantics here. Here again we see the word possibility. Anything is possible, no one can predict the future. However, what a certain cohort on this thread are doing is taking a possible scenario to mean probable/likely scenario.



Look at it this way, ask any politician if another lockdown is possible, and they will try and deflect the question and maybe if you press them will say something along the lines of MM and say "it can't be ruled out as anything is possible with this virus". However, ask them if another lockdown is probable, and I am confident they would say "highly unlikely". Now I do admit that last bit is speculation on my part, but I see no evidence to suggest the contrary.

I am interpreting it as not extremely unlikely on the basis of what I consider the low bar of panic/concern that triggered previous lockdowns. Yes that is partly a matter of my own assumptions.

MM/NPHET could rule it out but won't because they still see lockdown as the best course of action if anything should go awry.

The governors of Texas, Florida and South Dakota have categorically ruled out lockdowns because they believe lockdowns are infeffective.

I'm not trying to bicker with you, I'm just explaining how I see that it could play out.

Stormyteacup

seamus wrote: »

"If cases rise". And the IT says that's from "political sources". Could be Mattie McGrath for all we know.

Changes to the plans have always been subject to "if cases rise", so that's not anything new.

The proportion of cases being Delta, is going to continue rising. That's how variants work. The only thing that's important is the overall trajectory.

So if we've 4,000 cases last week, 20% Delta, and 3,000 cases this week, 40% Delta, then we're still in a great place.

It's when the cases are rising and the proportions changing that we need to be concerned.

"Concern about the rise in the proportion of variant X" is deliberate obfuscation to make it sound like cases are actually rising. Tony is not above using language in this way to try and communicate the need for caution. It's well-intentioned, but it's a mistake IMO.

I completely agree. But this is not what is being communicated.

‘The fear in Government is Delta could account for 40 per cent of cases next week, and 60-70 per cent the following week. Currently it accounts for 20 per cent of cases.’

Your interpretation of the quoted part of the article i posted before is that they are talking about a delay if total cases rise, however I read it as their worry is percentage rise proportionately of Delta variant.

Aside from that ‘if total cases rise’ shouldn’t be a reason to delay 5th July anyway at this point surely. As a metric in the past when hospitalisation rate was 3 to 7 percent, it made some sense. I don’t know what the rate is now, must be below 1% - it was 2% in May.

Tony is also not above advising a delay to next phase reopening based solely on Delta variant percentage, regardless of total case numbers.

RGS

We all know our government are clueless and are scared of NPHET.

It is clear the re opening of indoor hospitality will be pushed back and then travel will be pushed back, these spectator trial events will probably be shelved.

What is needed is for NPHET and Government ministers to volunteer to spend the next 12 months on PUP to fully appreciate what they are asking the hospitality sector to endure.

IMO NPHET are going for zero covid by the back door.

thebaz

41 people in hospital , and the Doom and Gloom in the the media, with never ending threats on the opening of our society for a variant , we are unsure of , but portrayed as if it's fatal - what a terrible world we are living in , crippling us all with unneccesssary Fear and anxiety and forgetting how to actually live.

normanoffside

thebaz wrote: »

41 people in hospital , and the Doom and Gloom in the the media, with never ending threats on the opening of our society for a variant , we are unsure of , but portrayed as if it's fatal - what a terrible world we are living in , crippling us all with unneccesssary Fear and anxiety and forgetting how to actually live.

There are almost the same number of NPHET members (37) as people in Hospital with Covid (41)

Vicxas

And here comes the climbdown.

Leo has said that July 5th was just a "target" and wasnt a confirmed date.

What an absolute shower

hynesie08

Vicxas wrote: »

And here comes the climbdown.

Leo has said that July 5th was just a "target" and wasnt a confirmed date.

What an absolute shower

And what part of that is a lie?

niallo27

gozunda wrote: »

Ah yes - "the streets" - we've had various factions calling for taking to the streets from March 2020. We've seen how that's went.

As to our leadership. It's been more or less whats its always been.

One thing I do have to give them and leaving aside the criticism. We've achieved one of the lowest case and death rates when we look at our nearest European neighbours and our vaccination programme is going full sail.

Personally I'm OK with not flinging the baby out with the bathwater completely until we have reached our vaccination targets. And yes I understand not everyone sees that as a priority. But I dont see any restrictions being reinpossed with our current progress.

Interesting, what exactly are our vaccination targets. Are these published somewhere we can see or are they just make it up crap as usual. Have to laugh at your last point, by being one of the last countries to relax restrictions in the world will mean we won't have to reinpose them, ground breaking stuff there from you.

namloc1980

hynesie08 wrote: »

And what part of that is a lie?

There's 41 people in hospital ffs. 0.0008% of the population.

They have deliberately misled people. Get the vaccine programme running, get numbers down and things would look positive was the cry for the whole year. We did that. We sacrificed months and yet here we are just getting more threats that reopening will be delayed and shiite about dark clouds on the horizon. Absolute shower. I'm fckuing sick of it.

thebaz

Vicxas wrote: »

And here comes the climbdown.

Leo has said that July 5th was just a "target" and wasnt a confirmed date.

What an absolute shower

Ther is practically zero chance of things opening up in July - my fear is what is going to happen in November when respitory illness traditionally start to peak and hospitals become over-crowded - NPHET will then be celebrating 2 years controlling the country.
What a horrible world we are (supposedly) living in.

hynesie08

namloc1980 wrote: »

There's 41 people in hospital ffs. 0.0008% of the population.

Exactly, we've hit all the necessary targets to open on the 5th

They have deliberately misled people. Get the vaccine programme running, get numbers down and things would look positive was the cry for the whole year. We did that. We sacrificed months and yet here we are just getting more threats that reopening will be delayed and shiite about dark clouds on the horizon. Absolute shower. I'm fckuing sick of it.

Ever since the level 3 climb down, they have always dealt in caveats and maybes, this is no different.

namloc1980

hynesie08 wrote: »

Exactly, we've hit all the necessary targets to open on the 5th

So why all this talk of delays etc? And this isn't just media speculation. It's coming from the politicians themselves.

hynesie08

namloc1980 wrote: »

So why all this talk of delays etc? And this isn't just media speculation. It's coming from the politicians themselves.

Caveats and maybes, we went through this 4 weeks ago as well, and when the 5k was lifted.

MOR316

namloc1980 wrote: »

So why all this talk of delays etc? And this isn't just media speculation. It's coming from the politicians themselves.

I have no idea why other factors aren't been taking into consideration by the Government. I have no idea why they're so eager to pass all of this off to NPHET.

gozunda

niallo27 wrote: »

Interesting, what exactly are our vaccination targets. Are these published somewhere we can see or are they just make it up crap as usual. Have to laugh at your last point, by being one of the last countries to relax restrictions in the world will mean we won't have to reinpose them, ground breaking stuff there from you.

I suspect you already know. But no matter - afaik the main target is providing a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine to 82% of adults. Theres a government document somewhere but atm on a mobile so maybe do a search there and you should find it.

Not sure where were at with that but according to recent sources that date of end of June will be missed due to supply issues etc - I think I saw mid July as a revised date.

Well no the point was that some apparently were in hysterics that restrictions were going to be reimposed. I really don't believe they are.

But no not "from me" or whatever type of pointy stick thing is being jabbed there ..

namloc1980

hynesie08 wrote: »

Caveats and maybes, we went through this 4 weeks ago as well, and when the 5k was lifted.

Good job businesses, especially indoor food businesses, can happily live with ifs and buts and complete uncertainty and confusion of what's going to happen.

charlie14

normanoffside wrote: »

For once an interesting piece from Prime Time- how Denmark is using Raoid tests (AKA Snake Oil) to open everything.
Remember NPHET have consistently told us not to use testing to enable? Yet Denmark use it and has lower deaths, cases etc despite lower vaccinations than us.

https://twitter.com/rte_primetime/status/1407457695746117639?s=21

It`s not quite that simple in Denmark.
To even enter a non-essential business such as a hairdresser a passport showing you have been vaccinated, proof of a previous infection 2 to 12 weeks earlier, or a negative test result (not a self administered antigen test) within the previous 72 hours is required.

I assume from your post you would be happy with the same requirements here, but somehow I don`t see those who have not yet received a vaccine being too happy with them.

hynesie08

namloc1980 wrote: »

Good job businesses, especially indoor food businesses, can happily live with ifs and buts and compete uncertainty and confusion of what's going to happen.

Would it be better if they gave them a speculative yes and then pulled the rug next week?

namloc1980

hynesie08 wrote: »

Would it be better if they gave them a speculative yes and then pulled the rug next week?

But why the fook are they even talking about pulling the rug next week?? That's the question. Hospitalisations are down 98% since January. Deaths have fallen off a cliff. 7 day average of cases is pretty much on a stable downward trajectory for 4 months straight now.

Let me guess.....but but but but Delta.

MOR316

hynesie08 wrote: »

Would it be better if they gave them a speculative yes and then pulled the rug next week?

That's kind of what they've done. Both NPHET and Government

A lot of places started taking bookings for indoor dining last week. Some places are booked up for the week of the 5th onwards...

MM said no changes for the 5th of July less than 24 hours ago and then they wake up to him doing a U turn, not even 10 hours later...

I mean, kinda is pulling the rug there tbf...Even worse, they've leaving them hanging