Dublin Bay South By-Election

KevRossi

DBS has the highest amount of rented accomodation in the country. Of course, a lot of these residents can't/won't vote as they are either registered down the country or are non-nationals. This is generally reflected in the low turnout. Those who can vote tend to be in the ABC category.

It has swathes of low income and social housing, but the anti-government/left vote will be split by too many candidates making it easier for a FG win.

In 2020 the breakdown was:

FG.... 27.7
GP..... 22.4
SF..... 16.1
FF..... 13.8
Lab.... 8.0
SD.... 4.5
PBP... 2.5
Oth... 4.9

Some of it is personality driven, some ideological. If voting is over 2 days, as has been proposed, then it may make for a better turnout.

Hard to see past a FG win right now, but it's a minimum of 4 weeks away, the televised debates are yet to come and a lot can happen.

I think if FG can keep Geoghegan out of the spotlight then they'll do OK, but I've no idea how he'll fare with the spotlight on him.

Boylan should do well in the debates and she'll come across well with the female and professional classes, it's the SF beside her name that will turn many potential voters off her. Her potential swing voters will probably head to Bacik. That's the issue here, if Lab ran Humphries or another annonymous man, then Boylan would have a genuine chance, but not with Bacik. Also expect SF, with MLMD at the helm to tear strips off Labour and split the vote further.

So I think the vote will be split too evenly and FG will win.

After seeing the betting for this intriguing by election Lynn Boylan is great value at 9/2. The only problem for her is the fractured left vote that could be problematic not just for her but for Ivana Bacik.

Failure for FG to win here will be a disaster for Leo and his leadership. Good to see a lot of Female candidates in DBS hopefully a sign of things to come for future elections.

L1011

KevRossi wrote: »

Seems that if Ivana Bacik or Lynn Boylan win the seat, then there's an automatic Seanad By-election. Using the government rota system this seat goes to the Greens.

So who would get the seat? Hazel Chu would probably put her name forward, I wonder if another GP candidate would dare?

That would be fun.

A Trinity by election would not have the Oireachtas constituency electorate so could not be effectively awarded by the Government. The seat would almost certainly go somewhere Left based on the electorate

Beechwoodspark

Kathy hannon just said on RTÉ there will be breaking news about the line up for the by election on her show at 1.

coylemj

Blut2 wrote: »

It shows how weak Geoghegan is as a candidate (or how much anger there is out there at FG currently I guess) that hes not a runaway favourite here. This should be one of the safest seats in the country for a FG by-election candidate to run in.

This by-election isn't going to bring down the Govt. so people have the luxury of voting for whoever they want in order to send whatever message they want to send to the Govt. For Geoghegan to be odds-on favourite is a pretty good position to be in.

Golf Crazy Guy wrote: »

Failure for FG to win here will be a disaster for Leo and his leadership.

It will not. The general rule is that Govt. candidates do badly in by-elections. For many years through the 80s and 90s, Noel Tracey (FF East Galway) had the distinction of being the last Govt. candidate to win a by-election. Because for about 20 years, no party then in Govt. won a seat in a by-election.

If Geoghegan fails to hold the seat for FG, Leo will come out, say the electorate wanted to send a message to the Govt. and it's been received loud and clear. He doesn't need anyone to write the script for him, it's said after most by-elections.

expectationlost

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Kathy hannon just said on RTÉ there will be breaking news about the line up for the by election on her show at 1.

I presume its this but pretty sure Toibin tweeted about it last night https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1401155659903737861

AndrewJRenko

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Kathy hannon just said on RTÉ there will be breaking news about the line up for the by election on her show at 1.

She said at the end of the show that Micky McDowell is NOT going to run. Did anyone seriously think that he would?

L1011

Tobin adds another sister to sinking ship is not really Breaking News!

2% max that'll probably transfer to FG

Larbre34

Please tell me her twitter handle is @Toibí;n2.

coylemj

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

She said at the end of the show that Micky McDowell is NOT going to run. Did anyone seriously think that he would?

I doubt if anyone thought so. Imagine if he was elected and (as an independent TD) he had to chose between sitting beside either Mattie McGrath or Danny Healy Rae!

I'd say he's happy enough in the Seanad.

L1011

Larbre34 wrote: »

Please tell me her twitter handle is @Toibí;n2.

He has another sister as one of their three councillors, so it should be @toibin3.

Annasopra

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Deirdre Conroy is probably the worst candidate in the pack, regardless of party.
And what came out yesterday about her skiing accident has a stink of Maria Bailey off it.
I'm not surprised she is 6th. Its also clearly not a FF heartland as they only run 1 candidate every election don't they?

That the blog wasnt immediately deleted shows the party isnt even bothering with her campaign

Can't seem to find an answer to this online.

I have an address in DBS, lived there for eight continuous years. Moved house about a year ago, but the house is still for sale. Can I vote?

I'm sure I can rock down to the polling station when the polling card comes through the letterbox, but is it legal? I live in Tipperary, am registered in DBS.

DBS has such a transient population, I'm sure a lot of people who have recently moved in/out are wondering about their status.

AndrewJRenko

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Can't seem to find an answer to this online.

I have an address in DBS, lived there for eight continuous years. Moved house about a year ago, but the house is still for sale. Can I vote?

I'm sure I can rock down to the polling station when the polling card comes through the letterbox, but is it legal? I live in Tipperary, am registered in DBS.

DBS has such a transient population, I'm sure a lot of people who have recently moved in/out are wondering about their status.

AFAIK, if you're on the register, then you can vote, provided you don't vote elsewhere in the same election. You don't actually need the polling card to vote - just to be on the register. You'll probably get more ID checks if you don't have the card.

AndrewJRenko

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

AFAIK, if you're on the register, then you can vote, provided you don't vote elsewhere in the same election. You don't actually need the polling card to vote - just to be on the register. You'll probably get more ID checks if you don't have the card.

Yeah, the polling card and IDs aren't an issue, I'll have those. I don't live there anymore, though.

I suppose morally, I shouldn't vote, but am a householder. Does anyone know which provision/amendment of the Electoral Act applies here? It probably applies to thousands of DBS (former) residents. The population tends to drift in and out.

I'd even suppose that people now living outside the district (but still registered there) would run into the thousands.

Bubbaclaus

I find it interesting that Geoghegan seems to be getting a decent bit of grief for having recently moved out of the constituency. Its not uncommon for TDs not to live in the constituency and he isn't the only person running that doesn't live in DBS. Boylan hasn't lived there in 42 years, as an example.

Peregrine

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I find it interesting that Geoghegan seems to be getting a decent bit of grief for having recently moved out of the constituency. Its not uncommon for TDs not to live in the constituency and he isn't the only person running that doesn't live in DBS. Boylan hasn't lived there in 42 years, as an example.

The Fine Gael website explicitly said that he lived in Ranelagh when his campaign started.

He does things to imply that he lives in Ranelagh like calling it his "home area" and showing up to Zoom meetings with the Ranelagh Luas stop as his background.
https://www.broadsheet.ie/2021/05/26/local-man-not-local/

https://twitter.com/wereontheditch/status/1397457818563850243?s=20
He wasn't getting any grief about that until he started claiming that he would be the voice for the generation locked out of the housing market and it turned out he was living in a €730,000 house in Clonskeagh. You reap what you sow.

Bubbaclaus

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Its not uncommon for TDs not to live in the constituency

It's pretty unusual. I can think of no other example, but there undboutedly are some.

I bet you can't name more than a handful of TDs who don't live in their constituencies, and that means it is uncommon.

L1011

Bertie was the most notable case.

Bubbaclaus

L1011 wrote: »

Bertie was the most notable case.

Gerry Adams was a notable one also.

RandomViewer

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Gerry Adams was a notable one also.

He owned a house there, Joe McHugh had to move back to Carigart when it looked like he'd lose his seat for living (is that a thing in Offaly)in Offaly

Annasopra

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Can't seem to find an answer to this online.

I have an address in DBS, lived there for eight continuous years. Moved house about a year ago, but the house is still for sale. Can I vote?

I'm sure I can rock down to the polling station when the polling card comes through the letterbox, but is it legal? I live in Tipperary, am registered in DBS.

DBS has such a transient population, I'm sure a lot of people who have recently moved in/out are wondering about their status.

Bring your passport or drivers license and Id say you will be able to

Annasopra

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I find it interesting that Geoghegan seems to be getting a decent bit of grief for having recently moved out of the constituency. Its not uncommon for TDs not to live in the constituency and he isn't the only person running that doesn't live in DBS. Boylan hasn't lived there in 42 years, as an example.

Its not because he doesnt live there. Its because he continuously claimed he lived there.

Kermit.de.frog

Peregrine wrote: »

He wasn't getting any grief about that until he started claiming that he would be the voice for the generation locked out of the housing market and it turned out he was living in a €730,000 house in Clonskeagh. You reap what you sow.

I'm confused. Why would somebody not be able to represent people just because they live in an expensive house?

That's just begrudgery at the end of the day, isn't it?

Annasopra

Annasopra wrote: »

Bring your passport or drivers license and Id say you will be able to

I'll be able to, but am I supposed to? What exactly is the state of the law?

That Statute Book website is an unholy mess, I might add. The Electoral Acts aren't consolidated, which they could very easily be.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm confused. Why would somebody not be able to represent people just because they live in an expensive house?

That's just begrudgery at the end of the day, isn't it?

Generally, it is just begrudgery. There is absolutely no reason why James Geoghegan could not be an effective representative.

Where he has run aground, is having indicated that he can identify with people "locked out" of the housing market. That tends to mislead the electorate.

KevRossi

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I'll be able to, but am I supposed to? What exactly is the state of the law?

That Statute Book website is an unholy mess, I might add. The Electoral Acts aren't consolidated, which they could very easily be.

I work as a poll clerk/presiding officer. The rule is as follows, no idea what the Act is, this was just a synopsis of the law:

A person must be "ordinarily resident" at the relevant address on 1 September preceding the coming into force of the register. A person may be registered at one address only. If a person has more than one address - for example, a person living away from home to attend college - the registration authority should be told the address for which the person wishes to be registered.

A person who leaves his or her ordinary residence with the intention of returning there within 18 months can continue to be registered there, subject to the overriding condition that they may be registered at one address only.

I agree that the system is a mess. I used to be a clerk in an area with a lot of rented accommodation, we would struggle to hit 50%. It wasn't unusual to see 7 or 8 people registered in a typical 3/4 bed house as they had left and never deregistered.

KevRossi

KevRossi wrote: »

I work as a poll clerk/presiding officer. The rule is as follows, no idea what the Act is, this was just a synopsis of the law:

Thank you, that answers the question exactly. I am not "ordinarily resident" at that house, so I can't vote. Damn it.

But I am grateful for getting a clear answer!

Bubbaclaus

RandomViewer wrote: »

He owned a house there, Joe McHugh had to move back to Carigart when it looked like he'd lose his seat for living (is that a thing in Offaly)in Offaly

Any link to him owning a house in Louth? Because Gerry Adams denied ever owning a house there, so would be interesting to see why that changed.

KevRossi

RandomViewer wrote: »

He owned a house there, Joe McHugh had to move back to Carigart when it looked like he'd lose his seat for living (is that a thing in Offaly)in Offaly

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Any link to him owning a house in Louth? Because Gerry Adams denied ever owning a house there, so would be interesting to see why that changed.

Adams never owned a house in Louth. He owns one in Belfast. He was alternately using an address of a friend in Louth and the constituency office in Dundalk.

He owns/part owns a holiday home in Donegal. He says it's a shared ownership with the rest of his family.

El Tarangu

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I bet you can't name more than a handful of TDs who don't live in their constituencies, and that means it is uncommon.

Mick Wallace, when he was a TD for Wexford, lived in Dublin.

Richard Bruton no longer lives in the constituency he represents, since they changed the boundary before the last election.

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Any link to him owning a house in Louth? Because Gerry Adams denied ever owning a house there, so would be interesting to see why that changed.

AFAIR, Gerry Adams was adamant that he only owned one house, in Belfast, though seemingly had exclusive access to the house in Louth & another in Donegal.