COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

is_that_so

celt262 wrote: »

It's promised deliveries arriving and shortage of syringes that i would be worried about.

One would assume syringes are covered. As for deliveries AZ has proven itself to be unreliable so we can probably expect continuing issues there. The other two know what they are doing and can probably be trusted on their promises. I can even see J&J replacing AZ as the second vaccine by deliveries.

trellheim

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It really wasn't, all along April, May and June have been mentioned for an large increase in supply. It was well flagged that the first few months would be difficult and Q1 supplies would be limited.

umm yeah but no but

If you read the frustration in Donnellys speech to the Dail on Thursday they are getting messed around tremendously on vaccine deliveries.

We are now into month 3 of q1 and the messing shows no signs of stopping ( and the minister gave no hint that it would stop, only falling back on this "oh q2 may be better" )

Handwaving severe supply issues into Q2 is wrong needs fixing NOW, we have aeroplanes (lots of them sitting idle) to go and get deliveries

marno21

We were told repeatedly by AstraZeneca in 2020 that they were mass manufacturing the vaccine at risk and once it got approved the issue would be trying to get it into arms quickly enough rather than any supply issues.

This turns out in hindsight to have been complete horseshít and they have been completely caught out in their ability to supply doses and meet contractual obligations.

Thanks everyone, is there really only 40,000 in Cohort 4? I thought they said closer to 160,000 last week.

stephenjmcd

trellheim wrote: »

umm yeah but no but

If you read the frustration in Donnellys speech to the Dail on Thursday they are getting messed around tremendously on vaccine deliveries.

We are now into month 3 of q1 and the messing shows no signs of stopping ( and the minister gave no hint that it would stop, only falling back on this "oh q2 may be better" )

Handwaving severe supply issues into Q2 is wrong needs fixing NOW, we have aeroplanes (lots of them sitting idle) to go and get deliveries

I listened to what he said and I'm not referring to him or any other politician.

I'm referring to what manufacturers have said previously where they all gave Q1 warnings. That's the point, when someone says oh they said Janaury for a ramp up, I don't recall any company saying that, Pfizer for example were quite clear when they expected to be able to increase production.

We will have to see what Q2 brings in terms of committed supply but with more manufacturing capacity being announced in the last few weeks it bodes well. The main supply issue is with one supplier let's not forget.

Not sure what having aeroplanes on the ground has to do with this, what do you want them to go and collect? Something that's not there to be collected? If it were that simple every country in Europe would rollup with their planes to the nearest manufacturing facility

is_that_so

trellheim wrote: »

umm yeah but no but

If you read the frustration in Donnellys speech to the Dail on Thursday they are getting messed around tremendously on vaccine deliveries.

We are now into month 3 of q1 and the messing shows no signs of stopping ( and the minister gave no hint that it would stop, only falling back on this "oh q2 may be better" )

Handwaving severe supply issues into Q2 is wrong needs fixing NOW, we have aeroplanes (lots of them sitting idle) to go and get deliveries

I wouldn't mind the Donnelly thing. The opposition understand what's going on but it's still a great chance to paint the government in a bad light. Again one supplier is largely to blame for all of this. We can't just roll up to a plant in Belgium and demand our supply, there's a process.

Renault 5

marno21 wrote: »

We were told repeatedly by AstraZeneca in 2020 that they were mass manufacturing the vaccine at risk and once it got approved the issue would be trying to get it into arms quickly enough rather than any supply issues.

This turns out in hindsight to have been complete horseshít and they have been completely caught out in their ability to supply doses and meet contractual obligations.

Over promise, Under deliver

It seems that all the powers involved have been caught from vaccines producers to Governments.

I fear that there are zero lessons learned as usual.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Thanks everyone, is there really only 40,000 in Cohort 4? I thought they said closer to 160,000 last week.

Who knows? Reid said 40,000 about a week or so ago. Few of these numbers stay the same for long.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I listened to what he said and I'm not referring to him or any other politician.

I'm referring to what manufacturers have said previously where they all gave Q1 warnings. That's the point, when someone says oh they said Janaury for a ramp up, I don't recall any company saying that, Pfizer for example were quite clear when they expected to be able to increase production.

We will have to see what Q2 brings in terms of committed supply but with more manufacturing capacity being announced in the last few weeks it bodes well. The main supply issue is with one supplier let's not forget.

Not sure what having aeroplanes on the ground has to do with this, what do you want them to go and collect? Something that's not there to be collected? If it were that simple every country in Europe would rollup with their planes to the nearest manufacturing facility

Prof Luke O Neill on Pat Kenny this morning saying Minister for Health should be on the phone today to all the manufacturers and suppliers of ALL vaccines trying to get extra supply. Its not going to miraculously land in our lap!
It's like the procurement of any product a business needs. There must be hundreds of CEO's and Senior Procurement Managers in the private sector who could take over this sourcing on behalf of the Government, agree a price, do a deal and let us get on with vaccination.

Vaccination is the only way we will get out of this and the sooner the better according to Luke O Neill (and so say most of us). This dithering around and blaming everyone while waiting until we see how Q2 goes (which is the end of June, half of 2021 over!!) is ridiculous. We are sitting looking at dead towns and dead cities, people without work, employment completely stalled, private sector and small businesses closed for a huge amount of the last year, no certainty in sight at all for hospitality, travel, visiting family. No chance of booking a few days respite for Easter, May Bank holiday, June Bank holiday. Just a big fat nothing.


People are despondent at this stage, there is a level of apathy and fatigue everywhere despite the better weather and brightening days. We are killing our nation with these restrictions. I believe in masks and social distancing but this 5KM restriction is complete insanity, its like a form of torture.

eoinbn

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It really wasn't, all along April, May and June have been mentioned for an large increase in supply. It was well flagged that the first few months would be difficult and Q1 supplies would be limited.

If AZ had delivered then our Q1 wouldn't be that far off the UK. That all changed when AZ cut the forecast to 31m and are only on schedule to deliver about 18m in Q1. We are missing 100m doses from those clowns.
The EU put most of our eggs in the AZ basket and we got burnt. The US split the risk a across AZ, Pfizer and Moderna. Each was to supply 100m in Q1. They also got burnt by AZ but even the Trump admin is more competent than the EU and planned for it. Pfizer and Moderna will both supply 100m+ to the US in Q1. That is more than the EU will get from AZ, Pfizer and Moderna combined.
The EU didn't have a backup plan. They signed the backup plan in February(more doses from BioNtech) while Trump was signing backup plans last summer. Once again most of our eggs are in 1 basket - this time BioNtech. If there are issues with the new plant then we will be in for a long summer.

jackryan34

marno21 wrote: »

We were told repeatedly by AstraZeneca in 2020 that they were mass manufacturing the vaccine at risk and once it got approved the issue would be trying to get it into arms quickly enough rather than any supply issues.

This turns out in hindsight to have been complete horseshít and they have been completely caught out in their ability to supply doses and meet contractual obligations.

Exactly my point, good post, artificial demand was maybe a bit too strong from me but its stunk for a long time.All the promises nearly a year back of mass manufacturing before approval, wasn't just Oxford/AZ either

In the corporate world its called a compliance product and for Pfizer, Moderna, J&J etc it looks that way to me right now

Van.Bosch

19,449 administered on Friday - a new high I think.

CrabRevolution

ixoy wrote: »

Impossible. Only Jokeshop Ireland has a supply issue!

Maybe this sort of thing, and Canada's issues, will drive home the supply issue is a worldwide thing that's impacting many first world countries and that the US and UK are outliers because it's still not fully understood.

If everyone had copied Israel, the entire population of the world would be vaccinated by now!

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Prof Luke O Neill on Pat Kenny this morning saying Minister for Health should be on the phone today to all the manufacturers and suppliers of ALL vaccines trying to get extra supply. Its not going to miraculously land in our lap!
It's like the procurement of any product a business needs. There must be hundreds of CEO's and Senior Procurement Managers iin the private sector who could take over this sourcing on behalf of the Government, agree a price, do a deal and let us get on with vaccination.

Vaccination is the only way we will get out of this and the sooner the better according to Luke O Neill (and so say most of us). This dithering around and blaming everyone while waiting until we see how Q2 goes (which is the end of June, half of 2021 over!!) is ridiculous.

MoH has nothing to do with vaccine procurement, it's the HSE. There are only 3 vaccines approved, one is tiny, one can't seem to deliver and one says from next month. Disappointed that happy clappy Luke is pandering to the overall sense of frustration with this. Q2 is three weeks away and we should have more good news for Q2 on Thursday.

Apogee

Apogee wrote: »

Thursday No: 18,709 (highest one day). Large chunk of which are Cohort 3 - approx 10K.

Friday No: 19,070 administered (highest to date). Another ~10K to Cohort 3. Mon-Fri: 70,106. Passed the 500K mark - 513,322.

is_that_so

CrabRevolution wrote: »

If everyone had copied Israel, the entire population of the world would be vaccinated by now!

No, we'd have even more shortages as they used one vaccine! How a population of 9m was supplied is not a good model.

trellheim

yes it was, but not by much , not their fault though.

As Marno and others have pointed out this is clown car levels of procurement where the fk are the EU on this

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

MoH has nothing to do with vaccine procurement, it's the HSE. There are only 3 vaccines approved, one is tiny, one can't seem to deliver and one says from next month. Disappointed that happy clappy Luke is pandering to the overall sense of frustration with this. Q2 is three weeks away and we should have more good news for Q2 on Thursday.

the poster I was replying to said we need to "wait and see how Q2 goes" which does not mean 3 weeks time. It means waiting an seeing how the 3 months of Q2 goes before we can judge. That is the end of June. People are not being given hope. That is half of 2021 gone.

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

the poster I was replying to said we need to "wait and see how Q2 goes" which does not mean 3 weeks time. It means waiting an seeing how the 3 months of Q2 goes before we can judge. That is the end of June. People are not being given hope. That is half of 2021 gone.

By wait and see how Q2 goes I mean I'm reserving judgement on expected deliveries v actual deliveries until we're into Q2 and we see what they're delivering v what was promised / forecast. Not waiting until the end of June. We'll know pretty quickly if Q2 deliveries are looking on track or not. You've taken the comment out of the context it was intended.

We can't judge Q2 this morning for example.

Not going to get into hypothetical situations.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

the poster I was replying to said we need to "wait and see how Q2 goes" which does not mean 3 weeks time. It means waiting an seeing how the 3 months of Q2 goes before we can judge. That is the end of June. People are not being given hope. That is half of 2021 gone.

I wouldn't say that about Q2. Pfizer have said they will ramp up and we'll know in about 3 weeks, not June. We'll also have J&J very soon even if AZ are just not worth trusting at all on deliveries.

ixoy

is_that_so wrote: »

No, we'd have even more shortages as they used one vaccine! How a population of 9m was supplied is not a good model.

Pretty sure they were taking the piss.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

I wouldn't say that about Q2. Pfizer have said they will ramp up and we'll know in about 3 weeks, not June. We'll also have J&J very soon even if AZ are just not worth trusting at all on deliveries.

As per a HSE interview at the weekend, they expect 200,000 doses into the country in the last week of March. That's what the manufacturers are telling them anyway, it would be a significant increase on the current deliveries should it come to pass.

is_that_so

ixoy wrote: »

Pretty sure they were taking the piss.

That is very hard to say sometimes!

stephenjmcd

AZ have assigned a country manager to Ireland. Should hopefully make things a little easier for the HSE when dealing with them

jackryan34

CrabRevolution wrote: »

If everyone had copied Israel, the entire population of the world would be vaccinated by now!

Israel was a technological showcase by Pfizer

Don't think Pfizer ever planned to mass produce that vaccine, they probably assumed AZ etc would take up that role

Tippbhoy1

Deleted User wrote: »

Prof Luke O Neill on Pat Kenny this morning saying Minister for Health should be on the phone today to all the manufacturers and suppliers of ALL vaccines trying to get extra supply. Its not going to miraculously land in our lap!
It's like the procurement of any product a business needs. There must be hundreds of CEO's and Senior Procurement Managers in the private sector who could take over this sourcing on behalf of the Government, agree a price, do a deal and let us get on with vaccination.

Vaccination is the only way we will get out of this and the sooner the better according to Luke O Neill (and so say most of us). This dithering around and blaming everyone while waiting until we see how Q2 goes (which is the end of June, half of 2021 over!!) is ridiculous. We are sitting looking at dead towns and dead cities, people without work, employment completely stalled, private sector and small businesses closed for a huge amount of the last year, no certainty in sight at all for hospitality, travel, visiting family. No chance of booking a few days respite for Easter, May Bank holiday, June Bank holiday. Just a big fat nothing.


People are despondent at this stage, there is a level of apathy and fatigue everywhere despite the better weather and brightening days. We are killing our nation with these restrictions. I believe in masks and social distancing but this 5KM restriction is complete insanity, its like a form of torture.

Disappointing to hear someone of influence peddling such ridiculous comments around procurement. Basic economics and economies of scale gone out the window, let alone any agreements we have made within the EU. For vaccines suppliers that are supplying the EU, we won’t get ahead of them. Even if we could, the supply would dry up from the EU very quickly so we would have to write off the current plan and hope some new plan is going to sort us. People are deluded if they think some mid level suit in the HSE is going to rock up to Pfizer and they’re going to put us to the top of the queue. I can appreciate that people are getting frustrated but demand is enormous for something in short supply. Look at where Ireland is in the global table, we are right up there, this is the message people need to focus on.

If there was a proposal to source the Russian vaccine or one of the Chinese ones there might have been some merit in the conversation. Even then I’m not sure how soon that could bring value, if at all.

jackryan34

CrabRevolution wrote: »

If everyone had copied Israel, the entire population of the world would be vaccinated by now!

Israel was a technological showcase by Pfizer

Don't think Pfizer ever planned to mass produce that vaccine, they probably assumed AZ etc would take up that role

is_that_so

jackryan34 wrote: »

Israel was a technological showcase by Pfizer

Don't think Pfizer ever planned to mass produce that vaccine, they probably assumed AZ etc would take up that role

This would disagree with that claim.

https://www.pfizer.ie/news/2020/05/05/pfizer-and-biontech-dose-first-participants-us-part-global-covid-19-mrna-vaccine

ixoy

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

Disappointing to hear someone of influence peddling such ridiculous comments around procurement. Basic economics and economies of scale gone out the window, let alone any agreements we have made within the EU.

Yeah, it's a bit puzzling. Do they think when they hear Paul Reid on the phone, they'll go: "Ah Paul, how are ya! Sure no bother, you can have all of these excess vaccines ahead of the EU order even though that was set up months ago. Just pop the brown envelope my way. Slán!"

jackryan34

is_that_so wrote: »

This would disagree with that claim.

https://www.pfizer.ie/news/2020/05/05/pfizer-and-biontech-dose-first-participants-us-part-global-covid-19-mrna-vaccine

Why didn't they mass produce it back in summer 2020 then? Have it ready pre approval.

They had 6 months

Dont tell me Pfizer can't mass produce products