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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,115 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 21,654 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Ok, whatever. It will be terrible for the country but at least I'll have the consolation when the "I told you so" moment arrives 😊

    Let's see what happens over the next few months.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 25,265 Mod ✭✭✭✭ looksee


    Why would it be a consolation to be right if something terrible happens?



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,115 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    "Few months" but you told us your I told you so moment was going to come on a Monday last month and back in January and before that periodically for 6 years



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,335 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Glad to see you're still here.

    Essentially, what we all knew all along is indeed true. The EU didn't just negotiate a deal with the UK naively assuming that a man who has lied to the British people, the sovereign, Parliament and every woman he's ever touched would just adhere in good faith. There are provisions for the UK reneging and it's refreshing to see that highlighted.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,641 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody


    The problem is the people who would read it are, in general, already well aware of the consequences. The people who will see the Telegraph headline of "EU punishing the UK" are as well set in their mind. The UK government as we've already seen are incapable of thinking beyond what to order for lunch while standing at the bar, let alone read or listen to advise from civil service etc. In a way I'm wondering if Trump was not more well read up than the UK government appears to be because at least he'd read the daily brief because they filled it with his name in it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,988 ✭✭✭ Working class heroes


    If your weather forecasts are anything to go by your political forecasts don't hold much weight.

    A man who knows he knows nothing knows more than a man who thinks he knows everything.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    The EU were able to get a decision from the ECJ in a hurry when they needed it while May was having difficulty making up her mind, so if they need the decision on the NI Protocol in a hurry, and its lack of implementation to date, they will get that as well.

    If the EU take action in the form of sanctions, it will not be in the form of checks on Irish trade. It will be to attack the UK's soft underbelly, and that means attack the choke points of their international trade. Read that as - City of London, Dover, airlines.

    The handling (and delay) of British tourists and British residents in the EU would be a good way of getting the British (English) population riled up. So long queues at passport control and customs clearance would certainly make an unmissable point.

    The EU will follow the Sergeant Major's advice to recruits - 'First I asks you, then I tells you, then I makes you!' We are getting close to stage three of that advice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    I enjoy their weather contributions. They're thought out and backed up by data. It's a fickle science though so no blame for the outcome being different to the original fore ast.

    Difference here is their contributions are pure pony. The sum total of which amounts to the original Brexit war cry of 'They need us more than we need them' crap. Even though its dressed up up to appear different.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭ Enzokk


    I don't think Sean Kelly has said anything we have not been saying on here. If push comes to shove we could be forced out of the SM as checks will need to be done. But our hope, and it seems like his as well, is that the actions of the EU, should the UK actually pull the trigger, will lead to a quick backdown from the UK due to the consequences they will face.


    I will note as well that you have said we are in the process of being forced outside of the EU already. I am sorry but for me that means some checks and customs posts to check goods heading to the SM in Ireland which is not happening. You seem to be throwing a lot of mud at the wall to see what sticks and when one of your predictions come true, a possibility, then you will claim to have been right all along. That is very much like JRM claiming the UK should ignore forecasts from the OBR because they are never 100% correct, failing to account for the fact that actions has been taken in the meantime to change the course to avoid those same predictions coming true.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,003 ✭✭✭✭ Podge_irl


    I don't think Sean Kelly has said anything we have not been saying on here. If push comes to shove we could be forced out of the SM as checks will need to be done

    I do not think that is true.

    Ultimately for now, there is not a massive risk of divergence with the UK (if they did this in 5-10 years time it would be a different story). I suspect very slow attempts to enforce some kind of check for goods coming from NI that originated in GB will start, while very quickly a veritable blockade will go up in France - which has more or less been flagged already when the EU mentions they are putting the TCA at risk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,173 ✭✭✭ fash


    Ultimately Ireland would stick a border between it & NI.

    Aside from the fact that Ireland did so previously if Ireland failed to do so, it would simply be submitting itself to British rule - permanently.

    There is no chance that if a border becomes necessary (as a consequence of British reneging), it won't be implemented between Ireland & NI.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,518 ✭✭✭ salonfire


    But the uncertainty is happening. And that is bound to be a topic of conversation in the board rooms when deciding Irish investment. Particularly export oriented companies.

    Madness that a country's border either sovereign or single market is in the hands of a third country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,173 ✭✭✭ fash


    Ireland isn't going to accept even a temporary solution where Ireland is cut off from the rest of the EU.

    If it did, then that becomes the permanent solution.

    A border between Ireland & NI (it may not be well policed to begin with) in place unless and until the UK government is broken is the only viable solution - as Ireland's history shows.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,381 ✭✭✭ 54and56


    Cut off from the rest of the EU?

    Bit dramatic!!

    People traveling from RoI already have to show ID to enter the rest of the EU as we're not part of Shengen, does that mean we're not already cut off? Would checking goods from RoI entering EU really cut us off?

    What would we be cut off from exactly?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭ Enzokk


    How long will it take to set up the infrastructure to initiate the checks from Ireland into the EU? Surely that will be the time that uncertainty is created and not in a hypothetical that we are discussing. Now hypotheticals could turn out to be true but much like OBR reports/predictions they rarely do as actions are taken to avert it from happening.


    I mean hypothetically Le Pen could win the French election and a majority to run the country and could take them out of the EU or change their relationship with the EU, but I don't see us starting to prepare for that at the moment based off what could happen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,115 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Its not in the hands of a 3rd country.

    This thread is really turning into a masturbatory session for deluded Irexiters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,115 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Le Pen dropped the Frexit nonsense when Brexit showed it to be a sham but she is still anti Euro.

    Although much like her buddies in Italy and Hungary she will probably chicken out of any real action on the EU.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,335 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    French pensioners won't wear their savings being trashed and that's precisely what Frexit would do.

    I can't believe we still have people believing that there's going to be a border between Ireland and NI. I still remember when Article 16 was the "own the Eurocrats" button and they never even pressed that.

    This appeared in my Twitter feed. Sounds about right.

    The man is completely deceitful and incapable of anything but lying. He's the worst prime minister since Eden though Eden at least cared about the country.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭ Diespies


    The NI Protocol Bill took a second step in HoC yesterday. Comment from Labour MP was revealing: the Tories want to take Ireland out of the EU.

    No one seems to realise that the danger is that with Bertie Ahern on board with the idea (see recent comments ), with what are effectively unionists or at best Home Rulers in FG/FF that it is now a definite possibility.

    Incredible that a decision by 52% of voting Brits will possibly determine the future of this country again 100 years after independence. The obsession with the North and appeasing unionists, ex UVF, and ex Provos has distorted politics for far too long.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,335 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Any day now. It's been six years and every single day has disproven this. Desperately alluding to something that Bertie Ahern probably didn't even say doesn't change this.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    Why would a British Labour MP have aany insider knowledge about what Ireland's status within the EU was? Or indeed, Bertie Ahern, a man 30 past relevancy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 641 ✭✭✭ Glaceon


    I can't believe we still have people believing that there's going to be a border between Ireland and NI

    I hope you're right. I'm not an Irexiter by any means but if the UK renege on the protocol and leave a hole in the SM, I fear that it may be a choice between a land border or a Celtic Sea border, at least temporarily.



  • Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭ Diespies


    People still don’t read posts. One last time: I said a Labour amp said what Tory aims were. She has to listen to them every day so she probably has a good idea.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,038 ✭✭✭ fly_agaric


    Yep, ultimately the EU is just a bit bigger and more important a peace project than NI even though politicians in NI may dispute this with their seemingly boundless arrogance and self importance + victimhood.

    The EU members will not let UK delegitimise (maybe destroy) the EU single market and lower its value to members (which is IMO the high level aim here), and if Ireland won't protect it for sake of NI and refuse to impose either customs formalities (paperwork) on NI goods or any physical checks on them, the other members will eventually be forced to start doing them on goods coming from this country sooner or later. The UK will take that as a lesser "win" of sorts for them (it draws Ireland back towards them and also damages the EU badly in a different manner).



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