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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,175 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    They have called his bluff on a number of occasions now.

    Every time he has said he is going to end his own "oven ready" deal nobody stops him but yet he doesn't go ahead. That's the textbook definition of calling his bluff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭ Ham Grenade


    Calm down lad. What I meant was that if the UK see this as a potential option being taken seriously by senior MEPs they will continue to undermine the NIP and proceed with associated legislation



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,424 ✭✭✭ wexfordman2



    Potential end of any argument regarding sps checks comming in to ireland from gb



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    Something being put in legislation has been mentioned multiple times in this thread, definitely by myself anyway. If the EU were to start a trade war and put pressure on the UK via the Channel, it makes sense that something would be written down saying the SM is protected. My own theory was that it would be a wishy washy thing not looked at properly for a couple of years or until the UK properly diverged.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,613 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia




  • Registered Users Posts: 21,708 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    The very idea my posts about Ireland leaving the SM are a fantasy - it's true and it's happening now as we type.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,372 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,708 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Not engaging beta. I, the alpha, have given you the answer already. Read back.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,353 ✭✭✭ schmoo2k



    If the UK do follow through on their latest kite flying exercise (and that is a bigger "if" than Sean Kellys), then at some point the existing checks on UK goods entering the SM will need to include goods from NI entering the SM. At that point I would expect our response to be very harsh (like Kermit wants).

    I think the only thing Kermit and I disagree on, is WHEN the harsh actions should be taken - IMO it shouldn't happen while its kite flying by the UK, which pushes it back at least 12 to 18 months.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    The choice is and always has been the same for the Republic. Hard border on the island or in the Celtic sea. The EU couldn't really do much about that without the UK playing some sort of ball.

    If the UK do follow through then they're not playing ball and their will of course need to be checks somewhere. The Republic will decide where wed prefer those checks.

    I would expect the EU to bring a trade war to the UKs doorstep in response but the checks are still required. Not sure what way I'd vote if given one, on the one hand I know what a border on the island would bring but the Celtic sea border not so much.

    Bombs and shootings are pretty visible but obstruction to business less so.

    Interesting times ahead regardless.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    Since Kermit always makes a splash here, can we entertain the idea of checks and what they would mean for Ireland? Land border is a complete no go.

    Personally, I don't think it would mean being out of the Single Market at all. Ireland's biggest physical exports:

    Pharmaceuticals: US$67.5 billion (35.5% of total exports)

    Organic chemicals: $37.3 billion (19.6%)

    Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $16.9 billion (8.9%)

    Electrical machinery, equipment: $15.4 billion (8.1%)

    Machinery including computers: $9.6 billion (5%)

    Perfumes, cosmetics: $5.4 billion (2.9%)

    Dairy, eggs, honey: $3.91 billion (2.1%)

    Other chemical goods: $3.9 billion (2.1%)

    Meat: $3.86 billion (2%)

    Aircraft, spacecraft: $3.4 billion (1.8%)

    If it takes 20+ hours for the ferries to reach mainland Europe, and you put every customs checker on those boats instead of on the UK - EU routes, the goods can be checked at sea. Along with some exceptionally harsh laws on smuggling and outlandish fees for going on the boat with a bad shipment, how could it not be managed?

    The EU could do its trade war unofficially by simply facilitating seamless trade between Ireland and the rest of the EU. Putting all of the customs check lads on those routes and incentivising EU ferry companies to serve Ireland would absolutely cripple the UK's imports and exports, and London couldn't even claim it was punitive. A trade war by accident. And of course the EU could take more explicit measures.

    I don't consider myself to be a complete numbskull so could anyone enlighten me as to why this worst case scenario is even that bad? We aren't the UK and our country isn't built around JIT with mainland Europe, and we have a long ferry on which to do checks unlike UK-EU. I just don't see why people say checks means we're out of the EU. Like look at our exports.. A lot of the most valuable stuff isn't even made in the UK.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody


    First of all, checks in Ireland is very much a possibility; the only thing you do is target where you do them and what you go after at the start (i.e. target trucks & vans with focus on the main through puts and put it a bit back from the border rather than try to catch every single point with a control combined with roaming checks). It does not necessary need to be 100% perfect day 1 but you can make it painfully clear to the NI business what it will entail to help put pressure on London (this is obviously done in tandem with all the other ports on mainland EU).

    Secondly I highly doubt you'll see checks on the ferries because they will need access to specific systems, specific tools to lift out pallets, run tests etc. which you don't have on the ferry. At best you can look at the paper work but that is unlikely to be enough as you can't even rely on something like seals (because you don't know what was packed in before the truck was sealed).



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    Without the UK diverging much, it would be enough to protect the EU for whatever period of time it is there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,175 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Land border is not a no go. The EU already operate big land borders and won't hesitate to do it again of they have to.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 10,717 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Hermy


    Am I reading this wrong or are you now admitting it's true that your posts about Ireland leaving the Single Market are fantasy?

    Genealogy Forum Mod



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,186 ✭✭✭ fash


    Actually the choice has always been Ireland's way or an economically crippled international pariah UK hurtling towards break up & bankruptcy.

    For the EU to allow a small dependent state to break its treaties with EU would inevitably invite disproportionate pain as a response - pour decourager les autres and prove to treaty partners keep their agreements



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,175 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Yes but it's not a "no go" it is definitely one of the possible outcomes. Far more possible than a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody


    Yes, and as an EU member state it's also Ireland's responsibility to protect the EU border. Ireland may not want an hard border, but that decision is not for Ireland to make and if it's pushed onto Ireland by for example the Australian hormone beef import in the new FTA (or Canada for that matter) they will be tasked to implement the controls like any other EU country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    It is a no go. It would instantly end all EU and US support for anything against the UK because we would be choosing to break the GFA for economic reasons. If we do that, we don't deserve support from anyone, and would be hypocrites for telling the UK to do internal checks to protect what we just break anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,175 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Who is this "we" shte. We as in Ireland/EU will not be breaking anything. We would be responding to the UK breaking the NIP.

    A land border may be the only option because a sea border within the EU is certainly a no go.

    We don't have EU support we are the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    "They made me do it" isn't a great excuse for breaking the GFA.

    What I always see suggested on here is random checks on trucks and I simply don't see why we wouldn't just do that on ferries so we can maintain the GFA and not introduce any notion of Ireland choosing economy over peace, because that's what would happen.

    Put every French customs officer on ferries to and from Ireland and let the UK crumble vs. Break the GFA and blame the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    And give me a break with the "We are the EU" nonsense. I'm not some Brexiteer.

    How can Ireland expect Holland and France to hurt their economies in a trade war, because Ireland doesn't want to hurt its economy? We'd be asking other countries to take the pain while also breaking the GFA.

    It's bananas anyone thinks it could ever happen.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 32,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Seth Brundle


    "They made me do it" isn't a great excuse for breaking the GFA.

    The only one that would have caused the breaking the GFA is the British government. This is clear for all to see.

    Anything done by the Irish government would simply be a reaction to that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,175 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Nope not "they made us do it" rather "they broke it"

    We would not blame the UK the UK would be guilty.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭ BlitzKrieg


    Are you subscribed to businesspost so you can share the full article? We got the bit thats teased but not the full article of where and when Sean Kelly said this. I'd like to know its not someone playing silly journalism for a dramatic headline.


    EDIT: In fact they dont seem to be promoting that article at all, it's not on their twitter or facebook either.



    Considering absolutely no other news source is running this quote in any form, means I doubt until I see the full article or collabrating second article.

    I've searched his twitter and could find no link to such a statement from him, the most he shared was the RTE report on him being made lead author in the draft legislation response: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0619/1305728-brexit-northern-ireland-protocol/

    Where he does give a very different response to what the business post is indicating. Now maybe things have changed in the EU between june 19th and june 25th but best I can do is tweet Mr Kelly himself to respond to the headline.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    If Ireland takes that approach, that would be the end of it as far as the EU were concerned. The outer border of the EU is protected. There would be no reason for mainland EU to hurt themselves in a trade war because there would be nothing to gain from such a trade war.

    That isn't even throwing Ireland under a bus. It's Ireland choosing to police the border and the problem's finally gone after 6+ years.



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