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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,375 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Where is this shift? Can you provide a source please?

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,188 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    So we just bow to the terrorists every time. The ROI has to suffer and take rules from the UK again because the clowns start threatening bombs (which is not definite). The Dail will not risk Irexit over the border.



  • Registered Users Posts: 329 ✭✭ Diespies


    What would warrant it?

    What you are suggesting sounds remarkably like the Brits proposal from day 1.

    Without going into detail do you work in international trade?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,894 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    No certainly not. As I've said previously I just about favour a land border but I'd hope it could be as light as possible.

    But if the EU go to town on the UK in a trade war then I'm happy to accept as hard as is required because fairs fair. But there's a lot of road to travel yet so I just don't see the point in posters claiming these weird absolutes like they have a part to play I'm proceedings.

    Plus from a Republican perspective I don't want any border with the 6 counties so that clearly basis my thinking somewhat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 329 ✭✭ Diespies


    The outcome of the Provos stupidity could actually be to undermine the independence of the 26 counties and we get dumped back in to some sort of GFA’d “shared island” dominated by Brits.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 329 ✭✭ Diespies


    We all have a part to play. It’s called democracy. I am fully in favour of a land border rather than any interference in Irelands full and unfettered (there you go) access to and membership of the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,894 ✭✭✭ PokeHerKing


    Well first you habe to be given a vote. Not a guarantee, democracy can be an illusion at times. Amd secondly if we do get a vote then it's still far from an absolute, your vote fies not mean the result.

    So either way speaking in absolutes helps neither the issue nor the discussion. It just comes across as angry man shouting at cloud.



  • Registered Users Posts: 329 ✭✭ Diespies


    We have votes. TDs voting us out of the EU in any shape or form will know. You raise an interesting question about absolutes: would a border between Ireland and EU require treaty change and referendum?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,884 ✭✭✭ ambro25


    Except the Brits never had any such solution working, nor much of any other, hence e.g. the record fine by the Commission over the Himalaya of Chinese tat that they had imported for years with little of any due customs/fiscal diligence.

    Brit goods customs are as dysfunctional as their immigration branch, after years (decades) of subbing customs clearance to agents in Netherlands, Belgium, France (EU harbours for incoming 3rd world goods) and that goes a long way to explain why the UK still does not check much of anything incoming from the EU - or from elsewhere. There’s a reason why the HGV queues happen only on the M20, and why many freight specialist call the current situation a “smuggler’s charter” (for smuggling stuff into the UK).

    Going back to my misspent youth and the very early 90s, I am an “International Trade” graduate (Commerce International, it was in FR). The pointy, hands-on end that familiarises and trains you with incoterms, bills of lading, fret negotiations and insuring, customs forms, etc. in addition to some foreign languages fluency, turning out “ready to work” freight forwarders and junior export execs, rather than the more ‘academic’ sort.

    These days I handle/manage IP, globally. Once in a blue moon with a little interfacing with customs in this or that country, for seizures of infringing goods.

    I knew life before the EU and the SM very well, saw them grow and businesses the length and breadth of the EU adapt with them, and have been enjoying them, personally and professionally, ever since. I know very well what the UK has lost, rest assured.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,494 ✭✭✭ newport2


    What if Sinn Fein are the next government? What would their position be on imposing a border in Ireland to preserve our place in the SM?



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,726 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,425 ✭✭✭ wexfordman2


    And if that fails, cos it will fail if it is done too early?



  • Registered Users Posts: 329 ✭✭ Diespies


    Which is in the gift on the Tory NI Secretary. And will not be granted.

    Imagine the Brexit victory dance and electoral success to follow from removing the Protocol, imposing a Celtic Sea border on Ireland, proving the EU was bluffing, weakening the EU to further Balkanize it and impose Brit interests on a divided entity, by extension demolishing the demand for Scottish independence and preserving the union.

    There would be a statue to Boris outside the Commons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,188 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    The checks on the NI border be as light as the UK choose them to be. The more they comply to EU standards the less checks.

    I'm not pretending I have a say so cut that crap. Im also just not making stuff up to suit an Irexit agenda or pretending that the EU can or will cut us from the single market in an unheard of and unprecedented move.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,188 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    I bet they would ya. The other option is to let Westminster win and also cripple our economy.

    By the way Ireland and the EU will not ever ever impose a border in Ireland and have made that clear. They even signed a treaty to stop such an occurrence.

    It is the UK government that will impose the border and no one else. Any other talk is victim blaming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,702 ✭✭✭✭ VinLieger


    Even if the torys were to call one, which they wont, theres still several years between it passing and a UI, so there would need to be short term solutions in place



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,726 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42


    My initial reply didn't explain. I didn't mean they would actually have one. jus they would ramp up the calls for one.

    Throw that in the mix and suddenly the UK government are actively playing with the union. The Scots would demand one as well. That is pretty intense political pressure and no UK PM want to be the one that signs off on the end of the the union.

    SF are not stupid, or short-sighted, enough to actually demand one. But if the Uk insist on ripping up the NIP, and thus meaning a border is required, I think SF will place the border (they have no choice if in government) with the line that a border poll is the only viable option at that stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭ FraserburghFreddie


    The shift I mentioned is evident on this thread.There was a time any talk of the EU imposing a hard border was unthinkable. Impossible to provide a source as the EU hasn't decided their plan of action.I don't think it will get that far personally and the UK will get their way with the EU saying we were offering that all along which may well be true but we won't get to hear that here in the UK..



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 10,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Quin_Dub


    I really don't think much has shifted really.

    The position here I think has always been that any introduction of a border will be as a direct response to UK misbehaviour as part of a package of penalties and sanctions implemented by the EU - One that I don't expect to last very long either.

    There will never be a scenario where the EU "offer" a border as a long-term solution to the UK's self-inflicted wounds as a result of Brexit.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,702 ✭✭✭✭ VinLieger


    Actually if you go back in this thread as well as its predecessors you can see that many pragmatists myself including have always said a border was far better than leaving the single market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,188 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    With someone like Johnson in charge Sinn Fein will probably vigorously call for a border poll knowing he will never allow one which is win/win for them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,188 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    The EU imposing a hard border is unthinkable. The EU will never impose a hard border in or around ROI.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,060 ✭✭✭ fly_agaric


    That's the usual twisty way brexiters and British nationalist types seem to frame all this.

    It won't be the EU "imposing" this border (for goods flowing between NI-Ireland, paperwork and/or involving physical checks somewhere at some stage), it'll be the UK putting Ireland (and EU) in quite a tough place deliberately for its politicial purposes and basically the wider geopolitical goals (disrupting & weakening the EU), and Ireland then chosing the lesser evil (in my view).

    If you think that's some kind of great achievement by the UK govt., well have at it. You can spin it all you want and sneer its the EU "imposing a border" etc etc but it won't make up down, or down up, and Irish people will see all this for what it is. I expect its going to make for some fairly poisonous relations with this country for a good while to come if it plays out that way. Not that this UK govt. or its deluded supporters will care I'm sure!



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,375 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    It's only been brought up on this thread because of a certain poster incessantly perpetuating a Quisling narrative. It's not a good metric for the position of either Ireland or the EU.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,389 ✭✭✭ 54and56


    Of course the options are being considered, wouldn't it be irresponsible not to consider the options, there are only 2, impose a border RoI / NI or have risk assessed checks between RoI and mainland EU until the Brits can be encouraged to grow up and adhere to the agreement they made?

    It's absolutely not clear that the EU won't end up in a trade war with UK, it certainly won't be their first step but it may be where things end up over time.

    You are attributing "soothing tones" to a simple analysis of the options. Even if the EU went full metal jacket and dove straight into a trade war we would still have to decide between an RoI / NI border or risk assessing goods going from RoI to EU until that trade war was won.

    If the UK Govt goes ahead and implements the NIPB the only two questions to be answered will be:-

    1. Do we impose an RoI / NI border or accept risk assessed checks on goods flowing RoI to EU?
    2. How long will the arrangement decided in #1 have to be in place before the Brits re-join the grown ups?

    And "no", AFAIK there are no risk assessments for goods leaving any other EU state for another and perhaps, just perhaps, that would be because no other EU state has a land border with the UK which is subject to a very finely balanced peace agreement which the British decision to Brexit has put at risk?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,885 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    Look, the EU are taking UK Gov through the courts, and preparing further actions to be triggered when it appears to be apposite.

    The EU has big bazookas, and will not hesitate to use them when they have a target in the crosshairs. Air travel, CoL, checks at EU ports, plus others we could only imagine - perhaps huge tariffs on Scotch whiskey to cheer up their old friend Frosty, the NO man.

    Remind me, what happened when Greece took on the EU when they thought that the EU were not giving them enough? Did the EU increase their offer, or did they reduce it?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,375 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    I see the police have wasted no time in shutting down veteran anti-Brexit protester Steve Bray with their new powers and our reduced rights. It's utterly disgraceful and the sort of thing I'd expect in Poland or Hungary.


    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,389 ✭✭✭ 54and56


    @fly_agaric said "The UKs trade agreement will quickly vanish in a puff of smoke once they pass this law and they will get their nasty "No Deal Brexit" but I've always been sceptical that could ever force change if their politicians are set on this course of getting rid of the NI protocol." (Hate not being able to selectively quote in this version of Boards:-()

    For me this NIP row is the logical conclusion of the following:-

    • HoC pass the Benn (surrender) Act tying BoJo's hands and preventing him from going full No Deal Brexit.
    • BoJo (ERG really) decides if it's going to be a no holds barred battle for Brexit they might as well propose the NIP, "Get Brexit Done" and as soon as they have purged the Tory party of non Brexit fundamentalists, won a decent HoC majority and can whip up Unionist opposition to the protocol (never going to be very difficult to achieve) they go all in on unilaterally ripping up the WA in the full knowledge that ultimately the EU may have to terminate the TCA if all other measures to get the NIP back in operational fail.
    • BoJo (the ERG) get their No Deal Brexit and stick two fingers up to the HoC and the Benn (Surrender) Act whilst being able to say that they did in fact get a deal but the nasty old EU took it away from them just because they made a few minor tweaks to the NIP in order to protect the GFA which is so very important to them not because they are proud of the peace agreement but because it's a convenient way to justify being the duplicitous dishonourable people they are.

    I lived and worked in London for 7 years and found most of my English colleagues to be fairly conservative (small c) and trustworthy. It amazes me how quickly a nation which had over centuries earned a reputation for democracy and rule of law etc has completely and utterly trashed that reputation and is becoming more and more isolated and insular.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,034 ✭✭✭ tanko


    A hard border on the island of Ireland isn’t going to happen, Bojo the clown needed to create yet another distraction from the complete and utter mess he’s making of everything he does. The UK is is a very weak negotiating position with the EU, this nonsense won’t change that.

    But but but, just wait another two weeks, something something something……………



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