Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

Aah, would you ever stop with this nonsense. Please think through what you post before typing because it simply won't happen no matter how many times you predict it.

We get it. You dislike the EU. You dream of Ireland being out of it so, like Farage or Johnson, you can say "look at the nasty EU". But it's just a dream - it's all in your head!

Kermit.de.frog

In terms of reaction I think tomorrow the government should summon the British ambassador and preferably expel him and his entourage from this country. At least give a formal demarch of some sort.

I think we still have the freedom to do that without requiring permission from Brussels although I'm not sure, perhaps someone can clarify.

We need to start seeing Britain's behaviour for what it is. Essentially it's an attack on this country's interests to further the ambitions of Tory politicians.

Leroy42

To what end? Do you think the UK would see our action and think they are making a mistake?

Diplomatic talk is the only way to solve this, but unfortunately that requires the UK to come to their senses.

Time is what is needed, and obviously a change of government and a change of attitude from the voters.

It is clear that sloy, very slowly, that change is happening.

salonfire

He argued that the relevant EU regulation referenced in the protocol refers to checks “at the border control post of first arrival in the [European] Union”. While Northern Ireland de facto remains in much of the EU under the protocol, it is not an EU member and Mr Larkin argued that nowhere in law was the UK redefined to exclude Northern Ireland for these purposes, as had been done in other sections of the protocol. If that is so, he argued, then there is no lawful basis for the sanitary and phytosanitary checks on products containing animal or plant material (this doesn’t affect customs or other aspects of the protocol).

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/boris-johnsons-lies-on-the-protocol-are-about-to-blow-up-in-his-face-41743109.html

Has a major screw up in the wording of the Protocol been found that removes the need for checks at all?! Hope the EU aren't put in a position to request re-opening of the NIP!

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119192999#Comment_119192999

In terms of reaction I think tomorrow the government should summon the British ambassador and preferably expel him and his entourage from this country. At least give a formal demarch of some sort.

Surely we should see what exactly the UK government have proposed with their bill. Then we need to see if that legislation is enacted and approved by the HoL. Otherwise we would be taking action without grounds.

Like I said earlier, you really need to think through what you're saying because usually you propose unjust knee jerk reactions which will just make a bad situation worse.

Junkyard Tom

How do Irish people not understand that we'd already be trying to deal with a border had it not been for being in the EU? That said we should be prepared to manage the border, should we need to, in line with EU measures that would target the English economy.

I don't think it would be too difficult to have approved roads for commercial traffic, with unmarked mobile customs patrols stopping commercial vehicles, with severe penalties for meticulous noncompliance - including seizure of goods and vehicles.

Let the economy in the north destroy itself at the end of stressed supply lines through GB. Unionists would then have to fully deal with the consequences of their actions while Nationalists, and others, have the lifeboat of a United Ireland to return to the EU fold.

A United Ireland is the only long term solution to all this English perfidy and Unionist hatred anyway.

fly_agaric

@pixelburp

I agree. I reckon Ireland are being listened to, and are acting as an Honest Broker in the halls of Brussels. I suspect were there no land border, the UK would have been put in the ha'penny place a long time ago.

Yes, have kind of posted before that IMO I think Ireland has done quite enough of it now and this UK govt. don't care what we think and we'll get no credit for begging them to show some sense here + work with the EU on this, or shielding them somewhat from consequences. On the contrary they just laugh at "us" (our govt.) and see weakness perhaps?

I believe if the momentum from other members + from EU commission etc. is there to really take off the gloves trade-wise if they do scrap the NI Protocol, Ireland should be very, very on board with that despite how its going to f-ck NIs economy and cause problems here as well.

breezy1985

My own prediction is that the tiny Irexit crowd like Kermit are gonna be really disappointed if Johnson does pull the NIP (he won't though). Disappointed because not only will the EU not abandon use but will announce a massive wad of cash to pay to beef up the border and back us politically and financially to the hilt as they have always done.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119193450#Comment_119193450

I think the Tory "rebels" will use it as a way to taunt Boris and will block it in parliament as a highly symbolic show of him as a failed leader if he can't get get it through parliament with a 80 MP majority. It's a safe one to block as well because let's be honest here, what MPs (or voters) in Britain mainland cares about NI? Hence a great way to give a middle finger salute to Boris while not really impacting anything your voters care about at the same time (and give you something to tell your voters to show how you stod up to Boris after Partygate). Hence a bit of luck that it happens to be the first major policy item to come up after the vote in a way.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119193085#Comment_119193085

I would be surprised if that were the case. The protocol would have been vetted by many who's jobs it is to ensure these sorts of problems do not occur. Not that it is impossible mind you. I also think the fact it has taken this long to find the loophole makes you think it is clutching at straws by the UK as they could have thrown this at the EU before now.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119192870#Comment_119192870

Do not mistake us not thinking about or commenting about the worst situation for not understanding it. You have rarely engaged with the fact that would the EU force Ireland out of the single market against our will it will crumble the whole project. The reason why you are not taken seriously is that your posts read like a Brexiter in the run up to the election. The big bad EU is going to act against poor Ireland and ignore that we are the EU.

Again, we are fully aware of the risks that the UK breaking the protocol could have for us. But our calculation is that the fragile UK economy will break first during the trade war before we are forced out of the EU against our will or forced to do checks on the border with NI.

This is all ignoring the very important point, the recent election in NI returned a majority of parties in favour of the NIP.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119193851#Comment_119193851

That's a complete misreading of anything I have said.

It won't be a case of the "big bad EU" doing anything to Ireland.

There won't be some grand announcement about our place in the single market.

When the French and Dutch, for example, see the risk of substandard UK or foreign goods (through UK trade deals) coming through Ireland in to their market and ending up in circulation they'll put checks between themselves and us to close that hole over time.

What we need to see this week is a much firmer response from the commission particularly to help persuade Tory rebels to vote against it.

I don't think we'll get that. I think it will be the same old weak statement and there will be nothing on consequences again.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119193951#Comment_119193951

What substandard goods would these be? Specifics and sources please.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119193951#Comment_119193951

Why must we do this dance with you every few months? It's exhausting.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119193951#Comment_119193951

Do you think if Irish govt. are told some physical checks are going to be needed on NI-Ireland trade across the border, they will refuse to do it?

I just don't think so.

Yes, it feels like this whole saga has being going on since the year dot (and maybe you're getting impatient...), but the evil day has not dawned yet.

There's likely a bit of road to run, no matter what UK do next week (barring "black swans" like the open border with NI being implicated in a safety/health scandal elsewhere in the EU or some such).

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119193991#Comment_119193991

All types of goods but particularly agri-food.

Do you believe for one solitary moment the French will be allowing Brazilian beef or US chicken through UK trade deals to circulate freely through a leak in Ireland?

With every deal the British do the worse the situation for Ireland gets.

The government for obvious reasons are reluctant to talk about the risk to the SM of Britain's behaviour and that is part of the reason we see the denial as to the seriousness of the situation here, for example.

The government knows full well about the predicament we are in thanks to the cabal running the UK.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194099#Comment_119194099

So the standard chicken little narrative without a single shred of evidence whatsoever.

There is no leak in Ireland. This is a fantasy you've been baselessly peddling for years.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194258#Comment_119194258

There will be. There already partially is as the British have not even implemented the full range of checks or even provided data on goods they undertook to do.

dublin49

I have sympathy for the position that goods being imported into NI from the UK that are not going any further either in their current formation or as a raw material should not be subjected to checks,the trusted trader facility should be able to eliminate all checks on retail food deliveries,for instance all Supermarket deliveries to Tesco,M&S,Sainburys etc should be without checks.

wexfordman2

I beleive one of the proposals from the eu was around labelling of thise goodsnas being fir NI or gb market only, the the brits kicked that to touch!

Kermit, we do understand the seriousness. But the EU commission trying to warn the UK before a vote would likely just kill the rebel vote against it. Those politicians instead of voting against Boris would be seen to be voting for the EU.

Likewise, expelling an ambassador or some such before the law is actually enacted after going through the House of Lords would be an unnecessary provocation, and would probably harm the chances of a UI solution. Could unionists vote for unification with a country that expels their own country's diplomats?

I think everyone here can understand that Ireland is a dangerous position, but it's 2022 and so far, things are still OK. We don't have a border, NI politics are going in a direction that suits us, the majority don't want the protocol gone, and the British PM is losing his party's support. And the EU hasn't played a hand yet.

Ultimately, the UK are in a position where it cannot check imports. I believe they are delayed till beyond 2023, and I don't think they will ever really be able to do them. This means they can't collect tariffs on this trade either without hurting their supply chains and adding to inflation. If they do apply tariffs successfully, EU countries will trade with each other instead, but the UK doesn't have such an option.

If the EU simply gives notice that the TCA is to be ended, or starts to disapply certain parts of it, the UK will be on the losing end. The focus will be on the Channel, not Northern Ireland or Ireland.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119160673#Comment_119160673

Aside refusing to stick a sticker saying for "NI/UK market only" on goods, the UK keeps playing games with the trusted trader issue by providing lists to the EU of 1 month old companies with no trading history as "trusted traders".

salonfire

Why don't the EU respond in kind to what the UK are doing. Start publicly preparing the ground-work for land Border infastriucture, steps to starting the withdraw from the TCA. Once people see diggers on the ground in places like Strabane/Lifford, the bombs start going off in the UK mainland (probably beginning with warning shots with no loss of life), disruption to UK supply chains, it will further weaken the position of the UK.

Standing idly by has given the UK government and its population the impression the EU is weak and can simply be pushed to one side.

It's too late for the EU to attempt any preventative action, like I mentioned above once the new Bill comes into UK law.

Leroy42

You are assuming that the UK are being rational, or will be.

All the evidence suggests they aren't.

The UK are looking for a fight, in fact they need a fight. Do they worst thing one can do is give it to them.

Remember years ago, no deal was definitely on. Then A16 was definitely going to he triggered (there is a much longer list of things the UK were definitely going to do but didn't) now its this.

Its all nonsense and aimed solely at internals UK politics. Its ironic that the UK continually complains about EU interference in UK but demands that EU fix UK problems.

This is yet another tantrum from the UK, blaming the EU for the disaster of Brexit.

No need for the EU to do anything. Sit back and watch as it argues with itself.

Taking (literal) concrete steps before the UK has implemented anything would just be giving them a stick to beat us with.

They'd be saying we could have done this all along, so the protocol was to interfer in the politics of the UK.

Enzokk

Here is the response plan at the moment from the EU,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1536229829481320449?s=20&t=dlDRLObuYyId1D1Vp91zMw

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1536229831389716480?s=20&t=dlDRLObuYyId1D1Vp91zMw

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1536229833742614528?s=20&t=dlDRLObuYyId1D1Vp91zMw

Basically what you would expect. Wait and see what the the legislation is before commenting in full and seeing what an appropriate response would be. The phone call between Truss and Sefcovic and Coveney would be interesting to try and get advanced notice of what she is planning.

"Why don't the EU take this course of action that I am suggesting would restart the Troubles and lead to a bombing campaign in the UK?"

Salonfire, would you mind explaining why you would post such a thing?

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194596#Comment_119194596

To put manners on the Brits.

Besides, if they continue with their approach, there'll be a hard border at the end of the day anyway. The response to that from Republicans is inevitable, but hopefully not as bloody.

Better get the jump-start on them while it is still possible for them to change course. Once that bill comes into UK law, it won't be reversed.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194522#Comment_119194522

The casualness with which that suggestion uses a restart of the Troubles as a negotiating tactic, makes it hard to treat it as either serious, or credible. Creating instability along the EU's borders serves no purpose and runs counter to its chief mandate. Does also make me presume you live nowhere near Northern Ireland itself, cos I'm confident no resident of either NI or the bordering counties want a return to violence.

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194621#Comment_119194621

I said to put diggers on the ground and start the withdrawal from the TCA. What happens after that is a consequence of the UK's decision to leave the EU and and then tramp on subsequent agreements.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194620#Comment_119194620

I think you're the only poster on this site to have ever suggested restarting the troubles intentionally as a Brexit negotiating tactic. Not something to be proud of.