Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197725#Comment_119197725

The EU response is as weak as predicted. In fact it's even weaker than that.

The Tories couldn't care less about legal action the outcome of which is years a way (and would be ignored anyway).

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197896#Comment_119197896

Indeed.Trump didn't care about a ruling against the USA.

Then when Biden came in he just laugh at it as well. Ironically after saying Trump was damaging America on the international stage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/wto-says-us-tariffs-on-chinese-goods-violated-international-trade-rules.html

Ironically inflation may change Biden mind and he may reduce the tarrifs back to WTO rates.

landofthetree

It will easily get through parliament. The guardian is a comic. Remember this?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive

Anyway by winter the single market will collapse due to the war in the Ukraine. Exports out of many countries will be stopped. It will go on for months or maybe years with food shortages almost certain.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197896#Comment_119197896

There is quite clearly a threat to revoke the trade agreement with the UK, so they'll care when the queues at Dover back up to number 10

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197925#Comment_119197925

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197944#Comment_119197944

So two outlandish claims with no evidence whatsoever and two links that have nothing to do with this thread...

This isn't much of an argument. It's the same tired dance the UK have done countless times, stamp and scream about the protocol, do nothing and repeat.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197944#Comment_119197944

That's a bit grim...Steady on there Vlad Putin! Or come up out of the doomsday bunker filled with baked bean farts and breath some fresh air...

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197896#Comment_119197896

The Tories will care enough once the Foreign Office decrypts the EU’s threat, couched in diplospeak in the penultimate paragraph of its response, to the Cabinet.

Nice TCA you got there, be a shame <etc>

Patser

All of this is pure Political Theatre.

The UK hasn't been getting it's way, so brings in this bill which generates loads of headlines about Boris being tough, and starts another 'We're at war with the EU rhetoric' - but in reality the bill will take months (up to 18 months) to actually come into effect, and be available use. So in reality we're back to the Blazing Saddles anology of the UK holding a gun to its own head, shouting don't make me do it.

In the meantime the Eu have restarted their legal route, that will also take months to reach a conclusion but allows for financial penalties to be applied to the UK - again to set a timer on the UK to actually negotiate something.

So big announcement today that has no immediate impact except to try put pressure on the other side to offer concessions.

Oh and to trash the UK's reputation when it comes to deals, we'll throw tantrums to get what we want.

We seen this with Syriza and Alexis Tsipras in Greece in 2015 - when they threw tantrums, stated they were sovereign, threatened to renege on deals, offered populist answers, even held a referendum. The EU always stayed at the negotiation table, never walked away, offered small compromises but kept a clock ticking on the main points and ignored the theatrics.

Edit: Just to add Andrew Marr of all people, now free of the BBC, nails what I'm saying above below

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1536394278058004480?s=20&t=hEFvv3d-1_kiTbV4hcFgyg

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1536424183391047693

She can't really be this clueless, can she? Suspect this is a jibe designed to get a few giggles from her ERG pals.

fly_agaric

That could be honest (just IMO now of course). Reminds me of this article:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/truss-made-turnips-in-truck-brexit-remark-about-ireland-1.4881846

UK foreign secretary Liz Truss told a US audience three years ago that the impact of a no-deal Brexit on Ireland would only "affect a few farmers with turnips in the back of their trucks," a former UK diplomat said.

If they don't know or are unsure how to pronounce it, people should just say PM.

Anyone else surprised by the tone of some of the Dublin responses? The gloves are really off. Have FF and FG realized that Johnson has sold them down the river?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198525#Comment_119198525

I don't think you understand the meaning of the term "sold them down the river"

Leroy42

Sold them down the river? Ireland have played this very well from Day 1. We were never in control of any of this, but did a great job in getting Ireland front and centre from the start. Todays announcement proves jut how important that was and how much the EU have stood by us.

UK are doing this despite the agreement and despite the possible ramifications from the EU. Can you imagine if all they had to worry about was Ireland on its won? We would have been completely wiped out by the UK.

If there was any doubt as to the requirement to be part of the EU, todays actions by the UK should put it to bed.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198525#Comment_119198525

What did FF and FG buy from Johnson?

Patser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198419#Comment_119198419

A fuller part of the interview makes it all look even worse, she never looks confident at all about what she's saying, blinking frantically, stuttering. Absolutely no conviction in the message she's trying to give. Before the Tea Sock finalé

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1536391568428515328?s=20&t=vunWeJWAyUDn4uRMMuTwGA

fash

For me 2 items that were missed by the EU in the WA/TCA were:

1. The NI vote on the protocol in 2024 or 3 years after the UK has implemented the full GB & NI brexit rules, whichever is later.

(The justification for that position would be that you need a bedding in time & smooth operation prior to a vote plus the UK had no intentions on delaying anything they committed to - right?)

2. A mechanism for readily quantifying/approximating damages in case of breach. Whenever UK breached TCA/WA, you just start the meter running, wait for the UK to finish its game playing and present the bill before discussions restart.

murphaph

They probably call him the tea sock in private and chortle like Eton schoolboys. This just slipped out. Embarrassing for them.

Headshot

Why the **** am I see a GB News Editor on The Tonight Show talking about this protocol

why the **** are we even giving these guys a voice on Tv

storker

Johnson has1/3 of his parliamentary party gunning for him. Partygate hasn't left the national consciousness despite his best efforts. The UK economy is so obviously tanking that even the flag-shagging Mail and Express are starting to notice, and no-one is buying the "it's Covid" narrative. The has an up-coming by-election where he is so desperate to avoid the anticipated electoral spanking that he sent Moggy oop north to rally some votes, which will surely drive even more voters into the welcoming arms of Labour and the Lib Dems.

Johnson needs a war to distract the plebs. Ukraine v Putin hasn't done the trick, so he's falling back on that old English principle that you'll never lose votes by sticking it to Johnny Foreigner. He's probably hoping that the EU will indeed invoke tough punitive measures, all the better to rally the "Who Won the War Anyway" brigade.

This is like Ingsoc and the never-ending war against Eastasia/Eurasia; gotta have that bogeyman.

Shelga

Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Priti Patel, dimwit Suella Braverman and the rest of that pathetic cabinet just disgust me. I am so sick of hearing almost every single day for the last 6 years, but in particular since the GE of 2019, how they are intent on wrecking peace on our island to maintain power at any cost. What gets me is that they’re not even evil people who are also visionary and strategic; they’re not very bright, have no great ideas for their country, and care about staying in power no matter what.

That Suella Braverman is the AG, and Priti Patel is the Home Secretary, is just astonishingly embarrassing for the UK as a nation.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198561#Comment_119198561

Lets see: a quick check (I’m not too proud to admit I can be wrong) tells me “a profound betrayal” is the meaning.

So the next step is to see how BJ did that. Cast your mind back to Varadkar meeting BJ at Liverpool. HoC in complete logjam. Tories split. All sorts of possibilities in the air. What do the ERG and BJ need: an election to get a majority. Varadkar does the deal, believing BJ will honour it. Key moment.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-barnier-liverpool-idUSKBN1WW1FB

What followed, from Wikipedia: “All three attempts to call an election failed to gain support: Parliament insisted that Johnson "take a no-deal Brexit off the table first" and secure a negotiated Withdrawal Agreement, expressed in particular by its enactment against his will of the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 (often called the "Benn Act", after Labour MP Hilary Benn, who introduced the bill). After failing to pass a revised deal before the first extension's deadline of 31 October 2019, Johnson agreed to a second extension on negotiations with the EU and finally secured a revised Withdrawal Agreement. Parliament agreed to an election through a motion proposed by the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party on 28 October.”

And there it is. BJ did the deal to secure a general election, use his great gift of convincing lies to win it and set about forcing the EU to accept the Tory version of Brexit or put a border in Ireland. This morning as the penny drops in Dublin we hear the claims of bad faith. Indeed. Sold down the river.

QED.

Leroy42

Haha. So to sell Ireland down the river he signed up to a deal he never wanted to get to a no deal he knows he can't live with.

He also organised covid, Ukraine war and the recent confidence vote I assume, or are they just welcome happenstance?

All the get one over the Irish!

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198813#Comment_119198813

Having them on costs nothing compared to actually commissioning and producing new comedy. This feels like the series where they try to refresh the brexit comedy show but we it's the same gags repeated all over again.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198958#Comment_119198958

Except for the fact that everyone saw this coming the 20 different times he has resorted to this brinkmanship and everyone has been dealing with the nonsense and lies from the Tories going all the way back to the May government.

No one was fooled with cunning and grift and you can't be betrayed by someone you fundamentally don't trust.

Your coded attempts to drive a narrative that Johnson ha shot one over on the Dail is gonna fool no one.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198813#Comment_119198813

Tom Harwood? He's a known spreader of fake news. Was caught out for lying by sharing an image of Sue Gray enjoying a bit of karaoke from 2019 and pretending it was during lockdown.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199107#Comment_119199107

LOL. Except for Varadkar and the govt apparently who gave him his opportunity. On trust. What people see through is the party spin. Sold down the river.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198979#Comment_119198979

Rattled badly now. The last two paragraphs have nothing to do with my post and reality so you can sort that out for yourself.

Your first paragraph of course misses the point, I assume deliberately, in order to make it look like his goal was to get one over the Irish. Who said that? Only you Leroy. Only you. Now you have to look at a “no deal he knows he can’t live with”. That Leroy is an assumption about the goal.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198958#Comment_119198958

That Reuters piece isn't even two paragraphs. The quote from Wikipedia doesn't prove what you say it proves. The only people Johnson has successfully betrayed are the people of the UK. Amazing what one can accomplish with a total lack of scruples, an inept opposition and staunch allies controlling almost all of the media.

The EU wasn't forced to accept anything. I'm not sure if this is Tory revisionism or ignorance. I've lived here for over a decade now. The EU's original offer was for an Irish sea border but Theresa May wouldn't wear it. After having resigned, Johnson readily reneged on his promise of 2018 to the DUP to never implement an Irish sea border to do just that. The EU got what it wanted and the Tories capitulated. Again.

I don't see why account after account keeps piling on with this daft nonsense.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119199124#Comment_119199124

Have you any actual evidence for this?

ArmaniJeanss

Whilst 'sold down the river' is clearly going too far, I would agree with poster Diespies that the events of October 2019 weren't Varadkars finest hour.

October 2019 was a time of total impasse - all options were still on the table including a government of national unity with Corbyn/Swinson/SNP/ChangeUK & various rebel Tories, and a 2nd referendum was also still a possibility.

Leo agreed to a rewording/concession (call it what you will) that Johnson ran with - small changes that became a supposedly great deal and led to a stonking majority via 'Oven Ready Deal' & 'Get Brexit Done'.

In hindsight (though I'm fairly sure I also said it at the time) I think it would have been better to give absolutely nothing to Johnson and to have let the Westminster shenanigans play out. At a time when Johnson was lame-duck, Ireland (inadvertently) chose sides in Westminster and gave him an out.