Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Hotblack Desiato

Death on the Rock was what made Thatcher determined to destroy ITV and she got her way.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/10/rupert-murdoch-press-brexit-eu

It was obvious all along the Brexit emperor had no clothes, now even some of the Murdoch press are having to admit that he may be less than optimally attired.

Something has happened within the last month or so. More people coming out and saying it how it is. I can only see it gathering pace since the summer is still young and there are plenty more queues to be stood in.

pixelburp

Post CoVid summer holidays will be that wake-up call for a great swathe of the UK demographic and the angle that "the EU are punishing us" will only fly so long before people start asking more immediate questions. Anger at the EU, you'd hope, will pivot to anger at the government (and maybe anger at themselves for being hoodwinked). Seasonal tourism in the UK itself might also see itself gutted by all the EU tourists not visiting Cornwal or wherever

Kermit.de.frog

The long predicted (by me) inevitable ripping up of the protocol commences on Monday. That bill will have it's second reading before the end of the month.

And STILL the EU does nothing. We'll get another nonsense statement from the commission next week. All words, no action. More spoofing.

Meanwhile our own country will stay under constant threat, never ending, from Britain.

It won't end because the EU refuses to end it.

Again we will see no consequences for the behaviour of Britain towards this country and, by proxy, international law.

I say it again if we were France or Germany you could count on one hand the number of DAYS the EU would tolerate an existential threat to them from the likes of Britain like we have had to tolerate now since 2018.

It's not good enough and people need to start speaking up.

Igotadose

Uhh, no, your long prediction is the EU throwing Ireland under the bus. That hasn't happened yet. Did you want them to act on threats? Or actions?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119187989#Comment_119187989

That's coming. The end result is us out of the single market which we won't be able to protect. That's the road Britain has us on.

I don't do denial or wishful thinking. That is what will happen unless the EU takes the action it should have taken long before now.

They aren't going to do that so...you'll see again next week we aren't getting protection of the Commission from our neighbour who is deciding our destiny for us.

This is just the reality of the situation.

A little ironic that I'm the one arguing for action to keep us in the SM and the rest of you are doing your best to get us out!

looksee

Its your version of reality. The rest of us have more optimistic realities. Either way the EU can't and won't do anything till there is a real, coherent threat.

ath262

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119187983#Comment_119187983

you think the EU should just jump into some sort of retaliation because the UK might do something in case this bill ever gets though parliament and the Lords and gets passed ?

Lots of hurdles and possible rebellions between now and that ever happening - the proposed bill, if it turned out to be the way it's predicted, will not satisfy the DUP or ERG types, will annoy some others, and it sounds like the House of Lords will probably block it and bounce back to Parliament anyway.. plenty of time for the EU to unfreeze the existing legal action, and when the time comes progressively rewind the provisions of the TCA as per the legal agreements signed

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119188038#Comment_119188038

Your reality. Not the reality. You keep making these bold predictions and each time they don't come to pass you disappear til the next crisis a few months later.

Explain. What SHOULD the EU so, baring in mind the unilateral bill hasn't actually been publicly announced. Should the EU preemptively react to something that doesn't yet exist?

You do realise that if the EU roll over on this, it isn't just the UK that wins here but every vaguely hostile, rival trading bloc will realise the Single Market is weak and only requires brinkmanship. Think about it for 5 seconds instead of trotting out the same talking point. The UK are not in power here, they're flouncing about and I'd be shocked if this supposed bill comes to pass.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119188038#Comment_119188038

You are not arguing to stay in the SM. You are just using it as a way to bash the EU.

I'de save my gloating till after Monday if I were you because there is a good chance nothing will happen and you will again look stupid and naive.

Leroy42

Nothing will happen on Monday. Sure, Truss will stand up and annouce the bill. Cue cheers and whoops from the very same people that cheered and whooped the deal in the 1st place.

Lots of interviews where ministers will lament that the UK has no choice, since the EU won't negotiate, without being asked what changes the UK would accept.

Then nothing will actually happen. You will notice that there is no more talk of Art 16, this is the new battleground. Because despite all the threats, the UK know A16 doesn't solve anything. This gives the appearance of doing something, without having to do anything

ancapailldorcha

It's that time of year again I see.

I'll believe it when I see it. Not before.

Hotblack Desiato

It is daft to think the EU should initiate a trade war with the UK before the UK actually does anything, other than the usual posturing.

McGiver

I believe the bill will be passed in the HoC. But I also believe the HoL will reject it and submit it to the Supreme Court as unconstitutional.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119188038#Comment_119188038

It's a fantasy of an Irish nationalist euroskeptic...

EU has already said that the reaction to any unilateral action by the UK will be "swift and resolute". That's diplomatic language for legal action.

Both the WA and the TCA contain instruments on how to deal with issues like these.

The EU cannot act until the UK acts. That's how it works in law and international diplomacy.

You don't sue your landlord because you think they're thinking to throw you out violating your tenancy agreement - you can sue them only after they actually violate the agreement and throw you out.

It's like some bizarre mindset of an addict.

"If they really loved me, they would tell the pubs to stop serving me. Since they haven't done that, I'm gonna move to another town and drink to my heart's content."

"They told the pubs to stop serving me. Outrageous. What sort of love is that? Time to move."

Kermit wants out of the EU and is using its apparent non-action as a reason to leave it. But if the EU did anything he wants seemingly them to, that would be them deciding Ireland's future and he'd use it as a reason to leave. His posts over the years have always been either angry at EU action or at a lack of EU action.

A disaster fantasist basically.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119189560#Comment_119189560

Schrödinger's EU; if they do nothing they're inept, if they do anything, they're tyrannical.

What is likely is legal action, but that in some ways does play into the hands of Johnson. Here comes the EU, suing us sovereign Brits simply trying to break a little international law. The narrative of the EU "punishing" the UK for leaving can continue, awkward questions about the detail lost in the polemic. As I've said before, this is populism writ large; always be campaigning and you'll never work a day in your life.

Enzokk

I can't believe we are still discussing the Labour stance on Brexit. As long as they are in opposition there is no way they will go anywhere near opening the debate on what they would do. Keep it vague and reiterate that you are not going to take the UK back in. It may not be what people want to hear but I suspect most would be savvy enough to know they have to do this to take away ammunition from Johnson and his culture wars he wants to fight. Johnson and the Tories would like nothing more than Labour mentioning Brexit or the single market, or their wet dream re-join.

I am sure Labour is checking in with their MP's in leave voting areas to gauge the feeling of the voters to see how they should approach the relationship post Brexit with the EU and most likely talking about re-join will be toxic to them, again. Let the LibDems take up the mantle as the re-join party and have their pact with them to keep the Tories out. Once you are in power you can look at what you can do with regards to the future relationship, but their best play would most likely be to keep Brexit out of it and focus on the cost of living crises that people will experience.

My ultimate hope it that electoral reform will finally be on the agenda if Labour can get into power either on their own or as part of a coalition. It really is time to get rid of FPTP and once you have done that you could save the Union as well. If the Scottish voters feel like their voice actually matters instead of what is happening now it could dampen independence talk. But if their representatives keep being belittled by Johnson at PMQ's and ignored it will only hasten their departure from the UK.

Fantasy stuff and navel gazing I know, but the reality of the matter at the moment is with a 80 seat majority for Johnson there is nothing Labour can do at the moment, even if they had the most charismatic and trusted leader ever. So they will need to be clever and not trip themselves up and even then it may not be enough to turn the tide. But staying away from Brexit after 2019 seems a safe bet.

Cody montana

The pro Brexit crowd have gone completely silent.

Comical.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190965#Comment_119190965

In the absence of the self-awareness or contrition, the only alternative is a hard swerve into Sunk Cost. More Brexit, all the brexit. Any negatives are the EU punishing Albion (and subservients friends) from fulfilling its status on the global stage.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119191043#Comment_119191043

I always find Irish Brexiters particularly confusing. We were told that not only must we consider leaving the EU but if that weren't an option (It isn't), then we must give the Brits everything they want with no conditions.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119191284#Comment_119191284

There are 2 types of Irish Brexiters. Some are nationalists who think Ireland can go it alone on the world and have a massively overestimated view of Ireland on the world stage because the likes of the US president pats us on the back from time to time.

The other is the self hating Irish who desperately hold everything up England do as what is wrong with Ireland. Recently to be found down the pub banging on about the Jubilee and telling us all to "get over the 800 years" as if not being a monarchist is proof most of us still haven't.

looksee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119191319#Comment_119191319

Fortunately, either way, there are not too many of them. Very few in fact, and a good few of the ones doing the talking would not actually stir themselves out of the pub if it came to any sort of a vote.

fly_agaric

One ironic thing about Kermit's calls for a much sterner EU response to the UKs constant insults and bullshít (which I'm sympathetic to, even if I don't agree with his posts) is I'd think/speculate Ireland actually holds it back!

I think the EU, and both France and Germany in particular are very fed up with all this and would be fine with moving to a more confrontational stance with the UK in hope of sorting it out once + for all. Ireland however does not want this.

IMO, Irish govt. might be happy to have the EU give the UK govt. some more concessions + just bow down to these bullies for a quiet life + avoid an EU-UK trade war so long as we (and our own EU membership of course) would not be affected.

Of course there's larger things at stake here than just NI and what the Irish govt. want.

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190900#Comment_119190900

The same Kermit who was berating the EU for the few hours it was going to invoke Art 16 over EU-produced Covid vaccines going to the UK as overraction is berating the EU for failing to act to the UK's threat, for the umpteenth time, to breach the NIP.

Maybe we could be wrong though and the UK does really, really, really, really, REALLY, REALLY!!, really, really, really, reeeeaaaaaly, really, REEEEEAAAALLLLLYYYY, really, really, really, really, really!, really, mean it this time around. I won't be putting money on it though.

Kermit.de.frog

None of you understand the seriousness of the situation, from your perspective, or how markets work and are protected.

Ireland is on a trajectory out of the single market. It won't be our choice. It will be the UK's choice. The EU refuses to protect the member state.

Don't come crying on here when the borders go up between Ireland and the continent. You are all in complete denial. It's fascinating.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1535730771285053440/photo/1

Our government aren't in denial, hence the panic. They know the implications of what the British are doing but are reluctant to say it publicly.

kowloon

Is this the throwing Ireland under the bus thing weve been warned about for several years now? What would happen to the EU if they were willing to screw over any smaller member states?

breezy1985

Now lads none of us understand how market work. Only Kermit is that bright.

Well that's me convinced.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119192337#Comment_119192337

I agree. I reckon Ireland are being listened to, and are acting as an Honest Broker in the halls of Brussels. I suspect were there no land border, the UK would have been put in the ha'penny place a long time ago.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119192870#Comment_119192870

And you're obsessed with an outcome that hasn't come true in the 6 years you predicted it. If people were moved, we could dig out all the various occasions you "predicted" seismic changes, only to disappear when it never transpired.

At least be honest about your strike rate. You're a broken clock, you might be right. Eventually. If the single market collapses. That's the problem with eventually though; the sun will burn out, eventually.