Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

cml387

Simon Coveney was very impressive on Today this morning I thought. Got a good opportunity too to make his point, now Humphries is gone.

ancapailldorcha

If the UK is so inept that it can't even implement customs controls, how on earth would it handle the EU suspending the TCA?

Shelga

Anyone see Suella Braverman on QT last night? She makes my blood boil. That they can be so careless with this island is shameful. I have no respect for anyone who refuses to acknowledge the role they themselves have played in this mess.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119054791#Comment_119054791

I really think you need to Calm Down and stop jumping the gun.

BoJo & Co may well initiate legislation to disapply the NIP etc and they'll get all sorts of kudos from ERG / The ex Whiskey Salesman / Farage / Bryson / DUP etc but thankfully the grown up's like the EU and our own Govt won't take the bait and will play the long game much to BoJo & Co's frustration becuase what BoJo & Co really want is perpetual conflict with the EU in order to distract from their own domestic problems.

It'll take a year or more for any such legislation to come into force during which time all sorts of responses from the EU to every possible scenario can be modelled and carefully weighed up for maximum effect plus minimum disruption to RoI if the UK does in fact open an unfettered back door into the EU via NI.

It's always tempting to jump straight in with both barrels as you so constantly demand but it's far far better to serve your response in a fully considered and calm manner.

Have you ever heard of the old bull / young bull joke? Try to be an old bull, you'll have a longer and much more enjoyable life.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119055498#Comment_119055498

Is that a UK TV or Radio programme? Why are Irish govt. ministers as senior as him still bothering with this I wonder?

Seems pointless and a waste of time at this stage. Even talking to UK govt. is a waste of time (was reading Martin has written Boris Johnson some sort of "letter", struck me as slightly pathetic pleading, but I dunno. Maybe will be useful as toilet paper in No. 10?).

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-warns-british-on-protocol-as-eu-uk-relations-plummet-1.4877031

Either they will do this or they won't and the Irish govt. should expect they won't affect that decision or be listened to at all, and UK public opinion (if they care, fed up with "Brexit"?) is almost irrelevant too. IMO they still think they are dealing with UK politics/govt. as it was pre Boris Johnson becoming PM.

cml387

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056101#Comment_119056101

There's every point.

The Today programme on BBC Radio 4 is listened to by all the movers and shakers in Britain. It's the perfect platform to get the Irish viewpoint across to the people that matter.

rameire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056179#Comment_119056179

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00174k6

1hr33 min into the show.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056179#Comment_119056179

Would have agreed about 2 years ago. Not now. The people "who matter" know and it is a dialogue of the deaf, and he (should be) too busy a man to be wasting his time with it.

joeysoap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119055706#Comment_119055706

She was brutal. In fairness 99% of the audience thought soo too.(with one exception). I thought Sebastian Vettel was very straight. Not afraid to use the Brexit word too.

ancapailldorcha

She's on the board of a school near me.

Clearly, she's there as someone pliant who will rubberstamp any and all government shenanigans.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056101#Comment_119056101

When your opponent seems determined to inflict self harm which could have collateral consequences for you you should do two things:-

• Be civilised and try to stop them.

and if that doesn't work

• Put as much distance between you and your opponent as possible.

By Irish Ministers going on R4 and writing letters etc we are being civilised and trying to point out why BoJo & Co should stop but we are also creating clear water between us and them which down the road can be used to our advantage i.e. it removes the ability for the UK to plead after the fact that they weren't forewarned against the consequences which would flow etc etc.

At its most effective politics / diplomacy is a game of Bridge not a wham bam thank you mam game of Snap.

Leroy42

Again, what gets me is that no one seems to asking what the actual plan is here (UK). So they pass legislation to override parts of the NIP, then what?

What timeframe are we talking about? Do they expect the DUP to enter into Stormant now or wait until the legislation is passed? What part of the protocol are they talking about?

What do they expect the EU response will be, what do they think will be the effect on the economy? JRM recently stated that postponed the introduction of border checks would save the business £1bn. What is the expected costs of the increased border checks when this happens?

But there seems to be very little actual discussion. Journalists seem more concerned with whether it is legal or not, as if Johnson et al care about that. That only thing that will stop them is if the consequences are laid out and clearly shown.

ATM, the government are selling this as almost the only possible option. Things are so bad that they are forced to take this action. Without any actual description of what things are bad and the effect of that. Fine the DUP are unhappy, what is the solution, and will everyone be happy with that? And if not, then why are the DUP more important that the exporters/importers or whatever.

schmoo2k

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056645#Comment_119056645

IMO The UK plan is to make enough threats and promises that the DUP will capitulate and form a NI government (crises diverted). But ultimately they will back down and not follow through.

I am not sure why @Kermit.de.frog wants the EU to respond to hot air? There is plenty of time for the EU to respond in a suitable and mature way after the UK has actually done something.

wexfordman2

Senator Boyle from the US just on rte1 news, didn't pull any punches, said that last weeks election shows once again the majority in NI have democraticly spoken in favour of the NIP, and the UK just seem to be recycling the same old process in an effort of distraction.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056598#Comment_119056598

I don't want any wham bams...don't agree with making threats (per kermit) or the EU just stopping talking to the UK now if that is what you are getting at.

I think the UK govt. knows the consequences very well, and doesn't require the EU threatening them (again) in response to their antics.

I suppose I feel we are already at or passed the "put as much distance" stage now. It's clear, has been for a long time IMO the UK badly want to do this for their own reasons (that's why it keeps circling back onto the agenda), there's forces within the Conservative party pushing for it. It's just fear of the EU (and possibly US) reaction that has stayed their hand, not some lingering regard for our welfare here, or care for NI.

If someone is needed to go on the radio in the UK, let a junior minister out of that department do it IMO, and let the EU do most of the talking when it comes to trying to get UK govt. to see sense here.

Sam Russell

Was it not Dragi when he was head of the EC Central Bank who spoke of the 'big bazookas' he would bring into play to defend the EU?

It is not only the EUCB that can deploy big bazookas. If the EU decides to take on the UK to defend the SM, it will not be the EU that hurts.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056551#Comment_119056551

Sebastian Vettel?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056645#Comment_119056645

Again, what gets me is that no one seems to asking what the actual plan is here (UK). So they pass legislation to override parts of the NIP, then what?

The UK has never had a plan for its withdrawal or afterwards

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056645#Comment_119056645

If Brexiters were into questioning what happens next there would be no Brexit

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056794#Comment_119056794

I'm not advocating the EU stop talking to the UK at all or that the EU needs to threaten the UK. This is a civil (in legal terms) matter so the EU just needs to calmly request the UK not to unilaterally breach the international agreement it has entered into whilst at the same time setting out the range of possible remedies and mitigating actions it will consider taking should the proposed breach take place.

A senior Irish (and therefore EU) minister going on the record directly at the (former) bastion of UK media is part and parcel of that "talking" to the UK as exclusively talking to BoJo and his ministers behind closed doors will lead to denial and obfuscation.

This short thread articulates what I'm saying far better than I ever can.

https://twitter.com/BrigidLaffan/status/1525056595155111939?t=kC6RQC6fMhsJouZR9_RmVQ&s=19

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056997#Comment_119056997

And they are being helped in that by a complete lack of questioning. The likes of Frost, JRM, in fact any Tory should be running scarred of going on any interview show for having to answer why they voted the deal through if it carried such massive risks, why they didn't put clear definitions in the deal so that the EU couldn't 'punish' them.

Then ask the questions about the plan.

Instead, they are allowed rattle on about triggering A16, never wanting a sea border etc. Free from almost any serious examination.

salonfire

Why are people hiding behind the "but it is a legal treaty" as if that means anything. Treaties are broken all the time. NATO is about to include Finland dispite originally intended to not go any further east than Germany.

Our own Republic came about by breaking a Treaty signed with the UK.

joeysoap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119056985#Comment_119056985

The F1 driver.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058173#Comment_119058173

I think the question is, what was Vettel doing on Question Time in the first place? He some kind of armchair current affairs wonk?

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058180#Comment_119058180

Yeah, I'm just surprised to hear that Seb was chosen to appear on a UK current affairs discussion. Not to belittle him but I wouldn't be surprised to see Ant & Dec on it soon.

joeysoap

He held his own, something Braverman didn’t. The audience (who appeared to be well up politics) had no time for her( or Boris for that matter) and seemed to know about The Proticol and what it meant. Braverman meanwhile was like a broken record. Vetttel is a German who says it as it is.

ath262

There's some sort of campaign underway by a number of head brexiters - Mogg (or Ress-Mogg or whatever) was on radio or TV this morning moaning about the UK being treated unfairly by the EU, both Truss and Johnson have been making a lot of noise over the last couple of days about overriding the NIP - along the lines of their amazing oven ready deal "not working it has to go", and Frost and I think another a minister were speaking the the US on the subject - looks like Frost had a audience of about 10 or 12... dont know why it was even reported on - is this dead cat stuff to distract from the 50 fines for Downing Street parties, or to keep the UnDUP happy ?

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058162#Comment_119058162

Nobody is hiding behind it, everyone is aware that the UK CAN do whatever it wants.

But a signed agreement gives rights and avenues to deal with breaking the rules. Not to mention the massive reputational damage.

Now, the UK, and currently is, arguing that it has no choice, it is trying to make a moral case since legally they are snookered.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058162#Comment_119058162

More unsubstantiated claptrap.

If you can point to where in the NATO treaty, the organisation can't go beyond Germany please do so.

No treaty with the UK was broken. Feel free to provide a source.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058162#Comment_119058162

“Originally intended” so there nothing that says NATO couldn’t move east then ?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119058252#Comment_119058252

Two by-elections they'll probably lose; claims of 5-10 "red wall" Tories in talks to cross the floor - there's a chance he'll need to keep the DUP on side as that "thumping 80 seat majority" is beginning to evaporate