Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119043998#Comment_119043998

The majority of UK voters do not vote Tory

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119044508#Comment_119044508

Why should Varadkar be concerned about unionist trouble making? There was no solution in our interest that would satisfy the DUP. I don't understand your reasoning.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119046280#Comment_119046280

Correct but (sadly) more UK voters vote Tory than for any other party.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119046534#Comment_119046534

That shouldn't matter, a majority of votes is what should be required to form a government but thanks to FPtP that isnt true in the UK.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119046640#Comment_119046640

I don't disagree but even in the most powerful democracy on the planet winning the popular vote, as Clinton did in 2016 when she got almost 3,000,000 more votes than Trump, doesn't secure election success.

Countries have evolved all kinds of "democratic" systems, many of which are archaic and out of date, none more so than the Brits FPtP system.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119046308#Comment_119046308

Absolutely.

Contrary to convenient painting of Varadkar by SF supporters as some sort of southern unionist, his actual position throughout the whole Brexit farce has been that of an unmovable United Irelander. Much to the frustration of London and rump Unionism.

In truth he and others in his party like Richmond, seem almost gleeful that the British invention of the Protocol has hastened the prospect of Irish unity. Their only concern is that SF not be given a clear run to frame that unity in socialist republicanism, but rather in Euro-centrist progressive liberalism.

Fine Gael could well be the party that deliver Irish unity almost by accident.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119047421#Comment_119047421

Thats because the US also use FPtP mixed with the bizarre electoral college. The US voting system is just as undemocratic as the UKs.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119047612#Comment_119047612

Is there a single democracy which operates on a government only being formed if there is a party (or parties in the case of a coalition) who receive a majority of votes in a single nationwide election?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119043974#Comment_119043974

The late Ian Paisley knew that. Despite the speeches he was reputed to help out constituents who parted their hair on the other side.

The increase in turnout, people actually getting up off their arses to vote, since 2016 is almost as big as the DUP's first preference share. There's no way they can claim a general mandate. 170043 is 92% of 184002

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119045701#Comment_119045701

Ha. It’s not often I say that I agree with Theresa may but it’s nice when she calls out the DUP on their bullshit. I do find it… funny would ne wrong word that the DUP, a party who didn’t support the GFA are now all about it. A bunch of hypocrites. Also, they claim the NIP diminishes Northern Ireland’s place the UK, which is just not true. The only way any change can be made to Northern Ireland’s position in the UK is by themselves though a referendum.

54and56

Sounds like BoJo is once again leading the DUP up the garden path. If this report is correct he's going to throw shapes at introducing legislation to dis-apply the NIP but in a manner which will take up to a year to come into effect.

That will put the DUP into an even tighter corner. If they go into power sharing in the deputy first minister position on the basis of proposed or even initiated but not yet approved legislation they'll be accused of having fallen for another of BoJo's little tricks as there's a good chance the legislation will never actually be enacted, either because it doesn't garner the votes to pass or the UK Govt negotiate a deal in the NIP with the EU and scuttle the legislation as a result and if they refuse to go into power sharing until the legislation is actually enacted or the NIP is somehow scrapped (not going to happen) they'll have run the clock on the 6 month timeframe allowed for parties to negotiate and get Stormont up and running in which case there will be another election and they'll be hammered unmercifully for holding the whole of NI to ransom and preventing the cost of living crisis from being addresses, the NHS waiting lists from being dealt with etc.

Also, the whole 12 month lead time totally suits BoJo as it'll allow him to keep the ERG and similar Brexit nut jobs quiet as he can point to the soon to be enacted legislation before quelle surprise it gets pulled in favour of a negotiated deal or whatever.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524506337752801280

Also of interest should be this letter issued yesterday.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119047842#Comment_119047842

Anyone who uses STV is really as close as you get to that. While it's probably possible, I could be wrong, that a minority of votes could get more seats the mathematics for it I'd guess are incredibly unlikely.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119049186#Comment_119049186

Well, yes and no.

In STV, you vote for who you want and you do not vote for who you do not want. When Mary Robinson won the Presidency, she did not have the most first preferences, but got sufficient transfers to get elected. It is common for commentators to count only the first preferences - not the transfers.

cml387

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119048252#Comment_119048252

There is a very big difference between helping out on bread and butter issues for all your constituents (as all representatives should do I agree), and changing your stated policies because some of your constituents disagree with it.

There are DUP voters in seats represented by Sinn Fein. Does it apply to SF as well?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119049186#Comment_119049186

Without digging in to ancient history here, its happened a few times. FF got an outright majority on 45.2% of the vote in 1969; and the FF-PD 1989-1992 coalition had 49.6% (Albeit their majority was only obtained by nomination of the Ceann Comhairle from opposition - it was 83 v 83!).

2016-2020 Government had low 30s officially but was over 50% with FFs C&S.

Sam Russell

STV is not like FPTP. First pref votes are just the starting point in STV, but is everything with FPTP. You can win a FPTP with just 30 or so percent of the vote, and the more candidates with a prospect of a seat increases your chances if you are one of them.

In STV, you need friends all the way down the card, and seats are sometimes won or lost by a handful of votes. Dick Spring lost his seat in North Kerry by 9 votes. When transfer come into play, you need to keep ahead of your rival, and a few votes might be all it takes. Those few votes might manifest themselves early in the count, and often it matters the order candidates are eliminated because the preferences would be different from yours, and can effect the chances of other candidates. With STV, the tallimen look for just where the votes are coming from as geography matters as does party. Transfers are not absolute certainty as many politicians have a personal vote, a party vote, and a local vote.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119050006#Comment_119050006

Thats the joys of gerrymandering for ya

Much easier to do when you can set your own boundaries and change how many seats are in each constituency

Ireland has a constituencies commission which is supposed to work with the census and independently re-draw up the constituency boundaries periodically so this should be harder to do these days, but the cute hoors will always find a way to massage the results in their favour.

In the UK, they have an independent Boundary commission (of course the word 'independent' here is open to interpretation as often this means they just select a neutral balance from the established political parties, so they can agree to carve up constituencies between each other)

In America, there are no such independent bodies so gerrymandering is absolutely rampant as governors who are partisan often have the final say over the 'redistricting' after each census.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/12/us-congressmen-to-fly-to-london-amid-growing-concern-over-future-of-northern-ireland-protocol

There is a world of trouble coming.

People don't have their eyes open to it yet.

Not for the first time the Tories are going to wreck progress on this island and we'll take the consequences. The only direction here, and it's patently obvious to me, is that we'll more than likely have to exit the single market and the north will be back to violence.

The EU simply refuses to spell out the retaliation that will be needed next week.

Why? My view is they won't do anything. Britain won't be sanctioned.

The hole in the single market will last a few months, no more.

That's my prediction and I expect the usual "the Brits haven't done anything yet". That's about to end right quick.

Hopefully those here who refused to listen will start taking note of the EU's failure to stand up for a member state like it should have.

We needed more than nice words.

Now we are being kicked around by our neighbour under constant never ending threat.

We need to think about where we go from here.

We are going to need to deal with a very serious and delicate situation from Monday most likely.

quartz1

I fear your right

Hurrache

We're not exiting the single market.

And I know you know this as it's constantly pointed out to you for years, we're not a third party to the EU, we are the EU

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119054820#Comment_119054820

It can be pointed out again and again but it won't be our choice.

Ireland will never harden the border with the north.

The EU will not tolerate a hole in it's single market.

There is only one way out and that is for the EU to hit Britain hard with retaliatory sanctions.

There is no sign and no evidence that's going to happen.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119054791#Comment_119054791

That's my prediction and I expect the usual "the Brits haven't done anything yet". That's about to end right quick.

Given that all of your other predictions never came true, then why would someone believe your nonsense now?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119054848#Comment_119054848

My prediction is coming true as I said it would. I never put a timeline on it. It was inevitable it would end this way after the EU failed to toughen it's approach.

My next prediction is our place in the single market.

Oh and that kite has already been flown in recent days in the media.

Mr.Nice Guy

As I understand it, proposals for anti-protocol legislation can't be introduced before the autumn, so it's possible that this is all being done for Johnson to keep his party on side ahead of the Tory party conference in October. He'd rather have 'Boris takes on Brussels' headlines than 'Boris faces new Partygate probe...' If that means causing chaos in NI, it's a price they're willing to pay.

We'll never be rid of that lot toying with us for kicks unless and until we get a border poll.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119054858#Comment_119054858

Well at least you have finally have a bit of a date with the Monday thing. I can guarantee Ireland will leave the single market at some point. I doubt it will be in our lifetimes and more to do with the rise and fall of nations over centuries.

The UK are terrified of actually doing anything. The only deal they managed to get across their own parliament was the EU deal Boris simply went with.

BlitzKrieg

I saw a comment somewhere on twitter or reddit or somewhere claiming that the UK once again holds all the cards because the EU has a huge trade surplus with the UK and if there was a trade war it would hurt the EU more then the UK. Ignoring the usual nonsense of bad maths (the EU trade surplus is larger vs the UK but the % of trade with the UK demands of the EU total trade is smaller then what the trade EU demands of the UK total trade)

But putting that aside, is the UK even capable of a trade war?

Considering the UK has not put in any of the structure to actual process incoming tariffs and has admitted it cant until 2024 or there abouts, if the UK and EU does go to a trade war, does it actually affect the EU? The UK has openly admitted it cant impose tariff checks on the EU when everyone is pretending to be nice to each other.

How the hell is it going to actually impose tariff and trade restrictions when there is an actual trade war without getting a whole bunch of other countries and not to mention goods needed for UK products caught up in it's attempt to get some system in place to impose tariffs on EU goods? They currently cant do any checks and have been just waving everything through, if a trade war started they cannot actually get something together in a matter of weeks.

The EU could possibly impose huge tariffs on the UK and get weeks if not months of the UK struggling to retaliate as it works out the system that it has been unable to get going for the last 3 years.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119054858#Comment_119054858

You seem either naive or unwilling to even examine what the ramifications would be if the EU forced a country out of the single market. Does it even occur what your thought experiment would result in?

Yoi have repeated this prediction for nearly 6 years without once providing hard evidence or even contemplating that maybe. Just maybe, the EU destroying its own structures to solve Brexit mightn't be the smartest ploy.

Glaceon

If push came to shove I think we'd reluctantly go with the hard border rather than leave the single market. Leaving the single market would effectively make us a vassal state of the UK.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119054858#Comment_119054858

How very Rees Mogg of you. So if we leave the single market in 100 years time you were right.

Podge_irl

It takes a special kind of ignorance of reality to see a story about congressional Americans uniting and sending a delegation to the UK to warn them of the ramifications of their actions and view this as Ireland about to be thrown under the bus.

The EU is not having this discussion via the media because they are not as pathetic as the current UK government