Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

https://mobile.twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1525817421680066560

Here's Simon Coveney mentioning "uncertainty on the island of Ireland in terms of single market membership". The very thing I have been saying and some completely dismissing.

That threat is real and the fact it's actually being mentioned should be waking people up.

In the absence of a tough EU response the reality is that Britain will decide whether we are in the single market or not depending on what it chooses to do.

Again we have words from the EU but nothing on consequences which should be spelled out to the British public which can only help create it's own pressure on the Tories.

The British media is now asking about the consequences and so far it's just blank stares.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067698#Comment_119067698

You completely misinterpreted Coveneys comments for your own interpretation. He is not "floating" some plan B in plain sight to self-destruct a pillar of the EU to placate the UK, he's referring to the whole island operating as a single market - which the Protocol is intended to do.

He clearly states " the island of Ireland" in relation to the "single market". When are YOU going to wake up and admit your eagerness to see the EU burn is overriding reality?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067708#Comment_119067708

You keep going around in circles moving goal posts.

Ireland will not be in the single market if there is going to be a hole on our borders.

If you want to believe in a fairytale where such a world exists then more power to you.

And just for clarity, I don't want to see the EU "burn", I want it reformed.

AND I equally don't want our future decided by decisions in London either.

moon2

Ireland will not be in the single market if there is going to be a hole on our borders.

Great! You've already identified a solution to your problem which doesn't require the Republic of Ireland exiting the euro zone! All we need to do is shore up that hole in the border!

As this event would only occur as a result of the UK closing its borders to the Republic, it would probably be a relatively easy job in comparison to Ireland unilaterally deciding to close the border with NI.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067741#Comment_119067741

What goal posts? My position hasn't moved. You, not me, assert that the EU will remove Ireland from the EU Single Market without our consent. Coveney was not referring to that single market, but the potentiality of a hard border between north and South. Simple as. Ergo, the current "single market" between the two countries as defined thanks to the Protocol. The Republic will continue with existence within the EU SM, with the obvious calamity of renewed borders in Ulster. You are the one taking the passing comment and running.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067785#Comment_119067785

No, you're wrong, I have never said the EU will throw Ireland out of the SM.

That is not how it would happen.

It will happen by default. It won't be some grand announcement in Brussels.

It will be increased checks between the continent and Ireland over time until suddenly people will realise that we are less and less part of the SM.

I repeat what I have always said, the Tories will only be forced to stop this behaviour when the consequences are laid out for them.

Next you'll reply the EU is playing 4d chess instead of what I strongly suspect is the reality (particularly in the context of Ukraine) that they have no intention of sanctioning Britain.

If the EU came out this week and laid out the steps they are going to take I'd be happy with that.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog, what do you think the EU should be doing to stop the UK from its current path?

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067849#Comment_119067849

In my view they need to describe what exactly the retaliatory action is going to be so the British public know. This should increase opposition to these tactics in London and help put pressure on the Tory party.

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067911#Comment_119067911

Nah. Sure what tory voters are gonna read EU retaliatory measures. Sure the Tories don't even bother themselves telling the public what benefit they will get out of removing the protocol. They can't as NI is faring better than GB since Brexit. The only thing they could say is they are "levelling down" NI

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067698#Comment_119067698

You're like a child desperately seeking attention at this stage. SC did not say what you're asserting and just because you want to be right on it does not make you right. SC's position has been clear all through the Brezit car crash. So please stop with the paranoid nonsense!

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067911#Comment_119067911

The EU has said all along that they will decide on any action after the event. That way, they are the side who are not making threats - threats which will simply be used as fodder for the anti-EU press.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067821#Comment_119067821

That's some cheek to accuse me of moving the goal-posts, only to do exactly that yourself in relation to the EU SM. I have no special perspective on what kind of chess the EU plays, only that the "evidence" you presented that uh oh, here comes the pain for Ireland amounts to a big-swing interpretation of Coveney's passing aside as somehow indicative of future policy. You are starting at a conclusion and working backwards, from a single video to fit the belief.

Your confidence about the Queen's Speech containing explosive news about the Protocol proved to be utterly false. Maybe it's time to step back and stop seeing threats everywhere.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119068098#Comment_119068098

It's not false. They just didn't put it in the speech. You'll find out this week. Be patient.

According to reports this is what will be contained:

• A green lane for trusted traders transporting goods to Northern Ireland and a red lane for products destined for the Republic of Ireland
• Increasing penalties for infringement and smuggling
• Measures enabling firms to produce goods to UK standards in Northern Ireland
• Transferring oversight from the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to UK courts
• Granting Northern Ireland same VAT cuts as the rest of the UK
• Explicit pledge that the UK will never impose border infrastructure between Northern Ireland and the Republic

That is a repudiation of the treaty, simple as that. It puts our place in the SM at sudden risk.

Note the last pledge - that is a direct threat to us dressed as a British virtue.

We need to see a firm response from the EU.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067911#Comment_119067911

First off, that runs the massive risk of being claimed to be threatening the UK. The media (Express etc) are already pushing the line that the EU is punishing the UK, imagine if the EU actually stood up and laid it out?

Secondly, do you think they haven't already done it behind closed doors? Why do you think Johnson signed the deal in the 1st place, despite constantly claiming a No deal was preferrable to a bad deal.

Any list of consequences cannot deal with the political. And that is all this is. This is all just political posturing by the Tory's, and Johnson, to try to ensure they get re-elected. Just as signing the deal was.

Even before the Ref itself, the consequences of Brexit were pointed out, and ignored as Project Fear. What do you think has changed in the UK mindset that mow they are willing to listen to experts and the EU?

You are attempting to put a rational argument in place for an irrational actor. The UK don't care about facts and outcomes. It is all about feelings and the enemy and hating the EU.

How many times have we heard that the economy isn't everything? That sovreignthy is worth any price. The BoE said recently that Brexit is costing the UK economy 440m per week, well ahead of the supposed 350m they were going to save. And guess what? Nothing. Nobody is even talking about it.

beggars_bush

The constant brinkmanship is just absolutely bonkers with this Tory government

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119067821#Comment_119067821

Now, who's moving the goalposts?

You've spent years trying to get us to believe this pathetic fantasy of yours. I don't care what reports say. I'll believe it when I see it. Ireland is not exiting the single market. Simple as.

road_high

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119068274#Comment_119068274

All for domestic U.K. (English) consumption. The EU has never once blinked or panicked in the face of any of it nor is there any need to. Keep being polite and willing “to talk”. Nothing more

reslfj

That is a repudiation of the treaty, simple as that. It puts our place in the SM at sudden risk.

This and similar statements from Kermit are not of this world. Ireland and its trade will be defended by the EU together with Ireland.

The EU might suspend the TCA, but not initiate the trade war on the island of Ireland. It is relative easy for a shorter period to limit the damage done to the SM by sloppy control across the Irish Sea border.

The trade volume is after all limited across the GB-NI sea border, while is will hit the UK hard if trade is limited or stopped across the Channel.

A few measures in Ireland could e.g. be a 100% ban UK registered lorries on ferries between Ireland and EU26 and/or confiscating lorries used for smuggling - or just lock the lorries up for say 3-6 months. No long haulier can afford and risk that.

The EU will surely focus on limiting trade between England - harbours/airports - and continental EU (EU26).

Lars 😀

PS!

When Trump introduced tariffs on steel and aluminium. the EU put import tariffs on specific US products from the home state of leading republican politicians. The EU dislikes it, but knows where to hit, when diplomacy fails. Harley-Davidson from Wisconsin (then Speaker Paul Ryan) and Kentucky Whiskey (then Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell) and others.

Kermit, go tell your wife what you'll do if she ever cheats on you. Let us know how you get on.

Leroy42

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/eu-will-retaliate-to-any-unilateral-action-on-northern-ireland-protocol-coveney-warns-1.4879091

surelythat's it then. Now that Johnson, the UK government and the public has been warned of the consequences, surely they will heed the warnings and implement the NIP.

ancapailldorcha

All the EU has to do is to suspend parts of the TCA or even the whole thing. This would devastate the UK as Johnson well knows. There's a reason he went begging for an extension.

I'd say he's trying to appear hawkish enough to appease the paleosceptics in his party despite already having given them their sinecures. If he can stunt investment in Northern Ireland, so much the better.

timetogo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119068999#Comment_119068999

This isn't new information.

UK will row back a bit this week then ramp it up again in a couple of weeks when they need another distraction, then row back a week or two later again. Rinse and repeat. That's what they've been doing for the last year.

Some geniuses are claiming the EU is soft in not escalating the rhetoric. In reality the UK can huff and puff all it wants and it makes no difference. It strings the DUP along for a month or two and they fall for it every time. It's only when they actually suspend or unilaterally change the NIP that the EU have to act.

The grandstanding is for the British public and that makes no difference to the EU maybe except for the time wasting our ministers have to do explaining what Brexit means to the UK media.

Hotblack Desiato

..

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119069426#Comment_119069426

How are they going to control a 500 klm border with the EU one the island of Ireland when they can't even conduct checks on EU imports at british ports yet?

Whereas if they actually provoke us we have the resources of the entire EU to run a customs regime. Obviously this will mean that Boris will have played his last hand leaving the UK as a pariah state to the EU until there's a regime change.

Sam Russell

Regime change - is that not a UK speciality?

Mind you, the USA also go into that kind of activity in a big way, but this time the USA is on the other side of this particular spat.

ath262

What exactly was the point of the little trip to Belfast by Boris ?

All he did was annoy most of the parties, no new suggestions other than some vague promise of changes to the DUP - no sign of any instruction to the DUP to stop blocking the assembly

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-northern-ireland-politics-61441753

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119068165#Comment_119068165

You are reaching Qanon levels with your constant excuses.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119071484#Comment_119071484

Like everything Johnson does it was aimed solely at the English Voting audience.

Trying to make it look like he's being "serious about Brexit and giving the EU a bloody nose and showing them who's Boss"

He couldn't care less about the DUP or anybody else in NI.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119071711#Comment_119071711

Oh yeah, it's Bread and Circuses stuff and probably just p'oed SF and Alliance with empty puffery while placating the DUP enough to continue their quixotic regime against the Protocol. The whole problem is palmed off for another few weeks, in that time the North stagnates with no government - which is probably the point.

road_high

So BoJos little visit today achieved zilch- an exercise to placate unionists and pretend he’s “helping”- the main purpose of course was for domestic English consumption to look like he’s standing up to the EU. It’s a well worn pantomime at this stage.