Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039464#Comment_119039464

The EU hardly “bent over backwards” when, under Johnson’s tinkering with the draft to get Brexit done, it was given a better deal than what was on the table heretofore.

There won’t be “sanctions”. Just gradual (slower-faster depending on sector) disengagement across the board whilst the legal case proceeds.

The net effects on the UK compounding in the meantime, will be identical to sanctions.

Most trade experts long agreed: don’t start a trade war with the EU, you won’t like it. Because trade gravity, relative size of economies, logistical choke points, and more.

Or, you know, the UK can just stomp on its appendage yet again. And repeat until it turns blue and falls off. Fat lot of difference that’d make to the EU27, including the RoI indeed: we’ve all seen what EU unity means in practice, in the past couple of months.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039464#Comment_119039464

You must be talking about some alternate realty. It was the UK that begged repeatedly for extensions, the UK who caved to all of the EU's demands and the UK who can't even implement their own border controls.

The EU is fully ready for British shenanigans. It won't be necessary because nobody in England cares one whit about Unionist wailing. From my time here, if Northern Ireland was called "British Ulster", virtually nobody here would have a clue where it is. Johnson is not going to die on this hill.

"The same EU that handed control of their border to a third party entity."

Bravo. It is genuinely impressive how you twisted the UK accepting an internal border into the EU accepting a third party one.

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039465#Comment_119039465

The difference this time is the people of NI have spoken against the Protocol returning more anti-NIP Unionists MLAs than non Unionists. This gives the UK the cover and opportunity to act now.

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039524#Comment_119039524

Of course there won't be sanctions, that's what the UK is counting on. More inaction and dithering by the EU until the gaping hole in their border is essentially ignored until it is forgotten about. Much like today how the EU are blocked from accessing trade data by the UK.

Not only will the EU allow the UK run rings around them, they are exposing the European people to all sorts of knock-off crap that the UK will happily peddle through NI to the EU.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039554#Comment_119039554

Source? I've seen nothing to suggest this in the results.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039570#Comment_119039570

The same empty threat which the protocol was designed to counter and indeed does so. But, yes any day now the UK will run rings around the EU as has been predicted since before the referendum and the deal was done to the EU27's satisfaction. Any day now...

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039360#Comment_119039360

A stopped clock is right twice a day. These under the bus predictions have never been right

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039554#Comment_119039554

They returned more pro protocol MLA than anti protocol MLAs so this is a flat out lie. Sf +sdlp+alliance >DUP, UUP, tuv.

The people of NI very much voted in favour of the Protocol so the UK does not have cover to remove it. Not that they need much cover to break the rules but they don't have a better solution.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039445#Comment_119039445

It may have slipped your attention but the majority of parties elected in NI support the Protocol; there's no hard evidence the UK have the stomach to invoke Article 16 or make any unilateral move to detonate the Protocol, for the benefit of one, fairly inept but angry party claiming it's a problem in the North. Fear of SF is keeping the DUP relevant.

Nor - specific to my original post - is there any evidence the EU are going to turf a member out of its Single Market to placate an adolescent 3rd party, as Kermit has been "predicting" for years now. If you're predisposed towards a hostility against the bloc, the idea of the EU as brooding antagonist against Irish interests is a seductive one, if completely at odds with reality.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039554#Comment_119039554

Firstly some of the people may have voted for parties that were against the protocol - the people of NI overall did not vote against the protocol unless you can give a breakdown of your anti-NIP unionists (I suspect that you're including the wrongly Alliance party here).

Secondly, the London government does not want a trade war with the EU despite the ongoing bravado. At no point has Downing St said to the EU that they intend to unilaterally change the protocol - they have said it to their own press and parliament. It is done purely to distract from the massive hold that the Tories have dug for themselves. The Uk cannot afford a trade war now as they know they would come out of it very badly.

Lastly, if the UK had any intention of taking unilateral action against the protocol, they would already have done so.

Also as we've seen many many times in the past, London does not care about NI except that the unionist parties tend to be useful idiots for whoever is in charge in Westminster to get something they want. Neither the Tories or Johnson have any intention of taking a fall over somewhere like NI.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039570#Comment_119039570

You misunderstood my post. Or maybe not 😏

“Sanctions” are what gets inflicted to the Russian Federation.

Extra trade and non-trade barriers put in place by the EU in respect of the UK on a unilateral repeal of the NIP would not be “sanctions”, but the normal consequence of the UK breaching the TCA, for the EU to protect its single market and consumers from exactly this “knock-off crap” that you mention. Full-fat tariffs, work-to-rule checks, suspended equivalences in the data and finance sectors…there’s a whole catalogue available to the EU to play with, once the UK kills off the TCA.

Such extra trade and non-trade barriers would hurt the UK economically at least as much as “sanctions”, particularly in its current socio-economic situation and outlook. Supersized capital flight and canned FDI (what little of it there still is) overnight, to begin with.

Podge_irl

The reason the UK has not invoked Article 16 or just scrapped the protocol in general has absolutely nothing to do with not having enough political cover or what is viewed as a "valid" reason. It is because it would be hideously detrimental to the UK.

Same reason they still haven't introduced proper checks on their precious borders.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039554#Comment_119039554

Proof that alternate realities do exist. Greetings traveller. Please take some time to read up on the facts of this reality as they appear to be reversed in yours.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039554#Comment_119039554

What? the pro protocol parties of SF - 27, Alliance -17 and SDLP - 8 altogether equals 52 out of 90 seats so in what world are there more anti protocol MLAs now in the assembly?

Leroy42

But NI, as the Brexit vote itself attests, do not get a say. Surely the entire UK must decide on the NIP, not just NI. In that case, surely Scotland can claim that they are against Brexit itself, and so should be excluded. And London, clearly London voted against Brexit, so that get excluded as well. And the entire UK did vote for the deal, through the proxy vote at the GE 2019. That, Johnson has always claimed, is a clear mandate to go ahead with the deal. Are UK politicians really saying that half of NI should now get to decide on the future direction of the whole of the Uk, and that the DUP are actually in charge?

They cannot have it both ways. The wishes of NI, and Scotland, on the Brexit vote were ignored due to the overall majority voting for Brexit. The UK cannot now decide that that NI, or some portion of NI, gets veto power over the rest of the UK.

One issue that really bugs me, years into the deal, is that when politicians talk about Art16, they are never asked what the effect of that would be. What are the benefits (I assume they would answer NI trade with GB) but what are the costs? Would it solve anything? Would it help the whole of the UK? Would it reduce the cost of living crisis? What about the paperwork for exports?

Whether one believes that the EU are willing to offer more (which they did only a year ago only to have it dismissed immediately by Frost) what are the Uk prepared to offer in return? The EU will need to think it is worth it to them to amend a legal agreement. Johnson has never even stated that something would have to be given. IT is the usual rubbish, as it was all the way through, that the UK were just going to demand this and that, and if the EU don't agree then the UK will walk. But they never do, and never can.

As usual throughout the entire Brexit fiasco, it is nothing more than a soundbite, like Get Brexit done. We can all see now what Get Brexit Done actually means, and it is so bad that the UK government, and the guy you actually negotiated the deal, have been telling everyone almost everyday just how awful it is.

The fact is that Art16 will just lead to more negotiations, and based on the previous deal why would anyone think Johnson can do a better job this time?

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119039878#Comment_119039878

This world where the Alliance party are also seeking changes

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/alliance-party-conference-we-want-to-fix-problems-of-ni-protocol-says-stephen-farry-3598806%3famp

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040002#Comment_119040002

You said tearing up the protocol. Seeking changes isn't remotely the same thing as the DUP's puritanical posturing.

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119038168#Comment_119038168

If it comes to it we will plug the hole and stay in the EU. Everyone except members of the Cult of Brexit will know where the blame lies. It's not the EU who has been failing to act in good faith here. To exit the EU and leave ourselves at the mercy of a big bully next door would be insanity.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040002#Comment_119040002

Have you read the article you linked? Let me give you some quotes which blows your assertion out of the water,

"Stephen Farry said Alliance is committed to support measures that reduce the level and impact of the border checks down the Irish Sea.

The North Down MP said his party accepted that “new barriers bring economic friction and undermine some people’s sense of identity”.

In his speech to Alliance’s annual conference, Mr Farry said he wanted “closer alignment between the UK and the EU” as well as seeking “further mitigations, flexibilities and derogations from EU requirements”.

He identified a possible UK-EU veterinary agreement which he said would “minimise the nature and level of sanitary and phytosanitary checks across the Irish Sea”."

What he is proposing here is closer alignment, what the Tories and the DUP want is no alignment. You are being dishonest to try and claim the position of the Alliance Party is the same as the DUP.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040002#Comment_119040002

This has been already pointed out by others, but this is a dishonest attempt to draw equivalence between the Alliance's position towards closer alignment, and the DUP's position of having NO protocol whatsoever & Hard Brexit. The Alliance Party recognises the benefits of better alignment between the UK and EU, especially in a NI context - rather than the rank terror of Loyalists that any Protocol within a bordered Brexit might swing the North closer to the Republic.

The Alliance want to operate within the confines of existing reality, and thus can be counted as part of the majority slice of the Executive that supports the Protocol. Trying to claim anything else is grasping at straws, and denying reality.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040002#Comment_119040002

But Sammy Wilson said live on the BBC that they were actually nationalists just trying to con unionist voters..... so which is it because your original claim was that there were more anti-NIP unionists than non unionists?

It seems to me that unionists like to claim the alliance as being secret nationalists while also trying to claim they are anti NIP pro unionists.

cml387

Even the DUP seem to have moved away from "scrapping the protocol".

Jeffrey Donaldson:

"We need decisive action by the government to address the difficulties created by the protocol."

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040168#Comment_119040168

That sounds like the same thing with alternate phrasing to me. The DUP are not a party who believe in the concept of compromise.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119038168#Comment_119038168

Sky news reporting that to the shock and horror of almost nobody (except KDF it seems) the UK Govt have not included any proposed legislation in Charlie's speech which would rip up the NIP or give powers to ministers to disapply any elements of the NIP.

Also, to my actual shock and horror, Sky just described the removal of some of the proposed business regulation and environmental legislation as being a consequence of the tories "not doing as well as they'd have liked in last weeks local elections". How can any media outlet describe the loss of 500 seats as doing not as well as they'd have liked instead of just calling it for the trouncing that it actually was? 🤐

cml387

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040196#Comment_119040196

Many interpretations could be taken. And the DUP have made compromises in the past (albeit kicking and screaming).

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040301#Comment_119040301

When have the DUP compromised on anything? They didn't compromise on anything as far as I recall save for eventually going into government with Sinn Fein though that was under better leadership.

cml387

Yes they entered gov. with SF . That was a huge compromise. As for leadership, maybe only Ian Paisley could have done it in the same way that only Nixon could have gone to China.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040515#Comment_119040515

I'm struggling to see how representing your constituients voting choices within a parliament is a compromise.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040080#Comment_119040080

I've noticed a number of anti EU pro Tory posters seem to think that this is the Daily Mail and they can just throw lies and misleading headlines at other posters and expect us not to question it or read the full article.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119040515#Comment_119040515

If a party with the word "Democratic" in it's name sees entering parliament on foot of being elected, in any capacity whatsoever, as a huge compromise (relative to what?) then at a minimum they need to revise the name of their party as it is false advertising.

None of that sort of equivocation or messing around with Jim Allister and the Tee Youuu Veee 😜