Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020616#Comment_118020616

But nobody seems to have spotted or cared what would be the constitutional implications for the UK if one, two or three of the Celtic nations vetoed leaving the EU. The assumption by almost everyone was that it would be like 1975 and that the four home nations would vote the same way. We're now seeing that the ignoring of this was a terrible mistake and the referendum and its result may well end up breaking up the UK (and fairly soon too).

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020648#Comment_118020648

You're quite right of course. I confused the 2019 with the 2017 election where the SNP gained fewer votes than Leave.

Apologies.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020702#Comment_118020702

But what is the significance of this? Did the SNP alone campaign for Remain? We know Labour and the LibDems did as well, so not sure why the need to isolate the SNP as the only Remain Party in Scotland when we know there were 2 others as well.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020697#Comment_118020697

The referendum was a nationwide poll and no region in the UK had a veto.

The argument would be that if a region is willing to accept national subsidies then it ought to willingly abide by the outcome of a national poll.There's no taking or leaving.

But as has been pointed out there's nothing to be gained from re-hashing the referendum.

BluePlanet

Honestly i just don't see much point in engaging the bad faith of the British government.

Its a mistake to give them any concessions at all. They'll just pocket them and come back for more.

We aren't dealing with rational actors here.

We know where this is going, regardless of the proposals the EU make we are going to need some degree of hard border on this island.

That border should be as hard as possible and it will drive a UI.

That is the end game.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020804#Comment_118020804

The trope is plucked straight from the Tories in Scotland, no other reason for posting it as it is not relevant at all to Brexit. It must have been an older pick up as it was factually incorrect as well

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020616#Comment_118020616

The majority of Welsh voted remain. The majority of the English colonizing Wales voted Leave. The Welsh certainly do need to come up with a plan for removing the English colonists.

A Dub in Glasgo

Brexit remorse on the increase although not currently helping Labour in their battle against the Tories

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1448637885490552842

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018548#Comment_118018548

If smooth trade was the desire then what was all the hard Brexit business about?

Seriously Rob! Come on.. typing that with a straight face?

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020871#Comment_118020871

England effectively had a veto because what it decided effectively dictated the outcome. The views of the other three regions do not displace what voters in England decide.

mick087

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020966#Comment_118020966

That is an appalling statement of bigotry.

Posts like this should not be allowed.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021150#Comment_118021150

Perhaps flippant, but the Welsh are literally not going to get their country back - and their voting is significantly skewed by the English in their country - who do not necessarily vote in the same way as the Welsh themselves (see brexit for example).

Similarly Tibet effectively no longer exists as it is now so heavily planted with Chinese that the majority is now Chinese (6 million Tibetans, 7.5 million Chinese.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021066#Comment_118021066

Nobody seems to have debated the constitutional implications if the UK was split on Brexit. There was a widespread assumption across politics and the media that the result would be clear cut and that the four home nations would vote to either remain or leave.

This strikes me as extraordinary, especially given that the UK is a union of devolved nations with their own parliaments. We're seeing now just how profound a mistake that lack of debate was - we may well see the United Kingdom break up soon and directly caused by the referendum result.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019345#Comment_118019345

Also from the guardian. The UK government lies about unemployment rate for what reason? Well many I'm sure...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/unemployment-figures-should-be-millions-higher-says-research

3 to 4 times higher .... Seems to reflect the state of hundreds of towns across the England. Don't you think.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021150#Comment_118021150

Don't derail the thread. Use the report function if you have a problem.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021222#Comment_118021222

Well the UK is a union of four 'nations' three of which has a devolved parliaments (or Assemblies) and one has a parliament that controls all the others.

It is not a union of equals. The Westminster House of Commons considers itself to be the devolved assembly for England and has attempted to disallow non-English MPs from voting on purely English matters - unsuccessfully.

They have a constitution that is based on precedence (and if one cannot be found, then they will invent one).

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021451#Comment_118021451

I suppose the point I'm making is that the referendum result hammered home that the UK is the "United Kingdom of England and three much smaller countries who don't matter a jot". Cameron was really playing with fire : not realising the profound constitutional implications for the future of the UK if the result was very close.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021236#Comment_118021236

The Office for National Statistics which produces unemployment figures is totally independent from the UK government and reports directly to Parliament.

This is pretty basic stuff.

Eclectic Econometrics

Good article published in the FT a couple of hours ago covering the EU preparing for a trade war.

Leading EU member states are pressing Brussels to draw up tough retaliatory measures should the UK carry out its threat to suspend trading arrangements for Northern Ireland enshrined in the Brexit deal.

France, Germany and the Netherlands, a traditional UK ally, were the most vocal, supported by Italy and Spain, the diplomats added.

The article then lays out timelines and what retaliation could look like.

Ends with numerous quotes from Maros Sefcovic including this fantasy

"I thought with such a country like the UK we would never have this discussion. Once you sign a deal you respect it.”

They could've paid me a tenner, I would've warned them.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019136#Comment_118019136

You could make a list like that about France, Germany, Italy. This is the English exceptionalism you keep seeing us refer to here. What are you going to do with your nukes? What good is the security council seat?

Blah blah blah we are special blah blah.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021677#Comment_118021677

Sorry to disappoint you but I'm Irish so I'm not really in a position to decide on the use of the UK's nuclear weapons.

But I would say non-use has been their most useful effectiveness.

They act as a deterrence in the same way as the RAF, following a request from Ireland, acts as a deterrence in Irish airspace.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021640#Comment_118021640

Was reported on Tuesday evening that EU officials were absolutely "fuming" when they read Frost's speech. They've kept their counsel in public, but it's said that in private, there is a huge amount of anger with the Brexiteers.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118020871#Comment_118020871

About that ... Most of the regions that voted Leave are subsidised by London which voted Remain.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2020

wexfordman2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118013157#Comment_118013157

The rule of law, the respect of treaties, the upholding of a peace agreement, cohesion in Europe, a rejection of right wing extremism.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010696#Comment_118010696

Who here has suggested that the US will do anything to "endanger its strategic long term military plans/alliances"? Get real.

The US has already told the UK to piss off and forget about a trade deal; it's not happening. I'm old enough to remember when a US trade deal was going to the crowning glory of Brexit, but the vote Leave government has accepted this meekly, as have its lickspittle supporters, and they have now decided that, actually, a US trade deal wasn't such a thing after all.

Likewise, the US has issued a formal diplomatic protest to the UK, complaining that it was inflaming tensions in Ireland, and objecting to the failure to implement the NI protocol. The response from the UK government and its supporters? Outrage? Clutching at pearls, flouncing out of the room, denouncing alliances? Nope, not a meg out of any of them.

Here's the thing; the US can speak as plainly as it likes to the UK about Brexit-related issues without endangering its military and security relationships, because those relationships are much more important to the UK than they are to the US; the UK will never, ever terminate or abandon them. They are valuable to the US, but they are absolutely totemic for the UK (and I think in particular for that sector of opinion in the UK that thinks Brexit is a good idea; they pretty much fetishize the "special relationship"). For that reason the US does not imperil its military and security relationship with the UK by refusing to play along with Brexiter delusions about trade or about NI.

Brexit itself diminishes the diplomatic and strategic value of the UK to the US and, the harder the Brexit, the truer this is. Soft-witted Brexit supporters who think that US attitudes to Brexit are shallow because they are based on sentiment about Irish descent are simply projecting their own Brexity delusions onto the US. Naturally, the US is not going to be supportive of hard Brexit; they would prefer their principal European alliance to be with a country that had good relations with other European powers, and commands some respect and credibility. The UK shredding its treaties, pissing off its neighbours and trashing its own reputation does not enhance its value as an ally to the US. Even if the US did not consider itself as a stakeholder in the Good Friday Agreement - it does see itself that way, and not because of “Irish descent” - it would still be pissed off at this behaviour, which has the effect of devaluing the US’s diplomatic and strategic investment in the UK.  

So, they will make their displeasure clear. And, no, that doesn’t put their military and security relationship at risk; the UK is far too heavily invested in that relationship to consider weakening or ending it in a sulk over the US's failure to back hard Brexit.  

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021640#Comment_118021640

It is heartwarming that our EU friends are standing shoulder to shoulder with us on this. We need to be just as vocal and just as committed to sanctions against the UK should the time come. Anything else would be a slap in the face to our allies.

murphaph

Britain is largely a spent power. Brits can't believe such a thing can happen but it has happened to all previous empires so it's actually not surprising.

It had influence inside the EU but outside it, not so much. As the UK economy crumbles, the trinkets of war like the nuclear deterrent will become unaffordable to maintain.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118021757#Comment_118021757

It’s extraordinarily beneficial to the RAF. to have that buffer of Irish airspace on their western side to intercept attacks long before they reach British Airspace.

Wouldn’t it be a shame if anything happened that arrangement.

pauldla

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022157#Comment_118022157

Indeed. It makes a great deal of sense for the UK and Ireland to cooperate on the matter.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/why-do-british-jets-protect-irish-airspace/

I can't see any similarity with the UK's nuclear deterrance, though.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022043#Comment_118022043

The lack of a US-EU trade deal after several decades of failed negotiations must be a worrying sign for you then - TTIP is now obsolete and there's no sign of another.

The fact is in Europe NATO is far more important to the US than any trade deal and on this the UK is the second-biggest contributor after the US.

Most EU countries in NATO don't even meet the minimum 2% of GDP payments that have been agreed upon.The creation of an EU Army would only weaken the alliance that has kept the peace in Europe for decades.

The Indo-Pacific region is where the US strategic attention is now focused hence the AUKUS nuclear sub and co-operation deal that the EU only heard about when the ink was dry.

Perhaps the US preferred to trust the only European country in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance with its secrets.

Perhaps they're confident of a compromise deal after the EU abandoned 80% of its NI restrictions at the drop of a hat prompting the very reasonable question of why they insisted of them being enforced in the first place risking inflaming tensions in the province.

Perhaps they remember that the EU played virtually no part in the orginal GFA.

Your post shows a total lack of understanding of how international relations work.