Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

The biggest issue is there isn’t really any fuse to in the current configuration of the British political system.

In an Irish context, we have a complicated PR democracy (as do many of our EU neighbours) that tends to generate complex coalitions and if something goes horribly wrong, a government will usually fall, triggering a major rethink. It’s on a healthy knife edge by design.

In the U.K. it’s a simple majority, first past the post, electoral system, which means you can win the only seat in a complex constituency with as little as 30 something percent of the votes cast. That leads to a two-party system, as unless you have an organised single party opposition and effectively a shadow government, you can’t really win seats reliably.

Then because the current government has a comfortable majority, unless there’s some mass resignation of MPs from the Tories (highly unlikely) then this fiasco will just roll on and on until it gets to the end of its term.

Even in the US system the mid term elections and a powerful elected upper house, and very much more complicated power structure of checks and balances, as dysfunctional as they can be, are marginally better than the U.K. system with a large majority. Effectively the U.K. can go into being in a situation where power is wielded by a government almost unchecked.

There isn’t any fuse or circuit breaker. It’ll just roll on until the bitter end, even in the house burns down in the process.

That’s the weakness and that’s where it’s likely to end up in serious problems that will play out in protest rather than electoral politics. France is the other example of that. You get Irish commentary praising their street protest culture, but that just comes from having a legacy of a 7-year executive presidency (shortened a few terms ago) and powerful single party rule. That leads to unresponsive government between elections and that leads to social unrest. Ireland has the polar opposite to that.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015851#Comment_118015851

No offence, but it's hardly worth bothering to say that you disagree unless you're willing and able to say why you disagree. What is wrong with my assessment? Without that detail your disagreement is of little significance.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017031#Comment_118017031

I think maybe you need to make a distinction between what people say about English politicians and what they say about English people. The one does not map onto the other.

Enzokk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017145#Comment_118017145

I don't quite understand the past few pages on here. We were told in 2019 that Brexit was getting done and a great deal was signed, but now that it turns out the same people were lying about it, calling them names is somehow anti-British? Had their been a change of government in the meantime and the new government was trying to rip up the deal the old government signed, hotmail.com may have a point. But the same people lauding their own deal is now telling you how bad it is. Gaslighting in real time, and I think it is imperative to call out those that do this and not to not defend them. Even if it is not in our country, yet, I think it is important because you will get someone who will try the same in this country and it needs to be stopped as its dangerous.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please refrain from posting one-liners and insults. Any more comments like this will be removed.

Leroy42

The EU have dealt with a massive amount of the concerns, they have shown themselves to be pragmatic, flexible and willing to listen.

I think in any normal relationship this would be seen as moving towards reconciliation. But I fear that that is not how the UK will see it.

Many will simply see that Frost threatened the EU and the EU, after claiming that nothing could be done, gave in. That many of the things they said were absolutely necessary to the fundamental protection of the SM are now open to discussion and even being set aside.

From a UK POV, they are in a much better position this morning than they were when they signed the deal in the first place. So why stop there? There is clearly little appetite for a trade war, despite the EU being in the far stronger position. And that is not likely to change.

I stated many months (years?) ago that the UK were going to go for a chipping away approach. Small, hardly noticeable changes that each on their own don't require any pushback but, like a boiled frog, over time the EU finds itself giving more and more.

I don't see any of the movements yesterday as fundamentally changing anything, the overall status of NI, the need for the sea border, is still very much in place. But I also don't see what the EU expect to gain from it? Whether the people of NI accept the chances are not, which seemed to be a big part of Marios speech yesterday, is irrelevant. Johnson, Frost, the Tories, don't care about any of that. What they will see is that constant complaining, constant blaming of the EU, does get results. Whether they are real results, rather than simply headlines is not important. Johnson can sell this as yet another major success over the EU.

Do the EU really expect the UK to accept these and start to become rational and trustworthy partners now? It is more likely that yet another series (ECJ is already lined up as the next battle) of demands will be made. What will the EU do then?

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017899#Comment_118017899

You're starting from the viewpoint that suggests the EU is entirely blameless and totally altruistic in its dealings with Northern Ireland.

It is not.It is just as cynical as the Brits in using every means available to enhance its power and influence.

There's nothing wrong it that - Diplomacy 101 - but it's important not to let emotions blur what is currently happening.

It's a negotiation both sides have beenplanning for a long-time ago and both have been organising their tactics accordingly.

The outcome will be a fudge/compromise that gives both sides face-saving gains.

We'll know what exactly in about three weeks time.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017957#Comment_118017957

This is just yet another "both sides" argument with no specifics or evidence at all. It's not von der Leyen and the EU who proposed and ratified an agreement only to threaten to undo it immediately afterwards.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017981#Comment_118017981

TBF, the EU were about to invoke Article 16 in January until MM intervened. Which, for me, is a good thing as it shows the EU are prepared to take negotiations down to the wire and beyond.

Padraig178

The EU has clearly recognised that the NIP is not working as it should following extensive meetings with business and political leaders in NI.

Cynics might say that NI has been deliberately targeted for excessive checks and regulation enforcement - the most rigorous and heavily enforced of any of the EU's borders - precisely to give the EU this opportunity.

The idea the Brits were not aware of this tactic or the EU didn't know exactly what Frost was up to with his speech in Lisbon is laughable.

As is the look of fear in the eyes of those dreading the EU and UK reaching an amicable compromise which, of course, is what will happen and would be in Ireland's best interests.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017957#Comment_118017957

On what basis are you stating that? We have evidence from the ERG, Cummins and Johnson himself that NI played no active role in the Brexit thinking. That many are quite prepared to cast aside NI if it means Brexit can continue.

The evidence would also seem to suggest that the real issue with NI is not sovereignty at all, but rather that NI cannot be seen to be doing better than GB as that would raise the real example of Brexit being a complete disaster.

Are the EU totally concerned with NI? They have certainly showed more intent on listening, on taking the reality of the situation into account than Brexit ever did. Brexiteers never even considered the impact on NI, and the fact that the majority in NI voted against it was simply ignored.

But let's be real here. The EU IS entirely blameless. This is, was and always will be, 100% the fault of the UK. Any outcome, whatever it is, is entirely down the the decision the UK made to leave the EU. Everything done after that is trying to reduce the impact of that decision.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018055#Comment_118018055

' NI cannot be seen to be doing better than GB as that would raise the real example of Brexit being a complete disaster.'

NI receives £10billion a year in subsidies from the rest of the UK - England essentially.

The idea that it is doing better than GB is nonsense.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018141#Comment_118018141

Those are 2 different arguments. It is doing better in regards to the massive fuel and stock shortages due to Brexit which is what we are all talking about here. You know that too because you are not stupid but you just can't seem to argue in good faith

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015121#Comment_118015121

You know what isn't familiar to that scenario though?

Fuel shortages caused by panic buying.

Milk, poultry and pork being dumped because they've no way of getting it to the factories for production.

Shortages in CO2.

Strangely, these problems only seem to effect mainland Great Britain - even Northern Ireland, part of the UK, seems not to be impacted by these additional issues.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018158#Comment_118018158

There are no massive fuel or stock shortages.

There are temporary shortages due to supply chain issues and the shortage of HGV drivers due to a hold-up in new licences being granted as a result of the pandemic.

This is a global issue and not just confined to the UK.

The fuel queues of a couple of weeks ago were down to panic buying as a result of political manoeuvering by the Road Haulage Association which has seen one major company resign from the RHA.

Europa, a logistics giant based in Kent, said the RHA was ‘substantially responsible’ for chaos at petrol stations in recent weeks. 

Boss Andrew Baxter said he was ‘appalled’ by the tactics used by the RHA including ‘repeated leaking’ of confidential information. 

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018141#Comment_118018141

I suspect you're deliberately misrepresenting the argument. The point is that if NI does not experience shortages while the rest of the UK does, it demonstrates clearly and simply why Brexit is a terrible idea. Nobody is claiming that NI is wealthier than England.

Unionists loathe the NI protocol because it aligns them with Dublin. They had a chance to have a Brexit of their own design but they scuppered it. The Tories loathe it because they need another culture war front now that Brexit is done. Their problem is that the England barely care about the Union as it is and not at all about NI.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018211#Comment_118018211

Global issue, but impacting particularly on the UK because of Brexit and extremely poor governance.

Sam Russell

GBP appears to be strengthening over the last month - moving from 86.5 to 84.5 in that time.

I assume there is expectation of an interest rate rise from the BoE to combat the rise in inflation - forecast to be in double figures by this time next year.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018211#Comment_118018211

I'm pretty sure everyone has read the Tory propaganda statement in the news so no need to regurgitate it.

It's lies though all this global problem and it's plan to see

Padraig178

Interesting thread here from a former trade advisor to the UK government which outlines where the two sides are as they head into negotiations.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1448360269240020996

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018230#Comment_118018230

In a poll from October 2019, 41% of British people would have been upset to see NI leave the UK. Six months later, that percentage had dropped to 24%.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018285#Comment_118018285

That I assume is 41% of the people they could find in the UK who actually knows it exists

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018278#Comment_118018278

Interesting how?

ancapailldorcha

Not sure what I'm supposed to be impressed by. The link was just pasted there. Ruparel is a former SpAd to the DExEU and I'm not seeing anything here that's really insightful.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018052#Comment_118018052

The EU are giving the brits the cover needed to accept that the protocol is going nowhere while simultaneously convincing their voters that they are the winners here.

Judging by your posts, it's working perfectly.

Just like in every single other negotiation that we've had to endure in this long, drawn out saga, the final outcome will be more suitable for the EU than the UK because the big player always gets what it really wants and the small player has to just suck it up.

Hopefully this is finally the end of it, and the rest of us can move on and the brits can get back to rebuilding their country with a little less whining involved.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018438#Comment_118018438

Have you read the detailed EU proposals that you're commenting on ?

I haven't so I'm interested in what someone who is experienced in trade negotiations and who has thinks of them.

Overall he thinks there are plenty of grounds for compromise but some tricky sticking points.

I wish the negotiations well.I suspect some on here are desperate for them to fail.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018292#Comment_118018292

Is it that high?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018501#Comment_118018501

No but the Brexiters have shown themselves time and time again to be untrustworthy for a plethora of reasons, hence the scepticism. You've not really shown why this is impressive.

Can you quote a single post hoping that these negotiations will fail? Just one?

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018052#Comment_118018052

That's obviously rubbish about "excessive checks" being carried out (by the Brits themselves let's not forget!)

No other borders in the EU involved people making half a sandwich on one side of the border, sending it over and then having it finished then sent back again - brexit caused that to happen. Furthermore, the UK - deliberately - delayed implementing a border into GB while fast forwarding the border into NI - & refusing EU offers to have extended grace periods- to make it look like it had particular problems.

Furthermore let's not forget that the Brits are perfectly happy not to comply with lots of the NIP where it suits them - why are they so enthusiastic about implementing these checks in particular?

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018501#Comment_118018501

There are many here who don't seem to realise the protocol is meant to smooth trade between the UK and EU and remove the need for a hard border,not a mechanism to increase Irelands trade with NI at the expense of the rest of the UK.

Very shortsighted to think it's all just for Ireland increasing trade.