Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

pixelburp

"... record number of job vacancies" is not much of a boast when it's caused by shortages of workers. That's the first time I've ever read an absence of candidates in industries as a positive metric. An odd attempt to reframe brexit as a success. Healthy economies talk of "full" employment, not vacancies going begging.

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023683#Comment_118023683

Devil, as always, in the detail that you omit.

It may well have the fastest growth currently but it had the second worst contraction in the period 2019q4 to 2021q2 and it's still 2.1% below pre-Covid levels. That's not net growth, that's trying to get back to where you were before.

Similarly, as you say, it has a lower unemployment rate alongside a record number of job vacancies.

However, that's quite an alarming position to be in for a stable, growing economy because it means you have no way out of this mess, without either shifting the pain around other sectors of your internal economy (no net growth), or trying to entice labour in from outside your market (which by the very nature of the Brexit chosen has effectively put an end to).

On FDI, it has remained attractive because it is a gateway between three of the biggest currencies in the world - Pound, Euro and Dollar.

We don't know post-Covid how well that may continue to be the case, particularly when London's ability to clear Euro currency is set to end next year.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023908#Comment_118023908

So we're agreed the UK economy hasn't collapsed post-Brexit.

There was also no recession, no half a million unemployed and no flight of jobs from the City - all predicted by doomsayers as the inevitable result of a Leave vote and before Brexit had already happened.

Come back in a few years when the economic trauma of Covid has receded and we'll have a clearer idea of the effects of Brexit.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023908#Comment_118023908

How much of that FDI is going to NI, out of interest (and is the historic GB/NI ratio changing much)?

😏

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024065#Comment_118024065

Brexit did not truly happen until the 1st January 2021 when the transition period ended, which happened to be in the peak of the Covid pandemic.

No-one really knows how good or bad Brexit is because Covid has thrown a lot of things up in the air anyway.

One thing's for sure, none of the UK's surrounding neighbours - including it's own nation of Northern Ireland, can't think why though - have seen widespread fuel shortages, are seeing reports of large quantities of milk, poultry, pork, fruit and vegetables being dumped at source because they can't get them produced in time, are reporting difficulties maintaining stocks on shelves, are struggling to maintain refuse collections because the HGV industry are wooing all of the drivers, or warning of potential difficulties in ensuring Christmas staples will be available in the same plentiful supply as the UK has come to known. Maybe the UK mainland GB have just been particularly unlucky with Covid?

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024169#Comment_118024169

Delighted we both agree that the economy hasn't collapsed since Brexit.

And yes there are occasional shortages on shelves, as there are across Europe, but until Covid eases completely we'll not know the real effects of Brexit. Short-term snafus are inevitable when you alter a decades-long way of doing trade but long-term these are all solvable problems.

Anyone who thinks they can accurately predict the long-term effect on the UK economy is a spoofer.Remember these same people were confidently predicting a lorry logjam on the M20 stretching from Dover to the M25.

It.never.happened.

Sam Russell

To have a lorry logjam on the M20, you need HGV drivers which unfortunately ae missing.

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024319#Comment_118024319

Absolutely, I agree, no-one can predict the long-term effect on the UK economy.

Similarly, those who put forward Britain's sudden found record growth, low unemployment and high job vacancies as a sign absolutely nothing is wrong in the UK but in fact that everything is doing much better than everyone else, are just as much spoofing as the "Project Fear!!!!!" people.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024341#Comment_118024341

Ireland has a shortage of 3-4,000 HGV drivers.Ports across the USA are logjammed with goods not moving due to a lack of truckers. Is this the fault of Brexit as well ?

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024374#Comment_118024374

And yet for some odd reason USA or Ireland don't have a minister out stating that the Christmas food shelves will not be empty in general; only for certain products. Why is that? How come what is an issue in general for some odd reason always is significantly worse in the UK than the countries next door no matter what you look at? Bigger loss in GDP during covid, more issues with empty shelves in stores and queues at forecourts? Gas companies going bankrupt left right and center, pigs to be culled because there are no butchers, food rotting in the fields due to no pickers, milk poured down the drain. We could go on; so can you please drop the "But Hillary" style approach to the arguments of Brexit? Yes, there are shortages in the whole world but for some very odd reason the impact in UK is significantly worse...

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023683#Comment_118023683

The UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in August this year - but it is still below pre-pandemic levels. 

Numbers published this morning by the Office for National Statistics revealed that UK gross domestic product remains 0.8 per cent lower than it was before the coronavirus crisis. 

Meanwhile, the ONS said its figures for July have been revised downwards in a move likely to cause alarm in the Treasury.  

The ONS originally said the economy had grown by 0.1 per cent in July but it has now been changed to a 0.1 per cent contraction. 

It is the first time the economy has shrunk since January this year when the winter lockdown wreaked havoc. 

Business chiefs said the data 'paints a picture of a slow-down in the UK's economic recovery' and suggests 'economic headwinds caused by labour shortages and supply chain disruption are beginning to bite'.  (Daily Mail, Wednesday)

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024319#Comment_118024319

The UK has just demanded a renegotiation of the NIP, part of Brexit, because of the effect it was having on trade.

The rest of the agreement has been pushed back, yet again, because of the lack pf preparedness to deal with the issues that will arise.

So, according to Lord Frost the man that negotiated the deal, trade has been massively effected by Brexit in NI.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024319#Comment_118024319

That's not how things work - why would truck drivers go to a week long traffic jam? The obvious thing to do is stay at home. If most truck drivers do the obvious thing - there is no queue - and there wasn't because most drivers did the obvious.

Of course, it meant shortages of food, fuel & supplies in the UK - but obviously nobody cares about them.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024374#Comment_118024374

Seriously just stop. We can all see plainly with our own eyes that Ireland and Europe are not having the empty shelves lack of fuel or panic buying the UK has.

You are fooling or winning over no one with your Tory regurgitated nonsense.

This is getting as bad as when your previous account used to spew out false viewing figures for GBNews thinking we could all be fooled into giving up and letting the channel flourish

A Dub in Glasgo

You see it all over the comments pages and social media from Brexiters when anyone points out the shortages... 'Whatabout the shortages across xxxxx'

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024810#Comment_118024810

What an earth are you on about ? I was involved in the GB news discussion four days ago and have been on Boards for just over a week.I think you may be confused.

On your substantive point there are no widesecale shortages of food or fuel in the UK unless you or any other posters live there and can tell us differently.The queues for fuel was panic buying for a few days - like the Toilet Roll madness in the early days of Covid here - but there have been no reports of any since last week. There are occasional shortages of some items as there are across much of Europe caused by a shortage of HGV drivers which is also happening in Ireland.

www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/lorry-driver-shortage-an-imminent-national-emergency-in-ireland-1.4686883

In the UK they're caused by a mixture of Covid,Brexit and long-term industry issues over pay,conditions and an ageing workforce.They're also early teething problems over the way the UK has changed its trading methods and are not an indication, yet, of long-term Brexit problems. If hauliers paid decent wages and improved conditions rather than rely on cheap foreign labour the problems woudl very quickly go away.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024088#Comment_118024088

Here's you answer.

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/department-for-international-trade-inward-investment-results-2020-to-2021/department-for-international-trade-inward-investment-results-2020-to-2021-online-version

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024923#Comment_118024923

This is being prompted by the Tories themselves. They keep talking about 'global shortages' in nearly every tweet and press release.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024941#Comment_118024941

Glad you have come round to our way of thinking Eskimo/Anne and admitted Brexit is part of the problem for the fuel and stock shortages.

And the pig culling which is only a UK problem

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024973#Comment_118024973

Surprised it isn't on the side of a bus but I assume all the guys who paint the buses have moved back to the EU along with the truck drivers, butchers and hospitality staff the UK is chronically short of

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118024941#Comment_118024941

You are absolutely right Mr Snrub, he is confusing you with someone entirely different.

As regards shortages and in particular those for Christmas, considering the uk gov is offering cabotage rights to EU drivers without reciprocity & brevity papers are explaining how to prep Christmas food now for freezing to avoid Brexit shortages at Christmas & retailers are warning of missing products at Christmas, I personally salute your bravery & sacrifice for giving up on material goods for those other British who would otherwise be deprived.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025054#Comment_118025054

The thing is as I've mentioned a couple of times I'm Irish and I live in Ireland so your concerns are a bit wasted on me.

Did you get anywhere with your mission to find widespread food and fuel shortages in the UK ?

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023680#Comment_118023680

Genuinely interested to know as I haven't been to the UK this year what is the situation regarding food and fuel supplies where you are ?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025102#Comment_118025102

I'm probably a poor source but since you asked...

I live in London but I don't drive so can only pass on second hand anecdotes about fuel. My housemate drives a bin lorry and reckons there's much worse traffic than before. I've heard that the petrol station at my local supermarket has closed due to lack of supply. He also works 19 days per three weeks and seems to be in high demand. TfL services seem to be running as normal though I only use the tube. It's gotten much busier in the past few weeks as well.

WRT food, the only thing I've noticed is a significant reduction in the amount of chicken at the supermarket. I use to like to buy duck breasts with sauce but they're gone. I can still get chicken breasts but only the more expensive cornfed ones (which might be better from an animal welfare point of view). Seems to be slightly less in the way of milk but it's pretty much as it was save for the chicken.

That's about it.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025313#Comment_118025313

Thanks for that.

I remember reading somewhere last week during the fuel panic-buying that supplies were patchy in London and less so elsewhere.Funnily enough every TV live report I saw was from Central London petrol stations and just thought it was easier for the TV crews to report from there rather than schlepp out to the sticks.

I have a relative living on the Isle of Dogs who reports the same thing about the Tube being much busier which I presume means many more people returning to work.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025313#Comment_118025313

Have they sorted the Nandos and other chains that had to close due to lack of food ?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025351#Comment_118025351

Two near me seem to be fine to be honest.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025351#Comment_118025351

Sorry to disappoint you but just tried ordering on nandos.co.uk at various locations and there didn't appear to be any problem.

Anyway, about those food shortages grinding the UK to a halt ... 😉

FrancieBrady

If there is no issues why are the UK government issuing emergency visas across different sectors?

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025475#Comment_118025475

Christmas.The busiest trading time of the year. In the past they could add extra supply using very cheap labour from Eastern Europe operating in poor conditions. Now the UK no longer has that luxury and needs to attract younger drivers with higher pay and better conditions. If I was an HGV driver I'd say that's great news.