Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022043#Comment_118022043

With the protocol rewritten in all but name the UK should snatch the EU's hand off and accept ,not push to remove the ECJ influence as well.

Regarding the US,Biden is viewed as a figure head who has shown weakness over Afghanistan,with the likes of brendan boyle and his rather unpleasant pira supporting brother (link attached about him)having no influence here in the UK.Johnson and co would have probably sat up and listened if the US hadn't dismissed a trade deal out of hand,perhaps stringing the UK along would have been a better strategy.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/kevin-boyle-arrested-20210925.html

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022185#Comment_118022185

What has US UK military cooperation go to do you with Brexit? The only thing Brexit does is make the UK poorer with the result it will have less money to spend on its military.

The protocol isn't going away. How its being implemented is being changed which is ultimately no big deal as long as the objectives of the protocol are met. Anyone who has paid any attention to Brexit will have seen lots of times where the UK has proclaimed victory and then a few weeks/months later start complaining about the agreement that was supposed to be a victory. The protocol and the Brexit deal is a perfect example of that. Compare the the reaction of UK politicians after the deal was signed to more recent statements.

It's been a very consistent trend where the UK government claims victory over a few sound bites and ignores the detail. When reality and the detail hits home their attitude completely changes. This isn't going to be any different.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022185#Comment_118022185

I think it's your posts that betray a limited understanding, Padraig. When I point out that Brexiters have fetishized a US trade deal and have failed to get one, you respond that "the lack of US-EU trade deal must be a worrying sign for you then". This only make sense if you assume that, if Brexiters fetishise a US trade deal, the whole world must.

But that's just silly. Brexiters, remember, fetishized the US trade deal because it was their go-to answer when people pointed out that posturing as "global Britain" while substantially raising barriers to 50% of your international trade was a pretty incoherent position. In the Brexiter viewpoint, the damage done to the UK's international trade by Brexit was going to be more than offset by a network of wonderful trade deals with the rest of the world, of which a US-UK trade deal was to be the cornerstone. r

The EU didn't have the same problem. Far from crippling themselves by unilaterally raising barriers to trade, the EU is the centre of the largest and deepest network of free trade deals that the world has ever seen. So the EU doesn't look to a US trade deal to counter the widespread impression that it is engaged in a delusional project of major self-harm. So, no, we're not worried by the lack of a US-EU trade deal.

The rest of your post is devoted to showing that military and intelligence links with the UK are important to the US. But why bother? I said myself that they were important to the US; why are you labouring the point? My claim was that they were more important to the UK, and in particular to Brexiters, and I stand by that. They are constantly cited by Brexiters (and indeed by you) as proof of the continuing international status and significance of the UK. And, precisely for that reason, they are not jeopardised by the US speaking its mind on other issues. To imagine that the US will moderate its views on Brexit out of fear that the UK will flounce out of NATO or something is to assume that the UK does not value its military and strategic links with the US, and will sacrfice them in a sulk. That's obviously not going to happen.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022200#Comment_118022200

Oddly enough I agree with the latter point. If the hope of a US trade deal operated in the past to put manners on the UK with respect to honouring its commitments in regard to NI, it no longer does. This reduces the US's influence over the UK in that regard. But it doesn't change the US's position; the US will still be seriously, seriously pissed if the UK fails to come to terms with the EU and acts unilaterally to repudiate its obligations.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022243#Comment_118022243

It should also be pointed out that the US has no issue hanging the UK or other countries for that matter if it feels its interests are threatened. The Suez crisis being a fairly notable example where both the UK and France received a stern rebuke from the US and that was in the cold war.

In the context of Brexit all this talk about the US military is meaningless and a distraction.

fash

SNIP. No memes.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022200#Comment_118022200

He's a bit more than a figure-head now in fairness. However much the UK govt. wish otherwise, Trump lost (or had election "stolen" from him for those preferring to invent their own reality) and Biden is the president. The Qanon Party won't be back in the Whitehouse for a while yet so they'll have to put up with "Sleepy Joe" and his negative opinions of them and Brexit. The fact that current UK govt. would prefer some world where Trump and the Republicans won the US election because it would have been better for Brexit should tell you something about them! Mad and quite dangerous people.

J Mysterio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019078#Comment_118019078

Someone else on Twitter pointed out that Lisbon was no accident either, given the associations that place has with critics of the EU (i.e. 'Ireland was asked to vote again, and got it right the second time' etc.).

ancapailldorcha

No insults please. Post deleted.

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022276#Comment_118022276

What exactly the more hawk like posters on this thread think the US is going to do to the UK is a mystery.The EU has proposed significant changes to the protocol which hopefully will be accepted by the UK-why does the US need to try and involve itself?

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118014637#Comment_118014637

Yep. This is essentially Putinism, Orbanism and Kaczinskyism. Exactly that.

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022811#Comment_118022811

Nope. The EU have not changed the protocol, but changed things (as both sides said they could) to find a compromise within the protocol

murphaph

The EU has proposed significant changes to the protocol to help NI but the Tories don't give a fiddlers about NI (or any ordinary people anywhere in the UK) and so this is actually a bad thing for them as they do not want the NIP to succeed. Hence the ECJ demand, which they know is a genuine red line for the EU because a single market (which NI is part of) needs a single court of arbitration. NI cannot be in the SM if the ECJ is removed and then a hard border in Ireland follows. And then the UK gets its arse handed to it on a plate by the EU imposing sanctions (a trade war) and the US possibly even doing the same, but certainly "having words".

A trade war would be damaging for the EU but catastrophic for the UK. The supermarkets there would be empty in 48 hours. They'd look pretty bare in Ireland too but the essentials would be available. Nobody in Ireland will starve, but the UK would need to airlift food (ironically from the EU) as the EU hauliers won't go there to get stuck for days trying to get back out.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022811#Comment_118022811

Well the US will do what its feels in its best interest. If that means ensuring the UK complys with the protocol the UK has agreed in relation to NI so be it. It's not as if the UK would actually retaliate. The US has done far worse to the UK in the past and the UK is still a very reliable partner for the US.

In terms of significant changes to the protocol its important to look at the detail some which Brexiters are not good at doing. The protocol isn't going away. The good analogy would be the speed limit on roads. There are different ways of enforcing speed limits. Changing how you enforce the law doesn't change the law itself.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022857#Comment_118022857

I'm struggling to understand why you think this government doesn't give a ' fiddlers ... about any ordinary people anywhere in the UK '

They're called voters and any government worth its salt cultivates as many of them as possible to retain power.

At which , with the latest published opinion poll giving the Tories a 13% lead over Labour , this goverent seems to be doing a pretty good job.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022939#Comment_118022939

It cultivates them by putting big giant lies on the sides of buses and feeding them misinformation constantly.

They have a 13% lead over Labour but are only at 41% which means the majority of the country doesn't like them and also only 1 in 5 thinks Brexit is going well

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022939#Comment_118022939

How many tory voters do you think there are in NI?

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022939#Comment_118022939

Umm.... perhaps a good job at staying in power. Doing a good job wrt to the populace? Seems not what you read constantly all day about the state of things in the UK. And, really, this isn't the 'aren't the Tories clever' thread. This is the Brexit thread, which of late is 'see? Project Remain underestimated just how soon and how badly it would go south.' When the magic money tree runs out for the UK, it'll really get ugly. What if they can't get butchers to slaughter pigs (which of course required a bunch of money from HMG.) Drive the pigs down the M1 and let them run along in Kew Gardens?

wexfordman2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022811#Comment_118022811

As a protector of the GFA, I am surprised you even asked that question it is so blindingly obvious.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023195#Comment_118023195

Lots.

But understandably they prefer to vote for their own local unionist parties rather than the UK Conservative and Unionist Party.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023357#Comment_118023357

This is a very long way of saying there are pretty much no Tory voters in NI.

the tories don’t even bother with serious candidates, same as labour.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023342#Comment_118023342

Must be a result of studying a white washed history that a lot of Britons don’t understand US/IRE relations and cultural ties.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023342#Comment_118023342

There is no such thing as a protector of the GFA in law or in the agreement itself which wasn't signed by either the United States or the European Union.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023357#Comment_118023357

That rational is as sound as the Silent Majority fallacy. Easy to back ones point up if you just invent Tory voters I suppose

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023357#Comment_118023357

How many mac users are there? Lots they just all use PCs😂.

If they vote for the unionist party they are not tory voters by definition.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118022096#Comment_118022096

I must admit that the speed of the collapse of the British economy post-Brexit has really surprised me. It may well be that EU membership was disguising how dysfunctional a country it was : now that they're going it alone, the dysfunction is there for everyone to see and the whole thing is quickly falling apart.

Has Brexit itself caused all this or the election of a 'Brexit government'? Probably both, if truth be told.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023504#Comment_118023504

What relevance does have to the actually agreed? The reality is that the UK committed to having a soft border in Northern Ireland very very early on in the Brexit process. It was one of the red lines they had to accept be accepted before talks about a trade deal could even begin. The initial intention was to have a backstop which then turned into the current protocol. It might turn into something else in time. However the core issue is that one of the conditions for the UK to get a deal with the EU was a soft border on the Island of Ireland that respected the integrity of the EU single market and customs union. This is the core issue. If the UK wants a trade deal with the EU this is a red line. It's been accepted by UK numerous times a this stage.

Anyone who has paid attention to the negotiations will realise that the EU doesn't care about the details of how the integrity of the EU SM and CU is achieved with a soft border in Ireland as long as they are reasonable and work. People will remember talk about IT systems making it work. The EU has entertained and proposed various different methods of achieving what the UK repeatedly agreed to. The changing of the mechanisms around the protocol is just one of a large number of changes implemented/proposed by the EU.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023580#Comment_118023580

The economy hasn't collapsed at all. What's happening is that, post-transition period, the obvious reasons why project fear was project fact have now manifested themselves and they've done so in a way that people are noticing. The government can try and patch up the leaks all it wants but there will be cases that this won't be possible such as the fact that less than 30 HGV drivers were tempted by the pitiful 3-month visas.

What needs to happen is that the myths that were used to justify Brexit by the disaster capitalists need to wither and die. Sovereignty for Christmas will do that pretty damn effectively IMO. So long as EasyJet still fly at Christmas, I couldn't care less. I think that, what's likely is that it's going to become obvious that many of the people who voted for this mess repeatedly have no interest in filling the jobs they claimed were being stolen by immigrants so we'll see a slew of visas being issued for whatever sector is experiencing shortages at the time. The issue is that the government seem to have assumed that there's a horde of migrants just foaming at the bit to get into this hostile environment.

I think the next few months are where it's going to be made or broken. I don't think the UK is dysfunctional in most respects. The "Union" and the politics absolutely are, as is the BBC but beyond that most everything is ok in my experience.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023580#Comment_118023580

How has the British economy collapsed post-Brexit exactly ?

Speed-wise it was the fastest-growing economy in the second quarter of 2021 of all G20 countries.

It has a lower unemployment rate (4.8%) than the EU average (6.8%)

It currently has record numbers of job vacancies.

It is the second most common destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe with London the most popular city.

Yes, there are huge problems in the economy post-Covid but name me another country where there isn't.

wexfordman2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118023504#Comment_118023504

Did I say there was ?