Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018548#Comment_118018548

No, it's to prevent the erection of a hard border. The British voted to disrupt trade. The EU can't help that but it can stand by Ireland and ensure that it has a secure border with a bad actor.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018548#Comment_118018548

No "smoothing trade" is what the UK wanted to blackmail the EU about. "Give us preferential access to the SM where everyone else is bound by the rules & we can undercut everyone OR we go back to murdering women & children in Northern Ireland"

The EU's position was "no hard border - & UK bears the cost".

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018579#Comment_118018579

No, the British voted to have a different trading relationship with the EU and the rest of the world.

They didn't vote to disrupt trade.

It's an important distinction which will ultimately be lost - once the two sides get over early friction things will settle down.

The EU and UK have agreed on far more than they disagree on.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018141#Comment_118018141

They were impoverished while remaining a part of the UK. Let's see how UK does in terms of economic growth compared to NI when NI has privileged access to the single market

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018620#Comment_118018620

Yes, they did. People here were told that leave meant leaving the single market and customs union. That's the single most disruptive thing one can do in terms of trade in the UK.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018548#Comment_118018548

It is not to "smooth trade between EU/UK". Its purpose is to keep status quo at NI-IE border in the face of Brexit, and also protect the EU single market.

Even if UK has decided their country doesn't really need much (if any) Customs controls between it and its neighbours [suppose it makes sense if ultimate aim is a wholesale deregulation and a race to the bottom for UK economy vs what is next door in the EU], protecting the single market integrity and rules are I think a core interest for the EU.

There is a "side" effect of damaging GB-NI trade + increasing trade between Ireland and NI (due to the new "border" of sorts between GB-NI). That was inevitable and nothing the EU can offer the UK given their "hard Brexit"/maximium divergance from EU stance (bar scrapping the whole thing) can avoid that .

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018648#Comment_118018648

Actually, before the vote, the UK voters were told that leaving the EU did NOT mean leaving the SM or the CU. It was only afterwards that that message changed (after Art 50 was invoked), and a harder and harder Brexit was promoted by the ERG and their fellow travellers did the message change to 'get our sovereignty back' and 'control of our borders'.

If 'Brexit is done', why do they still have a Brexit Secretary? Is this another example of the Schrodinger Brexit?

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018682#Comment_118018682

The point I was making is the shortsighted delight at the detrimental effect on mainland trade with NI to Ireland's advantage. Which isn't what the protocol was meant to do. Brussels can obviously see that which is the reason they are proposing such sweeping changes imo.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018703#Comment_118018703

They were told both as I recall. There's an old compilation of various Brexiters including Hannan and Farage saying we'd be in while David Cameron said we'd be out.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018728#Comment_118018728

What shortsighted delight? Quote please.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018703#Comment_118018703

There is no ' Brexit Secretary ' in the current cabinet.

The role of Secretary Of State For Exiting the European Union was abolished on Jan 31st ,2020.

RobMc59

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018749#Comment_118018749

Are you denying posters here haven't gleefully pointed out the increase in Irish/NI trade at the expense of mainland UK?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018805#Comment_118018805

I asked for a quote. Otherwise, this is an extension of the absurd Brexiter victimhood narrative.

pixelburp

"gleefully?"

What kind of hyperbole is that; perhaps it's simply relief that our immediate neighbours and compatriots of sorts might weather Brexit better than the rest of the UK.

Lord Frost has openly admitted they're opposing the Protocol because a successful NI makes Brexit look bad (and gives Scotland more ammunition for breaking away). There is no honesty in the London perspective, no desire for NIs best interests.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018728#Comment_118018728

I get point about "delight" or schadenfreude about GB-NI trade.

I haven't engaged in that at any point, though I can understand it given the current UK govt. attitudes to Ireland and potential damage fallout of their Brexit project can inflict here.

NI protocol was meant to avoid that harm/disruption (to Ireland/NI) in so far as is possible, and at the moment EU seems to be prioritising that somewhat over the other aspect (Single market protections).

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018805#Comment_118018805

Why is the change in trade a surprise. I can pretty much guarantee you that if you go back through this thread and its previous incarnations you will find people predicting this exact change in trade. This change has been expected by pretty much anyone living on the island and or anyone who actually understood the protocol and how trade works. There is a reason unionists have wanted NI to stay in the same customs union as the rest of the UK. Their opposition isn't exactly new to the various versions of the protocol.

For anyone who wants to see a united Ireland it should be obvious that they would be happy the predicted trade changes have occurred.

Again the predicted changes are not something to be surprised at. But they do highlight the failings of Brexit. Again none of these failings are a surprise and again were widely predicted. But it makes many of the advocates of Brexit look stupid putting things very mildly. Many of them predicted the exact opposite.

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018835#Comment_118018835

If the EU says it cares about the GFA and the consent of the Unionist community why are these measures to ease practical problems only possible now?

The answer, of course, is Frost and his team playing hardball.

I don't have a dog in this fight but it's clear there are more sensible EU heads of state who want to see a good compromise for everyone.

Hence Macron being side-lined over his increasingly bizarre diplomatic rhetoric.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018620#Comment_118018620

The UK electorate didn't vote for anything other than leaving the EU.

It is not for you to speak on their behalf as to what relationship they would have with the EU - whether that meant leaving the SM/CU or how.

In any case, why should we care what they want? The UK wanted a withdrawal agreement with us, we stated our conditions to them - the UK were ecstatic with the offer and accepted it - and the UK electorate supported the agreement insofar as an FPTP system can be said to do so.

They were free to say no, they were free to offer something else - but they didn't because they were happy with the agreement.

listermint

I see the revisionism is in full flight this morning.

Brexit was now not about making trading with the EU more difficult. Ok ...

And the EU have purposefully set this up so that NI has a grand time and that the UK suffers.

Its like the who's who of telegraph analysis.

Strazdas

IMO, it's downright criminal that that total sham of a referendum campaign took place without fully debating the very serious ramifications for Northern Ireland and the GFA if the UK voted to leave.

This is not a minor side issue. As we can see, it is front and centre and has the potential to bring down the entire TCA.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018871#Comment_118018871

How could the EU make changes before it knew what was needed? It took several months for the people on the ground to know what their exact problems even were.

I love the thinking that something in the part of the EU which took months of internal discussion & discussions with NI businesses was changed within a day of Frost's talk.

20silkcut

Increased trade flows on the island of Ireland will be welcomed by most people who live on the island.

I find it bizarre that anyone in the U.K. would be perplexed by this.

The British government stated as far back as 1986 that it has no strategic interest in the island of Ireland and will remain there as long as a majority of people in the North want them to. Surely increased NI/ROI trade brings that day ever closer.

ancapailldorcha

Here's the problem:

There's nothing here about trade, regulation, security, cooperation, the ECJ or anything else. The constant attempts at whitewashing and revisionism do not change this one whit. The Tory disaster capitalists took this and decided to define it later according to their own needs and wants. The public chose to vote them back in twice.

In one way, shortages could be a good thing. English Exceptionalism is incredibly toxic and needs to die. Facts will do this quite nicely but only when they resonate with the public, ie in a tangible manner such as shortages. I naively thought that once Johnson had won in 2019, we'd progress but once covid became a bit less of an issue, they needed to open up a new front in the culture war and Northern Ireland once again became a political pawn.

People here need to see that while the UK is a wealthy European country, that's all that it is. The days of British Prime Ministers addressing the leaders of superpowers as equals are well and truly over. The three regulatory powers are Brussels, Washington and Bejing. London might have joined them had they opted for a regulatory regime more friendly to business, research and innovation but once covid happened, Johnson did Johnson things and the pattern is now set.

fash

https://twitter.com/Suttope/status/1448611140032937987?s=20

I thought the above tweet rather accurate on the "UK playing hardball won concessions" trope

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019023#Comment_118019023

Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world.It is a member of the UN Security Council.It is the second largest funder of NATO after the US with a nuclear deterrent and the vitally important global spy station GCHQ.It is the USA's biggest European trading partner.London is Europe's only major financial centre and the second most important in the world after New York.

You're deluding yourself if you think the UK is ' just ' another wealthy European country.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019078#Comment_118019078

Are they losing the propaganda battle though? I'm seeing a huge amount of British pushback against Johnson and Frost on this (and Frost seems absolutely hated by everyone, even Brexiteers).

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019158#Comment_118019158

I've posted in the British Politics thread today's opinion poll in The Times which gives the Tories a 10 point lead over Labour with Johnson on a higher approval rating than Starmer.Not sure where you have seen this ' pushback ' coming from.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019136#Comment_118019136

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom, which has a $2.83 trillion GDP, is the sixth-largest economy in the world. In terms of GDP purchasing power parity, the UK is in the ninth spot with a GDP (PPP) of The UK is ranked 23rd for GDP per capita which is $42,558. The UK is expected to fall to the seventh-largest economy by 2023 with a GDP of $3.27 trillion. In 2016, the UK was the tenth-largest exporter of goods in the world, exporting goods to 160 countries worldwide. In the 18th century, the United Kingdom was the first country to industrialize.

Linky. So not the biggest in Europe and falling down the list rapidly in importance; I wonder what could be the reason for the fall...

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019136#Comment_118019136

You mean "while in the EU ... 5th biggest... only major financial centre etc"

It was it's position in the EU that changed the fortunes of the "sick man of Europe"

As an economy it's going to be passed very shortly by India & France now that brexit happened - and it will continue to leak banking business as it lost it's special status of access to the single market

Padraig178

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019208#Comment_118019208

Your data is from April 2019.Just before Covid hit ...

lawrencesummers

IF the EU can allow all of these changes now then why didnt they allow them in the first place.

Without even entering into negotiation the EU have met the demands that have been placed on them.

Its in the spirit of cooperation, but the UK will frame it as unnecessary bureaucracy and highlight that the EU can change more.

Ultimately I cant ever see the UK complying or being happy with the rules and unfortunately i can see a physical boarder of some description coming into ireland.