Doubtful. At least with the Falklands, there was a bit of land to fight over.
With NI, the UK already have it and were the UK to go to war with the EU it would be a trade war rather than a military war. The UK wouldn't have a chance then.
But this is the thing. It doesn't have to be a physical war. Or even a trade war. The only thing necessary is to paint the EU as the enemy. This will allow the Tories to stoke the fires about Fortress Britain standing up to and holding their own against the EU much like their forefathers did against the Third Reich in 1940.
Is it a good plan? No. Is it even a viable long term plan? No. But I think this current administration has moved well beyond long term planning at this point. What it will do is buy them a few weeks or a couple of months. That's all this is.
maybe this will help certain posters here understand what the actual situation is and not trust the 'inflexible EU' propaganda :-)
The fact that NI has the "best of both worlds" is a serious problem - as it allows a "compare and contrast" with Brexit GB. There are no upsides to brexit - so a positive comparison is bad.
Furthermore, UK gov needs ongoing destabilization /a narrative of apparent problems to support a narrative that can be used as a platform to renege on the NIP/threaten to renege in order to win concessions elsewhere. If they were quiet for a few years, it is hard to start a narrative that all of a sudden there are problems.
For domestic audiences, as you said it also helps to keep the focus on the EU as the enemy and the association then being that the reason for all of the new problems in brexit Britain is the EU rather than brexit itself.
Congressman Brendan Boyle's press release.
someone put up a montage video of Boris celebrating and pitching this great deal he had won from the EU.
tried reading ni protocol back to front but I ain’t a lawyer
if UK govt goes ahead and triggers article 16 how can EU realistically retaliate while whole thing spends years in courts?
is this what Boris is hoping for, a back door into single market without being an Eu member, needless to say if I was an Irish business I would not be happy about having this competition from uk while also having to pay taxes
EU can make a unilateral proportionate response. Aside from that, fines mount daily - and will be eventually paid.
That’s the thing what is “proportionate” if Boris says we won’t check goods at ports in NI because we like our sausages unmoloested or something silly like that.
what happens if they refuse pay fines as they are already grumbling about paying what they racked up while Eu members
To an extent it is for EU to decide what is proportionate at first instance and a tribunal to agree it disagree at ultimate instance.
If they refuse to pay the fines, then the dispute escalates eventually into a trade war where as resolution, the first step required will be to pay those fines plus interest
EU checks on goods going from GB to Northern Ireland account for 20% of those carried out along its entire external border.
Yet trade from NI to the Republic is less than 0.5% of EU's total.
The idea that the EU is the only aggrieved partner is fanciful but a compromise will eventually be found on this.Neither side wants to emerge from the Covid wormhole straight into a trade war./
I really don't get the relevance of these stats and why they are somehow held up as proof the UK is being unfairly treated. They are meaningless.
There is no other country which is partly in the single market and partly outside it. NI has very significant trade links with GB. It is totally unsurprising to all (except some brexiteers I guess) that this results in a lot of border checks. Nothing here should be new to anyone, but all this fuss the past while coming from the tories / DUP is basically brexit for slow learners.
Actually the EU is being petty and vindictive as it has proved to be on other occasions with countries other than the UK.And it plays straight into Johnson's hands.
As has been shown with hauliers re-directing traffic to Belfast rather than Dublin because of the new bureaucracy business and companies will always find ways around a bottleneck.
BUt as I say wiser heads in the EU will find a compromise to avoid a trade war.No-one wants one.
There is no other country which is partly in the single market and partly outside it.
well there is cyprus i would think
Maybe because it's the fúcking ONLY UK LAND BORDER and the ONLY LAND BORDER WITH the EU!
Petty and vindictive?
The EU is living by an agreement that was negotiated with Boris Johnson, signed off by Boris Johnson, hailed as "great" by Boris Johnson and also campaigned on by Boris Johnson.
That Johnson was either too disingenuous with the consequences of HIS deal, or he was genuinely just too stupid to understand them, is not the fault of Brussels.
The Brits are in denial, a state they've been in for 5 years now.
well I've officially seen the worst history take on the whole NIP
Actually there is clearly-defined capacity in the agreement for either side to withdraw from it if it's perceuived the other side isn't acting in good faith.There always are these opts-outs and caveats in agreements like this. The British are merely signalling a warning that they believe the EU is not acting in good faith.Whether you agree with this or not it's always good in situations like this to try to consider all points of view and not just through the prism of a vote that happened five years ago.
Outside Brit tabloids, how is the EU being "petty & vindictive (and remember here that the relevant checks are being carried out by UK customs officials, the UK refused a longer negotiating period claiming 1 year was sufficient despite covid, and refused to allow the offered longer transition periods for NI - while intentionally unilaterally extending the non enforcement border transition to GB to 12 months, plus deliberately fomented loyalist violence and incited loyalist paramilitaries (Frost's threats to renege on the NIP on 12th July being a particularly nice touch), while directing its courtier media to ignore NI politicians and the good news stories from businesses seeing up in NI - to continue to destabilize and "keep the instability simmering")?
Let's not forget that the UK bans chilled meat imports from Ireland - it is merely that because of their (partly deliberate) failure to implement borders that that is delayed to October.
Your comments regarding hauliers redirecting via Belfast is correct,I live in Birkenhead which is one of the sea routes to Belfast and there has definitely been an increase in wagons at the terminal.
Having said that, I went to Llandudno earlier this week and the A55 had many Irish registered wagons probably on route to Holyhead which is strange considering trade has supposedly dropped off between the UK and Ireland.
Rep. Richard Neale was on Drivetime a moment ago. He's very firm that the Protocol cannot be renegotiated. He adds that part of the problem is that Brexit itself and the Protocol was sold by the Brexit crowd as being "very easy" to implement - they go ahead with it and then starting raising objections left, right and centre (implying that they have been mostly lying at all stages of the process). He likens it to trying to replay a football match a few days after it has ended.
Below RTÉ article had some interesting commentry on the fascinating/disturbing statistic that UK government are throwing out there about the (supposed!) giant number of NI protocol related goods checks.
"To emphasise its complaint, London says SPS controls at Northern Ireland ports represent one-fifth of all checks carried out on the EU's external border..."
"Currently, some 15 EU customs and veterinary staff are on the ground at Northern ports on a rotational basis monitoring the checks and offering guidance. But how extensive is the checking?..."
The most recent official figures were given to the Northern Ireland Assembly Agriculture Committee on 4 March. Denis McMahon, permanent secretary of the North's department of agriculture (DAERA), told MLAs that between 1 January and 28 February this year, 13,629 documentary checks were done on paperwork accompanying food products (92% of which were products of animal origin). During the same period, there were 11,984 identity checks and 666 physical checks.
In comparison, the Port of Rotterdam told RTÉ News that it typically carries out 44,000 physical checks per year, a figure which rose to 59,000 after Brexit took effect. There will be more identity checks than physical checks.
Those Rotterdam checks are carried out by 70 staff operating out of five permanent inspection points for agrifood products, two for fats and oils and one for live animals.
By contrast, the inspection points in the North are still being done from portacabins since the DUP Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots suspended work on the permanent Border Inspection Posts in February."
The set of politicians/spads etc running the UK now have a famous history of eh, being somewhat economical with the truth with statistics to advance their agenda.
It’s gone up between NI and Ireland but is down overall between uk and Ireland as whole. CSO site with real non anecdotal data ain’t hard to find.
I don’t see why any sane business would setup in UK and live under a constant threat of even the current red tape wrapped access without tarrifs could be yanked away depending on what scandal Boris has to cover up that week.
I considered all points of view. There is not much to consider.
The Brits are full of ****. Something they have managed with remarkable consistency. The British public, especially the NI unionist community, were sold a kipper and the panic button is being smashed now that this fact is becoming more and more obvious in the cold light of day.
”unreasonable EU” yada yada yada. They were warned what would happen, it’s now happening, “project fear” turned out to be project bang-on-the-fcuking-money. As I said, this recent fuss is just brexit for slow learners.
P.S. I am a British citizen, born and raised in the UK, in case you think this is some anti-Brit angle I am taking.
Northern Ireland is perfect for the uk to use. It's about the only thing they have that can be used as somewhat of a bargaining chip (even if misguided). The UK government couldn't care less about NI but they know Ireland/EU do. If it wasn't for NI the EU could just completely ignore the UK and leave them shouting at the sidelines.
and leave them shouting at the sidelines.
That seems to me what they are doing. The Protocol doesn't seem to be affecting much physically and there is a sense that almost everyone has moved on.
There is nothing happening that requires us in the EU to do anything but issue statements in response to the latest bristling and posturing. The weekly 'destabilising' protests in Dublin seem to have stayed a figment of Jamie Bryson's imagination as has the veiled threats of violence.
Thunder and roar away UK, nobody seems to care much.
It's almost forgotten that the Brexiteers and the English right wing press were gung ho for a No Deal outcome in autumn 2019. Now they want you to believe a renegotiated Protocol is the thing they favour. They are absolute chancers, making it up as they go along and cannot be trusted.
And now Dominic Cummings has weighed in on the issue during the course of a typically rambling Twitter discussion that initially focused on Covid - according to him, it was a "very low priority issue", that could be handled now when other higher priorities were solved. A very odd take, given the EU made it one of its three negotiating priorities, and the Tory-DUP deal effectively delayed Brexit from occurring for two years!
I'm an Irishman who has lived in the UK for 20 years but the suggestion that the Brits are full of whatever you think they're full of and that panic has set in over the Brexit not being what they were promised is not a country I recognise.
Brexit is barely mentioned these days and Northern Ireland even less so.Apart from a few die-hard online Leavers most people have accepted it and moved on.I don't see much buyer's remorse anywhere,particularly as the warnings of doom,widespread job losses, shortages in the shops,lorry stacks in Kent,disruption to medical supplies etc have all failed to happen.
That's not to say that any or all of those things might not still happen once the Covid pandemic is over but for the moment most people I know at least seem unconcerned about events which seem to exercise the minds of people on the other side of the Irish Sea much more.
And calling them thick or having been sold a kipper is not going to make them change their minds.
It's why Johnson's Tory party remains consistently ahead of Labour in the polls. They understand the electorate far better than Her Majesty's official opposition and have done so for some considerable period of time.Remember the Tories have 164 seats more than Labour. 164!
But Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia....
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