Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119196830#Comment_119196830

Ya but we have known they are dishonest and disrespectful for 6 years now so I don't think today will move the mercury in the Dail or Brussels.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119196786#Comment_119196786

I would suggest more he has no ability of following through rather than intention. I don't doubt he would happily plough on with this if he could get away with it.

Seth Brundle

Oh dear. Apparently the bill is on hold...

https://twitter.com/Eyeswideopen69/status/1536336929838583810

it is probably because 52 of NI's 90 MLAs have said "no"...

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1536342011875184640

Presumably, if the above is true, the Tories will pull yet another stunt to achieve whatever it is that they are trying to achieve. Any guesses what that might be (although I find it strange that they'd postbone the bill to appease a few disgruntled NI politicians given that they were prepared to break international law and piss of the EU and the Americans)?

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197154#Comment_119197154

I would suspect they are unrelated. Potentially they don't have the votes or they simply don't want to be this close to the brink. I can't imagine that anyone in the Tories cared about the elections in NI in any way shape or form.

I am not sure they want Brexit to be finished with either so a few rounds of brinkmanship might suit them. Boris was elected as the Brexit PM to see them through and without Brexit he might have to take the blame for UK issues instead of blaming the EU. However he is also the Brexit PM and so does need to be seen to be pushing Brexit forward so it is a delicate balancing act between doing something and not doing it.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197154#Comment_119197154

Tories don't give a shte what MLAs think. Half of them barely know such a thing exists.

Far more likely that Tory rebels have informed Boris he doesn't have the numbers.

BonnieSituation

Remember when Gove was waxing on about freedom to have even better standards...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/13/fury-as-government-waters-down-post-brexit-food-standards

And now they've wussed out on the NIP. Seems to be a case that the EU and IRL didn't bite this last fortnight so they couldn't be railed against.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119196925#Comment_119196925

He was trained to be a politician in Eton PoliSoc and the Oxford Union where winning the debate is winning the war and you don't actually have to worry about implementing a single thing you debated.

He seems to not realize that the real world works a little different and the debate needs to be followed through.

When's it happening? 11.47pm where I am and watching https://www.parliamentlive.tv/ has nothing so far. Was hoping to catch it live.

Did I miss it, or is it later? Was hoping to catch it live. Or is it not a Parliament vote?

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197154#Comment_119197154

@Kermit.de.frog and this is exactly why we keep repeating that EU will not act until UK actually does something; yet again a nothing burger from Boris and his flailing government. Yet again more hot air, intentions etc. and no action as all the previous times as well. Boris is simply happy to do the talk but he's never happy to do the walk; because that would require some effort and effort is something he simply does not do.

.. Edit: not sure.

yagan

In this episode of the Tory Show the beleaguered chief keeps hitting brick walls. His attack on the deal he once boasted about is backfiring as many brexit MPs don't give a toss about the NIP and they view this attack on his own deal as vindication of their dissatisfaction.

He can feel a hand on his shoulder and hear intimations of "just go" swirling around him. His career driven Brexit junket has led him into the shadow of the pro EU Zalinsk who inhabits the Churchill moment that Boris can only spaff about.

BlitzKrieg

Got a BBC alert that the UK just published the bill. But no details yet

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197584#Comment_119197584

Here: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/58-03/0012/220012.pdf. Main provisions:

This Act— (a) provides that certain specified provision of the Northern Ireland Protocol does not have effect in the United Kingdom; (b) gives Ministers of the Crown powers to provide that other provision of the Northern Ireland Protocol does not have effect in the United Kingdom; (c) provides that enactments, including the Union with Ireland Act 1800 and the Act of Union (Ireland) 1800, are not to be affected by provision of the Northern Ireland Protocol that does not have effect in the United Kingdom; (d) gives Ministers of the Crown powers to make new law in connection with the Northern Ireland Protocol (including where provision of the Protocol does not have effect in the United Kingdom).

BlitzKrieg

you know people give the EU a lot of **** for being a beuracratic nightmare, but when I want to find a treaty or regulation they pass, it might need a bit of digging but it's fairly straight forward there.

I've lived in the UK for 10 years and gov.uk remains a confusing hedge maze of bullsh*t

This is the page for the bill

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-introduces-bill-to-fix-the-northern-ireland-protocol

but no link to the actual bill from what I can see.

there's a link to an explainer and a link to a legal assurance it doesnt break international law, but no actual this is the text of the document we are proposing with the specific changes we intend to make.

Unless (and it's possible) I am completely blind.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197584#Comment_119197584

Here: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/58-03/0012/220012.pdf. I found this link off of the bbc site.

  

Igotadose

So, my expectation is a response from the EU tonight saying they're looking at it, and a detailed response in a day or so. My guess is they have prepared one already and were just waiting to refine it once the proposal came from the UK.

Unless they play their cards close and wait for it to be passed, but I don't think they'd wait that long.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1536395981142491137?cxt=HHwWgoCwpaaAsNIqAAAA

Neighbours from hell. Utter contempt shown to the majority of people and businesses in NI, as well as those on this side of the border. Unless and until we get a border poll, they will just continue to mess around with our island for their own selfish ends.We're just a pawn to them.

BlitzKrieg

Just reading a small section and it's basically just outright gutting whole sections

I also might be reading it wrong at one point but it seems the designation of what is a "UK/non EU bound" product is something entirely left in the hands of the UK ministers which I feel is a hell of a lot of red flags coming from a country that prior to leaving the EU got caught being a smuggling den for chinese goods pretending to be british goods.

Remember when Arrticle 16 was apparently a thing.. Bananas to see this in words.

Igotadose

And, I was wrong. EU has a response out already. Guess what - last year's proceedings that were put on hold, will restart and new ones to be launched.

I'm sure there's more to come. Hrm... where's Kermit's bus?

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1536396625773576195/photo/1

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197688#Comment_119197688

Legal action for pushing the protocol before and had been paused when medicines etc. was sorted has been restarted again.

BlitzKrieg

As Steve Analyst points out, the way the UK has worded the bill the EU is actually required by EU law to immediately start legal actions against the UK.

it sounds almost intentional

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1536395997739421696

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197690#Comment_119197690

This act of vandalism from BoJo and Co, regardless of whether it even makes it through to being actual legislation which is very doubtful, will push a lot of non Green/Orange aligned voters in NI towards a stable, responsible and EU based United Ireland when the time does come for a border poll and it may even hasten that day.

Remarkable if it gets through Parliament. What a shltshow.

BlitzKrieg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197779#Comment_119197779

oh but it wont get to parliament. This nugget of an inside source on the guardian's report on it

"Government sources said a vote on the bill would hopefully take place before parliament breaks up for summer recess, but ministers would want to see some progress towards power-sharing returning in Northern Ireland first, which the DUP has been blocking."

Makes it sound that the government will sit on this and blame the DUP for why they wont put it in front of parliament

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197754#Comment_119197754

Wouldn't put it past them. Johnson's legitimacy now hinges on eternal conflict with the EU, to distract from his and his cabinet's ineptitude.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197813#Comment_119197813

I'd disagree slightly over your use of 'legitimacy.' I see it as Johnson's message to the people that can throw him out of office directly (Tory party members) is, "I'll continually stir the s**t viz. the EU in order to keep the red tops on site and maybe enough to keep us in majority in government." Legitimacy is long over given the crimes committed. And eternal conflict with the EU will get old - I think it has already actually, 'it's the economy, stupid' is going to apply if it hasn't already in the last big round of local elections.

But, as someone said, what awful neighbors.

The EU shouldn't back down from reinstating the complaints regarding relaxing of restrictions. Time to start tightening the screws on this evil government.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197725#Comment_119197725

The EU response is as weak as predicted. In fact it's even weaker than that.

The Tories couldn't care less about legal action the outcome of which is years a way (and would be ignored anyway).

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197896#Comment_119197896

Indeed.Trump didn't care about a ruling against the USA.

Then when Biden came in he just laugh at it as well. Ironically after saying Trump was damaging America on the international stage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/wto-says-us-tariffs-on-chinese-goods-violated-international-trade-rules.html

Ironically inflation may change Biden mind and he may reduce the tarrifs back to WTO rates.

landofthetree

It will easily get through parliament. The guardian is a comic. Remember this?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive

Anyway by winter the single market will collapse due to the war in the Ukraine. Exports out of many countries will be stopped. It will go on for months or maybe years with food shortages almost certain.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197896#Comment_119197896

There is quite clearly a threat to revoke the trade agreement with the UK, so they'll care when the queues at Dover back up to number 10

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197925#Comment_119197925

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197944#Comment_119197944

So two outlandish claims with no evidence whatsoever and two links that have nothing to do with this thread...

This isn't much of an argument. It's the same tired dance the UK have done countless times, stamp and scream about the protocol, do nothing and repeat.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197944#Comment_119197944

That's a bit grim...Steady on there Vlad Putin! Or come up out of the doomsday bunker filled with baked bean farts and breath some fresh air...

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119197896#Comment_119197896

The Tories will care enough once the Foreign Office decrypts the EU’s threat, couched in diplospeak in the penultimate paragraph of its response, to the Cabinet.

Nice TCA you got there, be a shame <etc>

Patser

All of this is pure Political Theatre.

The UK hasn't been getting it's way, so brings in this bill which generates loads of headlines about Boris being tough, and starts another 'We're at war with the EU rhetoric' - but in reality the bill will take months (up to 18 months) to actually come into effect, and be available use. So in reality we're back to the Blazing Saddles anology of the UK holding a gun to its own head, shouting don't make me do it.

In the meantime the Eu have restarted their legal route, that will also take months to reach a conclusion but allows for financial penalties to be applied to the UK - again to set a timer on the UK to actually negotiate something.

So big announcement today that has no immediate impact except to try put pressure on the other side to offer concessions.

Oh and to trash the UK's reputation when it comes to deals, we'll throw tantrums to get what we want.

We seen this with Syriza and Alexis Tsipras in Greece in 2015 - when they threw tantrums, stated they were sovereign, threatened to renege on deals, offered populist answers, even held a referendum. The EU always stayed at the negotiation table, never walked away, offered small compromises but kept a clock ticking on the main points and ignored the theatrics.

Edit: Just to add Andrew Marr of all people, now free of the BBC, nails what I'm saying above below

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1536394278058004480?s=20&t=hEFvv3d-1_kiTbV4hcFgyg

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1536424183391047693

She can't really be this clueless, can she? Suspect this is a jibe designed to get a few giggles from her ERG pals.

fly_agaric

That could be honest (just IMO now of course). Reminds me of this article:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/truss-made-turnips-in-truck-brexit-remark-about-ireland-1.4881846

UK foreign secretary Liz Truss told a US audience three years ago that the impact of a no-deal Brexit on Ireland would only "affect a few farmers with turnips in the back of their trucks," a former UK diplomat said.

If they don't know or are unsure how to pronounce it, people should just say PM.

Anyone else surprised by the tone of some of the Dublin responses? The gloves are really off. Have FF and FG realized that Johnson has sold them down the river?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198525#Comment_119198525

I don't think you understand the meaning of the term "sold them down the river"

Leroy42

Sold them down the river? Ireland have played this very well from Day 1. We were never in control of any of this, but did a great job in getting Ireland front and centre from the start. Todays announcement proves jut how important that was and how much the EU have stood by us.

UK are doing this despite the agreement and despite the possible ramifications from the EU. Can you imagine if all they had to worry about was Ireland on its won? We would have been completely wiped out by the UK.

If there was any doubt as to the requirement to be part of the EU, todays actions by the UK should put it to bed.

54and56

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198525#Comment_119198525

What did FF and FG buy from Johnson?

Patser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198419#Comment_119198419

A fuller part of the interview makes it all look even worse, she never looks confident at all about what she's saying, blinking frantically, stuttering. Absolutely no conviction in the message she's trying to give. Before the Tea Sock finalé

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1536391568428515328?s=20&t=vunWeJWAyUDn4uRMMuTwGA

fash

For me 2 items that were missed by the EU in the WA/TCA were:

1. The NI vote on the protocol in 2024 or 3 years after the UK has implemented the full GB & NI brexit rules, whichever is later.

(The justification for that position would be that you need a bedding in time & smooth operation prior to a vote plus the UK had no intentions on delaying anything they committed to - right?)

2. A mechanism for readily quantifying/approximating damages in case of breach. Whenever UK breached TCA/WA, you just start the meter running, wait for the UK to finish its game playing and present the bill before discussions restart.

murphaph

They probably call him the tea sock in private and chortle like Eton schoolboys. This just slipped out. Embarrassing for them.

Headshot

Why the **** am I see a GB News Editor on The Tonight Show talking about this protocol

why the **** are we even giving these guys a voice on Tv

storker

Johnson has1/3 of his parliamentary party gunning for him. Partygate hasn't left the national consciousness despite his best efforts. The UK economy is so obviously tanking that even the flag-shagging Mail and Express are starting to notice, and no-one is buying the "it's Covid" narrative. The has an up-coming by-election where he is so desperate to avoid the anticipated electoral spanking that he sent Moggy oop north to rally some votes, which will surely drive even more voters into the welcoming arms of Labour and the Lib Dems.

Johnson needs a war to distract the plebs. Ukraine v Putin hasn't done the trick, so he's falling back on that old English principle that you'll never lose votes by sticking it to Johnny Foreigner. He's probably hoping that the EU will indeed invoke tough punitive measures, all the better to rally the "Who Won the War Anyway" brigade.

This is like Ingsoc and the never-ending war against Eastasia/Eurasia; gotta have that bogeyman.

Shelga

Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Priti Patel, dimwit Suella Braverman and the rest of that pathetic cabinet just disgust me. I am so sick of hearing almost every single day for the last 6 years, but in particular since the GE of 2019, how they are intent on wrecking peace on our island to maintain power at any cost. What gets me is that they’re not even evil people who are also visionary and strategic; they’re not very bright, have no great ideas for their country, and care about staying in power no matter what.

That Suella Braverman is the AG, and Priti Patel is the Home Secretary, is just astonishingly embarrassing for the UK as a nation.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119198561#Comment_119198561

Lets see: a quick check (I’m not too proud to admit I can be wrong) tells me “a profound betrayal” is the meaning.

So the next step is to see how BJ did that. Cast your mind back to Varadkar meeting BJ at Liverpool. HoC in complete logjam. Tories split. All sorts of possibilities in the air. What do the ERG and BJ need: an election to get a majority. Varadkar does the deal, believing BJ will honour it. Key moment.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-barnier-liverpool-idUSKBN1WW1FB

What followed, from Wikipedia: “All three attempts to call an election failed to gain support: Parliament insisted that Johnson "take a no-deal Brexit off the table first" and secure a negotiated Withdrawal Agreement, expressed in particular by its enactment against his will of the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 (often called the "Benn Act", after Labour MP Hilary Benn, who introduced the bill). After failing to pass a revised deal before the first extension's deadline of 31 October 2019, Johnson agreed to a second extension on negotiations with the EU and finally secured a revised Withdrawal Agreement. Parliament agreed to an election through a motion proposed by the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party on 28 October.”

And there it is. BJ did the deal to secure a general election, use his great gift of convincing lies to win it and set about forcing the EU to accept the Tory version of Brexit or put a border in Ireland. This morning as the penny drops in Dublin we hear the claims of bad faith. Indeed. Sold down the river.

QED.