When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any particular reason for squaring the 80%? Sure why not cube it?

Anyway, assuming the 80% and 90% are accurate, that gives 72% will be immune. Exposure will also be much, much lower as the wider population also carry less viral load around.

I was referring to the adult population, which is about 80% of the population as a whole. Do you understand now?

Just for reference, the vaccine won’t be approved and ready to give to children until late in the year. So we can be pretty sure they won’t be vaccinated by the September deadline, wouldn’t you agree? So that means to get to 80% of the total population vaccinated by September, they plan to vaccinate 100% of the adult population. So they are highly unlikely to meet the 80% target. Wouldn’t you agree?

Pat D. Almighty

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ah ok.. you are on a wind up, best of luck!!

I'm not, you just didn't like the answer you got.

Gestureapo

dalyboy wrote: »

Exactly
There’ll zero support for restrictions come May/June.

All that’ll be left will be a few sociopathic nut jobs nodding away to their new found medical leaders while the rest of us move back to our normality

I wouldn't like to be depending on our lot

Like you said what happens elsewhere will effect change here

gozunda

GazzaL wrote: »

There are huge numbers of people who are ignoring restrictions at this stage. Any slight doubts I had about full normality resuming (e.g. the continued wearing of face masks) were quashed today by what I encountered.

As I said before, there are two parallel worlds in Ireland at the moment. If you think everyone is sat at home twidling their thumbs, think again.

Erm not quite sure what your saying there tbh. Is it that because there are some eejits ignoring restrictions at a time when infection rates were at an all time here - that you're going to do the same or ... ?

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They won't be much lower than last summer unless we put everyone in bubbles and nail us all into our homes.

I'm all for restrictions when they're needed as they are at the moment with high numbers. If we end up stuck in level 4/5 with numbers like last summer I'll be paying no heed whatsoever to most of the restrictions.

Selfish idiot

mmclo

glasso wrote: »

Here's an article from the economist on the slightly beyond near-term situation re the virus, vaccines and Covid.


Covid-19 may become endemic. Governments need to start thinking about how to cope

Bah, The Economist with their calm, well researched, rational perspective, I just talk to Joe!

SnuggyBear

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

Selfish idiot

You want people locked away when the cases are on the floor? What kind of madness is that.

saabsaab

dalyboy wrote: »

Exactly
There’ll zero support for restrictions come May/June.

All that’ll be left will be a few sociopathic nut jobs nodding away to their new found medical leaders while the rest of us move back to our normality

Quote from you a few months ago


'I just wonder , if there’s no significant deaths number increases by the end of August will people (even the sheep) start to ask “is this over”.

The government at this stage will be clutching at straws as it will be a clear casedemic (ref mr Cummins) NOT pandemic.

I always remember the end of the wizard of oz . ‘Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain” ....... the great government has spoken (and is a clown show)'


You were wrong then only now there are vaccines ( that you didn't believe in coming so soon)

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Anything to contribute beyond one line insults?

In this case? No, I think I summed by feelings up within the one line insult.

Pat D. Almighty

SnuggyBear wrote: »

You want people locked away when the cases are on the floor? What kind of madness is that.

Its the "kind of madness" that has worked to slow the spread in other countries. Why not give it a try?

markodaly

gansi wrote: »

Is that the same college that employed that guyfreguson that got all the modeling data wrong on predicted numbers and on top of that got caught with his trousers down breaking lockdown. Here’s hoping they're employing more credible people now!

What college did you and josip and everyone else go to, to study this in detail?

The college of boards.ie? :pac:

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Which countries have kept restrictions with low numbers?

New Zealand is one example. Certain parts of Australia too.

markodaly

Deleted User wrote: »

I haven't watched the video, but you do realise that "experts" in many fields have been completely wrong innumerable times throughout history? This is not an argument as to why josip is wrong (or right - he may well be full of it, as I said this is a general comment), it's a logical fallacy called "appeal to authority".

Also mathematicians of any sort have a tendency to model ideal conditions and forget about practical human considerations .... for example, everyone is immediately infected, no one has past immunity and the illness progresses exactly the same way in everyone, none of which is true. One of the big criticisms of the Imperial model was that they had no biologists on their team, only physical scientists. Biology is far more messy than physical science.

The need to "appeal to the common man" is also a fallacy.
It is fine to disagree with a scientist, but you must do so using something along the lines of peer-reviewed research or similar. Not one person has done this, not ONE. Instead, we have had comments about her colleague, the college itself, an earlier model, she may or may not have worked on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_probability

Just sayin, "Nah, I think she is wrong" from some gut feeling is just flat earther syndrome.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I was referring to the adult population, which is about 80% of the population as a whole. Do you understand now?

Just for reference, the vaccine won’t be approved and ready to give to children until late in the year. So we can be pretty sure they won’t be vaccinated by the September deadline, wouldn’t you agree? So that means to get to 80% of the total population vaccinated by September, they plan to vaccinate 100% of the adult population. So they are highly unlikely to meet the 80% target. Wouldn’t you agree?

Ah right so you were pulling numbers out of your arse. Got ya loud and clear.

Though why you go between adult and total population is strange, but not separate the elderly, almost like it's to suit your point.
For a disease which has basically no effect on children I think we can worry about vaccinating them once everyone else who wants to be sorted has been sorted.

Once we're in a position that we have a choice between another 3+ years naively trying to get to 0 cases ("under control" :rolleyes: ) or move on with a couple hundred deaths a year among people who've already lived well past median life expectancy then good luck to any government trying to choose the former.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ah right so you were pulling numbers out of your arse. Got ya loud and clear.

Though why you go between adult and total population is strange, but not separate the elderly, almost like it's to suit your point.
For a disease which has basically no effect on children I think we can worry about vaccinating them once everyone else who wants to be sorted has been sorted.

Once we're in a position that we have a choice between another 3+ years naively trying to get to 0 cases ("under control" :rolleyes: ) or move on with a couple hundred deaths a year among people who've already lived well past median life expectancy then good luck to any government trying to choose the former.

Lol. No.

Do you really not get it or just don’t want to acknowledge that you didn’t get it first time around?

I “go between” total population and adult population for a good reason. And that reason is that they’re the terms that government uses when they talk
about vaccination. Sometime they say total population and sometimes they say adult population.

Do you know the difference between total population and adult population? And do you know what it means in reference to the government September target?

beggars_bush

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Just stumbled upon this thread. Which is great!

Thank you to whoever started it and particularly to people who shared their experiences over the last few pages.

I WFH. I have a safe job. I am in a relationship.

Yet I absolutely hate my life. Absolutely nothing to do, at all. No end in sight. Last year we had summer to look forward to to travel, then we had xmas to look forward to. I spend 90% + in my home every week..

What have we got to look forward to this year?? getting 50-100 eur PCR tests per person prior to departure and then another 1 prior to arriving back? (hoping they are negative throughout)

As many here have posted already - we are not living.

Also am I the only 1 who finds Gardai at the airport asking citizens where they are going and whether their travel is essential absolutely bizarre? Are we actually being fined for leaving our country and or returning back? Speechless stuff.

I look forward to every day at home with the family
We go for walks, cycles, have fun around the house
We cook new meals, try out new recipes, teach the kids new skills
I've never got to spend so much time with them, its great in that way
And we WFH

GazzaL

gozunda wrote: »

Erm not quite sure what your saying there tbh. Is it that because there are some eejits ignoring restrictions at a time when infection rates were at an all time here - that you're going to do the same or ... ?

I'm saying that lots of people are currently breaking restrictions, and this is increasing. People who think things won't go back to normal are mistaken.

markodaly

markodaly wrote: »

What college did you and josip and everyone else go to, to study this in detail?

The college of boards.ie? :pac:

Seriously it’s been widely covered that the guy got it wrong. I’m actually past caring now and just like you and probably everyone else want to see a route out of this back to a properly functioning society which we don’t have right now and which isn’t good in the long term for any one of us.

ujjjjjjjjj

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They've had strong restrictions on travel while keeping most of the country open when numbers are low. Nothing at all like the extended level 5 we seem to be aiming for.

I'd be completely in favour of trying to go down the AUS/NZ route but there doesn't seem to be any appetite for it here.

Irish border........and the fact that the virus is endemic in our population.

Two reasons why it is not plausible.

josip

markodaly wrote: »

Yea, you are right. Professor Azra Ghani, Epidemiologist from Imperial College London, who studied Mathematics at Cambridge and is elected to the Academy of Medical Sciences, whose entire field of specialty is this subject, modelling outbreaks.... is wrong.

While you josip, random guy on boards.ie and the internet some other dudes are right.....

:P:pac::D;)

Funny you should mention it marko, but not only has she been wrong in the past, but she's admitted it.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/16/905285/uk-dropping-coronavirus-herd-immunity-strategy-250000-dead/

The Covid-19 Response Team based at Imperial College in London revealed on Monday that the government’s experts realized only over the last few days that its policy would “likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths”—potentially 250,000—and that the burden on health systems would exceed their capacities and resources by as much as eight times."

We were expecting herd immunity to build,” Azra Ghani, head of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College, told reporters Monday. “We now realize it’s not possible to cope with that.”

Quantum Baloney

Government have done plenty wrong IMO but at least they never made masks mandatory on the street which is at least a major thing we can be thankful for.

PTH2009

Quantum Baloney wrote: »

Government have done plenty wrong IMO but at least they never made masks mandatory on the street which is at least a major thing we can be thankful for.

weren't they mandatory over the Christmas period ?

wotzgoingon

This lockdown is starting to get to me real bad. It's fúcking mental that it's against the law to go to a location outside my 5 kms. My local town is just over the limit away from me.

I've being sticking to the lock down rules but this constant extension is the kicker. All throughout January I was saying another 3 weeks left or 2 weeks now and then an extension was brought in. We are still not over that extension period and they are talking about another extension. I'm cracking up.

gozunda

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Just stumbled upon this thread. Which is great!

Thank you to whoever started it and particularly to people who shared their experiences over the last few pages.

I WFH. I have a safe job. I am in a relationship.

Yet I absolutely hate my life. Absolutely nothing to do, at all. No end in sight. Last year we had summer to look forward to to travel, then we had xmas to look forward to. I spend 90% + in my home every week..

What have we got to look forward to this year?? getting 50-100 eur PCR tests per person prior to departure and then another 1 prior to arriving back? (hoping they are negative throughout)

As many here have posted already - we are not living.

Also am I the only 1 who finds Gardai at the airport asking citizens where they are going and whether their travel is essential absolutely bizarre? Are we actually being fined for leaving our country and or returning back? Speechless stuff.

Tbf eveyone has been asked not to engage in non essential travel. Its not personally directed at you. Perhaps best advice generally is to stay away from the airport / booking travel abroad - then there are no fines for travel there or back. Its not rocket science.

Tbf - a lot of criticism to the response been a non stop litany of groans from the start of the pandemic to present.

Whould we really prefer the UK system where it is currently Illegal to travel?

Just my two cents - but we are all in the same boat. Maybe for all of our peace of mind - take the time to learn a language. During the good weather spend time outside. During the summer pitch a tent in your garden if you have one. Take up a sport, activity and play some games with your oh. If you want to keep living life as best you can - it's up to you and no one else ...

bodhrandude

PTH2009 wrote: »

weren't they mandatory over the Christmas period ?

Yes but only in crowded shopping areas.

poisonated

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

New Zealand is one example. Certain parts of Australia too.

Is this the same New Zealand which just had a large music festival?

wotzgoingon

wotzgoingon wrote: »

This lockdown is starting to get to me real bad. It's fúcking mental that it's against the law to go to a location outside my 5 kms. My local town is just over the limit away from me.

I've being sticking to the lock down rules but this constant extension is the kicker. All throughout January I was saying another 3 weeks left or 2 weeks now and then an extension was brought in. We are still not over that extension period and they are talking about another extension. I'm cracking up.

It's not against the law. You can go to your local town for an essential reason. There's no law saying you can't go 5km away from your home.
With the amount of complaining people do, you would think they would know the laws.

Ginger n Lemon

gozunda wrote: »

Tbf eveyone has been asked not to engage in non essential travel. Its not personally directed at you. Perhaps best advice generally is to stay away from the airport / booking travel abroad - then there are no fines for travel there or back. Its not rocket science.

Tbf - a lot of criticism to the response been a non stop litany of groans from the start of the pandemic to present.

Whould we really prefer the UK system where it is currently Illegal to travel?

Just my two cents - but we are all in the same boat. Maybe for all of our peace of mind - take the time to learn a language. During the good weather spend time outside. During the summer pitch a tent in your garden if you have one. Take up a sport, activity and play some games with your oh. If you want to keep living life as best you can - it's up to you and no one else ...

Thank you. You are right. I have plenty of money to afford PCR tests... Hopefully I get to go to atleast 3 European countries this year and them PCR tests drop down in price to 25-50 eur.

I wouldnt want to be setting up a tent in my back garden. It sounds fun and very much a life changing experience, but its not for me.

Gestureapo

Thankfully we're part of the EU and neighbor to UK

Government here will have to fall in line with what's happening elsewhere with easing.

They won't be able to maintain draconian restrictions unnecessarily

dalyboy

Gestureapo wrote: »

Thankfully we're part of the EU and neighbor to UK

Government here will have to fall in line with what's happening elsewhere with easing.

They won't be able to maintain draconian restrictions unnecessarily

This is my exact mindset at the moment

I’ve turned off all Ireland media 100% (Irish media is beyond palpable since day one)

Just targeting Euro news now . If things are changing positively and progressively in regards to travel/reopening etc it’ll change 1st anywhere but Ireland.