When will it all end?

El_Duderino 09

Le Bruise wrote: »

Leo has said critical mass is 70-80% of the population vaccinated, to be done by September (Irish Times interview).

Donnelly has said that a critical mass of the adult population to be vaccinated by September but no percentages are mentioned (the independent article I linked above).

All caveated by things going well and according to plan.

So the wording changes on what exactly constitutes 'critical mass' but, irrespective of the numbers/percentages of population, my reading is that it's the point in which we can assume herd immunity and lift all restrictions.....September being the target.

It remains to be seen if we meet it (but I'm confident we will).

So critical mass might be 70-80% of the population or it might be something else and we don't know exactly what it is. Is that a fair assessment?

Where did you get that critical mass (whatever it is) will mean lifting all restrictions? Who said that would happen?

Samsonsmasher

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Do you know what the critical mass referred to in the article, is?

I couldn't care less

Ginger n Lemon

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Are they? What has been found?

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Where did it say that?

Maybe that will happen and if it does then, great.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Do you know what the critical mass referred to in the article, is?

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Where did you get that critical mass (whatever it is) will mean lifting all restrictions? Who said that would happen?

Interrogation :pac:

Are you in favour of lifting restrictions? I have this strange feeling I am alright Jack attitude here :pac:

Gestureapo

My observations

I'm thinking these people involved in the decision making are largely unaffected by restrictions themselves

There's also a large "I'm alright jack" / unsociable cohort of the population to whom mask wearing and SD and restrictions is immaterial

Also the PUP and lockdown is building up a crisis with drug and alcohol addiction

Ginger n Lemon

Gestureapo wrote: »

My observations

I'm thinking these people involved in the decision making are largely unaffected by restrictions themselves

There's also a large "I'm alright jack" / unsociable cohort of the population to whom mask wearing and SD and restrictions is immaterial

Also the PUP and lockdown is building up a crisis with drug and alcohol addiction

You are unfortunately correct on all of these.

Last 1 is most worrying.

In general I dont think people realize yet just how horrifying it is to have 15% unemployment base. For the next year or two or more. These people will eventually go to 200 euros a week and when they do its not going to be pretty.

Le Bruise

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Where did you get that critical mass (whatever it is) will mean lifting all restrictions? Who said that would happen?

Le bruise, circa 30 minutes ago

gozunda

dalyboy wrote: »

Considering that the vulnerable and elderly will be vaccinated by end of May or beginning of June we need to send a clear and precise message to NPHET, the government , pro downers and potty zero loon professor.

Pick a date , advertise it and cameras on the ready.

National HUGS day.
Human behaviour liberty party

Hug a granny , hug a granddad , hug a stranger , hug a vulnerable person etc.

Then send these photos to the RTE dooms day machine , NPHET, all the political parties , looney left etc

It’ll end when we say it ends. This could be could be the spark.

That's the best suggestion I've seen yet. Well done dalyboy!

I believe the Italians instigated something similar in the early days of the Pandemic there.

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1224661041495212032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1224661041495212032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-3984218153418800642.ampproject.net%2F2101300534005%2Fframe.html
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-05/People-in-Italy-encourage-China-in-fight-against-novel-coronavirus-NPqNkY17e8/index.html

I mean what could possibly go wrong :pac:

El_Duderino 09

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Interrogation :pac:

Are you in favour of lifting restrictions? I have this strange feeling I am alright Jack attitude here :pac:

I think it's fair to ask questions in a discussion forum. It's easy to get opinions from people, it has proven much harder to get people to articulate the reasoning behind them. Yer man from The Streets had a lyric " it's hard enough to remember my opinions, let alone the reasons for them". It's pretty apt to this situation.

But since you asked a question, which is a very reasonable thing to do in a discussion forum, I'll answer it.
I think your question is very broad so if you are asking if they should lift all restrictions now, then no, If you're asking if they should lift some restrictions soon, then yes. And i think it will come time to lift them soon. I imagine they will begin lifting restriction in the next while.

El_Duderino 09

Le Bruise wrote: »

Le bruise, circa 30 minutes ago

Ah, well as long as you're not expecting it to happen, then it's no bother.

As far as I know, nobody has said that we will be rid of restrictions if they hit the 70-80% target in September or the Critical mass" target - whatever that is.

So is it fair to say that neither of us are expecting them to lift all restrictions even if they hit the September target?

dalyboy

gozunda wrote: »

That's the best suggestion I've seen yet. Well done dalyboy!

I believe the Italians instigated something similar in the early days of the Pandemic there.

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1224661041495212032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1224661041495212032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-3984218153418800642.ampproject.net%2F2101300534005%2Fframe.html
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-05/People-in-Italy-encourage-China-in-fight-against-novel-coronavirus-NPqNkY17e8/index.html

I mean what could possibly go wrong :pac:

Oh ?
Did the Italians have a fully working vaccine back in the early days of the pandemic?

Please read my post again and read your reply.

Detail is lost on you yeah ?

dalyboy

gozunda wrote: »

That's the best suggestion I've seen yet. Well done dalyboy!

I believe the Italians instigated something similar in the early days of the Pandemic there.

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1224661041495212032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1224661041495212032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-3984218153418800642.ampproject.net%2F2101300534005%2Fframe.html
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-05/People-in-Italy-encourage-China-in-fight-against-novel-coronavirus-NPqNkY17e8/index.html

I mean what could possibly go wrong :pac:

Actually I presume that task may be too difficult so I’ll point out the detail for you.

Quote
“ Considering that the vulnerable and elderly will be vaccinated by end of May or beginning of June”
Duh ?

gozunda

dalyboy wrote: »

Oh ? Did the Italians have a fully working vaccine back in the early days of the pandemic? Please read my post again and read your reply. Detail is lost on you yeah ?

Protection from COVID-19

After having both doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, most people will be protected against the virus.

There is a small chance you might still get COVID-19 after vaccination. Even if you do get COVID-19, being vaccinated can reduce how serious your symptoms will be.

We do not know yet if being vaccinated stops you from spreading COVID-19 to other people.

The HSE, Department of Health and the World Health Organization recommends that you get your COVID-19 vaccine when it is offered to you.

Even after you are vaccinated, continue to follow public health advice on how to stop the spread of COVID-19. For example, social distancing, wearing a face covering and washing your hands properly and often.

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/immunity-covid-19-vaccine.html

There's no evidence that any of the current Covid-19 vaccines can completely stop people from being infected – and this has implications for our prospects of achieving herd immunity.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19


"Detail lost on you yeah ?"

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

That's the best suggestion I've seen yet. Well done dalyboy!

I believe the Italians instigated something similar in the early days of the Pandemic there.

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1224661041495212032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1224661041495212032%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-3984218153418800642.ampproject.net%2F2101300534005%2Fframe.html
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-05/People-in-Italy-encourage-China-in-fight-against-novel-coronavirus-NPqNkY17e8/index.html

I mean what could possibly go wrong :pac:

LOL What kind of woke PC BS is this?

Ginger n Lemon

I am off to UK.

:pac:

With so many vaccinated the pressure to re open is just well unbearable now. Boris needs to get a haircut and re open the economy.

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I agree we can't open up as normal without many people vaccinated.

What I don't understand is why all indications from Government at the moment are that this summer will be more restricted than last summer, when we had no vaccines at all.

I guess its called learning lessons from history.

Pat D. Almighty

Deleted User wrote: »

LOL What kind of woke PC BS is this?

Feel free to add more cliches to your snowflakery.

Silentcorner

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

I guess its called learning lessons from history.

It's actually the exact opposite of learning from history!!!

dalyboy

gozunda wrote: »

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/immunity-covid-19-vaccine.html



https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19


"Detail lost on you yeah ?"

It’s not me the detail is lost on.
Fact. Who gives a dam if we have 50k + per day infections once the vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated. The deaths and serious effects of infection will be next to NOTHING
This underlined detail cuts apart your weak / feeble position at the knees.

gozunda

dalyboy wrote: »

It’s not me the detail is lost on.
NOT A Fact. Who gives a dam if we have 50k + per day infections once the vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated. The deaths and serious effects of infection will be next to NOTHING. This underlined detail cuts apart your weak / feeble position at the knees.

FYP

Not my "position" btw. I dont write the health advice for the HSE. Here it is again - just in case you missed it.

Protection from COVID-19

After having both doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, most people will be protected against the virus.

There is a small chance you might still get COVID-19 after vaccination. Even if you do get COVID-19, being vaccinated can reduce how serious your symptoms will be.

We do not know yet if being vaccinated stops you from spreading COVID-19 to other people.

The HSE, Department of Health and the World Health Organization recommends that you get your COVID-19 vaccine when it is offered to you.

Even after you are vaccinated, continue to follow public health advice on how to stop the spread of COVID-19. For example, social distancing, wearing a face covering and washing your hands properly and often.

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/immunity-covid-19-vaccine.html

And yet oddly you wish to risk the elderly and vulnerable by suggesting those yet to be vaccinated go hug them?

dalyboy wrote:

Hug a granny , hug a granddad , hug a stranger , hug a vulnerable person etc.

Then send these photos to the RTE dooms day machine , NPHET, all the political parties , looney left etc

It’ll end when we say it ends. This could be could be the spark.

I'd say any of those who remain at risk no matter how small that risk is - plus their families and relatives would give a significant "Dam" if you try to hug someone just to get some stupid point scoring in.

Pat D. Almighty

Silentcorner wrote: »

It's actually the exact opposite of learning from history!!!

I think you might need to learn what the word opposite means.

Silentcorner

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

I think you might need to learn what the word opposite means.

Was there a single week, let alone month...no day, I'll take one day where a hospital in Ireland was swamped by Covid patients in Ireland between June -Sept?

GazzaL

There are huge numbers of people who are ignoring restrictions at this stage. Any slight doubts I had about full normality resuming (e.g. the continued wearing of face masks) were quashed today by what I encountered.

As I said before, there are two parallel worlds in Ireland at the moment. If you think everyone is sat at home twidling their thumbs, think again.

Pat D. Almighty

Silentcorner wrote: »

Was there a single week, let alone month...no day, I'll take one day where a hospital in Ireland was swamped by Covid patients in Ireland between June -Sept?

Was there not?

Pat D. Almighty

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Our case numbers were low all summer despite the easing of restrictions.

and this time they'll be even lower Learning is fun.

Silentcorner

Pat D. Almighty wrote: »

and this time they'll be even lower Learning is fun.

Ah ok.. you are on a wind up, best of luck!!

accensi0n

GazzaL wrote: »

There are huge numbers of people who are ignoring restrictions at this stage. Any slight doubts I had about full normality resuming (e.g. the continued wearing of face masks)

Really? 100% of people are still wearing masks in my local Dunne's.

Aph2016

When we start seeing the UK remove restrictions and get back to normal, I will enjoy watching the government squirm as the pressure mounts and the public demand restrictions are reduced.

GazzaL

accensi0n wrote: »

Really? 100% of people are still wearing masks in my local Dunne's.

I wasn't in Dunnes

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If only the world were so black/white. It's not a case that the vaccine is either 100% effective and 100% of people get the vaccine or else the vaccine is 0% effective and 0% uptake. The reality is likely to be that the vaccine is 90ish% effective and uptake is yet to be seen.

e.g. if 80% of the adult population get the vaccine by the time the weather gets cold towards the end of the year, then the calculation is something like the following.
80% of the adult population get a vaccine which is 90% effective =80%*80%*.90% = 58% immunity. So starting from that base at the start of the cold season would mean they could carry on continue to vaccinate more people into the winter.

That's a huge improvement on last year and would mean we could have much more contact and ewer restricti0ons next winter. And that's good. It's not a fairy tale, magic potion. But it's a realistic likely outcome.

Any particular reason for squaring the 80%? Sure why not cube it?

Anyway, assuming the 80% and 90% are accurate, that gives 72% will be immune. Exposure will also be much, much lower as the wider population also carry less viral load around.

dalyboy

Aph2016 wrote: »

When we start seeing the UK remove restrictions and get back to normal, I will enjoy watching the government squirm as the pressure mounts and the public demand restrictions are reduced.

Exactly
There’ll zero support for restrictions come May/June.

All that’ll be left will be a few sociopathic nut jobs nodding away to their new found medical leaders while the rest of us move back to our normality