FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

A very brief flirt with some moderately cold air before it laps back towards the continent.

I wouldn't be focusing on the temperatures at 850 hpa level too much for now - there is synoptic evolution to go here which will determine the depth of cold to be advected westward. We are on the cusp of something a bit special :cool:

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wouldn't be focusing on the temperatures at 850 hpa level too much for now - there is synoptic evolution to go here which will determine the depth of cold to be advected westward. We are on the cusp of something a bit special :cool:

I'm not focusing on it any more than everyone else who is posting 850 charts (but they're showing them in a good light, so it's ok). There will be a very warm sector over the UK and North Sea by the end of this week and that will need to be washed out before any talk of snow here. We should get some, but it will be brief.

Kermit.de.frog

Good to see a downward trend in temperature profile on the GFS ensembles. The op run was actually around average for the period of interest. Will this trend continue? We shall see.

12z





18z

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

We should get some, but it will be brief.

It could be but it may not be. Won't know for a couple of days I guess. I like what I see right now trend wise.

Rebelbrowser

Rougies wrote: »

Just for fun, who ordered this?


WARNING: NOT SAFE FOR DUBS!

I feel like singing De Banks looking at that that! It would be Corks greatest ever moment.....

I like the way the deepest colours end at the Waterford, Kerry, Tipp and Limerick borders. I suspect there's a Cork lad working for the ECMWF with a purple marker who was just having a laugh...

Tyrone212

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I feel like singing De Banks looking at that that! It would be Corks greatest ever moment.....

The real capital suits purple.

TheMilkyPirate

Some sort of model consensus finally beginning to show this morning. This is probably the wrong thread now as all +120 or before. GFS has the cold in by early Sunday morning



Arpege the same



UKMO +120



GEM +108



Eyes down for the ECM

Villain

Good morning from a nice ECM

Darwin

Good to see met eireann see the potential too:

Next week: Current indications suggest it will turn very cold next week with widespread frost and ice. Falls of sleet and snow are expected, especially in Leinster, with significant accumulations possible.

ZX7R

Jesus lad and lasses you robbed my little bit of cold from my area of Poland....
Enjoy it.

ninebeanrows

Nice EC! Would prefer better uppers at 144hrs though.

You know something is afoot when meteociel is struggling at 642am

ninebeanrows

The potential snow-storm at 192hrs to boot.

Kermit.de.frog

At some point Atlantic fronts are going to come up against entrenched very cold continental air. Definitely to be watched but when is completely unknown.

bazlers

I can see the build up thread getting updated. I dont think the frog could resist..:)

JanuarySnowstor

I keep harping on about heights not sustaining to our North. At 192hrs it looks like a massive snowstorm but look North and no decent heights over Greenland.
Just being picky but sorry it ain't a proper Easterly rather we benefit hugely from very cold air in Continental Europe

Villain

The ECM 850 temps for the auld archive:



Getting closer now but still a risk of some minor changes that could downgrade the depth of length of cold we see.

The risk of a breakthrough also brings the risk of a disruptive snow though with battleground setups appearing. Very interesting to watch this one unfold.

Meteorite58

Very cold charts from the ECM this morning. Full of intrigue. Currently showing the possibility of big frontal snow events later next week. Hard frosts each night and cold days. Certainly lots of possibilities for snow in the NE, E and SE earlier next week and could be more countrywide thereafter depending on how a large area of LP or depression tracks crossing the Atlantic towards and close to or over Ireland around next Thurs or Fri. Could even be classified as a storm and could get quite windy too but too early to know.

lucernarian

It's been very quiet in here given that the 06z GFS has rolled out - any updates for those of us not able to check it right now?

bosco12345

lucernarian wrote: »

It's been very quiet in here given that the 06z GFS has rolled out - any updates for those of us not able to check it right now?

Very quiet, come on lads, keep the eye candy rolling in so I can get even more hyped

bazlers

Feature of the altlantic lows possibly running a little further south.

Darwin

GFS 6z still cold/snowy Sunday onwards, but appears to bring things to an early end late Wednesday / early Thursday with the incursion of milder air from the south.

Longing

06z GFS is a bit of a downgrade stalls the cold and brings in the milder air in sooner aswell. Long term cold with this run is a no go.

Edit: Actually looking back on previous GFS 06 runs the GFS is like some of our politicians jumping from one party to the other

Reckless Abandonment

Gfs is very good . It continues the trend. The lows that end the party only have to drop more south to keep things very interesting. And as we've already seen the gfs has been correcting lows to the south all week.

Stevieluvsye

Yes, i'm of the opinion that it is good also. I can see this cold spell lasting the week (If not longer)

munsterlegend

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Gfs is very good . It continues the trend. The lows that end the party only have to drop more south to keep things very interesting. And as we've already seen the gfs has been correcting lows to the south all week.

The U.K. Met office are of a similar view.

TonyMaloney

The GEFS mean is looking very interesting. Lows sliding under, and sustained cold winds from the East so far.

TheMilkyPirate

I think we could say a 2-3 day easterly is looking pretty likely now if we have the same or better charts by this evening, obviously time to change still but the signal is strong for that at least. What I'd like to see now would be upgrades in the medium term say Wednesday to Thursday to look for any signs of the cold spell persisting.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

The U.K. Met office are of a similar view.

The GFS control for now seems to reflect the Mogrep- the UK in house model- view. The poster insisting it will be brief might be wrong.

TheMilkyPirate

ICON better at +120 on the 6z. Cold further south with lows under cutting

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

The GFS control for now seems to reflect the Mogrep- the UK in house model- view The poster insisting it will be brief might be wrong.

They have been calling this for 2 weeks now.