FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Kermit.de.frog

Like I was saying with the UKMO as well, any fronts coming up against continental airmass once it's established probably quickly turning to snow at least for a time.

But that's way out in cuckoo land. Lot's of changes to come.

Exciting eh?

TheMilkyPirate

How is the Arpege as a model? Verification wise.

esposito

John.Icy wrote: »

Aye if we could stall things as is on the ECM then great & snow will be about.

But as long as corrections are happening and run-to-run changes are occuring I will be very cautious. This could genuinely go down to 24-48 hours in terms of the cold pool. Winds from the East look more solid but how that low ends up will decide if very cold air is unleashed or if the low spins up some less cold air into the mix.

Exciting but tormenting runs ahead.

These lows that seem to crop up out of nowhere are very annoying and as we all know can ruin our chances of getting proper cold to our shores if they move too far north. This could be the longest week ever weather watching! It’s actually draining. Be so worth it though if things eventually work out.

Rebelbrowser

esposito wrote: »

These lows that seem to crop up out of nowhere are very annoying and as we all know can ruin our chances of getting proper cold to our shores if they move too far north. This could be the longest week ever weather watching! It’s actually draining. Be so worth it though if things eventually work out.

I was on a two hour work Zoom call from 5 to 7. Spent much of it worrying about the ECM! I was speaking the most so couldn't check my phone or my screen. Killer! Delighted now to see the ECM is holding - for now anyway. Is a United win v Southampton and a cracking 18z GFS too much to ask from the rest of my night?!

Arduach

Don't worry, be happy everyone. At the end of the day it's weather. Whatever the atmosphere is going to throw at us will happen. No point losing sleep or getting anxious.

Pop on here for the GFS, UKMO and ECM updates during the day. When you wake up see what the overnight runs are like. Live your life and do your thing for the rest of the day. Don't be wishing time away, life's too short.

Rebelbrowser

Arduach wrote: »

Don't worry, be happy everyone. At the end of the day it's weather. Whatever the atmosphere is going to throw at us will happen. No point losing sleep or getting anxious.

Pop on here for the GFS, UKMO and ECM updates during the day. When you wake up see what the overnight runs are like. Live your life and do your thing for the rest of the day. Don't be wishing time away, life's too short.

I'd normally agree but fretting over weather charts is a good way to spend time right now - the alternative is fretting about you know what....

Its a great distraction, but agree it matters very little ultimately. Apologies for going off topic...

Arduach

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I'd normally agree but fretting over weather charts is a good way to spend time right now - the alternative is fretting about you know what....

Its a great distraction, but agree it matters very little ultimately. Apologies for going off topic...

Sorry I'm off topic too Rebelbrowser. But try not to worry about either. Do all the right things with the other. Think to yourself, what useful things could I do to distract myself.. exercise, write, learn a new skill online etc. Weather model watching is ok when you get excited about it, but if it's causing anxiety that's not good.

Cw85

Last comment 2 hours ago is something broken?

munsterlegend

Cw85 wrote: »

Last comment 2 hours ago is something broken?

The pub run coming from 9 30 onwards. Stay tuned.

Villain

The ECM mean isn’t bad, certainly rising towards the end of the run and it is a little milder than yesterday. The Pub run will be fun I’m sure.

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Easterly wind from Russia to USA
y

Nope, easterly wind from southern Scandinavia only. This will not be a deeply rooted easterly.

Oneiric 3

Just to give a rough idea, a badly drawn line showing where the air mass from this potential easterly will be coming from:

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just to give a rough idea, a badly drawn line showing where the air mass from this potential easterly will be coming from:

Australia
By Gorrah!
Tasmania I hope,its a bit colder than Sydney:D

TheMilkyPirate

18Z ICON was a small upgrade on its 12Z better uppers at +120 and better positioned at the end of the run

Oneiric 3

Just looking at the temp profile from this evening's ECM, and the lowest it has for my location over the next 10 days is an incredible -2.0c. :rolleyes:

irishrover99

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just looking at the temp profile from this evening's ECM, and the lowest it has for my location over the next 10 days is an incredible -2.0c. :rolleyes:

Those bad vibes will ruin the easterly 🀣

Oneiric 3

irishrover99 wrote: »

Those bad vibes will ruin the easterly ��

Dublin is even worse. Doesn't even fall below zero!

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-2964574/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin%20City/Dublin

pad199207

This just sums up netweather

TheMilkyPirate

Netweather is poison I'll skim through looking for Singularity or Chinomaniac posts but that's about it. I think Feb1991 was right there though the 18Z certainly looks better

Gonzo

GFS 18z looks a shade better than the 12z, the low is further south by about 100 to 150 miles.

Kermit.de.frog

This is considerably better locally on the last run



No matter where it ends up it's an upgrade to 120. Cleaner, less interference.

TheMilkyPirate

I'd class that as a definite upgrade

pad199207

Not bad. Need to keep these wee upgrades going on the GFS

Gonzo

This is definitely looking better. At +126 hours the freezer is edging into Northern Ireland. On the 12z it was still only fringing into north east Scotland.

looks like i'll have to stay up for the entire run to complete and compare all the runs to the 12z.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS says yes

Rebelbrowser

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Is a United win v Southampton and a cracking 18z GFS too much to ask from the rest of my night?!

Yeah I suppose I'll reluctantly take a 9-0 and that GFS backtrack! Happy days....

Gonzo

I don't think the freezer is going to make it into the republic on this run, it's heading back north again by Tuesday. -9 uppers should be good enough for snow tho.

On the 12z we had -4 uppers by Tuesday.

mcburns07

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Yeah I suppose I'll reluctantly take a 9-0 and that GFS backtrack! Happy days....

:pac: Some win for us!

pad199207

A decent turn around on the GFS but it is the pub run and going by recent events the chances of it going downhill in the morning are very high.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

A decent turn around on the GFS but it is the pub run and going by recent events the chances of it going downhill in the morning are very high.

yep, almost every 00z over the past week have been poor except for maybe 1 or 2 of them. Going to be butterlies in the morning checking out wetterzentrale for all the model updates.