FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Slashermcguirk

No i get February is the coldest month statistically, I am just surprised that January doesn’t tend to be as consistently cold. Many of the snowfalls I can remember are latter half of February up to mid March. I can recall about 3-4 St Patrick’s days with snowfall or flurries since 2005. January is far less reliable than I would have thought it should be.

Anyway bring on some more upgrades hopefully.

compsys wrote: »

Not at all. There's always a time lag.

February is often the coldest month in a lot of northern hemisphere countries.

I think some of the confusion arises because many in Ireland regard February as spring.

But meteorologically speaking, February is very much a winter month, so there should be no surprise that it's often the coldest and snowiest

Also sea temps in Feb and March are at their lowest so for an island like us in particular it means we often get our coldest weather around this time of year.[/quote]

typhoony

compsys wrote: »

Not at all. There's always a time lag.

February is often the coldest month in a lot of northern hemisphere countries.

I think some of the confusion arises because many in Ireland regard February as spring.

But meteorologically speaking, February is very much a winter month, so there should be no surprise that it's often the coldest and snowiest.

Also sea temps in Feb and March are at their lowest so for an island like us in particular it means we often get our coldest weather around this time of year.[/quote]

Average temps are higher in Feb than Jan

Nqp15hhu

Calibos wrote: »

Touch and Go with the isobars on that last frame for me in Bray. Either I get lucky and have the longest sea fetch possible from Blackpool and Morecambe Bay for powerful streamers galore.....or......I have the shortest Sea fetch possible because of the Anglesey Shadow

It looks to be a straight easterly to me. Perhaps ENE.

nacho libre

Sea temps usually being at their coldest in Februray into March often tip the balance in our favour for snowfall. Where as these events in December and January can fall the wrong way because the sea temps are that bit higher. Another factor is the Atlantic tends to be quieter in Februray. Blocking conditions are more likely going into spring than in the early part of winter

Rebelbrowser

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I think even -20. Central Sweden and Norway are between -15 and -20 degrees this week with a lot of snow. Helsinki has been pounded recently too

I see even Berlin and Copenhagen much further south are also much colder this week than recent weeks and they are going much colder over the coming days

In terms of -15 uppers I'd say Jan 1987 hit that - around 12 or 13 Jan at a guess

Calibos

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It looks to be a straight easterly to me. Perhaps ENE.

Thats my point. Those wind directions indicated by the isobars put Bray on a knife edge where it could be a snow feast or a famine. ENE is what I want in Bray because it gives a 220km sea fetch whereas just a slight change in Wind direction to a straight Easterly gives me a 95km sea fetch with the Anglesey shadow ruining things.

Calibos

Calibos wrote: »

Thats my point. Those wind directions indicated by the isobars put Bray on a knife edge where it could be a snow feast or a famine. ENE is what I want in Bray because it gives a 220km sea fetch whereas just a slight change in Wind direction to a straight Easterly gives me a 95km sea fetch with the Anglesey shadow ruining things.

Its ENE which will probably be NE on the day

Artane2002

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

In terms of -15 uppers I'd say Jan 1987 hit that - around 12 or 13 Jan at a guess

I think the -16c isotherm crossed the west coast in 1987, mental!

Villain

Did I ever mention 23 is my favorite number

GEFS member 23 shown here just for the fun of it really but also shows how some members really go for it

Rebelbrowser

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think the -16c isotherm crossed the west coast in 1987, mental!

Yeah, that was the easterly by which all others will forever be judged. Never known cold like it.

Calibos

AuntySnow wrote: »

Its ENE which will probably be NE on the day

Great. An IOM Shadow instead of the Angelsey Shadow. :mad::mad:

:D

Zogabomb

Calibos wrote: »

Great. An IOM Shadow instead of the Angelsey Shadow. :mad::mad:

:D

Hey Calibos, I'm only down the road from you in Shankill and we did great in 2010 and 2018, we got a nice covering a few weeks back. I'm up the back of Brady's so not right on the coast but it always amazes me how even 1km can make a difference.

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think the -16c isotherm crossed the west coast in 1987, mental!

I remember back in January 1895 and i could distinctly see the upper air was purple over me. Yes i am a time traveller. The burden has been finally lifted revealing this!

or maybe it was from a chart Sryan posted in the historic winter thread:)

Calibos

Calibos wrote: »

Great. An IOM Shadow instead of the Angelsey Shadow. :mad::mad:

:D

None of those issues on the BBC news 24 graphics just now for Sunday
A clatter of snow from Dublin South to Wexford with a particular emphasis on Bray

TheMilkyPirate

ICON first of the 12Zs out and no surprises here

Villain

ICON first of the 12z out and its holding, maybe a little better

Villain

Certainly better far into FI!

TheMilkyPirate

Yeah much better than the 00Z, keeps the Atlantic at bay all the way to the end of the run

Arpege a belter out to 114 as well

Arduach

Gonzo wrote: »

I think we did from a bitter northerly during the Christmas holidays at one stage during the 90s. I can't remember the year, maybe Syran could shed more light on it. What I do remember is an intensely cold but dry and sunny cold spell, we had sub zero temperatures day and night. I remember Scotland in particular getting daytime highs below -20C but I think it was also dry there too. We had a snowy Christmas holiday event as well in 2000 I think but that spell was not quite as cold as it was an unstable easterly.

1995. Altnaharra -26.2C i think. 25-31 December serious cold blast.

pad199207

Ticking along nicely

Nqp15hhu

The cold air is a few hours later on this run of ICON.

Reckless Abandonment

Yeah a little slower and further north upto 102 hours on the gfs...

Rebelbrowser

Icon is great, Aperge is great (both mix in more of the Scandi air to my untrained eye) and GFS is keeping the lows of the southwest further at bay so should be excellent as it rolls out further. This is happening....

TheMilkyPirate

A little slower alright but looks to be better in the long run. Lows readily sliding under the block

ninebeanrows

Lovely UKM 144hr

Rebelbrowser

Streamers from Rathlin Island in the North to Mizen in the South by Monday morning on the Icon (with apologies for those in between affected by the IOM and Anglesea)!

BLIZZARD7

UKMO 12z is a snowfest and synoptically superb

Reckless Abandonment

Where is that big low going to go


pic upload

Kermit.de.frog

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Lovely UKM 144hr

The only issue I have with some of these runs, while synoptically very nice, is that sea based convective potential looks limited. I'd like to see lower heights generally. Low cloud tops, snow showers look light to moderate at best in the absence of some embedded trough lines.

Something like this...

TheMilkyPirate

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The only issue I have with some of these runs, while synoptically very nice, is that sea based convective potential looks limited. I'd like to see lower heights generally. Low cloud tops, snow showers look light to moderate at best in the absence of some embedded trough lines.

We'll take 4 days of light to moderate snow showers!