FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

looks good up to about Wednesday morning then the mild moves up from the south. It may only be a 2 to 3 day cold spell but right now i'll take it over the 06z and 12z.

Danno

Who ordered this? :cool:

Cork2021

Danno wrote: »

Who ordered this? :cool:

Me

Kermit.de.frog

Upgrades all round this evening including the GFS ensembles. Need this to continue.

Danno

24hrs later... :eek:

squarecircles

Danno wrote: »

Who ordered this? :cool:

Oh 0.5cm for me, exciting.

Danno

T'would bring a tear to y'er eye. :cool:

pad199207

Danno wrote: »

Who ordered this? :cool:

Kildare

Kermit.de.frog

Greater Dublin

Pangea

Danno wrote: »

T'would bring a tear to y'er eye. :cool:

Not me, I'm in the grey

Gonzo

I would really like to see more upgrades by the morning on both the ECM and GFS as well as the other models. We've had more than enough downgrades over the past two days. We've had some minor but important upgrades this evening but I would like more in terms of long fetch source and duration of event. If we could get back to where we were at yesterdays 12z by tomorrow evening and hold it there for consistency and cross model agreement.

However I've a feeling this rollercoaster still has some ways to go.

Kermit.de.frog

Mean 850hpa temps gone sub -8 for most by day 6

spoonerhead

Seems to me like we are looking for the end before the event has even started. GFS and ECM have been fantastic today, rebounding on some worries we started to see yesterday. Shouldn’t be looking past this weekend with any certainty, given the ECM in particular will want to pull milder air back at the nearest opportunity

snowstorm445

If only that sodding low would push a bit further south, you'll all be up to your necks in snow drifts and I'll be caught in the cold rain I guess after all the times Ireland has been left on the mild side of an easterly it's time the tables were flipped.

Danno

Danno wrote: »

Who ordered this? :cool:

Aunty

lucernarian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Mean 850hpa temps gone sub -8 for most by day 6

The problem I have is the past two days have been about posts showing -8 and colder "on day 6". I'd really really like to see some solid charts coming in at t+96

Arduach

I often think weather forecasting and models are a bit like snooker. Where the cue ball goes after a pot can determine the whole frame.

Likewise when and where a low pressure etc moves at 96hrs can determine the weather for the next 4 or 5 days.

typhoony

my advice would be to wait until Thursday evening, the models are only just now getting a handle on the Energy exiting the US that will affect us mid-week

Rougies

Danno wrote: »

Who ordered this? :cool:

That's the control run. Sneaky ramp, I like it!

Kermit.de.frog

GFS control run follows almost the exact same trajectory as the OP but is a longer lived event...





Lots of chopping and changing to come over the next couple of days.

TTLF

quick question but with the 18Z when would you start to expect streamers off the sea? Sunday? (not sure if there is any, might be a tint to the isobars but idk)

esposito

typhoony wrote: »

my advice would be to wait until Thursday evening, the models are only just now getting a handle on the Energy exiting the US that will affect us mid-week

How worried would you be about this energy entering the Atlantic from the snowstorms on east coast US? It’s not a certainty that it will fire up the jet is it? And if it does, could the low pressure systems diverge south into Iberia and miss us altogether. Trying to be positive...

Danno

TTLF wrote: »

quick question but with the 18Z when would you start to expect streamers off the sea? Sunday? (not sure if there is any, might be a tint to the isobars but idk)

This would be the start of it:



110hrs...

Rougies

Just for fun, who ordered this?


WARNING: NOT SAFE FOR DUBS!

TheMilkyPirate

A very informative piece on lake effect snow I found while looking up optimal fetch for streamers, It's an interesting read

http://stream1.cmatc.cn/pub/comet/WinterWeather/oceansnowcase/comet/norlat/snow/lake_effect/1_lo_snow_basic_ingredients.htm

kittyn

pad199207 wrote: »

Kildare

I’m buried in that chart ....... lol

Gaoth Laidir

A very brief flirt with some moderately cold air before it laps back towards the continent.

Gonzo

I would like the GFS Control run to be the Operational run by the morning.



Almost a week of streamers by this point and it's still updating.

nacho libre

esposito wrote: »

How worried would you be about this energy entering the Atlantic from the snowstorms on east coast US? It’s not a certainty that it will fire up the jet is it? And if it does, could the low pressure systems diverge south into Iberia and miss us altogether. Trying to be positive...

The jestream forecast by day 9 or 10 looks like this could be happening as it has gone from menadering to flattening out and heading over us. That to me suggests that robust low pressure systems wil be heading for us rather than sliding.

TheMilkyPirate

Gonzo wrote: »

I would like the GFS Control run to be the Operational run by the morning.



Almost a week of streamers by this point and it's still updating.

And a couple of undercutting lows to boot. A gem of a run