FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Reversal

squarecircles wrote: »

This thread would drive you to depression.

Indeed, in reality, GFS and GEM have shifted the pattern South and lessened the problem low that was blowing over the UK on the GFS last night and this morning. Small margins in it we need it to keep trending in the direction but it at least it is.

Arduach

At this time our thoughts and prayers are with Little Snowy Old Me

sicknotexi

It's amazing how the ECM flipped then the GFS immediately starts churning out terrible runs. Someones having a laugh at our expense.

nacho libre

GEM is the best so far. The GFS is an improvement from its earlier run. The UKMO looks like a feast or famine situation in its latter stages. Will we get systems disrupting or will the evil:pac: Atlantic get back in swiftly

munsterlegend

Met Office update still very wintry so would wait for the king model in this part of the world the ECM before getting too deflated.

NMB

Slow climb back from the GFS - probably even better tomorrow. Doubt we will be out of the woods - this is going to go down to the wire. Delicate setup to get the right cold in but still possible even with a meeting in the middle of the models. Loving the polarcoaster. It’s a cure for depression!!

Gaoth Laidir

I did say it, we are on the periphery of any cold pool and any cold would be fleeting at best. Still scope for some improvements but the odds were always stacked against us without a prolonged Svalbard high.

Cw85

Why is everyone so disheartened with one bad run? They have been changing every couple of days. It's still 6 days away so anything can happen

Slashermcguirk

I agree, it’s still all very much to play for. Next couple of days could see more back and forth. Still good potential there

Cw85 wrote: »

Why is everyone so disheartened with one bad run? They have been changing every couple of days. It's still 6 days away so anything can happen

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

Met Office update still very wintry so would wait for the king model in this part of the world the ECM before getting too deflated.

It is, but i can see it changing again to something less promising,especially if the ECM run is not great.

Rebelbrowser

Nothing of any solace on those charts unless you are excited by a 1917 style Munster blizzard....:):):):)

Who knows, and I am possibly talking out of my butt here, but maybe a battleground situation between cold and the Atlantic will lead to massive blizzards for days on end.

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

It is, but i can see it changing again to something less promising,especially if the ECM run is not great.

It has been calling this easterly for a long time now. Now it could happen we are too far west but they as others have said don’t just rely on the models.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

Who knows, and I am possibly talking out of my butt here, but maybe a battleground situation between cold and the Atlantic will lead to massive blizzards for days on end.

If Kermit leads a snow dance it might happen. I see the GFS OP run is on the milder side of its members. The UKMO could lead to a significant snow event also, but then again probably not. it would be super if we could just get one 24 - 36 hour snowfall before this winter is out. I've never seen a red warning for snow in connacht. I'd die a happy man if that happened before winter was out

Rebelbrowser

Deleted User wrote: »

Who knows, and I am possibly talking out of my butt here, but maybe a battleground situation between cold and the Atlantic will lead to massive blizzards for days on end.

That hasn't happened in so long we forget it is a possibility - but it is! Just like we never thought we'd see an Ophelia or a Storm Emma. But statistically these do happen every now again - and right now it is exactly what the GEM is showing. We very, very, understandably see the encroachment of the Atlantic on to pre-existing cold as bad news (99.9% of the time it is bad news) but one of these days....

Who is to say that day won't be next Tuesday or Wednesday?!

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

If Kermit leads a snow dance it might happen. I see the GFS OP run is on the milder side of its members. The UKMO could lead to a significant snow event also, but then again probably not. it would be super if we could just get one 24 - 36 hour snowfall before this winter is out. I've never seen a red warning for snow in connacht. I'd die a happy man if that happened before winter was out

didn't the BFTE have a nationwide red warning?

typhoony

Cw85 wrote: »

Why is everyone so disheartened with one bad run? They have been changing every couple of days. It's still 6 days away so anything can happen

The reason is that it's the first time in a few days that ECM and GFS have agreed.

Rebelbrowser

Artane2002 wrote: »

didn't the BFTE have a nationwide red warning?

If so that means you can die now nacho:pac:

Rebelbrowser

typhoony wrote: »

The reason is that it's the first time in a few days that ECM and GFS have agreed.

Em, the ECM's last offering is an epic easterly? could change shortly obviously...

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

didn't the BFTE have a nationwide red warning?

Did it? I was not here for that. Was there much snow in the northwest from it?

JCX BXC

DOCARCH wrote: »

I wouldn't necessarily call it rubbish. I often glance forecast on XC Weather, which is also GFS based, and it can be quite accurate (some of the time).

All models have there plus and minus and key is not to rely on one.

The particular one I'm discussing, the netweather one, is from my experience, total rubbish. It very regularly shows snow here which next to never materialises.

I'm not talking about the GFS as a whole, simply that particular chart on that particular website.

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

Did it? I was not here for that. Was there much snow in the northwest from it?

if I remember correctly, the east and south were under a red warning for Storm Emma while the rest of the country had a red warning for snow showers. parts of Donegal did well from streamers from what I remember, I'm not too sure about how your part of the country did though.

to keep this post on topic, I think it's best to ignore the GFS until the UKMO and/or ECM show something similar. The GFS ensembles are a bit better than the last few sets too.

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

if I remember correctly, the east and south were under a red warning for Storm Emma while the rest of the country had a red warning for snow showers. parts of Donegal did well from streamers from what I remember, I'm not too sure about how your part of the country did though.

to keep this post on topic, I think it's best to ignore the GFS until the UKMO and/or ECM show something similar. The GFS ensembles are a bit better than the last few sets too.

Yes. It's encouraging to see the GFS op is a mild outlier

JCX BXC

nacho libre wrote: »

Did it? I was not here for that. Was there much snow in the northwest from it?

Storm Emma had a nationwide red warning, Northwest in particular parts of mayo got very little snow however.

US2

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS get's worse as it goes along, mild air up from the south, we ain't going to tap into that cold at all. Looks like the Atlantic is going to break through soon enough with that low from the USA getting much closer to us.

I hope you're right. A Saharan breeze until March would be ideal .

Seymour20

When is the ECM due out ?

nacho libre

Seymour20 wrote: »

When is the ECM due out ?

Just after 6

Rebelbrowser

about 6.45pm before it finishes

TheMilkyPirate

We've had the GEM come back onboard today and the Arpege join the party too. The ECM was good this morning as it was yesterday evening and we also have the UKMO on board. The GFS is on its own really so plenty of reason to be up beat about seeing snow at some stage over the next week.

Keep the faith, without that we are nothing. :pac:

Little snowy old me

nacho libre wrote: »

Did it? I was not here for that. Was there much snow in the northwest from it?

There was zero snow from BFTE 2018 in SW Donegal. A few sleety showers beforehand for 1 or 2 days but none settled here in my locality. Very little snow in Co. Sligo either. It was cold but nothing exceptional.